Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?

wolves78

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    399

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Posts posted by wolves78

    Tropical Depression Chris

    in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide

    Posted

    ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL

    TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

    TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 17

    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006

    500 PM EDT FRI AUG 04 2006

    THE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME BROAD AND POORLY-DEFINED WITHIN THE PAST

    SEVERAL HOURS AND THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAD A DIFFICULT TIME

    FINDING THE CENTER AT 850 MB. DROPSONDES NEAR THE ESTIMATED 850 MB

    CENTER INDICATED LIGHT WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS AND ADVISORIES WILL

    CONTINUE. FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 30-36 KT WERE OBSERVED WELL TO THE

    NORTHEAST OF CENTER...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT

    BASED ON THESE WINDS AND AN EARLIER 30 KT SYNOPTIC OBSERVATION FROM

    GRAND TURK.

    NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO DISRUPT ANY CONVECTION

    TRYING TO FORM NEAR THE CENTER. GIVEN THAT THE CIRCULATION IS

    WEAKER THAN IT WAS 12 HOURS AGO...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL NOT

    INDICATE RESTRENGTHING BACK TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS PRIOR TO

    NEARING THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA. INSTEAD IT WILL WAIT UNTIL THE

    SYSTEM ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO IN 2-3 DAYS. THE INTENSITY

    FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TRENDS OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS

    CLOSELY...BUT SHOWS LESS STRENGTHENING NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST

    PERIOD. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY

    CONTINGENT ON CHRIS MAINTAINING A CLOSED CIRCULATION...WHICH MAY

    NOT HAPPEN.

    THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 280/10 KT. THE TRACK FORECAST

    REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED AS CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A

    WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING SOUTH OF A STRONG LOW/MID-

    TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE. TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND

    THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT IS

    SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INITIAL 04/2100Z 21.4N 72.8W 30 KT

    12HR VT 05/0600Z 21.7N 74.5W 30 KT

    24HR VT 05/1800Z 22.1N 76.9W 30 KT

    36HR VT 06/0600Z 22.6N 79.4W 30 KT...ALONG COAST OF CUBA

    48HR VT 06/1800Z 23.2N 82.0W 30 KT...ALONG COAST OF CUBA

    72HR VT 07/1800Z 24.2N 87.0W 35 KT

    96HR VT 08/1800Z 25.0N 92.5W 40 KT

    120HR VT 09/1800Z 25.5N 98.0W 45 KT...INLAND

    Tropical Depression Chris

    in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide

    Posted

    One good thing that did come from the link posted to another forum... A video update (old now though, but relevant!) and description of the current situation. http://radio.nhcwx.com/flghchp/displayimag...um=2&pos=78

    Why can't UK weather forecasts have that kind of feel and detail to them? :)

    Humidity in they "eye" is down quite considerably, at least adding a little credence to the idea that it might be finally forming/clearing out.

    because balir wont spen much on it as he has running eater all the time :)

    Atlantic Tropical Waves

    in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide

    Posted

    Edit - Link from Wolves' forum:

    A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W SOUTH OF 21N MOVING WEST

    AROUND 20 KT. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION

    ARE ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN

    71W-80W. THE WAVE IS MOVING AWAY FROM PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN

    ISLANDS... BUT AN AREA OF MODERATE SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS

    REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...HISPANIOLA...

    PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY

    IS NOW ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH THAT CROSSES THE

    ENCHANTED ISLAND. EARLIER THIS MORNING...SAN JUAN REPORTED 2.78

    INCHES OF RAIN. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED

    THIS MORNING AND SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT

    COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

    AND maybe another

    THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

    THE MAIN FEATURE ACROSS THE BASIN IS THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND

    TSTMS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...HISPANIOLA...PUERTO

    RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH.

    SEE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION. A RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW

    CARIBBEAN AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA FROM AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH

    LOCATED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS

    OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...ENHANCING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE

    CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY RELATED TO THE ABOVE MENTIONED SURFACE

    TROUGH. THIS RIDGE HAS BECOME THE DOMINATING FEATURE ACROSS THE

    E/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. AN UPPER TROUGH

    RUNS FROM A CUT-OFF LOW LOCATED NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS ACROSS CUBA

    AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TO A SECOND UPPER CYCLONE CENTERED OVER

    THE NW CARIBBEAN. ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS MUCH OF

    THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS CUBA AND

    THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. 10-20 KT TRADE WINDS BLOW ACROSS THE AREA

    Moths

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    i only hate the things because i woke up one morning with one stuck to mi face what a git :doh:

    i live by a canal where dragon flys are more welcome and very photogenic moths look better when sqished lovely gold colour :)

    Tuesday 25th July 2006

    in Weather reports

    Posted · Edited by wolves78

    Temperature

    31°C (88°F)

