Summer of 95
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Posts posted by Summer of 95
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7 minutes ago, Supacell said:
Back home now after todays chase.
It was a day of mixed emotion. At around 5.30pm I found myself torn between tracking a cell that was moving over Oswestry and away from me or a storm that was moving up towards Telford and likely to hit me head on. The Oswestry cell was closer, but the Telford cell was moving towards and not away from me. I obviously decided to choose the one that was coming to me. But at the point when I committed to intercepting that cell, the storm over Oswestry went mental. Unfortunately there was not a lot I could do about it now, it was too far away.
So I headed down to the village of Shawbury where I parked up with the view of a dark sky to the south and almost continuous quiet grumbles. As I was watching a flash of lightning occurred behind me. It was from a cell that had formed just behind me to my north, but was moving away from where I was. I decided to watch the cell to my south some more, a decision I would probably regret.
As the Telford storm came closer it became apparent that it was now heading more north than northwest, and was missing me. The winds were really picking up and there were occasional close flashes and rumbles, but I decided to head northwest towards Whitchurch in the hope if getting properly into it.
Unfortunately I now found myself behind it. I say unfortunate because the roads were flooded and it was hard to keep a pace. The traffic was moving slowly due to flooding and at one point I was stuck behind a tractor for what seemed like ages (but was probably 3 minutes). On radar it looked like the storm had grown into a huge cell with the northern part now moving into Chester as I was driving under the southern part of it near Whitchurch. I seemed to be under the storm according to the radar and the rainfall but the lightning seemed quite feint and so not sure if it was a distance away or just quite high in the clouds. The rain was immense though and was accompanied by a gusty wind which was blowing twigs off the trees onto my car. No wonder the roads were awash!
I then ended up taking a wrong turn and whilst I thought I was heading north towards Chester I was heading west towards Wrexham and away from the storm. By the time I realised, the storms had pushed too far away and I never caught them back up. I put it down to being hot and bothered, it wasn't a cool day and I don't have aircon.
Anyhow, I'll probably be doing it all again tomorrow. Not had chance to look at charts or forecasts for a few hours but if things haven't changed from earlier then the SW Midlands may be a good shout.
Here 5 miles N of Shrewsbury, about the same W of Shawbury and about 12 miles SE of Oswestry and S of Whitchurch we got.... jack all. Heard thunder to the east and west, saw lightning in the distance to the west, while it was bone dry here. It rained lightly for about 15 mins twice, barely enough to wet the ground. Probably got less than 1mm of rain which was not thundery (it was after the storms had gone 5-10 miles away in every direction). Another special epic miss for this area!
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32 minutes ago, cheese said:
It’s just ridiculous that the muck is so strong and extensive - you’d think living in Bristol you’d be safe from any North Sea crud, but nope. It’s unstoppable.
It seems so random and unpredictable a) whether it forms b) how extensive it is and c) if, where and when it burns off.
Here for the last week (over 100 miles west of the North Sea):
Tue didnt appear
Wed burnt off about 10am
Thurs about 2pm
Fri didnt disappear till about 5pm
Sat didn't appear at all, practically unbroken sun
Sun gone by 10am
Today broke up about noon
The key for this area seems to be how it interacts with the southern end of the Pennines, about 30-40 miles NE of here. It either wraps around them and goes all the way to Wales (we get the clag), or deflects off them and goes no further west than Birmingham (we stay clear).
I always study the satellite pics when it shows up. Have done for years. On occasion they have shown it extending over the Pennines and Welsh mountains, as well as into SW England. (A few times, eg August 2021, it's even got to Ireland). The only area in England and Wales that seems almost totally immune to North Sea Muck is the western side of Cumbria, which is doubly shielded (by the Pennines and Lake District). It also seems especially unpredictable in the far south; often it stops at the Thames but sometimes it spreads down to the south coast and along it, occasionally all the way to Cornwall.
And the unpredictable nature of the burning off; it isnt always to the east coast. Sometimes in burns off in the other direction, or in random places.
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8 hours ago, SunSean said:
Final table
Cornwall had a May 2020.
South West England and other Western areas did really well for sun.
South East ended mostly decent but not so much for the East.
Yorkshire didn't fare so well!
Probably be a similar chart for June too since the "West is best" pattern is looking to carry on for a bit longer at least.
Also to note, I don't think Herstmonceux is a great representation of East Sussex since Eastbourne, who don't do daily sunshine totals apparently, always come out as one of the sunniest places.
Also, was West Yorkshire really that dull??
I've noticed many a time that Herstmonceux often seems anomalously dull and Manston anomalously sunny (and dry) compare to the other SE locations.
