Roger J Smith

Friday at 21:19

1833 got to its highest position of 15.6 by 24th and gradually fell back to 15.1. 1833 also set two daily records near 20C at mid-month. Apart from those, no really exceptional daily means.

I take it from previous discussion actual average at recording site was higher than 15.1, it was some value 3.9 above 1961-90 average for same location near London? So probably closer to 16? (3.9 over possibly 12.1)

It's all a bit confusing but I see the logic of adjusting that way. If CET was all one London (west) station now, it would

(a) need a larger urban heat island correction of 1.0 to 1.5 and

(b) in climate terms would likely be 1.0 to 1.5 higher, so you would need to take 2-3 off London averages nowadays to find a realistic analogue to CET.

Thursday at 13:27

1981-2010 CET May averages and extremes 1772-2023

DATE ____ AVG __ CUM AVG _______ MAX yr ___ MIN yr _______ Running CET extremes

___ 01 ___ 10.8 ___ 10.8 ________16.0 1990,2005 _ 4.2 1945 ___ 16.0 1990,2005_ 4.2 1945

___ 02 ___ 10.4 ___ 10.6 __________ 16.4 1966 __ 3.8 1979 _____ 15.9 1966 ___ 4.1 1979

___ 03 ___ 10.5 ___ 10.6 __________ 17.6 1990 __ 3.2 1877 _____ 16.4 1990 ___ 4.3 1979

___ 04 ___ 10.3 ___ 10.5 __________ 18.0 1834 __ 3.2 1877 _____ 16.7 1990 ___ 4.3 1979

___ 05 ___ 10.6 ___ 10.5 __________ 16.7 1800 __ 3.9 1979 _____ 16.4 1990 ___ 4.2 1979

___ 06 ___ 11.0 ___ 10.6 __________ 18.6 1867 __ 4.4 1831 _____ 15.9 1990 ___ 4.5 1979

___ 07 ___ 11.0 ___ 10.7 __________ 17.0 2018 __ 3.8 1879 _____ 15.2 1990 ___ 5.0 1979 (5.1 1782, 1877)

___ 08 ___ 10.9 ___ 10.7 __________ 17.7 2016 __ 3.1 1861 _____ 14.7 1995 ___ 5.2 1782

___ 09 ___ 10.6 ___ 10.7 _______ 17.6 1945,2016 _ 5.1 1910 ___ 14.7 1800 ___ 5.6 1782

___ 10 ___ 10.8 ___ 10.8 __________ 18.2 1959 __ 4.2 1879 ____ 14.7 2008 ___ 6.0 1782

___ 11 ___ 11.1 ___ 10.8 __________ 18.7 2008 __ 4.1 1773 ____ 15.1 2008 ___ 6.2 1879

___ 12 ___ 11.3 ___ 10.8 __________ 18.8 1945 __ 4.4 1816 ____ 15.2 2008 ___ 6.6 1782, 1879

___ 13 ___ 11.6 ___ 10.9 __________ 17.4 1959 __ 5.1 1855 _____ 15.1 2008 ___ 6.7 1879

___ 14 ___ 11.7 ___ 10.9 __________ 18.8 1992 __ 3.9 1839 _____ 14.9 2008 ___ 6.7 1902

___ 15 ___ 11.7 ___ 11.0 __________ 20.0 1833 __ 4.3 1839 _____ 14.9 1833 ___ 6.8 1902

___ 16 ___ 11.4 ___ 11.0 __________ 20.0 1808 __ 5.2 1996 _____ 15.2 1833 ___ 6.9 1902

___ 17 ___ 11.3 ___ 11.0 __________ 19.7 1833 __ 3.6 1935 _____ 15.4 1833 ___ 7.1 1855, 1902

___ 18 ___ 11.4 ___ 11.0 __________ 19.0 1952 __ 4.2 1872 _____ 15.4 1833 ___ 7.2 1855, 1902, 1996

___ 19 ___ 11.8 ___ 11.1 __________ 20.3 1868 __ 5.3 1872 _____ 15.4 1833 ___ 7.2 1902, 1996

___ 20 ___ 12.3 ___ 11.1 __________ 17.7 1916 __ 5.8 1894 _____ 15.4 1833 ___ 7.2 1902

___ 21 ___ 12.1 ___ 11.2 __________ 18.8 1918 __ 5.7 1894 _____ 15.4 1833 ___ 7.3 1902

___ 22 ___ 12.2 ___ 11.2 __________ 19.6 1918 __ 5.1 1867 _____ 15.4 1833 ___ 7.3 1902

___ 23 ___ 12.8 ___ 11.3 __________ 19.5 1922 __ 5.0 1867 _____ 15.5 1833 ___ 7.6 1902

___ 24 ___ 13.3 ___ 11.4 __________ 18.8 1953 __ 5.7 1867 _____ 15.5 1833 ___ 7.9 1902

___ 25 ___ 12.4 ___ 11.4 __________ 20.9 1953 __ 6.5 1814 _____ 15.6 1833 ___ 8.0 1885

___ 26 ___ 12.4 ___ 11.5 ________18.7 1784,2017__4.6 1821_____ 15.5 1833 ___ 8.1 1782, 1885

___ 27 ___ 12.1 ___ 11.5 __________ 19.0 1788 __ 6.6 1984 _____ 15.4 1833 ___ 8.25 1782

___ 28 ___ 12.3 ___ 11.5 __________ 20.6 1847 __ 6.3 1869 _____ 15.3 1833 ___ 8.5 1782, 1885, 1996

___ 29 ___ 12.8 ___ 11.6 __________ 21.2 1780 __ 6.3 1869 _____ 15.2 1833 ___ 8.7 1782,1879,1902,1996

___ 30 ___ 13.0 ___ 11.6 __________ 21.0 1944 __ 4.9 1807 _____ 15.1 1833 ___ 8.7 1817, 1902

___ 31 ___ 13.3 ___ 11.7 __________ 20.5 1947 __ 6.4 1802 _____ 15.1 1833 ___ 8.7 1817#

# 8.7 was lowest during daily data period but 1698 finished on 8.5 and 1740 on 8.6, these could have had lower running CET values at various points before 31st as well.

___________________________________________________________________________

1991-2020 daily and cumulative CET values

date _ mean __ cum ____ date _ mean __ cum ______ date _ mean __ cum ___ date _ mean _ cum

01 ___10.5 ___10.5 _____ 11 ___11.3 ___ 11.0 _____ 21 ___12.6 ___11.3 ____ 31 ___ 13.7 __ 11.9

02 ___10.5 ___10.5 _____ 12 ___11.3 ___ 11.0 _____ 22 ___12.8 ___11.4 ____

03 ___10.4 ___10.5 _____ 13 ___11.4 ___ 11.0 _____ 23 ___13.0 ___11.5 ____

04 ___10.2 ___10.4 _____ 14 ___11.4 ___ 11.1 _____ 24 ___13.5 ___11.6 ____

05 ___10.7 ___10.5 _____ 15 ___11.3 ___ 11.1 _____ 25 ___12.8 ___11.6 ____

06 ___11.2 ___10.6 _____ 16 ___11.4 ___ 11.1 _____ 26 ___13.0 ___11.6 ____

07 ___11.7 ___10.7 _____ 17 ___11.4 ___ 11.1 _____ 27 ___13.1 ___11.7 ____

08 ___11.5 ___10.8 _____ 18 ___11.7 ___ 11.1 _____ 28 ___13.2 ___11.8 ____

09 ___11.3 ___10.9 _____ 19 ___12.2 ___ 11.2 _____ 29 ___13.2 ___11.8 ____

10 ___11.4 ___10.9 _____ 20 ___12.5 ___ 11.2 _____ 30 ___13.5 ___ 11.9 ____

__________________________

Thursday at 13:21

EWP tracker ended up at 94.7 mm for month, would result in different scoring ranks for tied values using 95.0, but as we will get another possibly different final value on 5th, will provide final EWP scoring update then. CET scoring in table posted previously has been adjusted for 9.6 now.

