Typhoon John

My thoughts last month were leaning towards 54/55 as it seemed to have the most similarities overall. But 55/56 is also a very good match. I'd happily take either Winter as both seem to have been fairly decent for my location.

http://raleighwx.eas...wx.com/MJO.html this link? Works ok for me. You need to look at what phase the MJO is in or where it is forecast to go. Like in chionomaniac's post above, the MJO is forecast to head towards phase 4 and then ultimately phase 5: http://www.cpc.ncep....EFS_membera.gif Looking at the the composites, scroll down to the mean monthly 500mb Height Anomalies for Phases 1-8. Under phases 4 and 5 look at the charts for October, this shows the pressure anomalies that are likely to be observed under this MJO phase, at this time of year, based on data from the last 60 years. So the two charts we get are: http://raleighwx.eas...toberPhase4.gif http://raleighwx.eas...mbAnomalies.gif That's pretty much in line with what we have been seeing from the models. I think it might be the other link that wasn't working properly, try this: http://www.esrl.noaa...ata/composites/ This is just a page that lets you interrogate the reanalysis data yourself. But you need to know what variables you're using. So if you want to plot the 500mb height anomalies based on the GWO you'd need to feed in the octobers for the years when the GWO was in the same phase as present, i.e. phase 4. http://www.esrl.noaa...gcm/gwo_40d.gif But it's not something I use all the time, so there maybe easier ways to do it.

You can get MJO composites here: http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/MJO.html Not sure if GWO is available like that but you can construct the composites yourself using this site: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/printpage.pl if you know which data applies.

Just to note that I've changed my name so all my previous entries for the year are down as fozi999.

I think there's a strong chance that SOI will get above +30 over the next few months with more favourable conditions and the La Nina really taking hold. Perhaps back to neutral sometime next year.

I know, first for something! Although I have had to experience some releatively snowless Winters during the 2000s. But it's generally a very snowy place, we often get significant amounts of snow and it's bearly mentioned on the national weather.

A provisional 10.5C from me.

It would be interesting to know with the exact same setup what the temperature difference would be today due to UHI. I suspect it would be significant.

Monthly averaged sunspot numbers for 1954, 1955 and then 2010 so far. You can make your own comparisons but it looks quite similar to me, i.e., minimum conditions. YEAR MON SSN DEV 1954 1 0.2 1.3 1954 2 0.5 1.8 1954 3 10.9 13.7 1954 4 1.8 3.8 1954 5 0.8 2.4 1954 6 0.2 1.3 1954 7 4.8 4.8 1954 8 8.4 6.9 1954 9 1.5 3.0 1954 10 7.0 7.0 1954 11 9.2 13.9 1954 12 7.6 8.8 1955 1 23.1 11.7 1955 2 20.8 12.9 1955 3 4.9 6.8 1955 4 11.3 11.9 1955 5 28.9 17.6 1955 6 31.7 22.1 1955 7 26.7 16.1 1955 8 40.7 26.1 1955 9 42.7 27.3 1955 10 58.5 37.2 1955 11 89.2 34.9 1955 12 76.9 13.8 2010 1 13.2 7.3 2010 2 18.8 9.3 2010 3 15.4 7.0 2010 4 7.9 8.3 2010 5 8.8 9.0 2010 6 13.5 7.8 2010 7 16.1 6.8 2010 8 19.6 11.9 Source Adjusted 10.7 cm Flux is similar too. Source

54/55 looks about the closest analogue for the Winter to me: Pressure anomalies: December January February Combined That year had frequent snow events from December throughout the Winter and across the country but generally snowier further North. I'd think compared to recent times (last year excluded) it would be considered a very snowy Winte. The Feb CET was 1.2 and the AO and NAO for the DJF was negative. PDO, ENSO, QBO and Solar conditions were similar to this year (so far) and the only difference was a cooler Atlantic than we have now. The other shout would be 55/56 but while similar there are more differences to 2010 than 54/55. So based on that I'd expect something fairly similar this year but perhaps a bit warmer and a bit less snowy due to the warmer Atlantic. Temps and rainfall below average and slightly above average snowfall throughout the DJF period .

We have loads of bats nearby and I enjoy watching them fly about. There's some tall trees, an abandoned college and a specially built bat house nearby so there's plenty of places for them to live. I've not thought about putting up bat boxes, like I say, they seem to be thriving here so perhaps no need to but I'm thinking about some bird boxes ready for next year. I also have a few foxes about and at the moment we have a badger that likes to cut through the garden. The power they have is incredible, it's managed to pull up paving stones and break a hole through the fence.

Cookie, where is this image from?

You'll think I'm blowing my own trumpet here but a good call I think, setup looked right. Closest and strongest since Gaston (2004) i think. Interesting coincidence that Gaston (2010) is following the storm.

Sub 9.5 looks well within reach then considering the longer term indications, i.e., high pressure dominance through Autumn/Winter 10/11.

Will interaction with the land pull Earl towards the coast? A bit like when driving a car if you run through standing water with the passenger side you will be pulled to the left. Does land provide the extra friction which means that Earl will be pulled further West?

I think I'm way off this month going with 13.1 but it's too late to change it now. I think something nearer 14C is more likely.

Interestingly, on Look North at lunchtime they claimed Shap got down to 1C last night.

NYC a possibility? The idea of a hurricane there really interests me from a weather point of view although clearly it would cause huge damage, which is not good.

13.1C please

Isn't the part mixing of the La Nina with warmer waters a usual characteristic of La Ninas?

Just to be clear: no I am not. I'm talking about your assumption that the silent majority would disapprove of the behaviour. I'm not so sure they would.

I understand what a silent majority is, what I was getting at was that you don't know that they would disapprove. I'm struggling to think of anyone I know who'd do anymore than laugh it off and forget about it.

Not that I totally agree with the what the other posters said but how do you know that the silent majority would disapprove?

I think he's great and as usual it seems to be a typical mountain out of a molehill type situation. Let's see some more: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2HtEmhMfz7M From about a minute in. And the full Attitude shoot on his Facebook page: http://www.facebook.com/album.php?aid=183394&id=317108370465 He should do the weather forecast in those shorts!

I don't think we'll have the sustained cold this Winter but there's a good chance of some very severe cold outbreaks. The Arctic is cooling off early, jet is to the South, La Nina/oceans sending us cold, large polar vortex likely and an early SSW could knock all that cold down to the mid latitudes. Just a question of where will it go?