We got off lightly round here, it's not often Shawbury is that high up in the warmer half of the year. 221 there is more than any May between 1997 and 2018! There wasn't even one over 200 between 2001 and 2016.
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Been sunny here since late morning, must admit I wasn't hopeful when I saw the North Sea muck had got all the way to Wales overnight.
This month has gone over 200 hours now, which I would never have expected after the first 10 days. Even though the highest temp has been just 21C (second lowest for May so far since 1986) the second half has at least been very good for sunshine.
This spring can be summarised here as quite good at the very start and end, with a long 6-7 week spell of absolute rubbish in the middle (from mid-March to early May)
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1st, 2006. Easy winner for me, had the only really decent summer of the decade and also had its biggest snowfall in March. Seemed to be by far the least "Atlantic dominated" year of the decade, August gets mentioned as disappointing but it wasn't as bad as 2008, 2010 and several other 21st century Augusts. Then summer came back in September. The only really poor month I remember was May, which was horribly wet.
2nd, 2001. Had a taste of winter at both ends, a decent sunny dry May and that record warm October. Also had a couple of good thunderstorms. The summer could have been better (it wasn't awful, just very average although there were a few brief heatwaves). Only really bad months were April and September.
3rd=, 2004 and 2005. Can't split them, although they were totally different. 2004 was better for winter weather and 2005 for summer. Both were pretty decent for thunderstorms, that's something we dont say round here much nowadays.
5th, 2003. Not a vintage year around here at all really. This area missed all the snow in January and most of the summer weather too (look at the sunshine average maps for August and summer and see why I don't rate it...). The April warm spell was the most notable thing of the year really, September was also quite good and March very sunny. The dry October was also welcome after years of wet ones.
6th, 2007. Loved that April. August was pretty good by 21st century standards as well. There was that 3 days of snow in Feb surprising us in a very mild winter..... then we come to May, June and July. Over 400mm of rain in three months when we average about 650-700mm a year. In truth it came in a few great deluges with drier interludes (especially the first half of June), which combined with the much better August means I dont rate this summer as bad as 2008 or 2012. But even so it did lead to 6 years of awful summers.
7th, 2009. Like 2003, people in other areas seem to rate this year more highly than I would round here. The February spell wasnt as spectacular here as in London (it wasn't a complete fail, but it wasn't as good as Jan 2013 for example) and much of the year was mild, cloudy and quite boring. July was a shocker, the late June warm spell wasn't particularly sunny and August though dry was never particularly warm. Then there was a very wet November and we managed to miss virtually all the snow in December somehow (and most of it in Jan and Feb 2010 too). Not a great year in these parts.
8th, 2000. A lot of horrible weather. April and Sept-Nov especially, though the summer wasnt great either with just that brief warm spell in June. First half of May was pretty good as I recall, it did go cold right at the end of December, but Jan-Mar were tedious beyond belief- mild, quite dry and snowless.
9th, 2002. Very, very monotonous. Once the leftover snow from Dec 2001 thawed on Jan 5th, there was no more winter. No real warm sunny spell in the summer at all- it was just mostly cloudy from May through August (June was especially boring). Late March and April I seem to remember having some half decent weather, September was dry, the less said about Feb, Nov and Dec the better.
10th, 2008. Absolute pig's posterior of a year. Even round here to have falling snow in 6 separate months but no lying snow all year takes some doing. As does having under 100 hours of sun in August. And September being one of the dullest on record too, but still being sunnier than August. Both were duller than February... May promised much at the start but the second half was so bad it ended up duller than average as well. As did June and July...
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1 hour ago, B87 said:
Going nearly 2 years without seeing 25c at a low level site in England is almost unthinkable.
It's not like Shrewsbury is at a high elevation, and 25c isn't particularly impressive in mid summer.
Maximum temperatures in 1993:
Shawbury 24.9
Shobdon 24.8
Hawarden 24.8
Crosby 25.0
Birmingham 25.5
That really was a dreadful summer for heat, though it was not as dull and wet as several of the 2007-2012 bunch. It also had round here the earliest last-20C day in the past 50 years (1st September).
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Finally reached 20C yesterday- 252 days since the last time. Longest spell since 1985-86 and third longest in 50 years.
What about 25C? Last one was 15/08/2022.The five longest ones for that since 1973, and the date to beat them:
351 days 21/06/1974 to 06/06/1975 (2 August)
354 days 20/08/1997 to 08/08/1998 (5 August)
357 days 17/08/1987 to 07/08/1988 (8 August)
363 days 01/08/2001 to 29/07/2002 (14 August)
And in the lead...
