Typhoon John
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Posts posted by Typhoon John
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Looks like thunder has increased outside of summer in september for Wales and Scotland.
Something I`ve noticed outside of summer,but less thunder in the summer to the 80`s.
The difference is difficult to measure because the scales on those two maps are different. I'd argue that there has been no increase at all.
Edit: In fact, if anything, it shows thunder has decreased.
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Not that rare but thunderstorms and torrential rain are more frequent up here than 40 years ago when thunder was restricted to July and August along with occasional downpours and not from the end of April to the middle of September as happens today. The evidence is in arable fields around me where you can see gully erosion in most years something which was pretty rare 40 years ago. Steady rainfall seems a thing of the past.
Are you sure?
I cannot believe that until 40 years ago there was never thunder or downpours outside of July and August.
It seems to me the general weather patterns this year are more like those of 40+ years ago rather than the recent past. I think the fact that we see more devastation today is due to a number of factors:
1. Larger cities and towns with more water draining into rivers.
2. Development on flood plains where for some reason people expect to be protected (well it is a FLOOD plain).
3. More news coverage of flooding when it occurs making it seem more severe and exceptional than it really is.
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Is there not a chance that this storm has the potential to turn into one of those often talked about East Coast hurricanes that could bring a huge storm surge and high winds to NYC?
The storm could intensify further South over warmer water to be major hurricane. The ridge will keep it towards the East Coast and it could rapidly accelerate towards NYC which would help it keep strength before landfall. A landfall a little South of the Hudson River mouth would surely send a huge storm surge towards Manhattan and flatten the coast of Long Island. Would probably be the worst case scenario for any US landfall hurricane.
I think that's the theory but I'm not really sure whether the current conditions would allow such a hurricane to develop.
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Chaiten has been erupting with very low amounts of SO2 so it's contribution to any climate affects is likely to be negligible.
I'm not sure about any VEI rating.
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I hadn't noticed any until today when one leapt up in front of the lawn mower. But that was it, only one.
I don't particularly like the creatures, they're annoying when they get inside and aimlessly fly around the house.
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We're up to 25 days without a sunspot and over 100 days without a cycle 24 sunspot I believe. Currently there's no indication that activity will pick up in the short term.
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The BBC weather forecast I saw had us getting very heavy rain here in Durham for most of tomorrow with less heavy but still persistent rain lasting into Thursday. It could get interesting but I think the exact position of the rain could well shift.
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http://volcanism.wordpress.com/2008/08/09/...-vdap-briefing/
This post at the Volcanism Blog contains some new info regarding the rapid growth of the lava dome at Chiaten. It also confirms what I thought about SO2 levels being very low for the type of volcano. I guess anyone looking for cooling can forget about Chiaten providing.
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It is indeed very exciting. If I'm honest I'm hoping for a big explosive eruption somewhere, I think we're long overdue! Hopefully it'll be an Alaskan volcano away from civilisation and the USGS will have loads of sensors and some HD cameras pointing at it we'll have an amazing insight into violent eruptions.
Also, if the link between solar activity and volcanic activity wasn't strong before it's looking even more solid now. It's been a remarkable few of months.
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Ive seen the Feb 1991 with Francis Wilson (that useless one off Sky News). The east of England are about to get 1 foot of snow and he seems like he is bored! If that happened today the mild rampers on the BBC would be out in seconds claiming the apocalypse is approaching.
I wish I could see snow events like those.
I remember Feb 91 so well even though I was only 5. We were flying back into Newcastle on either the Friday or Saturday night, my parents probably know which. We circled Newcastle for at least an hour before diverting to Manchester because they couldn't clear the snow from the runway at Newcastle. I remember looking out the window with big lights on the plane lighting up the snow and cloud all around us.
The snow wasn't too bad at Manchester but got progressively worse the further East we came. Instead of going back to Newcastle we got off the coach at the Carville exit of the A1. It was after midnight at this point and I remember walking through very deep snow and bitter cold with my mum guiding me and pulling suitcases!
If you think that sounds detailed for a 5 year old my parents did fill me in on a couple of details. One thing they said was when we got home our central heating had broken and the house was freezing after being empty for a week! The next day I remember snow drifts up to the kitchen window at the back of the house and making an amazing snowman. I think we probably have pictures somewhere.
