WeatherEnthusiast

Met office are sitting on the fence a little they just say in their latest update that it will be changeable from Wednesday with weather fronts mostly affecting Northern UK but that everywhere will get lower temperatures and feeling fresher. There could be thundery rain ahead of the coming cold front. Further forward, Southern England is likely to be "drier" as its obviously closer to the High which is migrating East, with the possibility of overnight fog. The general trend beyond this (3rd week and last week of September) is that pressure is likely to be higher than normal and there could still be the possibility of unseasonable warmer spells. However there will still be wet spells at times (mostly showers). Temperatures may be generally above average values expected in Late September and early October.

Turning unsettled next week

I wont be troublesome during winter I will however be on the hunt for strong high pressure systems and severe frosts (but not snow as i hate it)

I dont want to get into a row with fellow Netweather colleagues but there is no denying that the low does persist for 4 - 5 days if you look it just spirals around right over the UK! Temps on the 21st only 8 to 16.

The GFS 00Z run are showing the lows from D10 to D16 and persisting

Hot but turning increasingly unsettled as we see high level thunderstorms followed by more widespread storms. Could be a lot of thundery activity this weekend. Air pollution forecast for Saturday is extremely bad.

A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the far eastern Atlantic between the Cabo Verde Islands and the west coast of Africa. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form later this week or this weekend while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the eastern tropical Atlantic. This system is expected to move across the Cabo Verde Islands tonight and Thursday. Tropical Storm Lee is near 13.5N 43.0W at 11 PM EDT, and is moving west-northwest at 14 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Peak seas are up to 13 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection, mainly organized in a band in the western quadrant, is observed from 10N to 19N and between 41W and 46W. The current motion is expected to continue for the next few days with a slight reduction in forward speed. Strengthening is expected, and Lee is forecast to become a hurricane by tomorrow night and a major hurricane by Friday. This could impact the models in the coming three or four days as they attempt to work out the impact on the Jetstream

Two runs out of 5 show deep areas of low pressure parked over the UK!

The Dice has landed that beyond D10 we are in proper autumn weather with nice low pressure systems parked over the UK and cool autumn temperatures. Looks like the Saharan dust cloud has arrived over North Wales - amazing sun rise right now.

GFS has brought back the low pressure system on the 06Z

For all the naysayers earlier i was right that we are moving to more typical September temperatures and rainfall! its no good though as the sun sets too early now!

In the near term rain is on the way tomorrow across West Wales, SW England and Northern Ireland. 32 degrees possibly in places like Chester on Saturday with a feels like temp of up to 37 degrees.

Is this our future with very hot spells once a year (at varying times). Wish the Omega set up would continue for the rest of the autumn! I'm hoping that the high pressure system continues to block the low to our SW and the Low which is giving severe weather to Greece. The models are very uncertain as to whether the heat will break down or continue. Contrary to my earlier model commentary the GFS reloads High Pressures over the next 16 days or so. However lower temps and rain showers are pretty much nailed on for this time next week However we still have the 10 degree isotherm and SW winds A NW/SE split might (just might) develop with London, East Anglia and the far south coast hanging on prefer another dip in the jet stream develops and fronts start to move across the UK. Even then we are looking at temperatures of between 22-27 degrees. Distinctly showery and unsettled with some longer spells of rain in some - thats some places in the UK

I agree with this - all models are just that they are predictions based on different variables and the latest data! As in all predictive modelling they are prone to error particularly beyond 5-7 days. I am discussing the GFS. ECMWF and other models and describing what they show taking into account the jetstream and pressure trends. I was really shocked by the 00Z which is why i stated in the post that I need to look at the next 2-3 outputs today to see if they are onto something about the weather turning much more unsettled or whether it was an outlier. I havent got access to the probability data or clusters or permutations at the moment. I dont want to see news outlets (particular the Express) latching onto that one output and saying that a Hurricane is on the way! which is what they normally do - they always exaggerate to the extreme!

Please dont attack my posting i am only stating what the GFS 00z model shows.