635 days 28/09/1992 to 24/06/1994 (12th May 2024)
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19 minutes ago, reef said:
How did 1987-88 do in your neck of the woods? That one was 273 days here. Last 20C was 21st September 1987 and we didnt hit 20C again until 19th June 1988.
19 minutes ago, reef said:How did 1987-88 do in your neck of the woods? That one was 273 days here. Last 20C was 21st September 1987 and we didnt hit 20C again until 19th June 1988.
21 September to 13 May so not as long as this year.
1971-72 would be interesting to find out, I suspect it was reached round here in early October 1971- Trevor Harley's site says it was 25C in Wales- but May and June 1972 seem to have been very lacking in warmth (nothing over 21 anywhere in May or 23 in June apparently) Unless April which is just mentioned on that site as "very average" managed it.
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247 days here now since the last 20C at Shawbury on September 12th 2022; an early date for the last one of a year, only 2 years earlier since 1994 (2010 11th Sept, 2012 9th Sept).
Now the longest gap without a 20C this century, beat the 245 days from 03/10/2014 to 04/06/2015 yesterday. The only two longer spells without a 20C in the last 50 years are now:
256 days 01/10/1985 to 13/06/1986- 26th May this year to pass that
261 days 20/09/1982 to 07/06/1983- 1st June to pass that
Not since before 1973 has a mid-September to mid-May period failed to reach 20C at all. 2022-23 has done it.
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On 10/05/2023 at 13:36, Summer of 95 said:
Last 20C round here (Shawbury) was on 12th September, 241 days ago.
Longest gaps in the last 50 years:
242 days 8/9/1975 to 7/5/1976
243 days 27/9/2004 to 27/5/2005
245 days 3/10/2014 to 4/6/2015
256 days 01/10/1985 to 13/6/1986- 26th May this year will pass that
261 days 20/09/1982 to 7/6/1983- 1st June or later this year to beat that.....
With no 20C in the forecast here for the next week, a place in the top 3 for 2022/23 looks pretty odds-on. If there is no late May warm up could 82/83 even fall?
246 days today so the longest period round here without a 20C since 1985-86, and now the third longest in 50 years; reached 18 on Saturday but back cooler again now.
Also noting this is the first time in at least 50 years to have gone from mid-September to mid-May the following year without a 20C. The years we had to wait until June all had 20C later the previous year. It isn't normal, whatever monthly mean temperatures might suggest.
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Actually escaped with a reasonable amount of sunshine today, especially this afternoon with the sun to the west where the clearer skies are. A really nagging wind that kept the temperature pegged back at 16-17C though, it seems that just as April struggled to get out of the 11-14C rut, May can't get out of the 15-19C one.
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1 hour ago, Weather Enthusiast91 said:
Seriously had enough of the rain now. My garden is looking more and more like a jungle as I haven't been able to do any work on it yet this year.
If we end up with another dry summer, on this occasion I won't complain. Anybody who does I'll scream.
Finally got the strimmer and hedge cutter out yesterday. Lots of gardens looking very overgrown and I cannot remember all the woods and fields being so muddy at this time of year before. They are like it's December or January, complete quagmire in many places.
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Last 20C round here (Shawbury) was on 12th September, 241 days ago.
Longest gaps in the last 50 years:
242 days 8/9/1975 to 7/5/1976
243 days 27/9/2004 to 27/5/2005
245 days 3/10/2014 to 4/6/2015
256 days 01/10/1985 to 13/6/1986- 26th May this year will pass that
261 days 20/09/1982 to 7/6/1983- 1st June or later this year to beat that.....
With no 20C in the forecast here for the next week, a place in the top 3 for 2022/23 looks pretty odds-on. If there is no late May warm up could 82/83 even fall?
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Thunder, lightning, hail from that lot that went through between 1430-1515ish. Got soaked walking the dogs but nice to at least be out of the no storms club at quite an early date for us, even if I'm still in the no 18C club let alone the no 20 one!
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1983 with what seems like a really cold Feb-May period in between a very mild January, hot summer (record warm July until 2006), mixed autumn and mild December. It's almost before my time (can just remember a few snippets of the July, and I think the snow in Feb) but it seems a strange year.
Was there an SSW or something early that year? The drop in temperature between Jan and Feb was huge, and it basically didn't warm up at all until June... then came that July. I think 82-83 was a strong El Nino as well??
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Loads of people around saying how "lovely" and "warm" a day it is....
It's 15C, 7/8 overcast and has been all day, with a few bits of sun trying to get through since 1pm- in an anticyclonic SE'ly in early May.
