Summer of 95
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Posts posted by Summer of 95
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9 minutes ago, Snowyowl9 said:
Places that normally get snow have missed during this spell..The slackest of winds ever..
Shrewsbury did have a massive shock to the system in december 2017 with that foot of snow..
Freezing fog most of today,sunny this morning and coldest night since feb 2021 -5.6c and a max of -1.3c..
Yes December 2017 was the one, the only one in the last 35 years where we hit the bullseye. It was beyond a shock to the system, the two best setups (a correctly aligned Cheshire Gap streamer and what I call a Bristol Channel Low*) happened one after the other. With none of the mysterious turning to sleet/rain/non sticking snow or just dying out as it reaches Shropshire which happens time after time.
As for this spell, 1 or 2cm would do to redeem it at the moment (as long as everywhere else doesnt get 20!)
*Like the Channel Low but tracks 50-100 miles further north. Tends to put us in the main precipitation area on the cold side. Rare but always look out for it in models
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Bone dry again. Still frosty (not turned damp like yesterday) but why oh why does here keep avoiding the snow?
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Its snowing lightly but is very wet and is barely sticking to a few places like Mostly just making everywhere damp- cannot believe the ground can still be too warm after 4 days and nights of hard frosts. Theres been no sun today either to warm it up (not that it ought to in December) And its sticking in other counties at the same elevation. Shropshire's ability to avoid 90% of snow by any means possible, even if it means defying science, really is a special talent!
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Looking grey to NW, radar showing something has got over the Welsh hills and is falling around Oswestry way...
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It is actually snowing, 1 x 2mm flake per square metre but it's snow. OK Google you're taking on the Shrewsbury Weather Lottery
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Google phone alert now telling me to expect snow around 2100... it's usually quite accurate with the timing, let's see how it does with the precip type!
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12 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:
okay on fronts/troughs, can snow at -1/-2 if a SSE/SE'ly wind, 4th Feb 2012! convective though for proper snow needs to be at highest -10, Feb 2021 around -9 and just wet snow off E'ly
Never snowed here on 4th Feb 2012, rained at -1C! But 12th March 2006, now that was a decent snowfall off pretty "mild" uppers. Seemed to be you either got snow off one or the other of those two events in the Midlands (the eastern limit of settling snow in 2006 was almost exactly the western limit in 2012, comparing the two scientifically would make very interesting reading if anyone fancied it!)
But back to now, it's definitely subzero, had iced over where the sun was earlier even before the anomalous shower and still is now. Granted it wouldnt have given much as it was light and brief, but anything else tonight now is surely going to be snow. Cannot see where any liquid precip would come from
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11 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:
Uppers need to be -10
Honestly never used to be. Seen snow with -5 and higher many a time before, yes I've seen rain at -8 too but only with temps +3 at the same time (those PM setups with crazy lapse rates). Even knowing the climate round here is bizarre it should be snow with -6/7/8 and below 0 at surface level surely?
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How on earth have I just seen light sleet? Temp has gone back below freezing since sunset, pretty sure dewpoints have been subzero all day (dried up where the sun melted the frost), and uppers are surely cold enough if not as cold as they should be in this set up. It wasnt ice pellets, definitely sleet. What the????
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36 minutes ago, mother nature rocks said:
Just had a quick look outside and defo a few flakes on top of the frozen cars. Nothing to write home about but snow nonetheless
Yes exactly the same here! Definitely a few flakes fallen, ground is spotted with like 1 white dot every 6 inches.... usually would be no evidence at all of what was obviously a 2-minute flurry but the first time I've seen any snow on the ground since April 2021
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Midnight and it's been crystal clear with no wind since dusk. And still it's not freezing at all, apart from on the cars (always the first place and an artificial surface). Ground still muddy, pavements still wet, bins still covered in dew water. It's late November. I would swear that even 10-15 years ago it would have been frozen everywhere by 7pm in these conditions.
Upper air temps as I understand don't matter when it comes to frost forming on clear nights in the colder part of the year, too much cloud or wind (used to need a strong wind from a warm direction) were the key factors.
This has been a pretty consistent feature here since 2013, clear calm nights in the coldest months failing to give frosts (or just dipping below zero at dawn, or falling below early and rising again). Unless there is snow cover, almost nonexistent since except for winters 2020-21 and 2017-18 . Or except for some reason towards the end of the frost season, late Feb/Mar/April when it still often happens even if the days have been much milder (late Feb 2019 and April 2021).
The standard clear frosty Nov/Dec/Jan night, often in between runs of rainy and/or mild days, with the frost forming after sunset and lasting till morning, with no snow cover or very cold airmasses; a regular occurrence even in mild winters before 2013- is becoming very hard to achieve.
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Any chance of an air frost? Latest date for the first one here in last 35 years is 1st Dec in 2009, that seems under threat now. Last night I thought might do it as it was clear and calm but no (a recurring theme since 2013)- cloudy "failed easterlies" wont give much chance of one either, just 5C day and night.
That fortnight without sunshine in December 2021 is still fresh in the memory.... Please not again!
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Two events stand out for autumn 2016:
1) the afternoon of thunderstorms on the 13th September. One of the very few memorable storm events of the 2010s round here and saved that month which was otherwise an awful SE/the rest horror show (didnt top 26C here all month and was often dull while they had days in the 30s)-
2) The 15 minutes of carnage on the 17th November. By far the strongest wind I have ever seen turned up at midday out of the blue and ripped tiles off rooves, snapped trees in half and blew garden furniture across the street. And then it was calm and sunny... and a few miles south of me in town it didnt happen at all. It was a band of intense winds about 5 miles wide that crossed the country (was reported as tornadoes but I think Torro concluded it was some other kind of setup) and here was in the middle of it.
