multi cellular thunderstorm
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Posts posted by multi cellular thunderstorm
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Got intense showers to the north and south of Nottingham, but still not a drop of rain here today.
The one passing to the north of Nottingham has really intensified fast. Seems Nottingham was the breeding ground for that one.
At the moment Lincolnshire is looking like a great place to be this evening.
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Looks promising for this area, again, but after so many disappointments recently I'm not feeling very enthusiastic at the moment.
Still just heard one distant rumble this year, Nottingham isn't living up to my expectations at all!
Cameras are ready though so if anything interesting hits Nottingham in the next few hours I'll have some pics/video to share.
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Still waiting for my first storm here this year. Very few left in the NSC now. Storm to my North over Stafford but it will die out before getting here and probably pass East of here. Still, had lots of hail today including snow!
Same here, just one distant rumble heard this year and no lightning seen.
Everything is west and south of me today.
That cell north of Birmingham looks best at the moment. Very active with a lot of lightning and probably a lot of hail going by the radar echoes.
Looking back through the last few radar updates, that cell was 3 separate cores which merged into one big one.
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Nice line of heavy showers now from Cheshire down towards Cambridge and beyond.
Typically it was just light drizzle as it passed over Nottingham, before rapidly intensifying within a few miles.
Still only the one strike detected so far as syncmaster said, but I think there will be more around that line before long.
Also some rapidly intensifying showers heading into north west Wales now which could well produce lightning soon.
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Stunning photos, really good to see Tour 1 is going so well, especially when things looked very quiet on the models before the tour started.
That structure is amazing! Would love to have tested my new camera on that.
Looking more hopeful on the job front for me, if I get one soon I could be back next year.
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Very nice album, some excellent photos there.
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What a start! Especially when things looked so quiet about a week ago.
Looking forward to seeing more photos.
I'm jealous of the storms, but like Arron I'm also very jealous of your location. I would love to have chased that far south and got to the gulf of Mexico.
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I have a little old StrikeAlert 1 with it's bum taped over with tank tape
Definitely has to be kept away from electronic toys and was next to useless in my old car, kept going off every time I changed gear.......
However the batteries seem to last forever which is just as well as they get fired across the room if you try and change them And of course netweather extra
Haha yes I know what you mean, mine was working fine with my girlfriends hair bobble wrapped around it, but last time I changed the battery I ended up breaking it completely by sticking a screwdriver in it, and now there's bits rattling around everywhere.
So now that's finally gone, I only use the Netweather Extra radar and lightning detector to track storms, and of course the window, but they rarely come close enough for that!
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Good question.
I seem to get more excited in Autumn about snow than I do in Spring about thunderstorms. Having said that, I think I actually enjoy thunderstorms a lot more.
They are far more exciting and unpredictable, especially thunderstorms in the US Midwest which I have been lucky enough to experience. I would far rather see the most extreme storms on earth than the deepest or most extreme snow, so I think that confirms that I like storms best.
I do love snow too though.
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Good luck with Day 1.
Now that's it's actually underway, it's even more difficult sitting here in the UK knowing I'm not coming over there.
Made even worse by my failed 157 mile chase to north Lincs today.
Need to somehow scape together enough money to come again next year!
Can't wait for the first 'report & pictures' thread.
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Got back to Nottingham at about 20:15, after a 157 mile round trip.
Obviously it was disappointing, but it's the first time I've been around that area, so I have some usable knowledge for the future.
Things got slightly more interesting about 6ish to the north of the estuary, with some little lowerings associated with the intense line of ppn which formed, as you can see in my pics...
Looking forward to next time.
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Pinning my hopes now on the heavy ppn passing north of Nottingham and heading in the direction of the humber estuary. Anyone think that will develop into a storm as it moves towards this area? How are the other chasers feeling about our chances?
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Got a good view over the estuary where I am now. I'm on a single track road called horkstow road. Not a lot happening though, just a light shower at the moment. Think I'll stop here for a while and see what happens. Might have to give up about 6ish and head back to Nottingham.
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Sitting near Gainsborough now but I think I'll head a bit further north soon and try to find a good viewpoint. Radar is looking a bit more promising now.
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All packed and just about to head north east.
I'll be checking the forum while I'm out and hopefully myself and others chasing will have some pics and video to share with you later.
Good luck everyone!
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Right, I'm moving in the next half hour, probably have a run to the south bank of the Humber.
Me too, first stop probably Gainsborough to check the radar and forum then either North towards Barton-on-Humber area, or East towards Grimsby area.
Doesn't look very interesting here yet.
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Hi guys,
Sun is out in sunny Hull
I think for you guys, the best area to be positioned in is around the Gainsborough area, NE to Barton.
It all depends on how far S/SW the storms develop as they will be tracking ENE (more increasingly NE) so the exit point imho is just North of the Humber out towards the end of the estuary.
It could be a little further South.
I'll give you guys updates throughout the day if you want with regards to what's happening, I cannot chase today
my head gasket gone on my mondeo so i'm currently in the market for a new car, gutted!Best of luck, and stay safe
Thanks, that's actually a very good place to start for me, I think I'll take your advice.
It should only be about a 1 hour drive from Nottingham at the most, and would put me in a good position, and from there I can head NE to the Humber Estuary.