Wednesday at 15:51

Will edit table of CET rankings later (to 9.6 result), on road at present ... will look at EWP final tracker value also on 2nd.

Wednesday at 04:51

Forecasts for May 2024

CET _ EWP __ Forecaster (Order of entry) ____ EWP in order

15.2 _ 48.0 __ shillitocettwo (7) _____________ 100.0 __ B87

14.3 _ 40.0 __ WYorksWeather (18) _________ 100.0__ Methuselah 48.0

14.3 _ 75.0 __ Matt Stoke (43) ________________ 93.5 __ Roger J Smith

14.2 _ 93.5 __ Roger J Smith (32) ______________89.0 __ summer 18

14.0 _ -- -- ___ Blue_Skies_do_I_see (29) _______85.0 __ stewfox

13.8 _ 65.0 __ Pulpstar (L1-2) _________________ 85.0 __ syed2878

13.7 _ 66.0 __ Let It Snow! (31) ________________ 80.0 __ I Remember Atlantic 252

13.6 _ 78.0 __ davehsug (37) __________________ 80.0 __ Don

13.5 _ 32.1 __ Polar Gael (4) ___________________ 79.8 __ Kirkcaldy Weather

13.4 _ 53.5 __ Metwatch (38) ___________________78.0 __ davehsug

13.4 _ 58.0 __ Feb1991Blizzard (48) ____________76.0 __ dancerwithwings

13.3 _ 21.0 __ Wade (35) ________________________75.0 __ sunny_vale

13.3 _ 45.0 __ Frigid (39, 15.5) ___________________75.0 __ The PIT

13.2 _ 72.0 __ Reef (30) __________________________75.0 __ Matt Stoke

13.2 _ 64.0 __ Emmett Garland (33) _____________ 73.0 __ virtualsphere

13.1 _ 72.0 __ Stationary Front (34) ______________73.0 __ Midlands Ice Age

13.1 _ 65.0 __ Addicks Fan 1981 (52, 5.5) ________72.0 __ Reef

13.1 _ 62.0 __ February1978 (55) ________________72.0 __ Stationary Front

13.0 _ 75.0 __ sunny_vale (19) ___________________ 72.0 __ seaside60

13.0 _ 53.0 __ topclass weather forecaster (27) __

13.0 _ 50.0 __ weatherforducks (28) _____________ 70.0 __ catbrainz

13.0 _ 55.0 __ TwisterGirl81 (51) _________________ 70.0 __ Jeff C

12.9 _ 76.0 __ dancerwithwings (12) _____________ 70.0 __ DR(S)NO

12.9 _ -- -- ___ Mark Bayley (L-1) __________________ 69.0 __ chilly milly

12.9 _ 73.0 __ Midlands Ice Age (36) ______________68.0 __ Mr Maunder

12.9 _ 72.0 __ seaside60 (42) _____________________ 66.0 __ Let It Snow!

12.9 _ 80.0 __ Don (50) ___________________________ 66.0 __ Mulzy

12.8 _ 56.0 __ SteveB (1) __________________________65.1 __ 1994-2023 average

12.8 _ 70.0 __ Consensus _________________________65.0 __ Consensus

12.8 _ 51.0 __ rwtwm (21) ________________________ 65.0 __ Addicks Fan 1981

12.8 _ 60.0 __ Daniel* (54) ________________________65.0 __ J 10

12.7 _100.0__ Methuselah (5) ____________________ 65.0 __ Pulpstar

12.7 _ 70.0 __ DR(S)NO (41) ______________________ 64.1 __ average all data

12.7 _ --- --- __ damianslaw (46) ___________________ 64.0 __ Emmett Garland

12.6 _ 59.0 __ jonboy (40) ________________________ 63.6 __ 1981-2010 average

12.5 _ 57.0 __ snowray (11) ______________________ 62.7 __ 1991-2020 average

12.5 _ 70.0 __ Jeff C (16) __________________________ 62.0 __ February1978

12.5 _ 75.0 __ The PIT (24) ________________________60.0 __ summer8906

12.5 _ 60.0 __ summer8906 (25) __________________60.0 __ Weather Observer

12.5 _ 68.0 __ Mr Maunder (53) ___________________60.0 __ daniel

12.5 _ 65.0 __ J 10 (56) ____________________________ 59.0 __ summer shower

12.4 _ 54.0 __ summer blizzard (10) ______________ 59.0 __ jonboy

12.4 _ -- -- ___ Typhoon John (15) _________________ 58.0 __ Feb1991Blizzard

12.3 _ 59.0 __ summer shower (47,18.5) _________ 57.0 __ snowray

12.2 _ 73.0 __ virtualsphere (17) _________________ 56.0 __ SteveB

12.1 _ 85.0 __ stewfox (20) _______________________ 55.0 __ TwisterGirl81

12.1 _ 66.0 __ Mulzy (49) _________________________ 54.0 __ summer blizzard

12.0 _ 50.0 __ Leo97t (13) ________________________ 53.5 __ Metwatch

11.9 _ 63.6 __ 1981-2010 average _______________ 53.0 __ topclass weather forecaster

11.9 _ 65.1 __ 1994-2023 average ________________52.8 __ bobd29

11.9 _ 85.0 __ syed2878 (23) _____________________ 51.0 __ rwtwm

11.9 _ -- -- ___ Summer Sun (26) __________________50.0 __ weatherforducks

11.9 _ 60.0 __ Weather Observer (44) ____________ 50.0 __ Leo97t

11.8 _ 70.0 __ catbrainz (3) _______________________ 48.0 __ shillitocettwo

11.8 _ 79.8 __ Kirkcaldy Weather (9) ______________45.0 __ Frigid

11.7 _ 63.6 __ 1981-2010 average ________________44.0 __ Neil N

11.7 _ 89.0 __ summer 18 (14) ____________________40.0 __ WYorksWeather

11.6 _ 52.8 __ bobd29 (8) _________________________ 32.1 __ Polar Gael

11.5 _ 44.0 __ Neil N (22) __________________________ 21.0 Wade

11.3 _ 80.0 __ I Remember Atlantic 252 (45)

11.2 _ 64.1 __ average of all data

11.1 _ -- -- ___ Kentish Man (57)

11.0 _ 69.0 __ chilly milly (6)

10.5 _100.0__ B87 (2)

==========

57 on time CET, 52 EWP (2 CET, 1 EWP late by 1d) _ 59 and 53 total.

Tuesday at 06:45

Please note, I am on a road trip (in Utah and Nevada) and will not likely be able to produce a table of forecasts until around 0600h Wed 1st or possibly later. Data collected below will be edited out of post.