That proves we have had weeks on end of utter tripe, whatever the stats say!
Loads of people around saying how "lovely" and "warm" a day it is....
It's 15C, 7/8 overcast and has been all day, with a few bits of sun trying to get through since 1pm- in an anticyclonic SE'ly in early May.
That proves we have had weeks on end of utter tripe, whatever the stats say!
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Doing it this time purely for this area:
January 2014
February 2020
March 1992 (dull, damp and lacking in either serious cold or any warmth. A kind of March version of April 2023)
April 2000 (2023 quite a close second, 2000 for being wetter. 2012 and 1998 are out because both had some snow)
May 2015 (complete waste of a month, didn't reach 20C at all- even 2021 and 1996 managed that.)
June 2012 just beats 1997 as it was duller and cooler. The absolute June from hell would have the first half of 2012 and second half of 1997. Or maybe that's too bad even for there, it's supposed to be hot in hell.
July is a hard one, first 1988 was ahead, I also considered the equally wet 2009. I think I've nominated both on similar polls before. But 1988 wasn't actually too bad for sunshine. July 2010 was just so disgustingly dull at the height of summer and was still wetter than average. It goes in this time.
August 2008. Beat off stiff competition from 1992, 2010 and several Augusts that ruined a good summer (2006, 2014, 2018). All three summer months below 100 hours of sunshine. Surely that can't ever actually happen even round here???
September 1994. The worst overall of the 4 successive poor Septembers 1992-95. 2017 definitely the worst of the 21st century followed by 2001.
October- 1998, 2000 and 2019 are in a very close race. 2019 "wins" this time.
So 2000 "wins" for November instead. I've said 2002 in the past but here in Shropshire it doesnt seem to have been as grim as it was up in Newcastle where I was at the time.
December- new nomination, 2021. Revoltingly dull, a fortnight without sun at one point when it was often chilly but not cold, it lacked snow and went very mild at the end. Can't put 2015 in as it was so extraordinary.
What does this year give? Temp/rain/sun for Shawbury:
Mean temp 9.77C
Rainfall 1132mm
Sunshine 1014.7hrs
Driest month 52.7mm, sunniest 152.5 hrs, only 3 months above 100 hrs sun and 7 with over 100mm rain.
First day over 20C: 20th June
Max temp 26.0C on 10 July
25C reached on 2 days
Last day over 20C: 2nd September
Lowest max 5.0C on 19, 21 and 22 Dec
Lowest min -4.4C on 21 Nov
No lying snow
Wow. Never thought I could make a year quite that bad from actual months that happened!
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Sun has made an appearance again bit still loads of cloud just lurking. Feels warmer definitely but mostly because it's so humid. Think we have made the 16C at last (was 15 at midday) but I would be surprised to see 18
Edit: Not so sure, Shawbury was 15.7 at 1200UT but back down to 15 on the latest Metar. And I think they have been a bit warmer than here yesterday and today due to being in the sun more (clearer to the east both times)...
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And now it's raining, not classic April showers but that soaking fine stuff you get off slack lows in November
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15 hours ago, Don said:
It would seem Shrewsbury often gets the short straw weather wise?!
Lol you couldn't make it up... here's the latest satellite
And yesterday afternoon's
Where do the masses of cloud cross each other? Yep, right over here. Completely overcast now after giving us hope with some sunshine this morning.....
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Completely cloudy again after some sunshine this morning and it was finally starting to warm up.....
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Thought it was finally trying to clear here about 5pm but the cloud actually got thicker and now drizzling. Not topped 15C today, and still not reached 16 this year....
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Absolute mickey take, that line of cloud refusing to budge when you can clearly see the sunny bit less than 10 miles to the N and NE. Lovely afternoon around Whitchurch and Market Drayton by the looks of it...
While if you look towards Shrewsbury...
(These pics were taken from about 7 miles N of Shrewsbury, about 1 1/2 miles NE of where I live)
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Blue sky starting to appear but rarely finding the sun, still stuck at 12C and the wind is still coming from the N. Will need a big change this afternoon to hit the 17C that was forecast
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Storms and Convective discussion - June 2023
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted · Edited by Summer of 95
That lightning strike map now saved on my phone for posterity. The best Shrewsbury Area Weather Hole I have ever seen, even beats any snow one. And there have been some corkers over the past 20-30 years (hello winter 2009-10). Especially given it was there on the rainfall radar too... Smack In the middle of a continuous line from Wiltshire to Fort William and this area still missed it. Unbelievable even by our standards!
Any chance it could be filled today? Been mostly cloudy so far, leftover muck from everywhere else's storms yesterday