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swfc

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Posts posted by swfc

    Model Output Discussion

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Given the high has not even built over the uk i find some posts quite strange regarding the vsituation next week.????.Just see how it pans out because its certain the outcome will be quite aways from the current output.The outlook is good compared to the last few weeks and at worst it will be more seasonable.

    Model Output Discussion

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    After seeing ecm earlier today was nice to see an upgrade.gfs as ever is showing arctic conditions later on but for all the talk of it being a know go its there for a reason.What will it bring later.???.Cant see an upgrade but you never know.In my humble opinion the ukmo is the one 2 follow in the reliable time frame.Paul hudson did say tonight that an exciting spell of weather could be on the cards for next week,thats blown that then. :mellow:

    Model Output Discussion

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Thanks all.

    I'lly try an asnwer all those questions in one.

    Synoptically, we have a view how January should pan out. This involves the GWO responding to an increase in angular momentum over the next 2-4 weeks as poleward fluxing of the forward inertia generated by recent (ongoing) tropical convection, much of which is now located towards the Dateline supporting a -NAO signal. In theory this wil send the GWO from phase 4 (where it is now and likley to remain over the next 7 days or so) towards low amplitude phases 5-6-7-0. This is critical as the composites for these phases in January:

    Phase 5

    Phase 6

    Phase 7

    Phase 8/0

    So we are looking for an evolution shown by the anlogs for the 3-wave pattern and GWO which would be expected for the Atlantic to undercut any block forming over Scandinavia aiding retrogression of the high back towards southern Greenland. This is a sign that El Nino is influcing the pattern although the crucial thing here is that overall angular momentum is low and momentum rise is from a low base.

    In laymens terms, the weather to be expected would be for cold an frosty for a time, turning colder with the easterly stiffening but also the Atlantic trying to make inroads from a southerly tracking jet so milder interludes may just be possible although the boundary between cold and mild air masses is not possble to call at this range. Thereafter, we should move towards winds coming more from the north-east and then north bringing the colder weather back with wintry potential during January although as the GWO composites suggest, there is likely to be a lot of high pressure around bringing dry and frosty weather.

    The crucial thing to watch over the next few weeks is just how much cold air is trapped over mainland Europe as this will have direct implications for us during January.

    Great post.Just a quick question.What is the importance of warm air been pumped up into the north.???.Back to the models and dry and cool looks the order of the day to me which will be most welcome

    Model Output Discussion

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    yep- but its more than that a HUGE Omega block setting up-

    In terms of the UK- instead of a sinuous jet flowing west to East we get a small arm going around Greenland, hence the shear on the atlantic system & the undercutting shortwaves-

    For all the pessimism we are not that far from a great set up-

    S

    ECH1-192.GIF?29-0

    YES-impressive-- almopst the sausage transient special t'up north-

    S

    Hi steve ,as you say not a bad run run but not quite the push from the north east towards the end of the run and quite a strong area of low pressure in the atlantic.Would you see that low going south east and the high moving westwards.Excuse my limited knowledge

    Snow Watch: East Mids, Lincs And S & E Yorks (inc. Humberside)

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    South East - Tonight and early hours

    Accumulations: 15-25cm

    East Anglia - Tonight and early hours

    Accumulations: 15-25cm

    Yorkshire (Humberside/Lincs/East Midlands - Tonight and early hours

    Accumulations: 15-25cm

    North Yorkshire/ North E England - Tonight and early hours

    Accumulations: 5-10cm

    My forecast/predictions

    As we can all see snow showers have started to push in off the north sea and pentrate well inland. The same will continue tonight, but with a wider scale of heavy/prolonged snowfall possible. A trough will push off the north sea hitting the east coast. Areas South from around North yorkshire right the way down to London could see some fairly heavy falls of snow bringing significent accumulations in areas, typically although not exclusively to east yorkshrie - lincs - and the SE.

    I expect the trough to hit these areas around 11-12PM tonight. With heavy snow showers merging together to give longer spells of snow from around about now.

    Rang home and they have had a small covering, at my relatives in hull (Cottingham) we have had lots of heavy snow showers, not amounting to much. I dont think they can stick yet because of ground temps. This will soon change.

    I made a map below to support my estimations.

    post-4342-1233508306_thumb.png

    Hope your right mate.Radar at the moment is poor. :wallbash:

    Snow Watch: East Mids, Lincs And S & E Yorks (inc. Humberside)

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Hi SWFC, I think the light snow flurries will arive here in Sheffield at about 4pm and the heavier showers will start to really move in around midnight.

    Although we are not the real East, I still think we could do pretty well out of this as the showers tend to stall over us due to the pennines to the west. Adding to that, we are rather a hilly city, especially areas in the west, such as Dore, but even some more urban areas, for example, I live up round the Manor Top which is about 200m (Eastbank Road tops out at about 215m asl too).

    Hopefully the main event will come Monday night for us from the organised band of PPN. We should have a little room for manouevre here as if the GFS predicts correctly then we should be ok, especially with our altitude but if the UKMO is correct then we are far enough East not to worry about missing the PPN altogether.

    If I were to stick my neck out, I would have to say we should recieve at at least 10cm between Sunday night and Tuesday morning :)

    I hope that helps!

    Cheers,manor top always seems to get snowed up. :D
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