[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Another glimmer of hope from the EC46:

 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 CoventryWeather Indeed the MSLP ECM ensembles from the 00Z run are very encouraging with lots of members going anticyclonic. Waiting with interest for the 12Z output. Somewhat supported by GEM (especially the OP). But GFS is having none of it. Really marked contrast between the GFS and ECM ensembles.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Some info on the Met Office models not updating:

 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

No output from UKMO 0Z yet, and UKV (normally every 3 hours) hasn’t updated since the 18Z run. Anyone have any insight?

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Almost no sunshine on offer right across the UK this coming week. Some glimpses on Friday in some areas but that's about it. Not sure I've ever seen a chart like this for Tuesday:

[Storm Isha, Amber ⚠️]

1 hour ago, LewisMcCallum said:

UKV 21Z looking particularly nasty for west of Scotland. Would expect some more amber warnings up north by tomorrow if that holds.

And 20Z looking extremely nasty for Cumbria and the Scottish border area.

 

[Model Output Discussion - Cold spell ending - what next?]

UKV has really increased the Monday 00Z wind gusts in the 15Z run (first image) compared to the 03Z run (second image). Looks like his is going to be a major storm, especially where I am in NW Wales. It's suggesting gusts of 80-90mph even in the Midlands.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

52 minutes ago, snowspotter said:

Presume we’re looking at the average red dotted line ? If so believe it shows a warming (moderate) early January ? Am. Correct . The purple line obviously goes off on one but not until April so that’s no use 

I think you’re misreading the plot. It’s not showing temperature, it’s showing the westerly component of stratospheric wind. An SSW leads to this falling below zero (reversal to easterly). The OP refers to the GEFS which is the green. Red is not an average, it is what happened last year.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

This looks really nasty:

 

 

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

Extreme winds over SW Ireland if this validates. Then another similar compact low the day after approaching Cornwall.

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

UKMO 12Z and UKV 15Z showing a nasty looking compact low on Monday. GFS, ECM and GEM have it weaker and further north. Potential for strong winds but clearly there's uncertainty.

[Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards]

30 minutes ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

Looks like the ridge pattern looks pretty formidable and could sustain itself.    By the way does this have support of the ECM clusters?

Sadly a bit of an outlier. But the ensemble mean is at 1020mb, and a good few members do reach 1030.

[Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards]

10 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Yayyyy 

Also yayyyy:

 

[Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards]

8 minutes ago, Cheshire Freeze said:

I think it’s an ensemble blend beyond a couple of days. Not 100% sure though.

That’s plausible because ensemble means a few days out will tend to underestimate peak wind speeds for a compact fast moving low, when the average is taken over different tracks. I’ve noticed more generally that the wind speeds in the Met Office spot forecasts tend to be underestimated a few days ahead and become stronger closer to the time.

[Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards]

Looks to me like we have a pretty consistent signal across all models from the 12Z runs. The centre of the low looks like it is going to track over Northern Ireland and Scotland, with severe winds on the south side, affecting Ireland, Wales, Northern England and Southern Scotland.

[Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards]

19 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

From the Met Office web site re the models

The principal weather products for UK customers are 36-hour forecasts from the operational 1.5 km resolution UKV model covering the UK and surroundings (replacing the 4 km model), 48-hour forecasts from the 12 km resolution NAE model covering Europe and the North Atlantic, and 144-hour forecasts from the 25 km resolution global model (replacing the 40 km global model).

That information is surely out of date because from what I can find on the Met Office website the NAE model has been retired and the global model is now 10km resolution:

Numerical weather prediction models

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

---

The Met Office uses the Unified Model as part of several operational Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) systems to support the production of its weather forecasts.

[Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards]

1 hour ago, StingJet said:

Interesting the MetO spot forecasts appears to be more aligned with the less intense ECM solution 

I've noticed this too - not just for this storm but generally. But it is particularly striking in this case. The Met Office spot forecast for Holyhead is showing maximum gusts of only 38mph on Wednesday but UKV has 83mph. Anyone know what the Met Office spot forecasts are based on if not UKMO/UKV?

[Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards]

2 hours ago, Harveyslugger said:

Icon also with ukv and aren't they both higher resolution than gfs and ecm?does that mean more reliable?

They are high resolution, but they only cover a small area, especially UKV which covers only UK and Ireland. And the storm only enters the area covered by UKV and ICON on Wednesday, so the track up to then has to come from lower resolution models. I assume the UKV uses UKMO for what is happening outside the UK region. So although UKV is good for fine detail - local effects of coasts and hills, the resolution does not help with the track of the storm across the Atlantic.

[Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards]

2 hours ago, Porto said:

12z GFS still holding onto this storm heading in next Wednesday, definitely something to keep an eye on as soon-to-be Ophelia generates just off the US east coast which this storm spawns from

All the models are showing this. It really does look exceptionally nasty. UKV charts from netweather.tv:

[Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards]

Can anyone enlighten me as to why the EC46 regime chart shows blocking over the weekend, while an Atlantic low moves through with westerly winds? The description for the red regime is "Scandinavian Blocking", but the low extends over Scandinavia over the weekend.

[Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards]

This looks hopeful. High pressure looking likely from 4th August.

[Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards]

Some more hopeful signals (all correlated with the above since from the same run): Height and wind anomalies and time-longitude plot suggest high pressure centred over the UK / North Sea late August-early September. Maybe this summer will be good early and late with a terrible middle.

[Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards]

ECM Extended Range has been fairly consistently predicting blocked regime + positive MLSP anomalies for late August since a week ago, but this is the strongest indication yet. Let's hope it holds. Could all collapse in the next run of course...

[Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards]

Some hope from the ECMWF Extended Range. Blocked regime and positive MSLP anomalies from 7th August onwards.

[Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards]

40 minutes ago, Frigid said:

All this blocking we currently have will be non-existent come winter. As of now, it doesn't look great if you want warmth. Equivalent of raging south-westerlies in the winter. 

ECM Weekly Anomalies paints a grim picture for the rest of July:                           

Week 1:   

Week 2:   

Week 3:   

The trend so far this decade has been warmer Augusts (see 2020/2022), maybe we'll see a resurgence of warmth then. Or earlier cause these anomalies were showing warmer last week, look where they are now.. 

What parameters are shown in each of the three columns of plots?