sunnijim
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Posts posted by sunnijim
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Thunders Was that looking West?
Had a hail producer that turned the ground white at 6pm together with straight line winds of 38mph gusting to 57mph.
Some of the wildest weather in some time.
Looks like the same cell that bought a large tree down in Hassocks and blocked the road ,power lines down too.
Recap: Road closed after tree falls during high winds
WWW.THEARGUS.CO.UK
A road is closed after a tree fell in strong winds.-
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Probably already been said here but the last reversal in early March has thrown up nothing but mediocrity with the block too far NW to bring us any colder weather.
Not that it would have been much more than cold rain and snow on Northern hills at this late stage of proceedings had the block been better positioned.
The misery here would have been palpable had the warming synoptics been wasted like this in January!
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.....A few of still hanging around in the nightclub after last orders hoping that there might just be hope of taking some eye candy home at the 11th hour before the doors close on yet another fruitless chase.
# March model discussion
#Winter 23/24
#90sSaturday nights.
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Rain All Night
half century.
Will edit
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nick sussex There has been a few notable snow events that have lasted in my lifetime in early to mid March. ( just reached my half century on the planet)
Twice around the timeframe on offer ( second week of March) once in the third week ( 2018 mini beast)
By lasting, I mean snow sticking on the South Coast and not melting by day.
We really are in a last chance saloon, and absolutely everything has to go right in terms of an imported cold pool to avoid the repeats of half baked wintry weather that the Winter will be remembered for,n the South at least.
Funny time March, one eye on models looking for the first sniff of warmth and half a foot in the convective discussion!
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Big hail producer has caused carnage on my local Motorway.
Reports of hail on the ground 2 inches thick.
Updates as four people taken to hospital after 15 vehicle crash on M23
WWW.THEARGUS.CO.UK
We are bringing you live updates after multiple cars were involved in a crash on the M23-
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UK weather warnings - Met Office
WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK
Met Office UK weather warnings for rain, wind, snow, ice, fog, thunderstorm, lightning and extreme heat.Somthing of a "Nowcast" warning from Met Office issued at 0229am this morning as 64mph gusts landed on the Isles of Scilly.
We have had gusts here in the last hour that compare with any of the named storms this Winter.
55mph, 58mph and 57mph.
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A TORRO watch too
The Tornado and Storm Research Organisation (TORRO)
WWW.TORRO.ORG.UK
TORRO is a privately-supported research body specialising in severe convective weather in Britain and Ireland-
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UK weather warnings - Met Office
WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK
Met Office UK weather warnings for rain, wind, snow, ice, fog, thunderstorm, lightning and extreme heat.Could get lively tomorrow....
Thunder; hail and gusts of 70mph possible.
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In a tribute to the late, great Steve Wright and the iconic Mr Angry.
What better morning to give a view on this waste of Winter than a walk in the fog and drizzle well in keeping that the dross that has been a staple diet since November.
4/10
That would be my score.
I should just say that I am a fan of all things 'interesting' weather wise, not just a snow chase.
So named storms, thundery downpours, and of course cold sunny winter days with snow an added bonus.
4/10 with the bar set so low that a few wind gusts of 60mph and some decent frosts and cold sunny days in December and January.
Named storms have amounted to diddly squat here and the snow chase has amounted to somthing akin to dandruff on my dressing gown as I stepped outside to inspect it.
I'm aware that some parts further North had a decent fall ( peaks in December) and one named storm caused local impacts over Ireland and Scotland.
I'm never setting the bar at a 62_63 winter or a great storm of 87 but this year really has seen all potential from models downgraded to cheap sausages instead of steak.
A muddy puddle this morning.
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TEITS Models starting to sniff out a reaction to the progged SSW on the 19th/20th maybe?
Would be a rather quick reaction but not impossible, effects normally take longer to show their hand.
Alot would need to fall into place to stop a slushfest at this time of year.
2018 landed on the 22nd Feb, if this scenario has legs then it is my opinion that we will be looking at the weekend of 24th/25th as an arrival time.
First time I have felt moved to get a little interested in cold possibilities since the early January farce.
Perhaps because date wise, SSW wise, memory's of 2018 come flooding back.
One last chase perhaps that could save a winter that promised so much and produced so little ( for most) from being consined to the bin.
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11 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:
60mph doesn't normally ark the lines opposite my house, that's how I know
All we can go on is the gusts recorded at official stations if we are holding an inquest.
60mph is actually a generous round up of gusts, most didn't get that close.
That's not to say that a local gust near you didn't go a touch higher, but surely you can't deny the facts as they are written.?, overall 55mph seemed to be the height of it.
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31 minutes ago, Jo Farrow said:
Maybe that is for the Regional discussion group rather than Storm Jocelyn 24 hours ahead? Also Met Office warnings are not based solely on numerical limits, especially in one location. They look at wider impacts. The process has flaws but it does need some understanding. There can be heavy rain outside of a Rain warning area, Snow the same. This was the matrix for Isha
Hi, well aware of how the matrix works being a weather geek and not Joe public...
It wasn't intended as a bash, actually on the Isha thread I defended the use of Amber over England,after the event had a lesser impact than expected over England.
This was purely the potential for irony if the aforementioned gust(s) do occur tomorrow.
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So, Amber achieved 49mph as the highest gust at my local station Shoreham for Isha.
Can Joceyln go higher with not even a yellow in place?
M.O going for 50mph at Wednesday midnight.
GFS say 59mph..
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With the benefit of hindsight here is my take on why winds were at the low end of any predictions over England
The original position of the Low some 10 days ago was to cross Southern Ireland with the centre over Southern Scotland.
Corrections North over the coming days never really altered the progged winds to any great degree over England.
