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chapmanslade
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Posts posted by chapmanslade
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4 hours ago, Penguin16 said:They haven’t failed? Reading over this forum this winter must have been a dream then. It’s amusing every time they go bust, they get downplayed by those who put most emphasis on how important they are and ramping it only to fall back to the micro vs macro argument. They never factor that in when ramping the prospects. All in all another major fail for the background signals, you can’t polish a turd.
Well how about you put these zealots and turd polishers on ignore and then your day will not be interrupted by their posts seeing as how you consider them so worthless.
Most of those posting on 'background signals' rarely 'ramp' and just discuss trends and suggestions going forward. Some of those who add 2+2 and make 25 from those discussions are the ones you should be complaining about.
The background signals cannot 'fail'. They are what they are (and their predictability is no better than anything else in the models). The only fail comes when folks hang too much on them either through a lack of understanding or a desire for a particular outcome.
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10 minutes ago, Ross90 said:
It was the longevity more than anything else that made it a notable storm here. 10 hrs of 50mph + gusts between 5pm and 3am and 60mph + between around 9:30pm and 1am. The peak gusts were around 70mph but never quite made it into the 70s where I am so it wasn't one of the most severe storms I've seen but it was still a step up from a typical winter gale.
Plus the large area. Usually when the south gets a storm the north is OK but almost the entire UK got a battering, hence the reasons for some plane diverts to Europe.
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11 minutes ago, Penguin16 said:
You’re completely right but some can’t have any criticism of the met office it’s sacrilege. It goes against the entire argument from earlier as to why there wasn’t a red. It’s overnight so impacts are less. Deary me. The UKV model was showing similar gusts for that area all day. It’s a joke issuing it at that time. Who the f is going to see that from the general public. They may as well sent out a carrier pigeon at that time.
Not everybody is asleep during the night. Many people work at night and the information gets used by authorities and Governments beyond the information to the general public.
A red warning was issued appropriately and will have been acted upon by authorities. Red warnings are only issued when there is certainty of severe impacts. They are rightly issued rarely and for short periods at short notice.
As an example Aerodrome Weather Warnings were issued yesterday by the Met Office as part of the warning system, and as we know it was pretty chaotic last night in the aviation world so entirely appropriate.
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1 hour ago, ANYWEATHER said:
Common sense....!
But we do have a warning system in place. If you choose to ignore it then so be it. Common sense doesn't always apply as often it is based on incorrect assumptions.
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1 hour ago, Alderc 2.0 said:
If the Amber warning, or infact no warning had been issued at all last night would you have done anything differently that could have resulted in you ended up in harms way or a life threatening situation?
You are just being contrary now. On the basis of what you have said there would never be any warnings, which is a completely different discussion.
An amber warning was issued and the post storm evidence for Wiltshire suggests that it was appropriate to warn people about dangers on the road / rail / air etc as there were indeed dangers such as fallen trees. Not sure why you have a problem with that?
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12 minutes ago, Alderc 2.0 said:
Completely disagree, your statement is too broad, the storm was not severe for a large part of the heavily populated south where the amber was never needed and never should have been issued, not just my or my next door neighbours back garden.
Further north conditions just about warranted the Amber warning, but I’ve still seen very few (I don’t think there were any) official gusts over 75mph for lowland stations away from exposed coasts. Clearly aviation and ferries where affected along with the trains but again this all very temporary and especially on train front their lazy striking staff cause far more disruption than any weather event we’ve seen recently
I maintain my position too many warnings are issued full stop and like yesterday they are often too aggressively worded and too widespread. Fortunately we have very few true life threatening meteorological events in the UK however the number of warning suggests otherwise i maintain that a ‘cry wolf’ situation is in the making where people just won’t prepare for when something truly impactful and devastating comes along.
The amber warning was completely appropriate for Wiltshire. About 90 minutes of severe conditions yesterday evening with power cuts and roads closed because of trees (A303 and A36)
That is EXACTLY why an amber warning was issued and was correct.
12 minutes ago, RebsAbbo said:Well I for one am still waiting to make a cup of tea! Power lines definitely down (probably because they were only tied on with string in the first place) so impact is real. Power been off for over 12hrs now. Apparently Powergrid are sat in the local pub carpark for support…probably too windy still for someone to go up a pole yet?!
Can anyone make me a brew?
Probably waiting for the line to be confirmed safe before working
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4 minutes ago, snowdog said:
Certainly sounds extremely windy outside at the moment. Windiest it’s been since living in this house for the last 5 years.
Just heard something go crash outside. Some crazy people have put their bins out already for collection in the morning.
Ours put themselves out!