I'll maybe aim to get there for about 3pm unless things change.
I'm quite excited about today, I've never actually chased in the UK before, so it's a new experience.
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Temperature increasing here, at 19c currently with a dew of 15c...
If it keeps climbing conditions are going to be perfect for some severe thunderstorms...
Lewis
Sounds good.
This is my chase area for today, I don't want to chase anything north of the Humber...
This area is completely new to me, does anyone have some good lookout points? The Barton on Humber place sounds good, I'll keep that in mind.
There's obviously not much high ground in that area, but are there any good hills with nice 360 views?
I'll be in a grey Seat Ibiza, and I'll probably wear my 'powered by stormchasing' jumper if anyone sees me.
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Some breaks in the cloud in N Wales, N Midlands and Lincolnshire, hopefully cloud will continue to break up.
Temps already up to around 17C in Lincolnshire.
Might see some of you out and about later.
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Nice to see a few breaks in the cloud here and a bit of sunshine.
I'm still planning to go out this afternoon, possibly north Lincolnshire, but Nottingham is also fairly well placed so I'm worried that my chase might fail and I miss a storm in Nottingham.
I should be able to decide fairly late, if I head for north lincs then Nottingham might be the breeding ground, but with pretty fast storm motion, I probably can't watch a storm in Nottingham and then drive ahead of it again.
Anyway everything is charged and ready to go, good luck anyone chasing, and everyone else.
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Forecast from UKASF...
Areas Affected:
SVR: Yorkshire, Lincolnshire
SLGT: Yorkshire, Midlands, N East Anglia
Synopsis:
Surface low migrates northeastwards through the Irish Sea, across Northern England and eventually the North Sea. Strong thermal contrast across this low, with jet streak aloft poses the chance for severe convection.
Discussion:Behind the warm front tonight, significant advection of high WBPT will occur over England and Wales. Several WRF models simulate 300-400J/kg MLCAPE over much of southern Britain behind the main frontal rain during the early hours. However, by this stage saturated vertical profiles and slight warming aloft is likely to lead to very little in the way of convection. Nevertheless, there is a low risk of perhaps an elevated thunderstorm developing in an environment with >35kts LLS and 60kts DLS. Confidence of this, though, is not high enough to expand the SLGT threat area to cater for this.
The main interest during this forecast period, however, is late morning through to the early evening across central and eastern England in particular. To the south of the occlusion, strong moisture convergence is forecast over parts of northern England where the thermal gradient is greatest. It is possible that a shortwave may run northeastwards around the southern/eastern flank of the low during the afternoon, initiating convection.
Most models agree on 18-19C, possibly 20C, sfc temperatures being possible, with dewpoints of 13-14C. This in turn will generate anywhere up to 700J/kg CAPE, and thus scattered thunderstorms may to form, with the greatest sferic activity likely in Yorkshire and Lincolnshire with the longest land track and greatest instability. Orographic forcing may play a role in convection initiation too from the Pennines northeastwards.
30kts LLS and 50-60kts DLS would allow convection to become well-organised and long-lived. Some directional shear, albeit weak, coupled with >150m^2s^-2 of helicity may allow a low-topped supercell to develop, capable of producing moderately-sized hail and a tornado. If surface winds ease slightly compared to model simulations, and a slight seabreeze develop locally, then sufficient backing to the low-level winds would greatly enhance the potential for supercellular characteristics to develop.
There is certainly potential for some severe convective weather, but it is very much dependent on the final position and track of the low, and any cloud debris left within the flow around the low. This will need careful monitoring throughout the day.
http://ukasf.co.uk/storm-forecasts/169 - (Click link for risk map)
That makes very pleasant reading
I have looked at the latest high resolution NMM model run and it fits with the risk area above...
Going by the above charts, I might be more tempted to head for the southern part of the risk area, due to slightly higher temps and lapse rates. Also that precipitation chart has me picturing an MCS cluster around Humberside/Yorkshire, with a lone supercell in Lincolnshire. That's probably just my optimism, but I am definitely leaning towards Lincolnshire rather than going further north.
I'll check things again in the morning, but I'm pretty sure I'll be out tomorrow heading east.
I'm seriously in need of a good storm, so it's time I went out to find them, they certainly aren't finding me!
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I was just wondering if anyone here watched natures fury last night, I'm about to watch it on record now! Was it a repeat of the old ones, and how great would it be if we had that here tommorow.... Well we all have dreams!
It is a repeat yes, but I watched it again for the 3rd time. I really like it.
Did you know our own Paul Sherman features in it, as well and some appearances from Nick F, Ian Cameron, Tom Lynch.
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I'll drop you a pm if you're interested Mark
Ok yeah please.
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I saved all the netweather radar images from this supercell and put them into a video...
This covers 6 hours from 12:20 to 18:20
However the batteries seem to last forever which is just as well as they get fired across the room if you try and change them 
UK Convective General Discussion & Forecasts - May Into June 2012
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
Met Office forecasts continue to mention the 'risk of thunder', it seems very unlikely to me, especially up here in the East Midlands.
This is the forecast for my region...
Some other regions have 'thunder' in the forecast for tonight, but only the East Midlands forecast mentions thunder tomorrow.
Surely not likely?