Typhoon John
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Posts posted by Typhoon John
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It seems to have calmed slightly, but it's all quite exciting.
I hope it's not dark when/if it blows.
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I'll go for 2.8.
Probably a bit optimistic though.
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I think one could say that this is record breaking
30 hPa warming not too far behind
Can we assume that these measurements are accurate and will not be subject to revision?
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Cosmic rays from 01/01/2000 to yesterday.
I'm not sure if we can link the increase in Cosmic Rays to more frequent or stronger Stratospheric Warmings.
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I was just looking back over the zonal temperatures anomaly time series for 1985 and the doesn't appear to be much if any sort of lag between the warming and the height rises to the north in January.
I may be wrong but if it is true it may have been because it was a strong warming like this is forcast to be.
That's exactly what I think might happen, and I don't think the models will pick up on the correct pattern until the last minute.
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Looking at the current conditions I think there's a chance the warming could propagate down fairly quickly and start impacting the troposphere earlier than usually expected. If it occurs it will be interesting to see how quickly the models pick up on the changes.
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Just come back to Durham from Stanhope, through Frosterley, Wolsingham and Crook. Some nice snow falling to Frosterley but wetter by Wolsingham. Very wet after Crook and non-existant back here in Durham, the shower seems to have died.
Unfortunately I wasn't driving otherwise we would have taken this route.
Edit: Spelt Frosterley wrong two different ways!
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It looks like there have been some fun and games at Chiaten today.
http://volcanism.wordpress.com/2009/01/19/...ent-at-chaiten/
Only a matter of time?
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It's probably solar cycle 23, the fact that they're still appearing indicates to me that this extended minimum is far from over.i dont know if anyone follows solar activity or where to post about this topic?
but what ive just seen is very strange indeed.
A new sunspot is emerging inside the circle region--and it is a strange one. The low latitude of the spot suggests it is a member of old Solar Cycle 23, yet the magnetic polarity of the spot is ambiguous, identifying it with neither old Solar Cycle 23 nor new Solar Cycle 24. Stay tuned for updates as the sunspot grows.
perhapes cycle 25 lol.
perhapes massive change within the sun possibly even lower activity or meaning 25 could be the start of some pretty cold winters.
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I think the point is being missed here. I don't really care if the arctic is the most ice free it has ever been (I suspect there's less than 1906 but that there's been less than now at some point). Surely what's more important is whether the ice can grow again to the highest levels ever recorded. IMO they almost certainly will.
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It's the 22nd coldest first week to January since 1772 and the coldest start to January since 1997 (1st to 7th Jan 1997 was -0.8C).
In fact the first week of January 1963 was warmer than the first week of January 2009. I certainly didn't expect to be writing that a month ago.
Of course the 2009 figures are provisional and the 1997 figures are final. Recently we have seen consistent downward corrections to the cold temperatures. Assuming the latest cold spell follows that pattern then imo 2009 should end up with a colder first week than 1997.
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I think that's a much more sensible prediction but still probably at the top end of what is likely. It needs an increase of sunspots from now to be accurate and as we know the sun is currently flatlining. The longer there are no spots the lower the eventual sunspot maximum will be IMO.
And in reference to my previous post, I said that the December sunspot number was 1.5 when in reality it was only 0.8.
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Of course they did which is why they forecast a below average December......
this rather childish behaviour towards the METO is rather distasteful.
They did forecast a below average December although their forecast didn't give me the impression it would be as cold as it was. However our National Meteorological Office falling for AGW hook, line and sinker is what I find distasteful... imo it's doing me a disservice.
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I wouldn't be surprised to see the sunspot number drop back down again. December is 1.5 I think and Jan could be similar so the longer this continues the further out the minimum will be because the earlier figures are quite high compared to now. On that basis I think the minimum could be November 08 or perhaps into early 2009.Here are the 3-month sunspot number averages since early 2007:
Jan 07 22.7
Feb 07 18.5
Mar 07 11.2
Apr 07 12.2
May 07 15.8
Jun 07 18.7
Jul 07 15.4
Aug 07 10.2
Sep 07 5.4
Oct 07 3.0
Nov 07 6.9
Dec 07 8.1
Jan 08 8.5
Feb 08 8.4
Mar 08 8.4
Apr 08 8.9
May 08 5.0
Jun 08 3.7
Jul 08 2.0
Aug 08 1.1
Sep 08 2.5
Oct 08 4.5
Nov 08 4.4
Makes pitiful reading and shows the probable very, very slow upturn to full SC24
The link below shows the spotless days this minimum in context with the cycles 10 to 23. It seems clear that this minimum is following a pattern observed during cycles 10-15. On that basis a minimum around now seems like a decent bet.