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3 hours ago, Bristawl Si said:
Another fail from Meto for this afters/eve.
Charlie boy on local news yday eve, showed rain affecting area south and east of Bristol. It's been chucking it down last 3 hours.
Was the Met Office yellow warning (including Bristol) not enough for you?
Not sure who 'Charlie boy' is but Ian Fergusson @fergieweather on the BBC Points West was clear about the warning and about the uncertainty over how far north the rain would get. Far from a 'fail'
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20 minutes ago, Andy Bown said:
Arguably the heaviest rain of this ridiculously wet period is happening right now. Blowing onto the East facing windows too so a tight Southerly tracking LOW too.
Not especially warm either at just 5C now. Very heavy rain for the last 3 hours
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14 hours ago, Dorsetbred said:
NOT according to the radar that shows a "wedge" of drier air right over you
Radar shadow not drier air
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23 minutes ago, Isleofwightsnowgal74 said:
As South as the Isle of Wight? I do feel for us we literally need a miracle set up to get snow down here? Assume it’s due to the sea? Any experts that can explain for me please?
You have already answered your own question !
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19 minutes ago, mountsbaysnow said:
Not sure if this is relevant but I have noticed a lot of murmation birds heading east. Could this be a sign?
Murmurations are created by large groups of Starlings, most of which stay in the UK year around with a top up from Northern Europe - so no!
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35 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:
How did the human race survive up to now without warnings?
Stupid comment. Many people died in severe weather events that don't now because of warnings. Never mind those injured that didn't die.
Your contrary views are tiresome
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8 minutes ago, cheese said:
GFS kind of looks like a one-day wonder really with the really anomalous warmth occurring on Saturday only. Obviously just across the channel in northern France it's high 20s for days on end, nothing new there.
Maybe in Leeds, but 5 or 6 days in a row over 20C is pretty amazing for October in the South of the UK
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2 hours ago, Jo Farrow said:
For the day
Lightning maps real time didn't keep up with reality.
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10 minutes ago, Alderc 2.0 said:
Sad news - hopefully he can make a fully recovery.
In my sons football league theres strict rules about playing when thunder is audible. However very difficult to make a call if there’s been no thunder for a while, or it’s the first strike for a new/developing cell or it’s weak storm with intermittent strikes that’s moved in from another area.
Boy, 12, in critical condition after being hit by lightning at school football tournament in Hertfordshire
NEWS.SKY.COM
A man was also taken to hospital following the lightning strike during the tournament at The Sele School in Hertford on Monday afternoon.Plus yesterday the low level misty cloud completely hid what was going on above. Had exactly the same a few years ago in October when outdoors in a fairly cool misty quiet day and suddenly a bolt came out of nowhere.
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16 hours ago, Metwatch said:
Gunshot thunder in Eastleigh, Hampshire.
Nah, that's not gunshot thunder
This is gunshot thunder (excuse my son's language) - make sure you turn the volume right up!
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20 minutes ago, It's a Philcast said:
Strange looking at the lightning strike history around that area yesterday, that theres no recorded lightning strikes showing on lightningmaps.org....or does that site miss stuff occasionally??
There were a lot of 'missed' strikes yesterday. None of the ones we had showed up at all.
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48 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:Completely incorrect. There has been strong cross model support for a significant warm event for the best part of a week now. The only variations are where the boundary of that warm air is (plus or minus a few hundred miles at most on a global model). France remains hot for all of next week now as signalled by the ECM run you said was impossible a while ago.
Your contrary approach is most unhelpful.
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More cells popping up further west now around Crewkerne - all heading NE at quite a lick which is very much at odds with surface conditions where there is virtually no wind at all.
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13 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:
Was watching itv this morning didn't hear anything about thunderstorms just rain.
Well if you listen to ITV weather what do you expect!
3 minutes ago, Andy Bown said:A flash and rumble nearby a few minutes ago. So wish the actual storm clouds were visible!
Heard a rumble here so must be to the east of you from that new cell that has popped up
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1 minute ago, alexisj9 said:
Yes, but for some reason not really mentioned on TV forecasts. Think they went cautious and just forecast heavy rain.
Was mentioned on BBC forecasts (TV and radio) yesterday and this morning
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28 minutes ago, Metwatch said:
Interesting, it's a destabilising warm front rather than cold front, a less common set up I think.
I think it is the trough to the south of the warm front actually that has now moved further north
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4 hours ago, Aiden2012 said:
Just told me he studied weather
I study my naval from time to time
Storms and Convective discussion - April 2024
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
For those of you storm starved in the UK, we had this cracker in France yesterday