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parhelion

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Everything posted by parhelion

  1. parhelion
    cheese Good for them, but it has no bearing on us today. We'll see what the day brings... all about the nowcast today Good luck everyone.
  2. parhelion
    Ah, so something none of us can verify then?
  3. parhelion
    Yep, a solid set of GEFS and I'm not sure where Kasim's 50/50 was coming from. Once again very confusing.
  4. parhelion
    That's very harsh on Ben. The fact is recent operationals from the GFS have been out of kilter with its own suite and not in a consistent 'latching on to new trend' way either. It's more than fair to be sceptical.
  5. parhelion
    I don't know what you've been looking at, but they aren't the ensembles that's for sure! In fact, based only on your post, I'd say you were looking exclusively at the more recent GFS operationals. Unfortunately the model thread is increasingly full of the usual suspects seeing a wobble from the GFS (which ain't the best model) at 200-and-something-hours and thinking it's all gone wrong. At least there's some balance in there from the more experienced and level-headed posters who can see the wider picture.
  6. parhelion
    The potential for a more substantial settling event was during the early hours. I'm treating any little flurry now as a bonus really.
  7. parhelion
    It is not a supercell.
  8. parhelion
    fyi, don't send yourselves insane by looking at symbol forecasts and their many updates this evening. Nowcast now all the way
  9. parhelion
    ARPEGE staying consistent with its previous output, even with the lighter flurries mainly over the hills this evening before the more organised stuff makes it in from Wales later on tonight. Worth mentioning too that the front pushing up during the wee hours of Monday also turns to snow on its northern edge for a good few hours across the N Mids and parts of S Yorks and Lincs. I expect that'll be much more marginal though.
  10. parhelion
    cautiously optimistic about tonight with the ARPEGE especially looking wintry for us. The frost is gorgeous today, too. A very pretty cold spell
  11. parhelion
    UKV looks worse for E Yorks and north of the Humber with little in the way of significant rain reaching here. ARPEGE not bringing a whole lot either, not that it would take too much to potentially trigger flooding for some.
  12. parhelion
    Worrall Road is flooded, usual spots partially flooded too like Eccy Road south, Endcliffe Park, Kelham Island, Carbrook, Ecclesfield ... It's not as dire as Chesterfield but there are a lot of traffic issues and blocked roads as you can imagine.
  13. parhelion
    After a lighter lull, rain has picked up again around Sheffield
  14. parhelion
    Anyone think warnings could/should be updated in the coming hour?
  15. parhelion
    Radar looks insane doesn't it? Just a conveyor belt of rain
  16. parhelion
    Yes it really looks set in now
  17. parhelion
    That 'gap' north of Cambridge already showing signs of filling in as it all arcs north and west Looking towards Lincs for the next batch though.
  18. parhelion
    It's meant to consistently reinvigorate from the south through today, unfortunately. Here's the ARPEGE, which has been one of the more consistent outputs in the last few days...
  19. parhelion
    Several heavy pulses of rain overnight, and raining heavily now, too. Seems from local stations there is some variance, with the figures so far since midnight heading towards the 1 inch mark at a pace.
  20. parhelion
    Similar places still get the prolonged rainfall, however. It will be interesting to see what the radar looks like in the morning as we move increasingly towards a nowcast event.
  21. parhelion
    I've read that the crazy high River Don projection is a bit anomalous and dubious compared to the estimations from other hotspots across the city
  22. parhelion
    ARPEGE 12z accumulations in line with the latest Met Office warnings. Looks awful for here tomorrow, and with those river projections @Josh Rubioposted earlier, there is potential for some really serious impact here.
  23. parhelion
    Models show E Scotland as the hot spot for the highest rainfall totals. Not beyond the realms of possibility that we go red warning up there and perhaps a more localised amber for other high-total areas.
  24. parhelion
    ARPEGE has similar totals for E Scotland as well so the agreement is there for a serious event. Over two inches across a significant portion of N and E England, too.
  25. parhelion
    The south doing very well again today
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