MildCarlilse
-
Posts
127 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by MildCarlilse
-
-
Here we are now.This could easily be a snapshot of a cold day in September or May...
-
Lest we forget how 1st of March 2018 looked like, with regard to Winter running late...
-
4
-
-
29 minutes ago, tight isobar said:
aye !!??
I assume then that serious cold will be overnight lows of -2c in central England,+3c over Scottish Borders and incrementally higher all points north of said. (as a southwest drift off the Atlantic will be the weather maker in these parts if charts verify)
-
2
-
-
53 minutes ago, shaky said:
Yup could be some serious cold nights under that high pressure!!cold and crisp during the day as well!!perfect for some snowfall a week or so later!!
Could you define or quantify 'serious cold nights' with regard to this stage in January,current and recent synoptics, your location and in respect of the last 50 years?
-
3 hours ago, Steve Murr said:
I was just taking a trip down memory lane to the start of the historic Winter 1947 -
Look how flat the ridge was to start with coming out of the atlantic!
Can these models be believed? Who knows what the 850’s looked liked then.Can they be verified?
-
1
-
-
53 minutes ago, IDO said:
The GFS 12z more in line with my thinking for the next 2-weeks:
The tPV concentrated; with the Russian and Pacific Highs aiding and abetting that pattern.
No doubt we will get the odd op run going off on one, as some of the GEFS have been doing, but no clear sign a pattern change is imminent and until then I am expecting the worse.
So, cold rain in the W/NW'ly flow for most, with high totals possible again, unfortunately. It does depend on how much the Pacific High oscillates as to the ebb and flow of the vortices to our north. A blocked pattern TBH but not the one we wanted, with low-potential for HLB'ing in our region.
A west/northwesterly flow I will take.Snowfall incoming for all Scottish ski areas.It’s not the blocking scenario we’re looking for but a pattern change looks closer.Just one low sinking south and we are there.
-
I believe climate change is happening faster than the experts are prepared to admit.One beast from the east makes not an ice age but rising global temperatures mean a return to the days of Ivan the Red,who visited Greenland when Greenland was green.
-
What is noteworthy about this Festive weather is the lack of rain and the attendant pressure stagnation.Oh and as it looks set to continue I would suggest whether one is looking for cold or otherwise,it has the potential to be historical.Had the orientation been further north etc etc then it may have been very cold just now.The best to you all and I look forward to the conclusion of this essentially blocked pattern in remaining weeks of Meteorological winter.
-
1
-
-
2 hours ago, CreweCold said:
Some people are never satisfied.
To me, even for N of Birmingham, it looks like mid-high 20s are fairly widespread for much of the time.
I don't understand why we all have to be dripping in sweat for some people to feel pleased by the output?
This thread has become the south east of England heatwave thread.I personally do not wish for temperatures above 21c and the model output of recent days continued to show lower pressure and less settled conditions north of the Scottish Borders.Up here, the breakdown happened a few days ago and with not much 'heat' or wall to wall' sunshine being forecast for us up here in the foreseeable, it would be respectful to remember that the UK is not restricted geographically to london and the south east.
-
5
-
1
-
-
-
55 minutes ago, mother nature rocks said:
Gfs looks pretty sublime this morning. A possible ‘blip’ of a breakdown around 18-21 July but yet again high pressure looks ready to pounce. Then again a jump of about 500 miles further east we will never be out of it.
What a cracking late spring/ summer this is turning out to be!!
As I said the other day all this heat should be hard to displace!!
Actually all it took to 'displace this heat' was a small cold front which moved across Scotland yesterday.
-
1
-
-
18 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:
Yer the easterly the other week was exceptional cold and like you say it proves we can still get deep cold and a proper easterly . I do think this year is a turning point for a run of colder winters . We have had a cluster of milder winters and now I think we will have a cluster of colder winters. ?
I do think this year is a turning point for a run of colder winters . ...It certainly is for many parts of Scotland.
-
1
-
-
13 minutes ago, cheese said:
Currently -20C in Moscow, falling to -25C. Not sure what you're talking about.
I know exactly what he is talking about.In that Easterly of January 1987,the cold spell was well forecast and the temperatures around Moscow were around -30c.As the air moved west it crossed the North Sea which was around +7c and the end product visited this country at around -5c through the day.The heavy snow showers were persistent and accumulative.
-
1
-
-
The main model discussion thread has become the southern England cold break down thread,so is this perhaps the place to discuss what the models are showing? Looking back on similar scenarios is probably the best way for anyone struggling with model projection,given that the channel low is appearing in F1 ( and it is in F1).As many have alluded to,these upcoming conditions have been only dreams for a good few years now and as they take a grip on the country it remains to be seen what happens both locally and nationally.The big breakdown (as progged by GFS) might never happen and until we get this week up and running,it’s best to keep one eye on the models and the other on historical data,which is reality fodder.
-
1
-
-
3 hours ago, Stuart said:
you wont do that well with a northwest winds I found that out when I lived there
Agreed.Wish the BBC proggings were more accurate.They had lots of snow showers for here yesterday.Precipitation=0.Big fail.
-
Still nothing in Galashiels?
-
BBC proggings for snow showers in Galashiels area Wednesday...actual snowfall=0.Yesterday BBC proggings for Sunday snow showers in Galashiels area...actual snowfall=0.Weather forecasting ‘profession’ must unique inthat you can be in error infinitely without fear of reprimand.Looking forward to snowfall fail number 3 this Tuesday.Proggings smoggings!?
-
23 hours ago, Mildcarlisle said:
Anyone else share my view that since the SSW was forecast,the model thread has become the Fantasy Island thread? I understand the anticipation and excitement of the SSW and the 'potential' ramifications thereafter but almost all output being shown and discussed is all in F1.I hope we do get the protracted cold easterly and dreams sometimes come true but for now they are dreams even at a point of cross model agreement on day 10.
23 hrs later and the reality of dabbling and peddling F1 scenarios bites back.
-
23 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:
Troubled times ?? And he also said there would be no easterly .
But there is , isn't there .
My friend,the easterly is there,over south east England and based on those charts,hardly blocking is it?
-
1
-
-
In these troubled times I quote loosely John Holmes and his opinions of what the 500mb charts were showing...no blocking.
-
1
-
-
13 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:
Because everyone loves to chase cold snowy charts at 240hrs ?. To be fair John the reason the most of us are chasing them is because in the next 5 to 7 days it standard boring weather . What is there to discuss ?? We all want proper winter weather for once . Like tonight's ECM .
Many of us in Scotland have already had proper winter weather this season so far and not just once my friend.As many down south chase this easterly as the great deliverer of snow,we in Scotland have done very well from the new winter friend,the northwesterly.An easterly is only as good as it’s accompanied allies...temperature,temperature and temperature.If these are low (pick one) then the results will follow.
-
1
-
-
The Leadhills thaw...
-
4
-
-
I'm confident that the big snow drifts on the A7 around the Fala hill area will survive until the next cold spell at end of week.
-
Earlier.
Also saw the red hue the sky adopted,was waiting on a sonic boom from an asteroid.-
2
-
Model output discussion 02/02/20
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Also,Spring tides set to join the party.