Forecasts for May 2024

15.2 _ 48.0 __ shillitocettwo (7)

14.3 _ 40.0 __ WYorksWeather (21)

14.2 _ 93.5 __ Roger J Smith (35)

14.0 _ -- -- ___ Blue_Skies_do_I_see (32)

13.7 _ 66.0 __ Let It Snow! (34)

13.5 _ 32.1 __ Polar Gael (4)

13.3 _ 21.0 __ Wade (38)

13.2 _ 72.0 __ Reef (32)

13.2 _ 64.0 __ Emmett Garland (36)

13.1 _ 72.0 __ Stationary Front (37)

13.0 _ 75.0 __ sunny_vale (22)

13.0 _ 53.0 __ topclass weather forecaster (30)

13.0 _ 50.0 __ weatherforducks (31)

12.9 _ 76.0 __ dancerwithwings (12)

12.8 _ 56.0 __ SteveB (1)

12.8 _ 51.0 __ rwtwm (24)

12.7 _100.0__ Methuselah (5)

12.5 _ 57.0 __ snowray (11)

12.5 _ 70.0 __ Jeff C (17)

12.5 _ 75.0 __ The PIT (27)

12.5 _ 60.0 __ summer8906 (28)

12.4 _ 54.0 __ summer blizzard (10)

12.4 _ -- -- ___ Typhoon John (15)

12.2 _ 73.0 __ virtualsphere (19)

12.1 _ 85.0 __ stewfox (23)

12.0 _ 50.0 __ Leo97t (13)

11.9 _ 62.7 __ 1991-2020 average

11.9 _ 65.1 __ 1994-2023 average

11.9 _ 85.0 __ syed2878 (26)

11.9 _ -- -- ___ Summer Sun (29)

11.8 _ 70.0 __ catbrainz (3)

11.8 _ 79.8 __ Kirkcaldy Weather (9)

11.7 _ 63.6 __ 1981-2010 average

11.7 _ 89.0 __ summer 18 (14)

11.6 _ 52.8 __ bobd29 (8)

11.6 _ 65.0 __ Addicks Fan 1981 (18, 5.5)

11.5 _ 44.0 __ Neil N (25)

11.2 _ 64.1 __ average of all data

11.0 _ 69.0 __ chilly milly (6)

10.9 _ 59.0 __ summer shower (20)

10.8 _ 45.0 __ Frigid (16)

10.5 _100.0__ B87 (2)

April 29

I foresee another run at records, hoping this one sustains into second half ... 14.2 C and 93.5 mm be my call.

April 28

(Preliminary) CET and EWP scoring reports, best combined rankings

_ based on 9.6 C and 95 mm _

* Three late forecasts are ranked with scoring levels but combined ranks add 2.

CET

Rank _ CET _ EWP _ Forecaster (Order of entry) _____ EWP rank ___ combined

_01 ___ 9.6 _ --- --- __ Blue_Skies_do_I_See (29) _______ ----

_02 ___ 9.6 _ --- --- __ damianslaw (43) ________________ ----

_03 ___ 9.6 _ 97.0 __ Mr Maunder (48) _________________ 5 ______ 8 _____ best combined

_04 ___ 9.6 _108.0__ Metwatch (51) ___________________23 _____ 27 _____t-7th best combined

_05 ___ 9.5 _ 70.0 __ virtualsphere (10) _______________ 39 _____ 44 _____15th best combined

_06 ___ 9.7 _ 45.0 __ stewfox (12) _____________________ 51 _____ 57

_07 ___ 9.7 _ 67.0 __ Weather 26 (14) _________________ 41 _____ 48 _____18th best combined

_08 ___ 9.5 _100.0__ syed2878 (38) ____________________10 _____ 18 _____ 2nd best combined

_09 ___ 9.5 _ 90.0 __ weatherforducks (42) ____________13 _____ 22 _____ 3rd best combined

_10 ___ 9.7 _ --- --- __ Mark Bayley (44) ________________ ----

_11 ___ 9.5 _ 87.0 __ davehsug (L1-1) __________________16 _____ 29*____t-8th best combined

(12) ___9.4 _ 96.5 __ consensus _________________________(3)_____ (15) ___ (2nd)

_12 ___ 9.4 _135.0__ LetItSnow! (20) ___________________49 _____ 61

_13 ___ 9.4 _110.0__ Frigid (24) ________________________26 _____ 39 _____12th best combined

_14 ___ 9.8 _127.0__ snowray (31) _____________________43 _____ 57 _____ 17th best combined

_15 ___ 9.4 _113.0__ Midlands Ice Age (45) ____________32 _____ 47 _____17th best combined

_16 ___ 9.8 _ 89.0 __ Weather Observer (46) __________ 14 _____ 30 _____10th best combined

_17 ___ 9.8 _107.0__ seaside60 (L1-2) _________________ 21 _____ 40*____13th best combined

_18 ___ 9.3 _ 84.0 __ dancerwithwings ( 1 ) ____________20 _____ 38 _____11th best combined

_19 ___ 9.3 _ 91.0 __ rwtwm (19) _______________________ 7 _____ 26 _____ 4th best combined

_20 ___ 9.9 _130.0__ Emmett Garland (21) ____________ 45 _____ 65

_21 ___ 9.3 _125.0__ Don (L1-3) ________________________42 _____ 65*

_22 ___ 9.2 _ 53.0 __ summer blizzard ( 9 ) _____________50 _____ 72

_23 ___ 9.2 _ 92.0 __ Pulpstar (28) _______________________6 _____ 29 _____t-8th best combined

_24 ___ 9.2 _ 97.0 __ mulzy (41) _________________________ 4 _____ 28 _____7th best combined

_25 ___10.0 _ 94.0 __ February1978 (54) ________________ 2 _____ 27 _____t-5th best combined

_26 ___10.0 _ 75.0 __ J 10 (56) __________________________ 35 _____ 61

_27 ___10.1 _ --- ---__ Typhoon John ( 3 ) ________________---

_28 ___ 9.1 _ 60.1 __ Bobd29 ( 6 ) ______________________ 44 _____ 72

_29 ___10.1 _ --- ---__ Summer Sun (33) _________________---

(30) ___ 9.0 _ 63.2 __ average 1991-2020 ______________(42.9)__ (72.9)

_30 ___10.2 _110.0__ Addicks Fan 1981 (26,2.5) ________24 _____ 51 _____t-19th best combined

_31 ___ 9.0 _110.0__ jonboy (36) _______________________ 27 _____ 58

(31) ___ 8.9 _ 59.2 __ average 1994-2023 ______________(46.1)__(77.1)

_32 ___10.3 _ 85.0 __ Matt Stoke (22) __________________ 19 _____ 51 _____t-19th best combined

_33 ___10.4 _100.0__ Methuselah ( 7 ) __________________ 8 _____ 41 ____14th best combined

_34 ___10.4 _110.0__ WYorksWeather (23) _____________25 _____ 59

_35 ___ 8.8 _ 74.0 __ Reef (37) _________________________ 37 _____ 72

_36 ___10.4 _111.0__ DR(S)NO (49) ____________________ 29 _____ 65

_37 ___10.4 _104.0__ Stationary Front (52) ____________ 17 _____ 54 ____t-24th best combined

_38 ___ 8.8 _ 89.0 __ daniel* (55) ______________________ 15 _____ 53 ____t-21st best combined

_39 ___10.5 _ 85.5 __ Polar Gael (32) __________________ 18 _____ 57

_40 ___ 8.6 _111.0__ summer 18 ( 8 ) __________________ 28 _____ 68

_41 ___10.6 _ 90.0 __ sunny_vale (33) __________________ 12 _____ 53 _____t-21st best combined

(42) ___8.5 _ 64.8 __ average 1981-2010 ______________(42.1)__(84.1)

_42 ___ 8.5 _ 90.0 __ Bluehedgehog074 (18) ___________ 11 _____ 53 ____t-21st best combined

_43 ___ 8.5 _130.0__ summer8906 (30) ________________ 46 _____ 89

_44 ___ 8.4 _ 77.0 __ Godber 1 (47) _____________________34 _____ 78

_45 ___11.0 _ 95.0 __ Feb1991Blizzard (50) ______________1 _____ 46 _____16th best combined

_46 ___ 8.1 _ 78.0 __ Jeff C (11) __________________________31 _____ 77

_47 ___ 8.1 _133.0__ I Remember Atlantic252 (17) ______48 _____ 95

_48 ___ 8.0 _ 70.0 __ The_PIT (35) _______________________40 _____ 88

(49) ___8.0 _ 58.4 __ average all data __________________(46.9)___(75.9)

_49 ___ 8.0 _ --- --- __ Kentish Man (53) _________________----

_50 ___ 7.9 _120.0 __ B87 ( 2 ) __________________________38 _____ 88

_51 ___ 7.9 _ 96.5 __ Thomas Green ( 5 ) _______________ 3 _____ 54 ____t-24th best combined

