swfc
-
Posts
5,060 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
2
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Everything posted by swfc
-
You do make some good points. Growing up from the 60s and witnessing some great wintry periods i guess forecasting then was shorterm. Nowadays ssw, easterly qbo etc give more direction in theory. Getting that into a reliable time frame is still a roll of the dice imo
-
Model Output Discussion - Cold spell ending - what next?
swfc replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Morning. Looking at the gfs at 10pha the tpv looks quite weak. Not my field bit why isnt the mo showing a weaker pv?? Tia -
Morning, has the model output thread vanished??
-
Cant wait tbh. Suspect it will be similar to the 12z gfs/ec. Who knows tho could be epic
-
Im awaiting nws det on the 12z ec? Isn't that same as the op? Things look ok cold wise ie 850s but nhp wise id hang fire, dry powder folks
-
Crazy on here. Things look ok but chill out
-
It's one run boss, relax
-
They cant scott in all honesty given previous winters. Plus its early January caveats date wise
-
Thought you put low pressure
-
Be carnage nicksuspect things will level of over the next 48/72 hours
-
Or two
-
Gone from deflation to elation on a set of 12z runs. "Gfs op is cannon fodder, ecmw struggling, gem is the dogs and the 144hr ukmo is stunning"All this again in a frantic set of posts even tho the tho sensible thing would be to" ignore all ops and stick with the control and means". Come on chaps the outlook is still good without all the chuckle brother antics
-
Regional thread will also be more helpful ie info
-
In all honesty its pointless getting wound up over. The nhp is looking better than it has for many a year esp being January. There is extreme cold to the north and east. If your going to analise every single run on all the models then your in trouble. Sometimes less is more esp if your awaiting ice flows and polar bears marching south on the m1. Relax
-
Yep its not worth worrying about really given lifes woes
-
-
Thanks
-
-
Its in fi. You wete sticking with ukmo a few days at 144hrs.gfs was rubbish and ec was average on winter stats +???
-
A lot or most charts are available on here and metiociel etc. Im not sure posting 8 week charts and ec 46 helps much when the ops, means and control charts hsve large variants. Imo 144 hours possibly in this set up is enough although the strat at 10pha has been accurate within its parameters.
-
Hmm hopefully
-
I agree mate. The problem is after many years generally the output post 10 days mixes out. Its like going fishing with all the expensive tackle and equipment. You sit there for hours then some kid walks past with just a rod and lands the big fish.im optimistic but wary pal Y.
-
Good points. Id be of the opinion that it will turn a good deal colder ie frost, fog"because of the saturation rain wise"but the orientation and positions of heighths is paramount. All to play for given the pv displacement, heights and fi air flow direction and 850s. Theres still the matter of shortwaves but if the heighths get well into Greenland then the next bout of strat work could keep things ticking over
-
Even with great synoptics the 500hpa are way to high even with projected 850s. Looks very dry and there's not much instability in the atmosphere. All that said the bricks are being laid on the rd
-
It is nws. Id be going anywhere between another 72 hours before lighting any fuse