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This is today's/yesterday's:
YELLOWSTONE VOLCANO OBSERVATORY INFORMATION RELEASEFriday, January 2, 2009 19:30 MST (Saturday, January 3, 2009 02:30 UTC)
YELLOWSTONE VOLCANO (CAVW#1205-01-)
44.43°N 110.67°W, Summit Elevation 9203 ft (2805 m)
Volcano Alert Level: NORMAL
Aviation Color Code: GREEN
Yellowstone Lake Earthquake Swarm Update: 2 January 2008
The University of Utah Seismograph Stations reports that as of 1800 MST on 2 January 2009, seismicity of the ongoing Yellowstone earthquake swarm continues. Over 500 earthquakes, as large as M 3.9, have been recorded by an automated earthquake system since the inception of this unusual earthquake sequence that began Dec. 27, 2008. More than 300 of these events have been reviewed and evaluated by seismic analysts. Depths of the earthquakes range from ~ 1km to around 10 km. We note that the earthquakes extend northward from central Yellowstone Lake for ~10 km toward the Fishing Bridge area, with a migration of recent earthquakes toward the north. Some of the dozen M3+ earthquakes were felt in the Lake, Grant Village and Old Faithful areas. Personnel of the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory continue to evaluate this earthquake sequence and will provide information to the NPS, USGS and the public as it evolves.
This earthquake sequence is the most intense in this area for some years. No damage has been reported within Yellowstone National Park, nor would any be expected from earthquakes of this size. The swarm is in a region of historical earthquake activity and is close to areas of Yellowstone famous hydrothermal activity. Similar earthquake swarms have occurred in the past in Yellowstone without triggering steam explosions or volcanic activity. Nevertheless, there is some potential for hydrothermal explosions and earthquakes may continue or increase in magnitude. There is a much lower potential for related volcanic activity.
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After the spasm last night activity has dropped back to what appears to be normal levels.
It looks like the end of the swarm for now; it'll be interesting to see if it comes back in the next few days, weeks, months, years....
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There's been a rash of quakes in the last few hours with 3 having a magnitude greater than 3 in addition to the 2 earlier today. The tremor seems to have intensified as well.
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The latest activity here does seem to be more unusual than what is expect from earthquake swarms experienced in the past. A quick look at the recent quakes in the area of the lake shows they are located at depths from around 6.5km to the surface suggesting rock breaking throughout.
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recent...15.-105_eqs.php
The recent activity on the seismic traces near the lake seems to show some sort of background tremor. AFAIK this would suggest the movement of magma near to, but not necessarily towards, the surface.
The seismic traces located further from the lake don't show this behaviour; here's the trace for Old Faithful which I think is about 30 miles from the earthquakes.
I'm no expert but on the basis of that evidence it would suggest rocks breaking allowing magma to rise to the surface; presumably some sort of eruption would be expected if this were to continue, but I think that's a big if.
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2.3 please
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Defo working in firefox here!
And here, I had no problems and it streamed quickly.
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I misinterpreted what I was reading about spotless years and it's not quite what I posted before. 2008 is now the 2nd most spotless since 1900 at least I think, someone may want to check that. I wrote it before as if it was the most spotless year ever but I suppose if I'd thought about it more then I'd have realised that couldn't be the case considering the Maunder. Although it should be said, when you start going further back gaps start to appear in the record so you have to consider what good such a comparison would be anyway.
The important bit to consider for me is that this is completely different behaviour to what we've experienced recently and regardless of the exact number of days I think it's notable that we've achieved so many spotless days this cycle and that the sun still appears to be very quiet. 2009 certainly promises to be interesting; if it's another quiet year then I would think cycle 24 will be very weak.
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Just to add to the above, I do find volcanoes fascinating anyway! From the above it might seem like I'm only bothered about Chaiten, it's just that if it involves both climate and volcanoes then I'm doubly happy!
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Indeed chaps and the authorities in Chile are concerned about just such a possibility. Consider also the recent activity at Soufriere Hills in Motserrat which has also been triggered by a partial collapse of the lava dome and also the ongoing activity in Kamchatka at volcanos like Karymsky, Klyuchevskoi and Sheveluch, which is also often triggered by regular lava dome collapses.
I don't have any speciality, I just call things how I see them. My main interest would be climate over say 50 year periods (if you could call that climate timescales).
From that I expect in the future I have a bigger interest in Chaiten because I believe its got the best chance of delivering a climate changing eruption.
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I like this comment:
"But most importantly of all make sure you test your smoke alarm and if you haven't already got one why not buy one as stocking filler?"Surely if you don't have a smoke alarm you should get one immediately and put it up, and not wait until the big day! :lol:
Snow Watch: N&W Yorks, Northern & North East England
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Got a cover here, heavy shower of grauple I think. Possibly just heard a rumble of thunder. Another shower about to hit according to net weather radar.