_52 ___ 7.8 _ 83.0 __ SummerShower (13) _____________22 _____ 74

_53 ___ 7.8 _ 77.0 __ Neil N (25) ________________________33 _____ 88

_54 ___11.5 _115.7__ Roger J Smith (40) _______________36 _____ 90

_55 ___ 7.6 _131.8__ Kirkcaldy Weather (39) ___________47 _____102

_56 ___ 7.5 _100.0__ Leo97t (16) _______________________ 9 _____ 65

_57 ___ 7.4 _ 40.0 __ shillitocettwo ( 4 ) ________________52 _____109

_58 ___ 7.2 _112.0__ chilly milly (15) ___________________30 _____ 88

_59 ___ 7.1 _153.0__ Met. (27) _________________________53 _____112

==============

April 26

That scoring table was posted 13 April and is around page 8 of thread ... will of course move it (adjusted) to current discussion at end of April ... Feb1991blizzard at 95.0 mm for April would take top score and also be in first place in annual just ahead of summer 18. Looks like I will be going on a non-scheduled storm chase, we have been in Las Vegas NV since Tuesday, sunny and around 30 C each day here, going for that again today but we are now leaving LV and driving n.e. into the Utah scenic portion of our planned trip and will be driving through a cold front around late afternoon east of St George UT so I hope to get some storm pics with scenic backdrops later on. Except for this passing front our 12 days down here look dry as a bone and it will gradually warm up again after this frontal passage gives us one rather cool day on Saturday (expecting 15-18 C where we will be going). It was a relatively wet winter and we are seeing a lot of cactus flowers as well as wildflowers in desert areas, very fortunate timing.

April 26

Just popping in, today's CET report by the way should be 9.8 to 25th (not 24th) ...

EWP est 72 mm (was 68 to 24th) ... GFS current final value at least 95 mm as in our provisional scoring table (option 2 previously, I deleted option 1). Could nudge 100 or even 105. Will update around 2nd.

Back to vacation, popping in again on 30 April I hope.

April 20

In scoring estimates already posted, I added 95 mm as an option below original 75 mm tables. Anyway just a preview.

Will be on a break for about two weeks, some internet access but I won't be on line for most of ten days now to 30 April, any data questions etc may not be answered in usual prompt timing but I may get on briefly ... posted next contest already, and will try to get some of usual end of contest posts up on 1st before disappearing again for about five days on return portion of trip (going down to UT and AZ).

April 19

CET May averages and other statistics

___ table includes all CET values for the period 1981 to 2023 ... bold type, warmest third, italics middle third, underlined, coolest third of years ___

___ ties indicated are in one decimal, table ranks are based on a second decimal ___

21.2 ... warmest daily mean (29th, 1780)

20.0 ... 15th (1833) earliest 20.0 CET day.

15.1 ... warmest May (1833)

13.9 ... 2nd warmest May (1848)

13.8 ... t-3rd warmest Mays (1758, 1788)

13.7 ... 5th warmest May (1808)

13.6 ... t-6th warmest Mays (1727, 1992)

13.5 ... t-8th warmest Mays (1784, 1868, 1919, 1947)

13.4 ... t-12th warmest Mays 2008 (tied with 1726, 1952)

13.3 ... t-15th warmest Mays 1743, 1804, 1964, 2017, 2018

13.1 ... 1998, 2022

12.9 ... 1989, 1999

12.6 ... 1990, 2016

12.5 ... 2001, 2020, 2023

12.3 ... 2006, 2014

12.2 ... 2011

12.1 ... 2004, 2009

12.0 ... 2000, 2023 ... ... highest 30-year average (1989-2018) and 2001-2023 average

11.9 ... 1991-2020 (& 1994-2023) averages and 1988, 2007

11.8 ... 2002, 2012

11.7 ... 1981-2010 average

11.6 ... 1982, 1995

11.5 ... 1993, 1997

11.4 ... ... 1901-2000 average

11.3 ... 2005 .. 1971-2000 average, 1701-1800 average

11.2 ... 1981, 2019 (also 1980) ... 1961-1990 average, 1659-2023 average of all data (11.24)

11.1 ... ... 1801-1900 average

11.0 ... 1986

10.9 ... 1985

10.8 ... 2015

10.7 ... 1991, 1994, 2010 ... 1659-1700 average

10.6 ... ... ... lowest 30-year average (1687-1716, to 1690-1719) _ also 10.65 (1873-1902)*

10.5 ... 2013

10.3 ... 1983

10.2 ... 2021

10.1 ... 1987

9.9 ... 1984 (also 1979)

9.2 ... 1996 tied 15th coldest with four other years, the coldest in recent years)

9.1 ... 1756 and 1877 tied 13th coldest

9.0 ... 1692,93,94,95 and 1782 tied 8th coldest

8.9 ... 1879, 1885, 1902 tied 5th coldest

8.8 ... 1855 was 4th coldest

8.7 ... 1817 was 3rd coldest

8.6 ... 1740 was 2nd coldest

8.5 ... 1698 was coldest May

Extreme cold

4.2 ... mean for 1-5 May, 1979 (4.4, 3.7, 4.7, 4.4, 3.9)

3.5 .... mean for 3-5 May, 1877 (3.2, 3.2, 4.2)

3.1 .... coldest daily mean (8th, 1861)

_____________________________________

* The secondary minimum came after two centuries of warmer Mays with 11.61 1820-49 the peak

Post your May CET forecasts before end of day Tuesday 30th of April to avoid time penalty, or in first three days of May with increasing late penalties.

______________________________________

England and Wales precip (EWP) contest

Note: this is verified against the Hadley version of EWP (1766 to present),

The contest asks you to predict the average England and Wales precip in mm. These are the extreme values and recent averages.

151.8 ___ max 1766-2023 (in 1773)

142.4 ___ second wettest in 1782

140.7 ___ third wettest in 1967

122.7 ___ maximum 1981-2023 (in 2021) _ 118.4 in 2007 _ 115.2 in 1983

65.1 ___ average 1994-2023

64.1 ___ average 1766-2023 (all data)

63.6 ___ average 1981-2010

62.7 ___ average 1991-2020

10.3 ___ minimum 1981-2023 (in 2020) _ (13.7 (1991) previous)

07.9 ___ (min 1766-2023) in 1844

________________________________________________________________

Recent ... 2023_43.8 mm ... 2022 _ 59.4 mm ... 2021 _122.7 mm ... 2020 _ 10.3 mm ... 2019 _ 46.0 mm ... 2018 _ 51.9 mm ... 2017 _ 65.0 mm ...

2016 _ 61.7 mm ... 2015 _ 86.6 mm ... 2014 _ 102.8 mm ... 2013 _ 73.9 mm ... 2012 _ 57.4 mm ... 2011 _ 46.5 mm ... 2010 _ 38.3 mm ... ...

Enter the EWP contest in the same post as your CET temperature forecast. Scores are by rank order out of 10.0, 0.3 penalties per day late. Same deadlines apply as CET contest.

... Good luck in both contests ...

April 17

1778 as already discussed went from near-record warmth 1-13 Apr to near-record cold 14-27 Apr, and had a daily average of only 2.9 on 24th which was broken in 1908 so it isn't in list of records now, but 22 April is still there (3.4 C). 1873 also had very cold days near 3 C not staying as records after 1908.

I had a look to verify that no colder readings than 2.9 were broken by the 1908 and 1856 records. The 2.7 mean daily on 30 April 1945 is another case of a record low following warm April weather (record highs set 15-16 Apr).

After 2.5 on 23 April 1908 the second coldest average was 3.2 in 1857 (also 3.4 in 1827).

After 0.6 on 24 April 1908 the second coldest average was 2.9 in 1778 (also 3.2 in 1873).

After 1.8 on 25 April 1908 the second coldest average was 3.2 in 1816, 1873 and 1950. (also 3.5 in 1829).

After 0.7 on 29 April 1856 the second coldest average was 3.1 in 1782.

