high ground birmingham

Jan 1987 is probably a once in a century event

Maybe this time we can hit the real deal

I cannot believe that the last 10 days can be called above average. Above average it has certainly not been. In fact in this January, only 1 or 2 days have been above average. Looks like some frosty nights too next week. There is 0% chance of the January CET of 4C plus coming off. I think the January CET will end up close to 3.3C.

Hi TWS, Was wondering whether you think that had the Feb 2001 easterly come off, then would it have been mentioned with other famous cold easterly spells such as Jan 87 and Feb 91. Would we be discussing things like....If only we had an easterly like jan 87, feb 91 or feb 01?? What would have the upper temps been had Feb 01 come off?? Thanks, hgb

I think it may have been January 2006. Was that when Moscow experienced near record breaking cold temps?? I think just a little of the cold air in Jan 2006 made it and did give some snow in the SE if i remember. Does anyone have the charts for Jan 2006 easterly near miss?

CET for February in my view will be 4.3C. A cold start to Feb will give way to a mild second half after the 14th Feb. After the 26th Feb, temps could reach 14-17C

All the talk about a possible easterly at the beginning of February has reignited my memory of the last few years. I seem to remember on more than one occasion when an easterly was progged by the models in the reliable timeframe before disappearing on the charts. I also remember on one occasion when both the ECM and GFS going for an easterly about a couple of years ago but this disappeared. My questions/issues here is: What went wrong to scupper these easterlies? When were these meant to occur? What upper 850s were progged? Does anyone have any saved charts too? Thanks, hgb

Sleet now in Birmingham. Very similar set up to Novmber 2007. I remember some charts showing a similar set up to this last week but many were dismissing it. Only Mr Data supported the possibility of a similar event to this

I have been noticing from the models recently that there is a shortwave feature before the main front that is progged for the battle on Thurs. This is the shortwave feature at T102 (Wednesday 18z). This could give 2-4cm across North and mid Wales, the NW Midlands and NW England before the main battle commences. I haven't seen anyone mention this feature.

Boy oh boy, isnt the 12z stunning for the Midlands northwards, not one but two battles progged, obviously still a lot of uncertainty as this event edges slightly into the more reliable timeframe. Not once on this run upt T180 is any mild Atlantic weather progged.

I'm going for a Annual CET of 11.05C with an exceptionally warm May,August and November this year and the only 'cool' month being March 2007. I believe November 2007 will be the warmest on record.

Just shows you- our 5cm of snow brings the nation to a standstill and 3 feet in norway doesnt make a blindest difference to daily life.

The constant zonality of January 2005.

My God, have you seen the cold that is projected next week on the GFS. WOW!!!: For Friday 2nd February- Chicago could easily be having maxes of -15C and lows may reach -25C. New York will also get this cold wave but obviously not as cold as Chicago. This will be by far America's coldest spell in a while.

Well, in terms of winter events, 2000-01 wasn't bad nor was 2003-04. February-March 2005 did have the potential there for something very special however it was not to be. Saying, that 50cm was recorded in that February at Boltsthorpe Park.

Hi TWS, Eastern areas did do very well in the 27-30 easterly spell. However it was a bit of a damp squib in the midlands in terms of snow but temperature wise it was far better than the Feb 05 easterly with -3C being my max for the 29th. Though, I did expect more though from the breakdown event after this easterly, however this failed to produce apart from the NE. TWS, you mustve done well out of the breakdown of the dec 05 easterly spell???

Well, Aberdeen does tend to do very well out of northerlies however these days it is very diffucult to produce a major widespread snow event with northerlies. Only one recently was Jan 28th 2004. I remember last February and March, Aberdeen doing extremely well with snow. Also in recent times bar 12th March 06, it has been genuinely difficult to produce a major snow event out of mild/cold battles.

Yes Andy, I think there was a Christmas fall in 2001, Mr Data should be able to clarify. Christmas 2004 saw many have a white christmas also.

I believe February's CET will be 3.9C, incidentally the same as February 2005. I'm going for a mild few days at the start of the month with a very cold mid-month and a slightly milder than average finish:

Ok, so this thread is for the best snow event for you that has taken place this 21st century. I know there hasn't been many but it would be nice to hear what was the most memorable/best snow event since 1st Jan 2000. Here are a few of my favourites: 1. Dec 28th 2000 snow event 2. Jan 28th 2004 thundersnow event 3. Mar 12th 2006 cold/mild battle snow event Go ahead, what was our favourite??

The 28th December event has far been the best winter event so far this 21st century. I recieved 5 inches of snow and then lovely night time minima of -10C. It was memorable the way the snow just didn't melt for days. I think the last of the snow melted on 1st Jan. Since then, I think only the Jan 28th 2004 thundersnow event came close to matching that event.