parhelion

cheese Good for them, but it has no bearing on us today. We'll see what the day brings... all about the nowcast today Good luck everyone.

Ah, so something none of us can verify then?

Yep, a solid set of GEFS and I'm not sure where Kasim's 50/50 was coming from. Once again very confusing.

That's very harsh on Ben. The fact is recent operationals from the GFS have been out of kilter with its own suite and not in a consistent 'latching on to new trend' way either. It's more than fair to be sceptical.

I don't know what you've been looking at, but they aren't the ensembles that's for sure! In fact, based only on your post, I'd say you were looking exclusively at the more recent GFS operationals. Unfortunately the model thread is increasingly full of the usual suspects seeing a wobble from the GFS (which ain't the best model) at 200-and-something-hours and thinking it's all gone wrong. At least there's some balance in there from the more experienced and level-headed posters who can see the wider picture.

The potential for a more substantial settling event was during the early hours. I'm treating any little flurry now as a bonus really.

It is not a supercell.

fyi, don't send yourselves insane by looking at symbol forecasts and their many updates this evening. Nowcast now all the way

ARPEGE staying consistent with its previous output, even with the lighter flurries mainly over the hills this evening before the more organised stuff makes it in from Wales later on tonight. Worth mentioning too that the front pushing up during the wee hours of Monday also turns to snow on its northern edge for a good few hours across the N Mids and parts of S Yorks and Lincs. I expect that'll be much more marginal though.

cautiously optimistic about tonight with the ARPEGE especially looking wintry for us. The frost is gorgeous today, too. A very pretty cold spell

UKV looks worse for E Yorks and north of the Humber with little in the way of significant rain reaching here. ARPEGE not bringing a whole lot either, not that it would take too much to potentially trigger flooding for some.

Worrall Road is flooded, usual spots partially flooded too like Eccy Road south, Endcliffe Park, Kelham Island, Carbrook, Ecclesfield ... It's not as dire as Chesterfield but there are a lot of traffic issues and blocked roads as you can imagine.

After a lighter lull, rain has picked up again around Sheffield

Anyone think warnings could/should be updated in the coming hour?

Radar looks insane doesn't it? Just a conveyor belt of rain