The -0.2 of 19 April 1772 was not further ahead of 1.7 in 1849 (also 2.3 in 1793, 2.4 in 1838 and 2.5 in 1809).

April 17

The 1908 late April cold spell set three daily CET records including 0.6 on 24 April; only 1856 (0.7 on 29 April) has any reading lower than 1.0 after the --0.2 of 19 April 1772.

Anyway, I looked into the question of a colder second half of April than Feb-Mar combined, and found six cases: 1809, 1815, 1859, 1884, 1903 and 1989. (note, Feb-Mar average is a daily average, only one of these cases (1903) actually yielded a late April decrease relative to both monthly means, as noted).

This was the top 12 of (otherwise) smallest increases, and the six actual decreases heading the list.

Least CET Increases second half April vs FEB -MAR

YEAR ____ 16-30 APR ____ FEB -MAR ______ difference __ FEB CET _ MAR CET

1903 _____ 6.0 ______________ 7.1 ___________ --1.1 _______ 7.1 _______ 7.1

1815 _____ 6.6 ______________ 6.9 ___________ --0.3 _______ 6.5 _______ 7.3

1884 _____ 5.6 ______________ 5.9 ___________ --0.3 _______ 5.3 _______ 6.5

1859 _____ 6.3 ______________ 6.5 ___________ --0.2 _______ 5.7 _______ 7.3

1809 _____ 5.8 ______________ 5.9 ___________ --0.1 _______ 5.7 _______ 6.0

1989 _____ 6.7 ______________ 6.8 ___________ --0.1 _______ 6.0 _______ 7.5

1938 _____ 7.4 ______________ 7.2 ___________ +0.2 _______ 5.1 _______ 9.1

1877 _____ 5.9 ______________ 5.5 ___________ +0.4 _______ 6.2 _______ 4.9

1849 _____ 6.5 ______________ 5.9 ___________ +0.6 _______ 5.7 _______ 6.1

1981 _____ 6.2 ______________ 5.5 ___________ +0.7 _______ 3.0 _______ 7.8

2017 _____ 8.2 ______________ 7.5 ___________ +0.7 _______ 6.2 _______ 8.8

Despite record cold 23-25 April, 1908 was +0.9 (Apr 16-30 5.7, Feb 5.3, Mar 4.3 avg 4.8), 12th place for smallest increases.

------------

So, it has happened six times that second half of April was colder than Feb-March average, but only one of those was colder than both Feb and March averages, the other five beat March but not Feb; of the other six in the list, with small increases, one beat Feb, three beat March, and two were slightly warmer than both.

April 17

Okay, I took a look at all cases of late April temperature drops relative to first fourteen days (only the warmest 8% of early Aprils were in first sample, granted they would stand a better than average chance of seeing a drop of 1.0+, just about the entire 50% below average first fourteen days would likely be excluded by seasonal trend alone) ...

... that leads to following table of all cases with drops of 1.5 C or more (a total of 51 out of 252 dropped by at least 0.1 C and 11 stayed level). ...

YEAR ___ CET 1-14 _ CET 1-30 _ decrease

1778 ___ 10.7 ___ ____ 8.2 ___ ___ 2.5

1815 ____ 9.9 ___ ____ 8.1 ___ ___ 1.8

1884 ____ 8.9 ___ ____ 7.2 ___ ___ 1.7

1859 ____ 9.1 ___ ____ 7.5 ___ ___ 1.6

1906 ____ 8.9 ___ ____ 7.3 ___ ___ 1.6

1835 ___ 10.1 ___ ____ 8.6 ___ ___ 1.5

1981 ____ 9.3 ___ ____ 7.8 ___ ___ 1.5

This list adds only four cases (1884, 1859, 1906, 1981) to identify all drops of 1.5+, now working on a program that can isolate cases where second half of April was colder than Feb - march. I wouldn't be surprised to find one or two.

April 17

So, on subject of April cooldowns, sam e list as I posted for record warm first 14 days, but now arranged not in order of CET but in order of size of cooldown. There could have been larger drops from less lofty starting points but as we are talking about warm starts transforming to near average end points, only these seem relevant.

YEAR ___ CET 1-13 _ CET 1-14 ___ end result __ CET drop 14 to 30 Apr

2024 ___ 11.53 ___ 11.39 ___ ___ ?? ?? ___ ___ ?? ??

1778 ___ 11.19 ___ 10.71 ___ ____ 8.2 ___ ___ 2.5

1815 ___ 10.42 ____ 9.93 ___ ____ 8.1 ___ ___ 1.8

1835 ___ 10.15 ___ 10.06 ___ ____ 8.6 ___ ___ 1.5

1926 ___ 10.59 ___ 10.47 ___ ____ 9.3 ___ ___ 1.2

1995 ___ 10.24 ___ 10.23 ___ ____ 9.1 ___ ___ 1.1

1803 ____ 9.93 ___ 10.07 ___ ____ 9.1 ___ ___ 1.0

1827 ____ 9.90 ____ 9.83 ___ ____ 8.9 ___ ___ 0.9

1894 ___ 10.42 ___ 10.29 ___ ____ 9.7 ___ ___ 0.6

1999 ___ 10.58 ___ 10.04 ___ ____ 9.5 ___ ___ 0.5

1792 ____ 9.95 ___ 10.16 ___ ___ 10.0 ___ ___ 0.2

2020 ___ 10.89 ___ 10.54 ___ ___ 10.5 ___ ___ 0.0

2014 ___ 10.35 ___ 10.31 ___ ___ 10.3 ___ ___ 0.0

1943 ___ 10.14 ___ 10.30 ___ ___ 10.5 ___ ___ up 0.2

1798 ____ 9.97 ___ 10.04 ___ ___ 10.3 ___ ___ up 0.3

1865 ___ 10.05 ____ 9.99 ___ ___ 10.6 ___ ___ up 0.6

2011 ___ 11.18 ___ 11.08 ___ ___ 11.9 ___ ___ up 0.8

April 16

Looks like 15 April will end a three-day run for 2024 at top of running CET (15th edged out 2011 at 11.1 C), and a seven-day run for top of running 31-day average (10.03 passed 1945 at 9.8, which tied 1803 in one dec). As both will be same (running CET) or higher (31-d) to 16th, 2024 will stop breaking these, and as you're discussing, probably won't return for any more spoils unless that warm spell at around weekend range locks in rather than yielding to cooler synoptics from north and east.

It has been snowing lightly here today after three days of 15-17 C sunshine, so it's a volatile time of year.

April 14

Well I promised to take a look back, and on page 185 of "spring weather" forum I found April 2011 CET contest thread, back in those days Summer Blizzard compiled lists of forecasts and had this posted on 2nd April, I have only copied those above 11.0 (and a few late forecasts by one day noted were all in a range of 9.9 to 10.7). Long-timers will know that Craig Evans was later Lettucing Gutted and was famous for predicting high numbers all the time (after a few years of less exotic punts when we started).

About one-third of current "regulars" were active then and a few other names have changed. If you want to know what you said for April 2011, have a look at the thread, it's interesting near the end too, as people discussed a historic month that had blown away a recent high set in 2007. Using CET legacy at the time, the scoring was done from 11.8. It has since changed to 11.9 in v2.0. So another win for Craig (to go with Dec 2015 and perhaps one or two others). Craig won on first entry at the time but now would be undisputed first.

I was amused to find that I had the same forecast in 2011 as I did this year, I hope it does as well but as you see one enthusiast went as high as 12.9 in 2011 (and finished about 8th using CET legacy).

11.0C: Tony H

11.1C: Don

11.2C: Glacier Point

11.5C: Roger J Smith

11.6C: Atlantic Flamethrower

12.0C: Craig Evans

12.9C: Backtrack

---------

I don't think anyone was complaining about April 2011, it was quite a dry and presumably sunny month and had pleasant warm spells all along its path. Near the discussion thread in the menu I noted a long-range forecast for summer 2011 that advertised a scorcher like 1976. Well ... the best weather of 2011 was probably in April and late Sep into early Oct.