The rest of it I dont recall much at all. For some reason I thought the day with the red sun was October 2016 but it was actually 2017!
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The yellow warning for thunderstorms has expired and we have had a few bits of drizzle and light rain while it was in effect for 48 hours.... Just about enough to wet the ground but not to soak in. There hasn't been a rumble within at least 25 miles of here that I'm aware of.
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Talking of the splits, where that line of rain has parked itself all day pretty much defines the area that ends up on the wrong side of both kinds of NW-SE splits; those that favour the NW like last summer and those that favour the SE like now.
And it's been raining virtually non stop here today...
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Absolutely my least favourite setup in summer. Divide from the Bristol channel to Lincolnshire that has not moved all day despite the wind direction being right to push the crud eastward, they have 30C and sunshine we have had rain and drizzle since 6am and 10C cooler. Like a classic 2007-12 heatwave
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Can't deny we need rain, but how on earth have we still had no thunder here this month (and only 1 day this year) with all these hot/cold air battles going on? Been raining on and off this morning, had a pretty heavy shower on Fri afternoon, rained around 10 last night too, felt distinctly muggy, but no rumbles still....
Hardly seen the sun since Tuesday either. This month now looks likely to end up duller than average unless we get a really sunny last 6 days. It's not a classic summer thus far at all, even with record high temps and low rainfall for many of us. Way too much cloud and not consistently warm. Best thing that can be said is it hasn't been as boring and rubbish as winter 2021/22....
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3 minutes ago, Maz said:
...if it doesn't happen in London or the SE it hasn't happened. Does that mean London provisionally gets the overnight minima record then?
Didn't they disqualify a potential Scottish record because of a parked car on a nearby street a few years ago? While the 747s and A380s and the M25 and M4 traffic and the huge buildings all around the station at Heathrow don't affect it obviously....
There is also the issue that Britain has a very sparse network of official stations compared to many countries, such that records could easily be missed (are there any in Wales that are both well inland and below 150m? Like in the Severn, Wye and Dee valleys for instance which must be able to get hotter than Hawarden nearer the coast)
Today it is already warmer than the same time yesterday, the hazy murky stuff seems to be clearing from the south as the satellite suggests so we might well beat yesterday, even though we didn't get a tropical night (I dont think Shawbury ever has despite the Shropshire cloud phenomenon). Incidentally the temperature range yesterday here was 22.5C (13 to 35.5) which is easily the largest in the last 30 years, beating the 20.6C in late Feb 2019.
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Shawbury apparently reached 35.5 according to Roger Brugge's site which would be a new record if confirmed. Wonder what Preston Montford or other sites in Shropshire (they do exist) made? Tomorrow seems really up in the air as far as being hotter or not is concerned, it depends how quickly the breakdown comes.
Anyone remember the pre-2006 era when hot spells often used to break down from the N rather than W? The cooling was more dramatic, often with big storms but it didnt concentrate the hottest temps in the east/southeast so much
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The wind has actually been blowing hot air, that's very unusual round here for sure. A bit more of that altocumulus has appeared in the last hour though 2-4pm were largely cloudless, the question is what will tomorrow bring? Will the cloud hold off until at least 5pm in which case we might go higher, will we get a bang, or will we just get a load of murky muggy rubbish a la 10th Aug 2003 or 1st July 2015?
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Hawarden often seems anomalously warm in summer when compared to places further south and more inland like Shawbury and even around Birmingham. Or further east and inland like Manchester. It doesnt seem like it ought to get fohn effects like the N Wales coast either (the high ground is to the W of it, there's none for miles to the S or SE). There must be a very local effect of some kind there?
Shawbury currently showing 35C, record is 34.9 in 1990, so could have beaten it although the 37 forecast looks unlikely now
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Just now, davehsug said:
There's quite a lot of convection going on
I'm far from convinced that it's going to remain dry.
Look at that mass of cloud that's appeared on the east Irish coast. What will that pick up as it crosses the sea? As others have said, more connective cloud here than expected. Some Cu mixed with the AC and seems to be trying to grow upwards. It's quite low too, 4-5000ft I'd guess so around the 850hpa level unlike yesterdays cloud which was 20000ft ish
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Today not really going as they said, aside from the spots of drizzle overnight it's so hazy that the sun is barely showing and doesnt seem much chance of hitting the 31-32 forecast for here unless it brightens up. In fact it's beyond hazy, I'd now call it overcast. How many times does that mid-high level cloud turn up and keep the temperature down in forecast hot spells round here.... Yesterday and Friday were also some way cooler and cloudier than forecast although not totally cloudy.
Tomorrow/Tuesday might yet produce something extraordinary but this so far has unmistakeable August 2003 overtones (a near total let down round here if you were expecting sunshine and record temperatures as forecast)
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Midlands Regional Weather Discussion
in Midlands Weather Discussion
Posted
I'll give you that, decent event here, most snow since Dec 1995 at the time- as I've said before that was the anti-4 Feb 2012 (east limit of the lying snow in March 2006 being almost exactly the west limit in 2012).
That Sunday last November on the other hand when we had hours of cold rain in Shropshire while Cheshire, Staffs, Birmingham, E and S Mids had heavy snow at lower elevations than it was raining at in Shropshire......