    Dew Point

    55

    Relative Humidity

    33%

    Wind Speed

    9

    Wind Direction

    200°

    Pressure

    30.0

    Sky

    Clear

    Ceiling

    Unlimited

    Visibility

    6.21

    Heat Index

    87

    Wind Chill

    31°C (88°F)

    report from 14:00hrs

    Mmm My Website Is Getting Too Popular

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by wolves78

    Looking like I'm going to have to upgrade my bandwidth

    i think it might have something to do with the webcam as storms look to be about ppl want to see what its like on webcams across the UK i took mine off due to it useing to much bandwidth

    thats just one cause though as google have prob cached it

    Tropical Depression Emilia

    in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide

    Posted

    sm20060723.1430.goes11.x.vis1km_high.06EEMILIA.55kts-994mb-179N-1070W.100pc.jpg

    000

    WTPZ41 KNHC 231440

    TCDEP1

    TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9

    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006

    800 AM PDT SUN JUL 23 2006

    CONVECTION HAS INCREASED MARKEDLY DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...AND BOTH

    CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE EMILIA HAS

    BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED. THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO

    55 KT BASED ON A DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.5 FROM TAFB...A

    DATA T-NUMBER OF T3.5 FROM SAB...AND A UW-CIMSS 3-H AVERAGE ADT OF

    T3.6/57 KT.

    THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT POSITION AND FORWARD

    MOTION OF EMILIA...BUT MY BEST ESTIMATE IS 300/09 KT BASED ON

    LIMITED MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA. A LARGE AND RATHER STOUT MID- TO

    UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.

    AND EXTENDING SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTWARD INTO MEXICO IS FORECAST TO

    WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BUT BASICALLY REMAIN INTACT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL

    DAYS. AS SUCH...THE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY DEEP-LAYER STEERING FLOW

    ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP EMILIA MOVING IN A

    GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION. THE MAJORITY OF

    THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO. THE

    EXCEPTIONS ARE THE GFS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MODELS WHICH TAKE EMILIA

    QUICKLY WESTWARD FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION...WHICH SEEMS RATHER

    UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO

    THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE CONU CONSENSUS MODEL.

    NOW THAT CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED AND RECENT AMSU AND

    AMSR MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE AN EYEWALL WAS FORMING...EMILIA IS

    EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A FASTER RATE THAN PAST TRENDS HAVE BEEN.

    IN FACT...THE LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...IMPROVING OUTFLOW PATTERN IN

    ALL QUADRANTS...AND NEAR-30C SSTS SUGGEST THAT EMILIA MAY BEGIN A

    PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION WITHIN THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS. THE

    RESULT WOULD BE A STRONGER CYCLONE THROUGH 48 HOURS...AFTER WHICH

    WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DUE TO EMILIA MOVING OVER MUCH COOLER WATER.

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INITIAL 23/1500Z 18.1N 107.4W 55 KT

    12HR VT 24/0000Z 18.8N 108.5W 65 KT

    24HR VT 24/1200Z 19.5N 110.1W 75 KT

    36HR VT 25/0000Z 20.2N 111.5W 80 KT

    48HR VT 25/1200Z 20.9N 113.0W 80 KT

    72HR VT 26/1200Z 22.3N 115.7W 55 KT

    96HR VT 27/1200Z 24.0N 118.5W 35 KT...DISSIPATING

    120HR VT 28/1200Z 26.0N 121.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

    Need Help On The Site/forum?

    in Help, support and feedback

    Posted

    Forecasts are down

    The error has been logged and will be investigated.

    sql: -- DBI connect('database=db137762513;host=localhost;port=3306','dbo137762513',...) failed: Access denied for user 'dbo137762513'@'localhost' (using password: YES) at /var/www/html/subs/subs.pl line 1018

    Also, clicking forum link on homepage (or from broken sql db errorpage) doesnt link correctly

    (not that ya's dont know anyways but just incase)

    seems the upgrade work is still being done mr s

    Need Help On The Site/forum?

    in Help, support and feedback

    Posted

    just had the same 4 times

    IPB WARNING [2] mysql_connect(): Access denied for user 'dbo137762513'@'localhost' (using password: YES) (Line: 131 of /ips_kernel/class_db_mysql.php)

    There appears to be an error with the database.

    You can try to refresh the page by clicking here.

    Error Returned

    SQL error: Access denied for user 'dbo137762513'@'localhost' (using password: YES)

    SQL error code:

    Date: Thursday 20th of July 2006 11:11:20 PM

    We apologise for any inconvenience

    Fuschia Replanting

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    while we have a warm spell just move into the garden keep well warted

    i tryed a passion flower about 5 years ago from a cutting had it in a pot for 6 months over autum winter poped it outside and had no probs loads of passion fruit every year so if that can make it dont worry about replanting just take a clipping towards autum and replant just incase :)

×
×
  • Create New...