Not sure if Atlantic Flamethrower is still active on Net-weather, but software would change username I think (and display it in Apr 2011 post), and the post is still under that name. Glacier Point is still active, I believe, in model discussion threads. I will check that point about changed user names, as I know at least three entrants in Apr 2011 now use different handles -- this is why I didn't post below 11.0, as I don't want to get into that domain. I'll let username-change people identify themselves, but the Craig Evans - Lettucing Gutted legacy in our contests is probably universally known (and celebrated) anyway. There were a couple of other temporary handles used too. The only reason I use my middle initial is because before I joined there was a Roger Smith (not me) who had joined up, but I don't think they stayed around very long (I joined in 2005 and NW started around 2003, the contests date back to around early 2006).

Wow, 13 years have gone by ... and we're still at it.

April 14

I agree, 75% of GFS dramatic cool-downs after seven days either fail to materialize or come in very weak and temporary. I don't know if it's a cumulative effect of climate warming overcoming what might have been good model development in an earlier setup, or a model flaw, but either way, it is well known even in "amateur" cli-met circles (people talk about it all the time on US weather forum too). Today (yesterday's running avg 11.5) could be our peak (hope not as it's also my forecast) but I would be surprised if we got much lower than 10.3 at any point.

Later on I will dive into the archives and see what happened in the April 2011 contest. (yes there was one ... this all started around 2006).

April 14

Dire or not, April 2024 is now top of the heap for running CET (was 0.1 back of 2011 after 12 days) ... to repeat an earlier post, top 20 include these:

YEAR ___ CET 1-13 _ CET 1-14 ___ end result

2024 ___ 11.53 ___ 11.39 ___ ___ ?? ??

1778 ___ 11.19 ___ 10.71 ___ ____ 8.2

2011 ___ 11.18 ___ 11.08 ___ ___ 11.9

2020 ___ 10.89 ___ 10.54 ___ ___ 10.5

1926 ___ 10.59 ___ 10.47 ___ ____ 9.3

1999 ___ 10.58 ___ 10.04 ___ ____ 9.5

1894 ___ 10.42 ___ 10.29 ___ ____ 9.7

1815 ___ 10.42 ____ 9.93 ___ ____ 8.1

2014 ___ 10.35 ___ 10.31 ___ ___ 10.3

1995 ___ 10.24 ___ 10.23 ___ ____ 9.1

1835 ___ 10.15 ___ 10.06 ___ ____ 8.6

1943 ___ 10.14 ___ 10.30 ___ ___ 10.5

1865 ___ 10.05 ____ 9.99 ___ ___ 10.6

1798 ____ 9.97 ___ 10.04 ___ ___ 10.3

1792 ____ 9.95 ___ 10.16 ___ ___ 10.0

1803 ____ 9.93 ___ 10.07 ___ ____ 9.1

1827 ____ 9.90 ____ 9.83 ___ ____ 8.9

(1945 ____ 9.77 ____ 9.91 ___ ___ 10.1)

(1850 ____ 9.75 ____ 9.74 ___ ____ 9.0)

(2007 ____ 9.52 ___ 9.86 ____ ___ 11.3)

Last three are not next consecutive but of interest.

You might recall that I had a table of record warm 31-day intervals when 2024 broke a few back in Feb.

We can now add 9 to 13 April as five additional such intervals taken down by 2024 (and no doubt also ending 14 Apr)

9.7 for 10-03 to 09-04 broke 9.6 in 1957.

9.8, 10.0, 10.2 and 10.3 broke values of 9.6, 9.5, 9.5 and 9.6 set in 2017 ending 10-13 April. Looks to be a sure bet for interval 15-03 to 14-04 to fall also.

In other words, if calendar months ended 9 to 13 April, 2024 would be warmest on record for them.

April 14

EWP scoring for contest year and April (based on est 95.0 mm)

In tables below, first rank is current contest rank, second rank was rank after March.

Same logic applies towards end of row to average error ranks. Everyone participating so far is given "consensus + 5 mm" errors for months they do not enter. In this case, consensus+5 is 1.5+5 = 6.5.

Winter results (Dec to Feb) are listed at end of row in [ ] square brackets -- first is rank of points, second is rank of avg error for winter season.

Also in your scoring line, your forecast is followed by a rank based on result of 75.0 mm. This rank is your scoring level before late penalties. As you may already know, late forecasts are docked 0.30 points per late day (indicated in table below by ^ symbol). Identical forecasts are scored one-half scoring interval lower for each, so if you're in rank seven but identical forecast to rank six, your scoring level is actually 6.5 not 7 (etc for 3+ duplicates). Otherwise with 53 forecasts the scoring interval is 0.19 (10.00 to 0.12) allowing for a downward adjustment for wrong sign errors and range errors. (It is very similar to CET scoring except instead of getting extra points for accuracy, you lose extra points for inaccuracy, but the math works out similar).

Using an estimate of 95.0 creates a number of tied errors (e.g. 85mm and 105mm). Rank is currently not indicated as tied, higher forecast is ranked ahead of lower forecast. At end of scoring, these equal-error situations are ranked as ties, unless one is above and other is below normal which would separate their points totals although not scoring levels.

<<< TABLE WILL BE ADJUSTED AS NEEDED >>>

__ a first version 75.0 mm is now deleted __

Ranks ___ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ Apr _TOTAL _______ Apr ___ Avg ______________________________ [points, avg err]

now (Mar)_fcst (rank)_FORECASTER ________ EWP scoring (pts) __ error__ avg 5mo (Ranks, now and after Mar) __ [winter]

_01 _ 07 ___ 95.0 (01) __ Feb1991blizzard_____10.00 __ 36.22 ______0.0 __ 31.22 mm _ 5 _ (8) ... ... [9, 9] ___

_02 _ 02 ___111.0 (28) __ summer18 ___________4.87 __ 34.86 ____ 16.0 __ 29.34 mm _ 2 _ (2) ... ... [3, 2] ___

_03 _ 01 ___ 78.0 (31) __ Jeff C _________________ 4.30 __ 34.76 _____17.0 __ 33.62 mm _ 7 _ (t4) ... ... [2, 8] ___

_04 _ 10 ___ 97.0 (05) __Mr Maunder __________ 9.33 ___34.68 _____ 2.0 __ 37.62 mm_ 13_ (26) ... ... [23, 33] ___

_05 _ 04 ___111.0 (29) __ DR(S)NO _____________4.77 __ 34.13 _____ 16.0 __ 34.62 mm_ 8 _ (t9) ... ... [10,15] ___

_06 _ 18 ___ 94.0 (02) __ February1978 ________ 9.81 __ 32.78 ______1.0 __ 35.02 mm_ 9 _ (18) ... ... [11, 11] ___

_07 _ 03 ___ 67.0 (41) __ Weather26 ___________ 2.40 __ 32.30 _____28.0 __ 37.70 mm _14 _ (12) ... ... [5,16] ___

_08 _ 05 ___ 75.0 (35) __ J 10 ___________________3.54 __ 32.13 _____ 20.0 __ 33.34 mm _ 6 _ (6) ... ... [4, 6] ___

_09 _ 17 ___100.0 (08) __ methuselah __________8.67 __ 31.90 _____ 5.0 __ 39.34 mm _ 22_ (27) ... ... [20, 28] ___

_10 _ 12 ___ 85.5 (18) __ Polar Gael ____________ 6.77 __ 31.67 _____ 9.5 __ 38.54 mm_t18 _(23) ... [25, 31] ___

(10.5)(21.8) _96.5 (24) ____ Consensus_________ 9.81 __ 30.58 _____ 1.5 __ 40.12 mm_23.0_(32.5) ... [22.7, 30.5]

