Luke Best
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Posts posted by Luke Best
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1 minute ago, Stormyskies56 said:
I e only live here since July 2015. This is the first Swindon snow I’ve seen. Oh look a snow plough, that’s a first for today.
I was working then enf of 2012 - early 2013. I remember there was a lot of snow in Swindon then that settled.
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4 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:
Can we please keep snow reports to the regionals. Thanks.
Personally interested in any snow reports linked to model verification.
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23 minutes ago, Cloud 10 said:
The GFS op and control run are run at a higher resolution than the other GEFS members,so in theory they should verify better.
I don't believe that this is correct.
As I understand it, the op is run at a high resolution and the control at a lower resolution.
The 'GEFS members' are run with slightly adjusted starting data (and also at a lower resolution).
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32 minutes ago, Northwest NI said:This is my second winter on the forum. I get the feeling if I ever get to see a proper winter snow scenario evolve I’ll be too knackered to enjoy it! I’ll wake up and it’ll be like nothing ever happened.
Even as it's snowing outside, we'll all be glued to this forum discussing when the breakdown is coming!
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6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:
Oh Deary me! - I thought it might after things started badly with less amplification on the UKMO and now its continued on to the ECM.
I wouldn't worry about output from UKMO and ECM - they'll surely fall into line with this morning's stellar output from the GFS!
(Tongue firmly in cheek).
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2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:
Dec 31st 1984.
What followed? If memory serves me right we got a proper big dump of snow that winter. (Bournemouth).
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11 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:
A virtual pint for the 1 key date in the archives we had an atlantic ridged into the arctic meeting an arctic high ( Not Greenland ! )
answers on a postcard!
And the year was?
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4 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:
I don't think much has really changed. The 12z is just showing a colder run in fantasy land; it has no more chance of occurring than the mild weather being shown on the 6z.
Personally think we will see a West based NAO and average conditions in the UK with fronts crossing from the SW.
Boo hoo, you sound of reason you!
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Wow. Just driven through very heavy rain shower by Poole Harbour. Why wow? Rain falling from high level Ac Cas. Thought the radar was showing a large blobof ana prop, and then the rain came down, seemingly out of nowhere!
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That storm over Switzerland is an absolute beast! Interesting analysis from Estofex:
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On 16/07/2017 at 21:49, Allseasons-si said:
Some nice CG's coming down in the distance on that cam now.
Watched the show from Kefalonia - was absolutely incredible! Forks coming down constantly - returns on Blitzortung significantly underdoing the actual number of strikes.
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Meanwhile, on holiday in Greece...
It started overhead but kicked off on the mainland - just the most amazing lightshow, huge forks coming down all over the place! Still going on in the distance - can still see forks coming down well inland in the Peloponnese.
Good luck back in Blighty this week folks.
God how I wish I had the money to spend my summers chasing these hot weather beasts in the Mediterranean - what a life that would be!
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Another stunning skyscape (not done proper justice by mobile phone cam).
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Some nice ACu with virga in Bournemouth.
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Nothing to do with the current outbreak, but this is well worth a watch.
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Horizon now filled with cirro-cumulus with virga. Clearly significant high-level wind as they are far from static.
And another - just loving these skies:
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Time for a bit of mackerel
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Updated skies over Bournemouth:
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Interesting. Got some convection going on at cirrus level. Cirro-cumulus here with virga, if you can pick it out from my crappy phone camera photo...
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I have absolutely nothing to back this up, but I've just got a nagging feeling Bournemouth is well positioned. I've actually got relatively high hopes of getting a storm early morning tomorrow.
Anyhow - good luck to all, wherever you are.
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44 minutes ago, P-M said:
This is from UK Weather Scientific who used to be Met Monkey I think? What are thoughts on this?
DANGEROUS THUNDERSTORM STATEMENT for Wednesday 21st June 2017 from 15:00 until 06.00am Thursday 22nd for the potential of dangerous supercells.
There is a risk of dangerous supercells developing today across Northern England, North East England (Newcastle) and surrounding areas with a slightly lower risk for the Midlands. The situation is highly complex and a little uncertain due to the number of potential limiting factors however it is expected that a few supercell thunderstorms exhibiting rotation will form later this evening (dependant on heat and trigger locally).
Thunderstorms that develop in conditions present today will be capable of producing large or very large damaging hail, damaging straight line winds and moderate strength tornadoes, not too dissimilar to those that form in the states. In addition usual severe characteristics typical with storms such as frequent lightning and flash flooding will be observed.
Severe thunderstorms are also possible across the N Midlands and into E Anglia although the threat is more uncertain and isolated due to the presence of upper ridging drying out the vertical profile. Nevertheless any storm that does manage to fire will most certainly become severe and dangerous.
It must be stressed that any storm that does develop today will need extremely close monitoring and we advise the public to be very weather aware and on high alert. The main risk is considered to be later this afternoon with focus more on the evening when heat and cap breaking is most probable. Please share this post with as many people as possible and rest assured through the day further updates will be provided. A potentially dangerous day of weather locally. As is always the case with set ups like these many places will remain dry or could miss the core of any storms but regardless the violent nature of today's storm potential warrants utmost vigilance and awareness. Stay aware and stay safe.
I used to be a member of Met Monkey. I get what people saying about hyperbole but in my experience Keithy Joe has a particularly good understanding and track record of forecasting thunderstorm events, so whilst I understand what people are saying I also note with interest Keithy Joe's thoughts on the situation.
Let's not forget that in recent years there have been some tragic incidents involving young children where bouncy castles have been taken high into the air by sudden gusts of wind. Maybe it's not such a bad idea to make people vigilant where the POTENTIAL is as severe as perhaps it is today?
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Was expecting to wake up to clear blue skies again, so surprised when I opened the window to this:
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1 hour ago, James1979 said:
Really? I've seen a few things on the internet recently saying similar and even (non weather nut friends and family are noticing)but nothing official, I'd be really interested to see that.
Bizarre last night as although the action was mainly Kent/channel way we got a few strikes around here about 1 every 5-10 mins in the end - just as I went to bed the closest lightning strike I've ever experienced hit somewhere near by. A flash and massive explosion at the exact same time had me 6 feet in the air and out of bed- i was sure the house had been hit!! Kind of makes up for not seeing the main action but very scary. Just wish I'd managed to actually see/film the bolt!
Is this the document you're after?
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/j.1477-8696.1998.tb06352.x/pdf
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Friday night might have been one hell of a light show.
But tonight - the thunder, whilst infrequent, is incredibly loud!
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South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 09/12/2017 onwards
in Regional
Posted · Edited by Luke Best
I've struck lucky! Travelled to Haslemere yesterday evening and have woken up to a whiteout!