As others have said, instead of benefiting from the tight core around the Lows centre to generate high winds we became reliant on squall lines and high pressure playing ball over the continent to squeeze the English isobars.
Three things seem to have occurred, the high over Europe a little further South than progged, the Low further North and no squalls.
So the extremes moved North into N Ireland and Scotland.
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34 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:
Yeah cause normal for the pylons to ark with low winds, the where very gusty here, but no station to pick it up. Probably lea winds or something.
Who said anything about low winds?
It was a wild and blustery night.
There is nothing wrong with cutting through the hyperbole and stating facts; and they are facts, not just Wishful thinking that continues to try and back a now defunct idea that gusts went higher than 60mph in the SE widely.
Models were about 10mph over the top.
Even Langdon bay only managed 59mph as its highest gust.
If anyone can produce evidence of higher gusts, fine but let's not start shooting people down if they don't have the populer view of it being a remarkable event.
There was plenty of that here last night as members dared to say winds speeds were unremarkable etc.
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A very unremarkable event in the SE both on coasts and inland.
Gusts no higher than 55mph to 60mph.
Amber warning unnecessary , but given model projections understandable.
Data more widely over Northern Ireland the far North of England and Scitland shows 70mph to 80mph gusts recorded in places .
Exposed headlands and mountain tops coming in with a couple of higher gusts.
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4 minutes ago, ChannelThunder said:
Starting to ramp up a gear here. Rain and wind slamming onto my south-facing bedroom window.
The best possible weather to fall asleep listening to
So true.
A heady combination here of wild gusts, the wife snoring, and cat meowing as I lie in bed eating chocolate.
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1 minute ago, Thunders said:
Alright thank you. It’s getting really loud now here. Are roofs supposed to make a clicking sound
Some enthusiastic gusts.
Not sure what they are, would guess in the 50mph to 60mph range now.
Thinking the direction of the gusts a little more impactful as it sounds pretty horrendous but speeds not unusual.
Something different.. almost like downblasting
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Highest gusts so far.
Capel Curig, Wales: 90mph
Loftus, North Yorkshire: 76mph
Killowen, Northern Ireland: 76mph
Mumbles, Wales, 75mph
Emley Moor, West Yorkshire, 75mph
North Wyke, Devon, 74mph
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26 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:
Hello all, interesting afternoon/evening coming up, I will be watching closely for something I've noticed in recent storms - the accuracy of the GFS in predicting gusts. For the past few storms, I felt it was the only model to absolutely nail the intensity of the wind.
If my theory about the GFS is correct, then 65-70mph gusts may be quite commonplace between the M4 and southern Scotland this evening regardless of inland/coastal (which is an increase of about 10mph on the Met Office warning), with 80-85mph possible on exposed coasts in the North West.
It is here in the North West that I think a red warning may be possible, touch and go though and of course Sunday evening isn't the most active of times so that might prevent the red warning.
I was a little surprised the Met Office didn't just blanket the whole of England in an orange warning, seems it could be quite stormy anywhere.
From zero to hero the GFS, first to identify this storm and stick with it with other models slowly falling into line, the recent cold spell GFS there first and the early January storm that produced a 69mph gust at Heathrow and 80mph at Exeter, yes GFS there first, again the much heralded ECM late to the show.
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1 minute ago, cj114 said:
Just remembered the '87 storm. My friends Son went into their Bedroom saying "Dad, there's a Tree in our Garden", Dad "We have lots of Trees Son", Son "But it's not our Tree!"
Yes
" mum, dad, nan and Grandads conservatory chairs have just flown past"
The destruction of the wooden conservatory next door saw everything within it take flight lit by live power cables falling all around.
A night that will forever live in the memory.
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19 minutes ago, chris78 said:
I'd say the objections to warnings are more evidence of a nannying attitude, a sort of infantalisation of the public. Warnings come with caveats and likelihood attached, that leaves mature rational adults with the information needed to make plans or change plans if they wish to.
I'm not sure anyone is objecting to warnings?
The assumption that the population are all mature rational adults is open to some debate as is that folk rushed off their feet have time to study caveats.
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38 minutes ago, IanT said:
It’s winter here in the UK.
A storm can be a storm without being historic.
A cold spell can be a cold spell without being historic - as we have just seen.
Would it benefit us to return to a time when forecasts were forecasts without hype?
Totally with you on this.
However I would suggest impacts are likely from this one so warnings are required.
We could certainly point to many of the yellow warnings in the past as being unnecessary and evidence of the nanny state we live in.
When somthing a little more serious pops up as is the case today your 'average jo' is completely desensitised and sets about their life safe in their knowledge that it is a big fuss about nothing!
We can only hope that when a storm comes that is worth warnings 80mph to 100mph) and occurs during a rush hour people are taking their phone apps and news broadcasts seriously.
As I said earlier, pay attention to the M.O now.
Where they have the strongest warnings is where the highest winds will be.
People still cherry picking random model runs to show their back yard might be worse than expert predictions and where the highest winds will be
If you switch from yellow to Amber today then you will be in for a rough ride, not historic, but watch out for that flying trampoline!
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Storms and Convective discussion - May 2024
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
Alderc 2.0
I have held my ratings as I could have got carried away with the storm rating last night.
Took an elevated position up on the South Downs watching the cells generate to the SE of me.
The lightning display was 9/10 and up there with anything witnessed over the channel ( although the majority C.C lightning)
That is where it stops in terms of quality, my area to the East of Brighton had a miss in terms of overhead thunder ( most of it in the channel) and we missed the intense rainfall.
Looking at the lightning returns it seems the majority of it stayed in the channel ( Eastbourne an exception and areas near Worthing had a bit more on Land)
Also areas further inland picked up more lightning.
So if I'm to be honest in the cold light of day and rate the storms imby I can't go higher than a 6/10