WeatherEnthusiast

Met office are sitting on the fence a little they just say in their latest update that it will be changeable from Wednesday with weather fronts mostly affecting Northern UK but that everywhere will get lower temperatures and feeling fresher. There could be thundery rain ahead of the coming cold front. Further forward, Southern England is likely to be "drier" as its obviously closer to the High which is migrating East, with the possibility of overnight fog. The general trend beyond this (3rd week and last week of September) is that pressure is likely to be higher than normal and there could still be the possibility of unseasonable warmer spells. However there will still be wet spells at times (mostly showers). Temperatures may be generally above average values expected in Late September and early October.

Turning unsettled next week

I wont be troublesome during winter I will however be on the hunt for strong high pressure systems and severe frosts (but not snow as i hate it)

I dont want to get into a row with fellow Netweather colleagues but there is no denying that the low does persist for 4 - 5 days if you look it just spirals around right over the UK! Temps on the 21st only 8 to 16.

The GFS 00Z run are showing the lows from D10 to D16 and persisting

Hot but turning increasingly unsettled as we see high level thunderstorms followed by more widespread storms. Could be a lot of thundery activity this weekend. Air pollution forecast for Saturday is extremely bad.

A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the far eastern Atlantic between the Cabo Verde Islands and the west coast of Africa. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form later this week or this weekend while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the eastern tropical Atlantic. This system is expected to move across the Cabo Verde Islands tonight and Thursday. Tropical Storm Lee is near 13.5N 43.0W at 11 PM EDT, and is moving west-northwest at 14 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Peak seas are up to 13 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection, mainly organized in a band in the western quadrant, is observed from 10N to 19N and between 41W and 46W. The current motion is expected to continue for the next few days with a slight reduction in forward speed. Strengthening is expected, and Lee is forecast to become a hurricane by tomorrow night and a major hurricane by Friday. This could impact the models in the coming three or four days as they attempt to work out the impact on the Jetstream

Two runs out of 5 show deep areas of low pressure parked over the UK!

The Dice has landed that beyond D10 we are in proper autumn weather with nice low pressure systems parked over the UK and cool autumn temperatures. Looks like the Saharan dust cloud has arrived over North Wales - amazing sun rise right now.

GFS has brought back the low pressure system on the 06Z

For all the naysayers earlier i was right that we are moving to more typical September temperatures and rainfall! its no good though as the sun sets too early now!

In the near term rain is on the way tomorrow across West Wales, SW England and Northern Ireland. 32 degrees possibly in places like Chester on Saturday with a feels like temp of up to 37 degrees.

Is this our future with very hot spells once a year (at varying times). Wish the Omega set up would continue for the rest of the autumn! I'm hoping that the high pressure system continues to block the low to our SW and the Low which is giving severe weather to Greece. The models are very uncertain as to whether the heat will break down or continue. Contrary to my earlier model commentary the GFS reloads High Pressures over the next 16 days or so. However lower temps and rain showers are pretty much nailed on for this time next week However we still have the 10 degree isotherm and SW winds A NW/SE split might (just might) develop with London, East Anglia and the far south coast hanging on prefer another dip in the jet stream develops and fronts start to move across the UK. Even then we are looking at temperatures of between 22-27 degrees. Distinctly showery and unsettled with some longer spells of rain in some - thats some places in the UK

I agree with this - all models are just that they are predictions based on different variables and the latest data! As in all predictive modelling they are prone to error particularly beyond 5-7 days. I am discussing the GFS. ECMWF and other models and describing what they show taking into account the jetstream and pressure trends. I was really shocked by the 00Z which is why i stated in the post that I need to look at the next 2-3 outputs today to see if they are onto something about the weather turning much more unsettled or whether it was an outlier. I havent got access to the probability data or clusters or permutations at the moment. I dont want to see news outlets (particular the Express) latching onto that one output and saying that a Hurricane is on the way! which is what they normally do - they always exaggerate to the extreme!

Please dont attack my posting i am only stating what the GFS 00z model shows.

Trough arrives on the 16th September and lasts for around a week at least with plenty of rain on the way. We could see some extremely high rain totals for the second half of September based on this contrary to what the long range forecasts by Met office and Netweather were saying.

I agree that Autumn is arriving with torrential rain, low temps and strong winds and storms. On this could we get the first named storm of autumn? Agree its in FL but shows the models are starting to change their mind about a dry september. Will see if this is repeated on the 06z and 12z to see if its an early detection of a much wetter trend than I was expecting.

Enjoy the heat while it lasts because, contrary to the Netweather monthly forecast published yesterday, according to GFS 00Z published just now : autumn storms, low temperatures and rain and wind are incoming from the 17th - 21st September as the jet stream dvies to the south over France and Iberia and we resume the July pattern on being on the northern side of the jet . What a contrast compared to the GFS 18Z that stated strong high pressure

GFS keeps the heat going for a full 10 days including today for London heathrow airport with Tropical heat! Where do you get this data from? Will we see Saharan dust arrive in Wrexham, Chester

We might hang on to the 10c isotherm until Tuesday at the latest

i am sure i can get an hour in the garden at lunchtime to top up my tan. Its a tragedy it wasnt like this over the Bank Holiday. I agree that millions of people will be stuck in offices and classrooms this week so will only be able to enjoy it after work and school.

So I was right a few days ago when i said the jetstream was going to power up and head south. Agree that there will be no secondary warm up next week.

Turning much colder next Monday Heavy rain in the Lake District, South of Scotland, Anglesey, with only very small rainfall accumulations SE of a line from Cardiff to Birmingham to Leeds. Norwich and East Anglia and Kent could get some rain. Feels like mid temp of 7/8 degrees by 11th September and Max of 23 in Wrexham city centre. Only 17 on Tuesday and 22 on Wednesday. next week

We are definitely facing a brief westerly mobile pattern according to the models but that could be just a 48 hour blip. Turning much more unsettled - there is a chance of a lot of instability on Wednesday night and a lot of cloud on Thursday reducing the temperatures. Met office forecasting risk of showers overnight on Wednesday. 250mb Jetstream moves to a NW angle that will cause the reduction in temperatures next week and rain and drizzle on Monday (possibly a washout) Signs though that the Azores high returns on Sept 13th and sticks around for around 4-5 days with varying positions but lots of cloud and only brief sunny spells. However temperatures will only be 18-22 c this time In terms of todays weather i'd expect clear blue skies and sunshine and 2-3 degrees hotter than yesterday as the 15c 850mb arrives over England and parts of Wales with the south coast getting the 17c 850mb with a DAM thickness of 573 to 575. Raw temps for today - .27c Manchester, 28C Leeds, 27c London, 27c Chester. Risk of fog on Wednesday morning at 06Z . Widespread 30C on Thursday. We could get a 32 in London on Friday compared to 18-23 in North Wales.

Tuesday looking very nice for the UK Cloud spoiling the party by THursday