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wolves78

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    Atlantic Tropical Waves

    in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide

    Posted

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    A TROPICAL WAVE IS ADDED TO THE 12 UTC ANALYSIS ALONG 32W/33W

    SOUTH OF 12N BASED ON VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY AND EARLIER QUIKSCAT

    PASS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED

    ALONG AND BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 30W-33W.

    A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE

    AREA IS ALONG 43W/44W. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS

    NOT EXPECTED AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. A

    CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ON

    THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 42W-45W.

    TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W/80W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WEAK

    WAVE SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE

    IS BENEATH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN...LIMITING

    MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. THIS WAVE IS PROBABLY

    ENHANCING THE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY OVER PANAMA.

    ...THE ITCZ...

    ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 8N32W 8N40W 4N53W. SCATTERED

    SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION DOT THE AREA WITHIN 100/150 NM OF

    THE AXIS BETWEEN 30W-41W AND WEST OF 46W.

    http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2...mp;STYLE=tables

    http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc06/A...umb/Latest.html

    TD2 in EPAC

    in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide

    Posted

    AT 200 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E WAS

    LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.8 WEST OR ABOUT 30

    MILES... 45 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO.

    THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 10 MPH... AND THIS

    GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED

    TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION

    COULD MOVE INLAND BETWEEN ACAPULCO AND PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO LATER

    THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

    GUSTS. NO STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED... AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE

    SYSTEM COULD DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

    THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

    Lightning 2000

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Cheers for that wolves, doesnt say anything about it though so i would take it you have to use Nex storm

    no probs andy just done a quick search seems some sites use it but most of them are out of date last one i looked at was 1999 then 2001 think they need an update :whistling:

    regards

    paul

    TD2 in EPAC

    in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide

    Posted

    crmsone & grey-wolf

    yep i got confused had a few :drunk: lastnight :lol: i moved the world around in one night :blush:

    anyway back to what could be TS BUD

    http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GIFS/HPIR.JPG

    seems to be bubbling away nicely could this be number 2 on the way?

    FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

    AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...

    CONTINUES A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO.

    CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE

    NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH OR

    NORTHWEST.

    Atlantic Tropical Waves

    in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide

    Posted

    BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH

    2115 UTC.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 103W N OF 2N IS DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY BUT

    APPEARS TO BE STRETCHING THE ITCZ N ALONG 105W WITH CONVECTION

    DESCRIBED IN THE ITCZ PARAGRAPH BELOW.

    ..ITCZ...

    ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG...8N78W 11N96W 7N140W. SCATTERED

    MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 6N77W

    6N93W 10N98W 7N109W AND WITHIN 30 NM OF AXIS W OF 132W.

    ...DISCUSSION...

    A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIES ALONG 32N131W 23N127W. A SECOND

    SHORTWAVE LIES ALONG 32N105W 20N96W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS

    NEAR 14N113 WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO BEYOND 10N140W. A RIDGE

    ALSO EXTENDS E TO A CREST NEAR 11N97W. THE ASSOCIATED

    ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CRESTS ALONG POINTS 18N140W 24N123W 21N106W.

    RESULTANT DRY UPPER AIR IS INDICATED WITHIN 270 NM EITHER SIDE

    OF LINE 20N140W 27N123W 23N100W. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM ITCZ

    CONVECTION W OF 85W IS ADVECTED ENE UNDER THE RIDGE WITH A PLUME

    TURNING N OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 18N94W 30N91W.

    AT THE LOW LEVELS A HIGH PRES IS AT 30N134W 1024 MB WITH RIDGE

    SE TO 11N115W. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS IS

    OBSERVED N OF 16N W OF 122W.

    AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER S AMERICA AT 11S67W WITH A

    RIDGE EXTENDING NW TO 7N78W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE UNDER THIS RIDGE

    ENHANCED CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ E OF 80W WITH THE DEBRIS

    MOISTURE STILL SPREADING NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. AN

    UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS S ALONG 80W TO NEAR PANAMA.

    BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH

    1715 UTC.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W/45W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THE

    WAVE IS NOT AS WELL DEFINED AS YESTERDAY BUT THERE IS STILL SOME

    CYCLONIC TURNING EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS FEATURE IS

    ENHANCING CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE AXIS WITHIN THE ITCZ.

    A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE W COAST OF COLOMBIA ALONG 77W S OF

    12N. WAVE PLACEMENT IS ONCE AGAIN BASED UPON CONTINUITY OF THE

    MOVEMENT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AS LITTLE CURVATURE IS EVIDENT.

    ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS MAINLY WITHIN 180 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

    THIS WAVE WILL ENTER THE EPAC LATER TODAY.

    ...ITCZ...

    ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 7N22W 5N35W 4N51W. THE ITCZ

    REMAINS FAIRLY ACTIVE TODAY WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS

    WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS W OF 20W. THE STRONGEST

    CLUSTERS ARE NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 44W/45W.

    ...DISCUSSION...

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A SHARP NARROW UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE NW GULF WITH AN UPPER LOW

    FORMING NEAR 27N86W. AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE LIES JUST E OF THE

    TROUGH COVERING THE CENTRAL AND E GULF. A PLUME OF MOISTURE IS

    ADVECTED OUT OF THE EPAC STREAMING NWD ACROSS THE GULF BETWEEN

    88W-95W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS

    SWATH OF MOISTURE...MOST ORGANIZED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE

    A WEAK SFC REFLECTION AS A TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED. MORE IMPRESSIVE

    ACTIVITY HAS FORMED NEAR THE UPPER LOW N OF 26N W OF 95W.

    DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS...SOME OF

    THEM STRONG TO SEVERE...IN S TEXAS AND THE COASTAL WATERS.

    STRONG SUBSIDENCE DUE TO UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE IS WIDESPREAD

    ACROSS THE GULF E OF 88W KEEPING THIS AREA FAIR TO MOSTLY CLEAR.

    A FEW SHOWERS ARE MOVING INLAND ACROSS FLORIDA. THESE SHOWERS

    ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC TROUGH IN THE BAHAMAS. SHOWERS AND

    TSTMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE IN THE W GULF TOMORROW AS THE UPPER

    PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE GULF

    COAST ON FRI INCREASING THE CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE NE SECTOR.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    SOMEWHAT OF AN UPPER RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN COVERS CENTRAL

    AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IN THE EPAC

    EXTENDS ACROSS MEXICO TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA W OF 87W. AN

    UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ESTABLISHED BETWEEN 72W-87W. BROAD UPPER

    RIDGING FROM A TROPICAL ATLC UPPER HIGH STRETCHES EWARD INTO THE

    CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS ADVECTED BETWEEN THE

    TROUGH AND RIDGES. ONE PLUME OF MOISTURE IS ADVECTED FROM THE

    EPAC OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE GULF. ANOTHER

    PLUME...MUCH WEAKER...EXTENDS FROM S AMERICA TO THE GREATER

    ANTILLES. ELSEWHERE...DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT EXISTS. A CLUSTER OF

    MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE W COAST OF COLOMBIA ENHANCED BY

    THE TROPICAL WAVE. TRADE WINDS ARE NEAR 15 KT IN THE E AND

    CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BUT WEAKER IN THE W CARIBBEAN. THESE WINDS

    WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THOSE MAGNITUDES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS

    WEAK HIGH PRES STAYS IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A RATHER BROAD UPPER LOW IS IN THE W ATLC NEAR 32N70W WITH AN

    UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S INTO THE W CARIBBEAN AND E GULF OF

    MEXICO COVERING THE AREA W OF 65W ACROSS FLORIDA. THIS UPPER

    LEVEL FEATURE IS SUPPORTING TWO SFC TROUGHS. ONE TROUGH IS ALONG

    THE E COAST OF FLORIDA FROM 31N79W TO 23N80W. WHILE THIS TROUGH

    IS RATHER WEAK IT IS WELL DEFINED WITH A LINE OF SCATTERED

    SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SMALL SCALE TSTMS. A STRONGER SFC TROUGH

    IS LOCATED ALONG 32N59W 27N67W 21N71W. A SWATH OF MOISTURE IS

    WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE SFC LOWS ALONG

    THE TROUGH OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS APPEARS TO HAVE

    DISSIPATED. GFS STILL DEVELOPS A LOW ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...WHILE

    THE OTHER MODELS HAVE SLACKED OFF. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER

    TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC N OF 22N FROM 18W-40W WITH THE

    ASSOCIATED LOW WELL N OF THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...LARGE AREA

    OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE E ATLC E OF 60W WITH A 1023 MB HIGH

    LOCATED NEAR 30N40W AND A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 30N51W GIVING THE

    AREA SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS. AN UPPER HIGH IS LOCATED OFF THE

    COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 8N18W WITH AN E/W RIDGE ALONG 8N/9N TO NEAR

    50W SUPPLYING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTION ALONG THE

    ITCZ.

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