BartyHater

It’s not until the 270hr that the -5c at 850 finally clears the entire country on the 06 GFS and even then it’s doesn’t exactly blast away south…the Atlantic looks much subdued by then, but not so subdued that it won’t try to fight back in later. That of course could produce the goods via battleground events. Comparing that to the 18 GFS from just 12 hours prior, the difference is obvious and not exactly inspiring. Nothing is a done deal yet.

That’s a fair comment and much as I see it, but for me it’s going to be the middle third of Jan as I also alluded to yesterday. This is a slow burner, it can’t be ‘wished’ in any quicker.

It’s really not…nothing is kicking off at 186hrs.

The difference between the 00 and 06 GFS for a week today is pretty obvious and suggests there’s no quick or easy route to cold. Hopefully the latter will be very much on the mild side of its ENS.

GEM 240 suggests the cold may not win without a real battle, which could of course mean a significant dump of snow for some or even many as we move towards week 2 of Jan. Of interest in the GFS 00 ENS is the Op consistently comes out as one of the colder runs, it’s been thus for days on end now.

Indeed.

18 GFS says any genuine cold remains post 240hrs, but it really does look worth waiting for…lets just hope it’s not a screaming cold outlier

The 120hr from the 18 ICON looks very similar to its counterpart on the 12, which then went on to produce a mild 180hr for midnight on Weds 3rd…can’t see any reason why the 18 wouldn’t go on to do the same if it went out to 180hrs, so we really don’t want to see the 18 GFS follow it again.

Not really sure we any closer to resolving the first few days of the new year yet and in it’s latter stages the ECM looks rudderless, with a S Scandi High and a massive N Atlantic dartboard Low. The ENS from GFS still show plenty of scatter, but the mean never drifts to far from average in the new year and the Op still manages to be one of the coldest members later in the run. As for the minor models all show a variation on the ‘colder’ theme without demonstrating any kind of inter run consistency, so imo the 12 suite continues to ask more questions than it answers…. and I suspect that situation will persist for several days yet.

Didn’t realise they were out…. Looks pretty outlier’ish to me around the 2nd.

More like typical inter run variability, I'd expect the Op to be a mild outlier around New Year on this run - the overall trend is definately towards colder conditions early next month, how cold and for how long remain the only real questions, but the answers to them still remain some distance away.

No cold fix on the 06….lets see where it sits in the ENS.

Many more positive signs for cold across the 00 suite as we go into the New Year, but there’s still a significant amount of scatter on the GFS 00 ENS and the Op is again one of the coldest members later. As ever more runs needed but for now the trend is our friend for the New Year….hopefully it’ll continue to improve after what’s been a ridiculously mild Christmas for many of us.

24.5c more like

2918??? Now that’s what I call FI

It’s still relatively early

Potential….I try not to say the actual word as it tends to jinx things.

It might be 384 and into the middle third of Jan, but the P word can probably be used here….at last. Hopefully that P will be realised in the 2nd half of the month and into Feb.

So we have this from the 192hr 00 ECM for Jan 2nd…and this from the 06GFS for the same time. Can’t say I see a huge amount of disagreement, nor any easy route to cold, indeed just a slight tweak with the timing and New Years Day could end up being be as mild as today…

Well if Cambrian is correct with his earlier post then whatever the wait is, it’ll definitely be worth it, but at the moment I still think the best we can say is the post Xmas and New Year period won’t be as mild it’s been and currently remains.

Nothing says ‘21st century winter’ better than these Christmas mornings dawn temps across the vast majority of Europe…hard frost for much of Iberia, 11c in Poland

Whilst most models continue to flip flop around, especially GFS which really is all over the show, ECM remains relatively consistent and flatly refuses to buy into anything cold. Even right at the end of the run Euro/Iberian heights stay solid, with very little sign of a path to anything cold even several days later. Yes we’ve already seen the ECM flip this winter and play catch up with GFS, but the fact it’s remained consistent with its general evolution for several days now is a worry, especially as it’s mild set up is shown eating well into January. Happy Christmas

Much to like about the 12 GFS in FI, but pre 240hrs it's still pretty meh and the other 12's at 168hrs offer little in the way of festive cheer. Lets see where the 12 ECM goes, hopefully it'll be much better than it's 00 predecessor and pick up on the trend towards something more seasonal in early Jan.

Yep, but I still think it’s pretty impressive that the models can nail maxes to within 0.5c over a week in advance.

In amongst all the noise about future cold prospects, the 1300hr temp at St James Pk, London has hit 15.2c. The all time record maxima in England is 15.5c, so there now looks a very good chance that this could go…. As weather enthusiasts, that should at least interest us, especially as GFS were pumping out some 15-16c maxes for both Xmas Eve and Xmas Day over a week ago now.