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chapmanslade

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Posts posted by chapmanslade

    Storms and Convective discussion - July 2023

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Andy Bown said:

     

    I’ll have a look through my weather recording book a bit later to try and find out.

     

    5 hours ago, offerman said:

    Morning Chapmanslade,

    i just wondered if you can remember a few years ago when when a single cell spectacular afternoon storm ( was pretty much the only storm that day in the whole of the uk)  came from Westbury direction passed nearly over you then over to Cley Hill and on to Longleat and beyond. I think it lasted near on two hours and it spawned before Westbury. 
     

    Think it was 2018 but can’t be 100% but it was incredible . I’m trying to find old radar images of it. May have been September time. It was extremley rare and doubt that will happen like that again just single extremely slow moving cell. 

    Heres a strike i caught that afternoon. 
     

     

    Could contain:

    Look on the metadata for the picture - it will tell you exactly when it was!

    5 hours ago, Dxnielwashere said:

    Had a moderate thunderstorm yesterday finally got something although there was quite alot of lightning I saw I didn’t get any photos of the lightning as the rain blinded me from everything.  I’ll upload the photos I got later but here are my predictions for today…

    Could contain:

    You missed off 'pestilence' 😉

    Storms and Convective discussion - July 2023

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    3 hours ago, offerman said:

    Morning Chapmanslade,

    i just wondered if you can remember a few years ago when when a single cell spectacular afternoon storm ( was pretty much the only storm that day in the whole of the uk)  came from Westbury direction passed nearly over you then over to Cley Hill and on to Longleat and beyond. I think it lasted near on two hours and it spawned before Westbury. 
     

    Think it was 2018 but can’t be 100% but it was incredible . I’m trying to find old radar images of it. May have been September time. It was extremley rare and doubt that will happen like that again just single extremely slow moving cell. 

    Heres a strike i caught that afternoon. 
     

     

    Could contain:

    I remember your picture and remember the storm. Couple of big CG's over Corsley about a mile away (maybe even that one) caught the attention.

    Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    4 hours ago, Summer8906 said:

    A "European climate cliche run" I call it. Terrible in the UK, not great in Scandinavia, vast areas of perhaps over-the-top heat elsewhere in Europe.

    Hopefully one for the bin in more ways than one.

    If only we continued to have an easterly with low pressure to the south of us, which would bring nice weather to northern Europe and moderate the temps (and bring rain they desperately need) to Southern Europe...

    A lot of Southern Europe has endured an extremely wet early summer, a product of the anticyclone over the UK trapping the low pressure over Spain, southern France and Northern Italy. Many rain records broken and I think they have probably had enough of it now!

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    7 minutes ago, Metwatch said:

    Tweeted this out last year but during the hottest day on record last year at one point, several places in England were hotter than all places in France and Spain, chances of that were probably next to impossible before last year during summer as such intense heat moved north after impact southern Europe.

    True, as for the preceding 3 or 4 days the heat in France was extreme, I had to endure it! That was where the UK heat came from. There were 4 consecutive months (June, July, August and September) in France last summer where 40C was breached, the first time that had ever happened.

    • Like 1

    Storms and Convective discussion - June 2023

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted · Edited by chapmanslade

    Currently in the Charente and a lot of elevated convection kicking off here. Cloudbase must be 5k ft or more. Had one out of the blue massive CG half an hour ago but plenty more to come this evening and through into Monday

     

    Sea temperature will make no difference to this stuff, it is popping up new cells in Biscay as I write

    • Like 3
    • Thanks 1

    Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    17 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

    As i understand it, the sun only needs to come ouit for ten minutes or so to make temps rocket... so 25/6c for a few minutes in an otherwise lower 20c odd.. ? maybe?..

    3C to 4C per hour is possible with the high sun at this time of year. Humidity will slow it down but then also give it a higher starting point and warmer feel.

    Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    44 minutes ago, In Absence of True Seasons said:

    And weather warnings for 'extreme heat' are/were being released. Laughable really. 

    I knew the temps would be downgraded closer to the time, they have been this entire year whenever a hotter spell has been forecasted. It's why I raised a brow when murmurings of "30c!" on Sat/Sun started appearing a couple of days back. No way it was gonna hit 30, the set-up just isn't there for it, especially outside of the West. It's still legitimately cold in the mornings and evenings, and we're struggling to breach 20c most days.

     

    43 minutes ago, Alderc said:

    Also the UKV is completely uninterested any sort of convective outbreak before this time. Almost completely dry Friday night and Saturday morning. 

    So there you have your answer

     

    You are looking at raw model data not forecasts. Friday night is already difficult to forecast with considerable variation between models on how much convection there will be. If there is a lot then there will almost certainly be a lot of cloud around on Saturday morning in a very humid airmass which means it could hang around a while and supress temperatures. If there isn't it will probably be scorching in the SE on Saturday. 

    Also we are currently NOT in the warm humid airmass and so this explains the cool mornings @In Absence of True Seasons - It is comfortably in the 30's today in France where the air is coming from for the weekend.

     

    • Like 1
    • Thanks 1

    Storms and Convective discussion - June 2023

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    Just remember there a LOT of things that can 'go wrong' with storm forecasts - so don't start screaming 'bust' before, during and after the event!

    There will be plenty of storm activity in France on Friday moving north, these may well be relatively elevated (cloud bases 5k ft) so unaffected by sea temperature, but they may also spill a lot of cloud north that will supress temperatures on Saturday. 

    • Like 6
    • Thanks 1

    Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by chapmanslade

    2 hours ago, viking_smb said:

    it all depends how far the low comes towards us, looking at the UKMO fax charts for thurs, it has a cold front coming from the south which i have never seen before, so not sure how this will pan out.

    20230603.webp

    Pretty standard summer Biscay cut off low pressure actually. Ahead of the cold front the S/ SE flow will advect warmer air north over the UK. Warm front could stimulate elevated convection over the SW

     

    Give this a read A Guide To ... Thunderstorms In The British Isles | Storms & Severe Weather (netweather.tv)

     

    • Like 6
    • Thanks 1

    Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    2 hours ago, Alderc said:

    The 06Z GFS run is dreadful for warmth. A couple of high teen days during the weekend and then a cold high takes over before it elongates and sets up another raging easterly advecting cold pools towards us. Not a sniff on anything remotely warm or pleasant.  

    Edit to be fair it looks like being a massive outlier, however GFS is again going down the route of cold outlier after cold outlier.....Not a god trend. 

    Indeed

    Could contain: Chart, Plot, QR Code

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Summer8906 said:

    I suspect when people say "warm" they mean "settled, sunny, and not cold for the time of year". 14C, dull, wet and windy might meet that definition on temperature, but not the other attributes, It isn't really many people's idea of spring weather; it's autumnal, not spring-like.

     

    Autumnal 😆 We had everything now when Spring is called Autumnal!

    April showers anybody? The weather we are having now is EXACTLY what Spring is, with sudden downpours, warmth then cold as the PV wanes.

    • Like 6
    • Thanks 2
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