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DaveF

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Everything posted by DaveF

  1. DaveF
    Another glimmer of hope from the EC46:
  2. DaveF
    CoventryWeather Indeed the MSLP ECM ensembles from the 00Z run are very encouraging with lots of members going anticyclonic. Waiting with interest for the 12Z output. Somewhat supported by GEM (especially the OP). But GFS is having none of it. Really marked contrast between the GFS and ECM ensembles.
  3. DaveF
    Some info on the Met Office models not updating:
  4. DaveF
    No output from UKMO 0Z yet, and UKV (normally every 3 hours) hasn’t updated since the 18Z run. Anyone have any insight?
  5. DaveF
    Almost no sunshine on offer right across the UK this coming week. Some glimpses on Friday in some areas but that's about it. Not sure I've ever seen a chart like this for Tuesday:
  6. DaveF
    And 20Z looking extremely nasty for Cumbria and the Scottish border area.
  7. DaveF
    UKV has really increased the Monday 00Z wind gusts in the 15Z run (first image) compared to the 03Z run (second image). Looks like his is going to be a major storm, especially where I am in NW Wales. It's suggesting gusts of 80-90mph even in the Midlands.
  8. DaveF
    I think you’re misreading the plot. It’s not showing temperature, it’s showing the westerly component of stratospheric wind. An SSW leads to this falling below zero (reversal to easterly). The OP refers to the GEFS which is the green. Red is not an average, it is what happened last year.
  9. DaveF
    This looks really nasty:
  10. DaveF
    Extreme winds over SW Ireland if this validates. Then another similar compact low the day after approaching Cornwall.
  11. DaveF
    UKMO 12Z and UKV 15Z showing a nasty looking compact low on Monday. GFS, ECM and GEM have it weaker and further north. Potential for strong winds but clearly there's uncertainty.
  12. DaveF
    Sadly a bit of an outlier. But the ensemble mean is at 1020mb, and a good few members do reach 1030.
  13. DaveF
    Also yayyyy:
  14. DaveF
    That’s plausible because ensemble means a few days out will tend to underestimate peak wind speeds for a compact fast moving low, when the average is taken over different tracks. I’ve noticed more generally that the wind speeds in the Met Office spot forecasts tend to be underestimated a few days ahead and become stronger closer to the time.
  15. DaveF
    Looks to me like we have a pretty consistent signal across all models from the 12Z runs. The centre of the low looks like it is going to track over Northern Ireland and Scotland, with severe winds on the south side, affecting Ireland, Wales, Northern England and Southern Scotland.
  16. DaveF
    That information is surely out of date because from what I can find on the Met Office website the NAE model has been retired and the global model is now 10km resolution: Numerical weather prediction models WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK The Met Office uses the Unified Model as part of several operational Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) systems to support the production of its weather forecasts.
  17. DaveF
    I've noticed this too - not just for this storm but generally. But it is particularly striking in this case. The Met Office spot forecast for Holyhead is showing maximum gusts of only 38mph on Wednesday but UKV has 83mph. Anyone know what the Met Office spot forecasts are based on if not UKMO/UKV?
  18. DaveF
    They are high resolution, but they only cover a small area, especially UKV which covers only UK and Ireland. And the storm only enters the area covered by UKV and ICON on Wednesday, so the track up to then has to come from lower resolution models. I assume the UKV uses UKMO for what is happening outside the UK region. So although UKV is good for fine detail - local effects of coasts and hills, the resolution does not help with the track of the storm across the Atlantic.
  19. DaveF
    All the models are showing this. It really does look exceptionally nasty. UKV charts from netweather.tv:
  20. DaveF
    Can anyone enlighten me as to why the EC46 regime chart shows blocking over the weekend, while an Atlantic low moves through with westerly winds? The description for the red regime is "Scandinavian Blocking", but the low extends over Scandinavia over the weekend.
  21. DaveF
    This looks hopeful. High pressure looking likely from 4th August.
  22. DaveF
    Some more hopeful signals (all correlated with the above since from the same run): Height and wind anomalies and time-longitude plot suggest high pressure centred over the UK / North Sea late August-early September. Maybe this summer will be good early and late with a terrible middle.
  23. DaveF
    ECM Extended Range has been fairly consistently predicting blocked regime + positive MLSP anomalies for late August since a week ago, but this is the strongest indication yet. Let's hope it holds. Could all collapse in the next run of course...
  24. DaveF
    Some hope from the ECMWF Extended Range. Blocked regime and positive MSLP anomalies from 7th August onwards.
  25. DaveF
    What parameters are shown in each of the three columns of plots?
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