_11 _ 14 ___110.0 (26) __ Frigid ________________ 5.43 __ 29.48 _____15.0 __ 28.82 mm _ 1_ (1) ... ... .. [7, 1] ___

_12 _ 19 ___108.0 (23) __Metwatch _____________5.82 __ 28.68 _____13.0 __ 36.74 mm_ 11_ (15) ... ... [14, 13] ___

_13 _ 06 ___130.0 (45) __ Emmett Garland _____1.60 __ 28.67 _____ 35.0 __ 41.22 mm_ 27_ (17) ... ...[17,23] ___

_14 _ 09 ___ 70.0 (39)__ virtualsphere _________ 2.59 __ 28.11 _____ 25.0 __ 36.54 mm _10 _ (11) ... ... [24, 22] ___

_15 _ 21 ___ 84.0 (20) __ dancerwithwings _____ 6.39 __ 27.90 _____11.0 __ 44.02 mm_ t43_(t39) ... ... [21, 36] ___

_16 _ 08 ___127.0 (43) __ snowray ______________2.00 __ 27.71 _____ 32.0 __37.82 mm _15 _ (t9) ... ... [13, 12] ___

_17 _ 16 ___ 77.0 (34) __ godber 1 ______________3.82 __ 27.46 _____18.0 __ 37.22 mm _12 _ (14) ... ... [6, 5] ___

_18 _ 35 ___ 97.0 (04) __ Mulzy _________________ 9.43 __ 26.42 _____ 2.0 __ 44.02 mm_ t43_ (47) ... ... [32, t46] ___

_19 _ 23 ___110.0 (27) __ jonboy _______________ 5.33 __ 26.27 _____15.0 __ 43.34 mm_ 34 _ (35) ... ... [18, t26] ___

_20 _ 33 ___ 91.0 (07) __ rwtwm _________________8.86 __ 25.98 ______4.0 __ 44.02 mm_ t43_ (46) ... ... [38, 52] ___

_21 _ 15 ___125.0 (42)^__ Don _________________ 1.90^__25.84 _____ 30.0 __ 38.22 mm _16_ (13) ... ... [8, 7] ___

_22 _ 11 ___ 45.0 (51) __stewfox _______________ 0.40 __ 25.46 _____50.0 __ 38.38 mm _17 _ (3) ... ... [16, 4] ___

_23 _ 26 ___110.0 (25) __ WYorksWeather ______5.53 __ 25.45 _____ 15.0 __ 43.46 mm_ 35 _ (36) ... .. [12, 17] ___

_24 _ 31 ___104.0 (17) __ Stationary Front ______6.96 ___25.29 _____ 9.0 __ 46.42 mm_ 56 _(t51) ... ... [47, 61] ___

_25 _ 27 ___110.0 (24) __ Addicks Fan 1981 _____5.63 __ 25.14 _____15.0 __ 38.54 mm _t18_ (20) ... .. [40, t26] ___

_26 _ 34 ___ 90.0 (13) __ weatherforducks ______7.90 ___24.93 _____ 5.0 __ 40.62 mm_ 25 _ (32) ... ... [44, 38] ___

(26.1)_(16.4)_59.2 (46.1)__1994-2023 average__1.38 ___24.87_____35.8 __42.70 mm _30.9_(20.0) ... [6.6,12.2] __

_27 _ 13 ___ -- -- ( --- ) __ noname_weather ____ --- --- __ 24.41 _____(6.5) __ 30.72 mm _ 4 _ (7) ... ... [ 1, 3 ] ___

(27.7)(20.4)_ 63.2 (42.9)__1991-2020 average__ 2.02 _ 23.97 ____31.8 __ 43.46 mm_ 36.0 _(24.4) ... [11.4, 14.9] __

_28 _ 24 ___ 74.0 (37) __ Reef ___________________ 3.16 __ 23.78 ____21.0 __ 43.54 mm_t37 _(t30) ... ... [22, 29] ___

_29 _ 20 ___133.0 (48)__I remember Atlantic252__ 1.00 __ 23.77 ____38.0 __ 43.54 mm_t37_ (22) ... ... [19, 18] ___

(29.9)(21.2) _64.8 (42.1) _ 1981-2010 average _ 2.18__ 23.40 ____30.2 __ 44.58 mm_44.3_(27.3) ... [17.6, 22.8]

_30 _ 29 ___112.0 (30) __chilly milly ______________ 4.49 __ 23.34 ____ 17.0 __ 38.62 mm_20_ (19) ... ... [15, 14] ___

_31 _ 28 ___113.0 (32) __ Midlands Ice Age ______ 4.09 __ 23.29 _____18.0 __ 43.82 mm_ t40_(34) ... ... [37, 41] ___

_32 _ 37 ___107.0 (21)^__seaside60 _____________ 5.90^__21.90 _____12.0 __ 45.42 mm _ 49_ (t43) ... ... [43, t54]

_33 _ 22 ___135.0 (49) __ Let It Snow! ____________ 0.80 __ 21.55 _____40.0 __ 42.22 mm_ 30_ (16) ... ... [30,t20] ___

_34 _ 40 ___ 87.0 (16)^__davehsug ______________ 6.85^__ 21.47 _____ 8.0 __ 46.22 mm_ 55_ (t51) ... ... [34, 43] ___

_35 _ 32 ___115.7 (36) __ Roger J Smith __________3.35 __ 20.91 ____ 20.7 __ 43.22 mm_ 32 _ (29) ... ... [33, 29] ___

_36 _ 25 ___ ( --- ) ( -- ) __ SteveB _________________ --- ---__ 20.26 _____(6.5)__ 43.52 mm_ 36 _ (42) ... ... [35, 58 ] ___

_37 _ 46 ___ 89.0 (15) __ daniel* ________________ 7.43 ___18.68 _____ 6.0 __ 51.42 mm_ 67 _ (67) ... ... [42, 60] ___

_38 _ 32 ___ ( --- ) ( -- ) __ SLEETY _________________ --- ---__18.36 _____(6.5) __ 30.52 mm _ 3 _ (t4) ... ... [45, 10] ___

_39 _ 48 ___100.0 (10) __ syed2878 ______________ 8.47 __18.34 ______ 5.0 __ 60.22 mm_ 76 _ (73) ... ... [72, 73] ___

_40 _ 38 ___ 70.0 (40) __ The PIT _________________2.49 __ 18.07 _____25.0 __ 52.22 mm_ 68_ (62) ... ... [27, t48] ___

_41 _ 49 ___100.0 (09) __ Leo97t _________________ 8.57 __18.01 _____ 5.0 __ 55.22 mm _ 72 _ (69) ... ... [50, 67] ___

_42 _ 36 ___ 53.0 (50) ___ summer blizzard ______0.64 __ 17.58 _____ 42.0 __ 53.02 mm _ 69_ (t51) ... ... [28, 51] ___

_43 _ 39 ___130.0 (46) __summer8906 ___________1.50 __16.13 _____ 35.0 __ 48.82 mm_ 63 _(t39) ... [41, 37] ___

(43.8)(40.5)_58.4 (46.9) __average of all data ____ 1.22 __ 15.65 _____36.6 __ 51.22 mm _66.8_ (47.3) ... [25.9, 34.8] _

_44 _ 41 ___131.8 (47) __KirkcaldyWeather ______ 1.20 __15.42 _____ 36.8 __ 44.90 mm _48 _ (24) ... ... [26, 19] ___

_45 _ 53 ___ 89.0 (14) __ Weather Observer ______7.53 __15.21 ______ 6.0 __ 55.54 mm_ 73 _ (70) ... ... [57, 69] ___

_46 _ 45 ___ 60.1 (44) __ Bobd29 ________________ 1.79 __13.47 _____ 34.9 __ 56.38 mm _74 _ (66) ... ... [48, 65] ___

_47 _ 42 ___ --- --- (---) __ ScottD _________________ --- ---__ 13.42 ____ (6.5) __ 40.64 mm _ 26_ (t30) ... ... [29, 25] ___

