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Everything posted by TauntonRoss
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Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
TauntonRoss replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I wouldn't be surprised if we get a covering further South on Thursday, few charts have it making it further North, maybe 1-3cm. -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
TauntonRoss replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
GFS is really good, cold out until next Wednesday so far, not sure what the fuss is about...features will pop up and showers will form. -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
TauntonRoss replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Not sure why there are so many negative comments today, GFS so far looks good with plenty of chances of snow across areas of the UK into next week as other charts show, what happens after the beginning of next week is miles away yet. -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
TauntonRoss replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Ah okay, mine is slow to update, bit behind. -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
TauntonRoss replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Low further North on the GFS too do we reckon? -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
TauntonRoss replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Loads of showers further North on ICON and GFS.. -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
TauntonRoss replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
TauntonRoss replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I personally don't see much of an attack from the Atlantic incoming, think it'll stay either cold or very cold...plenty of chance for snow, especially further East and Central areas. -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
TauntonRoss replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I personally think the cold will last well into next week with maybe a slight breakdown before more chances at the end of the month, the charts are struggling with Thursday let alone after that really. -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
TauntonRoss replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I can't believe I'm saying this but I'd give up the heavy snow down here for a longer colder cold spell, I know from experience we will get plenty of chances again and it well keep the cold for ages in place. -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
TauntonRoss replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
25.5% -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
TauntonRoss replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Need to look at the bigger picture though, cold in place and the more reliable charts are trying to deepen the cold air, to me it looks cold right beyond next weekend, after that is a crystal ball kinda of weather forecast. -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
TauntonRoss replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Hence why people need to chill, the charts will catch up. -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
TauntonRoss replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Everything seems fine to me, what happens beyond the end of next week is irrelevant right now as its a week away, let's get the end of week settled and sorted, the outcome of that will go some way to determine what happens afterwards. UKMO is brilliant and so is the GFS at the end or final 3rd but that's not the most reliable...just shows there are many different options available and charts will flip flow for a bit yet. -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
TauntonRoss replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
ECM running, see how it goes. -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
TauntonRoss replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The GFS is currently quite an unreliable chart, you have to remember nearly all charts are behind a long cold spell of weather with support from ensembles/clusters etc, I'll almost guarantee you the GFS is over doing the shortwave which will change in the next few runs...the outlook is cold and eventually snowy and with the jet stream eventually sitting further South there isn't much to encourage milder air.. Yeah it won't happen, it's all over the place at the minute. -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
TauntonRoss replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Damn you're quick, was about to post that -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
TauntonRoss replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Looks good too me, Thursday/Friday will be somewhere in the middle I reckon, be nice when the expert charts come into view. -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
TauntonRoss replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
TauntonRoss replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Jersey met has already issued one and closed schools etc for the day on Thursday -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
TauntonRoss replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I wouldn't be, the worse of the winds are modelled to stay off the coast or along the coast. The only way I think they'd do it now is if the models shifted the low further North which is possible, the Amber warnings are only a step or two down from red so it's primed ready to go if needed. -
Storms and Convective discussion - September 2023
TauntonRoss replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Reckon this could move over as far West as Somerset? It seems further West on the radar than was predicted, more widespread. -
Storms and Convective discussion - September 2023
TauntonRoss replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Think it'll get us, the back edge is hooking around and growing more. Nice little shelf cloud too! -
Storms and Convective discussion - September 2023
TauntonRoss replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Can confirm we have had about 20 mins of pretty much consistent thunder and lightning with heavy rain, storm has moved away now and all is quiet sadly. Hopefully more to come.