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Indeed. This one at Kasatochi on face-value looks quite serious, with a strong eruption plume reaching to at least 35,000ft but its early hours in the eruption yet and Im hoping to get more details from AVO later today. I would imagine they will be quite busy at the moment!
It's not really that big though as far as volcanoes go. The eruption plume from Pinatubo reached at least three times higher, that's what caused the climatic shift. Anyone looking for cooling from any of these volcanoes should be hoping for at least one of these volcanoes to decide to go for the big one.
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It all depends on the size, but I think most VEI-8 eruptions would put us in serious trouble.
The effects would be fairly immediate, the amount of material pumped into the atmosphere would block out the sun. Dramatic cooling would follow and I expect there would be global famine and collapse of the global economy. I think a large percentage of humans would be wiped out, not so much by the event itself but by famine and the subsequent wars.
For example, after the eruption of Toba 75,000 years ago (2,800 cubic km) there was 1,000 years of cooler temperatures and 60% of the world population was killed. Today, with a much bigger population and the current strains on resources I think a similar eruption would be absolutely catastrophic.
Thankfully Toba is on the large size, the next eruption may not be so big. Or it could be bigger, the eruption of La Garita Caldera in Colorado about 27.8 million years ago is thought to have ejected about 5,000 cubic km of material.
Edit: As a comparison, the eruption of Mt. St. Helens was only 1.2 cubic km in volume.
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IMO even with all this activity it is still no where near equivalent to a major eruption capable of cooling the earth. You're going to have to hope one of these volcanoes properly explodes.
Also, I can't remember where it was, but I'm sure I read that it was thought that Chaiten actually had low SO2 output. Although I guess that we can't really be sure unless measurements are taken during this current eruption phase.
Hopefully it'll be possible to have a look inside the caldera sometime soon and see what's happened to the lava dome.
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Sunset today is at 5:53pm local time so I guess it might just be getting dark. No idea what the flash is, the webcams are showing more light again now anyway.
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Interesting developments indeed, I wasn't expecting any action just yet but it's an indication of what's to come. Reports say the eruption has subsided again so maybe not the big one just yet but it could well come soon; as I mentioned in my last post, the signs are all there. It will be interesting once the weather clears to see exactly what has happened in the caldera.
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I'm very interested in Chaiten, it looks like there's a reasonable chance of a large explosive eruption. Visible activity has dropped dramatically but seismic activity has increased in line with what would be expected from a blocked volcano with a filling magma chamber. I imagine the scientists are frantically trying to calculate how much space there is down there.
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I think it's about 20 days now since any sunspots and almost 70 days since any SC24 sunspots! It's all very quiet at the moment.
Although, according to David Hathaway of NASA there is nothing unusual at all.
http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2008/11...cycleupdate.htm
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I'll go for 15.5 based on nothing really scientific, just my general thoughts on the weather at the moment.
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I agree. Regardless of fuel prices I would still prefer a colder winter. I think this year may be colder than the previous few years. Although someone seems to say that every year!
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Roger, do you think that we are likely to see a cooling of the climate in the coming decades due to an extended minimum, especially considering the current lack of sunspots? Or do you think there are other factors at play that will either restrict the amount of cooling observed or kick start solar activity?
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There's currently a bit of graupel/hail coming down here in Heaton, Newcastle.
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There's a Horizon on Global Dimming, was fairly interesting. Perhaps we should pump a load of dust into the atmosphere for a few years to get the winter we really want.
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I still can't comprehend the possibility of 40 inches of rainfall. To me that means a permanent reshaping of the landscape. I can't think of anything similar apart from Honduras some years ago when rivers were given totally new flows.
Heavy Rainfall how rare is it?
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted · Edited by fozi999
Not definite at all.
I would say mainland Scotland has decreased. The only place that has definitely increased is the Outer Hebrides. Wales is more ambiguous, to the North the Eastern half of Wales shows a decrease but in the South the chosen scales mean it's impossible to know. That is my view of those maps.
Where are the figures for this decade? I'm not saying you are wrong about more recent years (there certainly has been some higher temperatures) but it's hard to assess without some data.