wolves78

My First

Storm prediction trimmed, but we're ``not off the hook'' http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/15224633.htm or try my forum http://wolves78.forumco.com/topic~TOPIC_ID~5.asp

try a prog called photo resize magic 1.0 its freeware and does the job for me

ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 500 PM EDT FRI AUG 04 2006 THE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME BROAD AND POORLY-DEFINED WITHIN THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAD A DIFFICULT TIME FINDING THE CENTER AT 850 MB. DROPSONDES NEAR THE ESTIMATED 850 MB CENTER INDICATED LIGHT WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS AND ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE. FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 30-36 KT WERE OBSERVED WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF CENTER...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT BASED ON THESE WINDS AND AN EARLIER 30 KT SYNOPTIC OBSERVATION FROM GRAND TURK. NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO DISRUPT ANY CONVECTION TRYING TO FORM NEAR THE CENTER. GIVEN THAT THE CIRCULATION IS WEAKER THAN IT WAS 12 HOURS AGO...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL NOT INDICATE RESTRENGTHING BACK TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS PRIOR TO NEARING THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA. INSTEAD IT WILL WAIT UNTIL THE SYSTEM ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO IN 2-3 DAYS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TRENDS OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS CLOSELY...BUT SHOWS LESS STRENGTHENING NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY CONTINGENT ON CHRIS MAINTAINING A CLOSED CIRCULATION...WHICH MAY NOT HAPPEN. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 280/10 KT. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED AS CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING SOUTH OF A STRONG LOW/MID- TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE. TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/2100Z 21.4N 72.8W 30 KT 12HR VT 05/0600Z 21.7N 74.5W 30 KT 24HR VT 05/1800Z 22.1N 76.9W 30 KT 36HR VT 06/0600Z 22.6N 79.4W 30 KT...ALONG COAST OF CUBA 48HR VT 06/1800Z 23.2N 82.0W 30 KT...ALONG COAST OF CUBA 72HR VT 07/1800Z 24.2N 87.0W 35 KT 96HR VT 08/1800Z 25.0N 92.5W 40 KT 120HR VT 09/1800Z 25.5N 98.0W 45 KT...INLAND

because balir wont spen much on it as he has running eater all the time

if you want to stay updated try this forum http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=102678

this system IMO will just make it to the gulf of mexico. texas look out in 4 days or so this could be the begining of a decent season from a weather point of view

Edit - Link from Wolves' forum: A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W SOUTH OF 21N MOVING WEST AROUND 20 KT. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 71W-80W. THE WAVE IS MOVING AWAY FROM PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... BUT AN AREA OF MODERATE SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...HISPANIOLA... PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS NOW ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH THAT CROSSES THE ENCHANTED ISLAND. EARLIER THIS MORNING...SAN JUAN REPORTED 2.78 INCHES OF RAIN. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING AND SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. AND maybe another THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE MAIN FEATURE ACROSS THE BASIN IS THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. SEE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION. A RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA FROM AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH LOCATED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...ENHANCING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY RELATED TO THE ABOVE MENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH. THIS RIDGE HAS BECOME THE DOMINATING FEATURE ACROSS THE E/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. AN UPPER TROUGH RUNS FROM A CUT-OFF LOW LOCATED NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS ACROSS CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TO A SECOND UPPER CYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS CUBA AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. 10-20 KT TRADE WINDS BLOW ACROSS THE AREA

i only hate the things because i woke up one morning with one stuck to mi face what a git i live by a canal where dragon flys are more welcome and very photogenic moths look better when sqished lovely gold colour

Temperature 31°C (88°F) Dew Point 55 Relative Humidity 33% Wind Speed 9 Wind Direction 200° Pressure 30.0 Sky Clear Ceiling Unlimited Visibility 6.21 Heat Index 87 Wind Chill 31°C (88°F) report from 14:00hrs

grass here is brown the fields just to my east looked great a few weeks ago look like someone has burnt the lot

i think it might have something to do with the webcam as storms look to be about ppl want to see what its like on webcams across the UK i took mine off due to it useing to much bandwidth thats just one cause though as google have prob cached it

000 WTPZ41 KNHC 231440 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006 800 AM PDT SUN JUL 23 2006 CONVECTION HAS INCREASED MARKEDLY DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...AND BOTH CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE EMILIA HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED. THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 55 KT BASED ON A DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.5 FROM TAFB...A DATA T-NUMBER OF T3.5 FROM SAB...AND A UW-CIMSS 3-H AVERAGE ADT OF T3.6/57 KT. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT POSITION AND FORWARD MOTION OF EMILIA...BUT MY BEST ESTIMATE IS 300/09 KT BASED ON LIMITED MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA. A LARGE AND RATHER STOUT MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND EXTENDING SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTWARD INTO MEXICO IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BUT BASICALLY REMAIN INTACT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AS SUCH...THE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY DEEP-LAYER STEERING FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP EMILIA MOVING IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION. THE MAJORITY OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO. THE EXCEPTIONS ARE THE GFS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MODELS WHICH TAKE EMILIA QUICKLY WESTWARD FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION...WHICH SEEMS RATHER UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE CONU CONSENSUS MODEL. NOW THAT CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED AND RECENT AMSU AND AMSR MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE AN EYEWALL WAS FORMING...EMILIA IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A FASTER RATE THAN PAST TRENDS HAVE BEEN. IN FACT...THE LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...IMPROVING OUTFLOW PATTERN IN ALL QUADRANTS...AND NEAR-30C SSTS SUGGEST THAT EMILIA MAY BEGIN A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION WITHIN THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS. THE RESULT WOULD BE A STRONGER CYCLONE THROUGH 48 HOURS...AFTER WHICH WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DUE TO EMILIA MOVING OVER MUCH COOLER WATER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/1500Z 18.1N 107.4W 55 KT 12HR VT 24/0000Z 18.8N 108.5W 65 KT 24HR VT 24/1200Z 19.5N 110.1W 75 KT 36HR VT 25/0000Z 20.2N 111.5W 80 KT 48HR VT 25/1200Z 20.9N 113.0W 80 KT 72HR VT 26/1200Z 22.3N 115.7W 55 KT 96HR VT 27/1200Z 24.0N 118.5W 35 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 28/1200Z 26.0N 121.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

thunder and the odd few flashes here with a bit of rain

seems the upgrade work is still being done mr s

thanks paul i thought it was my PC yet again hot weather and pc's dont mix well just got an extra 6 fans for it today thats 11 fans in there now

just had the same 4 times IPB WARNING [2] mysql_connect(): Access denied for user 'dbo137762513'@'localhost' (using password: YES) (Line: 131 of /ips_kernel/class_db_mysql.php) There appears to be an error with the database. You can try to refresh the page by clicking here. Error Returned SQL error: Access denied for user 'dbo137762513'@'localhost' (using password: YES) SQL error code: Date: Thursday 20th of July 2006 11:11:20 PM We apologise for any inconvenience

while we have a warm spell just move into the garden keep well warted i tryed a passion flower about 5 years ago from a cutting had it in a pot for 6 months over autum winter poped it outside and had no probs loads of passion fruit every year so if that can make it dont worry about replanting just take a clipping towards autum and replant just incase

warm and part cloudy temp 16.7c Wind Speed: 0.0 mph - Calm Wind Direction: VAR 1024.2 hpa

this is on now dunno if anyone has seen this b4 or watching now

:blush: buy some night vision helps loads the best thing is seek the light all i can offer for you but when you get there you may get booted :blush:

1st one taken 4th of july

24.3c off to the pub garden now

for anyone thats interested 94L-invest