Alex

In fact i believe the more anticyclonic conditions we have now is sometimes a sign of whats to come, 2005-06 is good example of this.

Ben cambs, east anglia and the southeast did have a level 2 heat health warning last summer around early-mid July. Think around the 8-12th. Milhouse, not sure I would say 9 days of 26c would be too impressive in one month. I'm sure june and aug 09 got thereabouts and june/July 10 also in essex, an avg temp of 23c means 26c is only 3 above. My definition of a heatwave is the met measure of 31c / 16c for the southeast. Anything between 25-30c is very warm for me but i probably wouldn't regard it as a heatwave. With your measure isolated frost, a heatwave would be 28c max at day.

Looking back at January / Feb 2006, this year seems rather similar to this one, I just wonder if we will be getting a similar spring summer to 06? What were the analogues for this year?

Kimmirut, I think the whole of the uk needs heat after a damp cold winter! Best scenario would be a high sitting across Denmark pulling in south or southeast winds and it staying there for 2weeks before being replaced by another high over north france pulling in southwesterlies that way all areas see some heat! I wonder what the longest period a high has sat over the uk?

So if the analogues match and we see a weak la Nina what is this better suited to in year and weather patterns? What Do you think SB?

Why do u think that SB? Is the La Nina event showing any signs of collapsing or lowering ? Cheers

Summer blizzard, interesting stuff but what was 75-76 an el niño or la Nina period? And where did we sit in January 76 with the strength of either force? Cheers

Summer blizzard, interesting stuff but what was 75-76 an el niño or la Nina period? And where did we sit in January 76 with the strength of either force? Cheers

Croatian I get what you're saying but it's too early to judge, most said an above avg summer before 2007 started and some were saying record breaking obviously it didn't happen but we did have record breaking April! Things changed quickly that spring and things will change again. No year is same! Solar minimums may help as it may weaken the jet and push ridges up the southeast of england as like last July! Where I live is different to most of the uk!

I seem to remember 04 not being that bad in Essex, may be wrong? 07 was weird because we had a great spring and record April.

Between 98-02 we had 5 poorish summers in a row am I right here? 03-06 we had good summers, these things seem to come in cycles? Correct me if I'm wrong

What happens if we get a neural la Nina or el niño develop with a -qbo summer blizzard or anyone? Also without sounding stupid what does qbo mean? Cheers

Will do Jane sorry I'm on iPhone so I'll do it when I get home.

Thanks summer blizzard good post! What was the indications this time last year in regards to the summer last year?

Last year we had a cool may and things broke down mid June with southwesterlies, I remember the temp jumped by 10c in 3 days to 26c and it was the start of a month long warm/hot spell in the southeast. Suppose we could be in line for similar. I was always taught that northerlies are extremely rare in the summer?

Chelmsford in Essex, It was very good here hardly any rain and Many days over 25c! Writtle was quite often the hotspot last summer and this is 5miles to the west of the town. North sea: cool and dry would mean 2/3c below and dry? So we looking at 20c with Manu dry sunny days? I must admit I like heat so this prob would suit me.

As we are now in 2011 and I'm a massive heat lover! I wondered what the long term patterns and thoughts are going into spring and summer. last year was a summer of two halves with a good June and July but a poor August. Will the pattern be similar or can we expect better? Discuss here. I'd be interested to know any thoughts of long term forecasts even though it is a long way off. Cheers.