_48 _ 43 ___ --- --- (---) __ moorlander ___________ --- --- __ 13.13 ____ (6.5) __ 40.12 mm_ 23 _ (28) ... ... [31, 24] ___

_49 _ 55 ___ 85.0 (19) __ Matt Stoke ______________ 6.58 __12.88 ____ 10.0 __ 43.82 mm_t40 _(t39) ... ... [52, 34] ___

_50 _(50) __120.0 (38) _ B87 _____________________ 2.97 __ 12.37 _____25.0 __ 40.60 mm_ 24 _ (21) ....... ( -- -- ) ___

_51 _ 44 ___ --- --- ( --- ) __ prolongedSnowLover __ --- --- __ 12.30 ____ (6.5) __ 38.92 mm _21 _ (25) ... ... [36,t20] ___

_52 _ 56 ___ 83.0 (22) __ summer shower ________6.01 __12.26 _____12.0 __ 62.98 mm_ 77 _ (74) ... ... [53, 70] ___

_53 _ 47 __ -- -- ( --- ) __ Somerset girl ____________ --- ---__ 11.18 ____(6.5) __ 48.12 mm_ 62 _ (61) ... ... [39, 59] ___

_54 _(---) ___ 96.5 (03) __ Thomas Green __________ 9.61 __ 9.61 ____ 1.5 __ 43.30 mm _ 33 _ (---) ... ... first entry ___

_55 _ 51 ___ --- --- (---) __ Tillys ____________________--- --- ___ 9.14 ____(6.5) __ 41.32 mm _ 28_ (33) ... ... [46, 28] ___

_56 _(---) ___ 92.0 (06) __ Pulpstar _________________ 9.05 __ 9.05 _____3.0 __ 43.60 mm _ 39_ (---) ... ... first entry ___

_57 _ 52 ___ --- --- (---) __ John88b ________________--- --- __ 8.29 ____ (6.5) __ 45.92 mm _t53 _ (t51) ... ... [49, t48] ___

_58 _ 75 __ 90.0 (12) __ sunny_vale ________________8.00 __8.24 _____ 5.0 __ 47.80 mm_ 61_ (60) _ ... ... ( -- -- ) ___

_59 _(---) ___ 90.0 (11) __ Bluehedgehog074 ______ 8.10 __ 8.10 _____ 5.0 __ 44.00 mm _ 42_ (---) ... ... first entry ____

_60 _ 54 ___ --- --- (---) __ jmp223 __________________--- --- __ 7.08 ____ (6.5) __ 42.72 mm_ 31 _ (38) ... ... [51, 32] ___

_61 _ 70 ___ 77.0 (33) __ Neil N __________________ 3.92 __ 6.51 _____ 18.0 __ 66.62 mm _78 _ (75) ... ... [70, 72] ___

_62 _ 62 __ 40.0 (52) __ shillitocettwo _____________0.20 __ 5.44 _____55.0 __ 69.50 mm _79 _(72) ... ... [64, 71] ___

_63 _ 57 ___ --- --- (---) __ Wold Topper ____________ --- --- __ 6.18 ____ (6.5) __ 41.92 mm_ 29_ (37) ... ... [54, 30] ___

_64 _ 58 ___ --- --- (---) __ Shaunado _______________--- --- __ 5.64 _____(6.5) __ 50.66 mm_ 66_ (65) ... ... [55, 64] ___

_65 _ 59 ___ --- --- (---)__ summer of 95 ____________ -- -- __ 5.60 _____(6.5) __ 44.44 mm_ 47 _ (45) ... ... [56, 40]

_66 _ 60 ___ --- --- (---) __ Rob79812010 ____________ -- -- __ 5.56 _____(6.5) __ 44.32 mm_ 46 _(t43) ... ... [58. 39]

_67 _ 61 ___ --- --- (---) __ Earthshine _______________ -- -- __ 5.45 _____(6.5) __ 48.92 mm _ 64 _ (63) ... ... [59, 62] ___

_68 _ 63 ___ --- --- (---) __Wade ____________________ -- -- ___ 4.96 _____(6.5) __ 59.12 mm_ 75 _ (71) ... ... [73, 66] ___

_69 _ 64 ___ --- --- (---) __EastLancsRain ____________ -- -- __ 4.88 _____(6.5) __ 45.44 mm_ 50_ (48) ... ... [60, 44] ___

_70 _ 65 ___ --- --- (---) __harveyslugger ____________ -- -- __ 4.34 _____(6.5) __ 45.92 mm_t53_(t51) ... ... [61, t49] ___

_71 _ 66 ___ --- --- (---) __ Alexis J9 __________________ -- -- __ 3.99 _____(6.5) __ 45.52 mm_ 51_ (49) ... ... [62, 45] ___

_72 _ 67 __ --- --- (---) __ snowblind ________________ -- -- __ 3.67 _____(6.5) __ 45.76 mm _ 52_ (50) ... ... [63, t46] ___

_73 _ 68 __ --- --- (---) __sukayuonsensnow ________ -- -- __ 3.30 _____ (6.5) __ 46.92 mm_ 57 _ (56) ... ... [65, 53] ___

_74 _ 69 __ --- --- (---) __ Climate Man ______________ -- -- __ 2.90 _____(6.5) __ 47.32 mm_ t58_ (t57) ... ... [66, t54] ___

t75 _t71 __ --- --- (---) ___gazse9 ( -- ) _______________ -- -- __ 2.28 ____ (6.5) __ 47.32 mm_t58_ (t57) ... ... [t67, t54] ___

t75 _t71 __ --- --- (---) __ catbrainz __________________-- -- __ 2.28 ____ (6.5) __ 47.32 mm_ t58_ (t57) ... ... [t67, t54] ___

_77 _ 73 __ --- --- (---) __ Norrance _________________ -- -- __ 2.04 _____(6.5) __ 54.32 mm_ 70 _ (68) ... ... [69, 68] ___

_78 _ 74 __ --- --- (---) __ baddie ____________________--- ---__ 0.76 ____ (6.5) __ 49.46 mm_ 65_ (64) ... ... [71, 63] ___

_79 _ --- __153.0 (53) __ Met. ______________________ 0.00 __ 0.00 ____ 58.0 __ 54.60 mm_ 71_ (---) _ first entry ... ___

-------------------

April 12

Yesterday ran into fairly robust records and was below all, next two are a bit easier to crack:

11 Apr 2024 18.3 _____ 13.3 __________ 8.4

CET records:

11 Apr ... 21.8 (2020) ... 15.9 (1869) ... 11.5 (1981)
12 Apr ... 20.9 (2020) ... 14.5 (1939) ... 10.0 (1943,49)
13 Apr ... 19.3 (1945) ... 14.6 (1792) ... 10.3 (1939)

April 9

That 11.6 after eight days is now third highest running CET, only lower than 12.0 in 1926 and 11.7 in 2011, fourth place now goes to 1999 at 11.3 ... 2011 takes over the lead from 9th with a tie (1778) on 13 April and a couple of interruptions by 1945 around 18th to 20th. At this point it looks like 2024 could hang around the lead for a while but will eventually fall back into the 10s after possibly reaching 12 C by Friday or Saturday. 2011 only reached 12.0 for running CET values on 24th and 25th. 1945 got close in its brief flare up.

April 8

EWP already near 40 mm and suggestions of a similar amount to be added by near end of April, some previous runs were drier (and warmer) than today's run.

No new records on Sunday, min of 8.8 was a bit below and other two values (12.1, 15.5) were further below.

April 7

You would have to suppose that in late April 1775 one of the nights stayed above 13 C if those daily averages are reliable.

I suppose the slow rise in record high minima is due to greater frequencies of clear skies in warmer weather patterns going later into spring? Looking at may, the records don't exceed 14 C very often, and 15.1 on 31st (1895) is highest.

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Posts posted by Roger J Smith