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Luke Best

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Posts posted by Luke Best

    Cold hunt - models and chat

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Polar Maritime
    Added link above ?

    17 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

    Can we please leave the now-casting/who's going to get snow and radar watching to the regionals or the cold spell thread which is dedicated to this event.

    Thank you, And back the Model Output related discussion.

    Please can you provide a link to the dedicated cold spell thread?  TIA.

    • Like 1

    Cold hunt - models and chat

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    15 minutes ago, kold weather said:

    I think its just a touch smaller/weaker than the 06z run, other than that its in an identical place more or less.

    IF the 12z para would come off, somewhere on the downs would be getting a 1ft, I'm fairly sure of that.

    Dean E, I don't know if you have lived in Chichester since at least 2010 but I went uni down there. I remember there was a kind of 'reverse' channel low on I think the 1/2nd of December which gave the area 8-9 inches of snowfall. I remember sticking a glass out there and the glass was gone in the morning. This looks like a similar but more classic version, at least on the GFSP.

    If memory serves that was a polar low that dropped down and stalled in the English Channel. Bournemouth was under a Met O Red Warning but the low tracked a little too far east before stalling and we ended up getting naff all snow whilst the A3 corridor took a pasting. 

    • Like 1

    Model output discussion - summer rolls on

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    9 minutes ago, Team Jo said:

    Met office apparently going for a 20% chance of the record being broken Friday according to guidance statement.

    I’ve not looked at any charts this evening though, but interesting percentage in the mix there, would love to see (as ever) what they’re seeing on MOGREPS

     

    And that's a 20% chance of the all-time UK record being broken!!! 

    30% chance of the July record being broken, according to the Met O's Chief Forecaster. 

    Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

    I think there's so much going on its hard to keep up with what's happening outside of one's own region.

    Let's summarise. The HIRLAM wants to turn the UK into a ski resort by midday Sunday.

    Though I think it's best on N Sea convection, I have this nagging fear it will be proven to be exaggerating the frontal snow quite considerably. Hope not!

    I'm still very hopeful for this weekend but from an IMBY point of view (and yours I suspect), my fear is that the frontal snow will be more prevalent in the far SW, with most of the convection in the NE, leaving us in a drier middle section.  

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    Model output discussion - here comes the beast!

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    2 hours ago, Interitus said:

    This article from the Meteorological Society Weather journal is worth reading at this point - An historical and climatological note on snowfalls associated with cold pools in southern Britain - http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/wea.666/pdf

    Jan 1987 rates as the record deep cold pool at around 495/496 dam 1000-500mb thickness.

    The authors say -

    In fact that whole edition of the journal from Jan 2011 is freely available and is a special issue focused on severe winter weather and worth a look for those inclined -

    http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/wea.v66.1/issuetoc

    Here's an interesting excerpt:

    "We have not seen such an absence of deep cold pool events since the 1970s, and therefore, in spite of global warming, who is to say that, following 1956 and 1987, the next extremely deep cold pool event will not visit us in January or February 2018?"

    Considering that was written in Jan 2011, that's not a bad call!

    • Like 24
    • Thanks 2

    Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, KTtom said:

    Just want to bump this excellent post forward for people to read this morning...such a shame it will get lost in pages of mainly drivel!

    Also worth bumping is yesterday's excellent blog by Nick Finnis, which I found extremely informative and helped demystify the MJO.

    https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/news/8716-analysis-of-whats-behind-the-pattern-change-bringing-deep-cold-to-uk-next-week

    • Thanks 1

    Model output discussion - into 2018

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Luke Best

    9 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

     

    gfseu-0-192.png?12

     

     

    GFS spawns a Super Typhoon in the northern Atlantic. :rofl:    Er, no!

    (Edit - I've deleted phil nw's text to shorten my post.  For the record, I'm laughing at the GFS' output - not phil nw's excellent post.  Apologies if my post reads wrong & out of context...)

    • Like 1

    South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 09/12/2017 onwards

    in Regional

    Posted · Edited by Luke Best

    Last one from me.

     

    As Blue says, altitude is key. Anyone thinking of travelling in the search of snow would do well to go somewhere well above sea level - Portadown Hill,Butsor Hill got to be a good shout.

     

    Living in Bournemouth, we're truly snow starved.  I'll never forget as a small kid when my Dad drove me up to Shaftesbury one winter. (1981?). Bournemouth had nothing, there was a dusting 10 miles inland and by the time we'd got to the hills of Shaftesbury, there were snow drifts several foot deep by the sides of the road.  I was wonderstruck and that has never left me!

    DSC_0575.JPG

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