Roger J Smith
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Posts posted by Roger J Smith
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Preliminary Contest Results including best combined
_ based on 8.1 C and 106 mm _
now appears on 1st April ...
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There were a few exceptionally cold days in April 1966 around 13th to 17th, I don't know any details of snowfall that occurred but CET daily records were broken. Later on it turned quite warm for a few days at end of April and into early may and one max record was set.
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Shil, scroll back to my previous post yesterday, a successive drop Feb to Apr has happened just once, in 1790. Otherwise, only a handful of Aprils colder than February. But I don't see how it can happen now to get march colder than Feb, even equal looks dubious. Quite a few Aprils have been colder than preceding march.
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April is rarely colder than (or equal to) its preceding February, the only cases are shown below (with their March values) ...
YEAR __ FEB _ MAR _ APR ___ range of values Feb-Apr
1702 __ 6.7 _ 5.8 _ 5.8 __________ 0.9 (7th closest set)
(1713 _ 5.5 _ 4.5 _ 5.5) __________ 1.0 (t8 closest set)
1739 __ 6.8 _ 5.8 _ 6.7 __________ 1.0 (t8 closest set)
(1743 _ 5.4 _ 5.3 _ 5.4) _______ 0.1 (closest to all three values same)
1790 __ 6.6 _ 6.4 _ 6.1 _________ 0.5 (2nd closest set, only one to include two decreases)
1809 __ 5.7 _ 6.0 _ 5.2 __________ 0.8 (6th closest set)
(1837 _ 4.7 _ 2.3 _ 4.7) ________________ 2.4
1903 __ 7.1 _ 7.1 _ 6.4 __________0.7 (t-4 closest set)
These also contain the two closest sets of Feb-Mar-Apr values by total range, cases that are also close (all within 1.0) but with APR above FEB are
1849 __ 5.7 _ 6.1 _ 6.4 _________ 0.7 (t-4 closest set)
1918 __ 6.5 _ 5.7 _ 6.7 __________ 1.0 (t8 closest set)
1990 __ 7.3 _ 8.3 _ 8.0 __________ 1.0 (t8 closest set)
1998 __ 7.2 _ 7.8 _ 7.7 _________ 0.6 (3rd closest set)
These two lists then supply the full set of eleven three-month cases all within 1.0 C.
All but one of the eight April-colder-or-equal cases joined that list.
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Yes, for EWP I would say we are around 74-75 mm as of 12z today (it was 67.8 after Saturday 23rd), and 12z GFS suggests about 20 mm grid average, possibly up to 25 mm, as southwest will be much wetter (50+) than most of grid. So it will likely be close to 100 mm by end of month.
Scoring was adjusted a while ago (using 106 mm), but any outcome of 100-106 mm would have almost no impact on scoring. Virtualsphere would win month (104 mm) for any outcome 99.6 mm to 107 mm and in any case would score more than B87 at 110 mm who has a 2d late penalty (equivalent to three scoring intervals). Polar Gael at 95.1 mm is the second most likely to get top score. Only DR(S)NO at 129 mm could potentially see significant changes, the adjustment from 90 to 106 gave DR(S)NO about six points (taking 0.2 away from about 30 scores passed as a result), so going back down into range of 95-100 would claw back about 2-3 points giving 0.2 apiece to current ranked 22-35 range. DR(S)NO would need an outcome of 112.2 mm to pass another seventeen ranked scores (up to and including Polar Gael), and would then gain another 3 to 3.5 points at their expense. DR(S)NO needs 116.6 mm to pass virtualsphere, and would then have high score but needs 119.6 mm to be at first scoring level ahead of late-penalized B87.
The latest GFS guidance for temps (and today's known values) would suggest a slight drop (average of 7.5 now to end including today) to 8.0 or 8.1.
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Again, that should read 1.9 above the 1981 to 2010 average
note it would also be 1.7 above the 1991 to 2020 average
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Frequency of cold months since 2001
... showing a gradual decline.
I listed all months with an overall CET ranking in colder half of data (ranks 183 coldest or colder). All other months finished in the top half of data. While this is not exactly same as below 1961-90 averages, it is probably close.
Numbers in table are colder half ranks, in bold. Other numbers in brackets are warmer half of all data.
Ranks are strictly as shown in CET tables, tied values do not alter a straight readout of ranks recorded.
While the format displays which months are cold and which are warm, letters c and w also confirm this.
YEAR __ JAN _FEB _ MAR _APR _MAY _JUN _ JUL _AUG _ SEP _ OCT _ NOV_ DEC ___ YEAR
2001 ___149 c _165 w _179 c _152 c _ 50 w _165 c _ 65 w _ 55 w _172 w _ 01 w _ 56 w _118 c ___ 63 w
2002 ___ 49 w _ 09 w _ 24 w _ 55 w _116 w _176 c _180 c _ 45 w _ 71 w _163 w _ 20 w _ 76 w ___ 12 w
2003 ___110 w _162 c _ 27 w _ 34 w _ 95 w _ 29 w _ 45 w _ 06 w _ 72 w _111 c _ 29 w _145 w ___ 19 w
2004 ___ 65 w _ 82 w _ 84 w _ 46 w _ 92 w _ 69 w _ 165 c _ 16 w _ 27 w _117 w _ 50 w _ 99 w ___ 22 w
2005 ___ 23 w _166 w _ 47 w _77 w _168 w _ 31 w _ 93 w _108 w _16 w _03 w _179 w_ 173 w___ 21 w
2006 ___117 w _161 c _161 c _110 w _ 64 w _ 32 w _ 01 w _111 w _ 02 w _ 04 w _ 28 w _ 31 w ___ 04 w
2007 ___ 05 w _ 50 w _ 34 w _ 02 w _103 w _ 89 w _118 c _ 175 c _126 w _ 74 w _ 70 w _124 w ___ 13 w
2008 ___ 09 w _ 77 w _122 w _171 w _12 w _114 c _121 w _ 92 w _162 w _164 c _ 94 w _119 c ___ 57 w
2009 ___148 c _176 w _ 48 w _ 15 w _ 84 w _124 w _129 w _ 62 w _ 78 w _ 35 w _ 13 w _ 94 c ___ 38 w
2010 ___ 65 c _105 c _ 112 w _ 78 w _123 c _ 81 w _ 64 w _ 147 c _ 125 w _137 w _ 91 c _ 02 c ___104 c
2011 ___165 w _ 22 w _ 66 w _ 01 w _ 73 w _101 c _ 117 c _174 c _ 21 w _ 11 w _ 02 w _ 56 w ___ 06 w
2012 ___ 41 w _171 c _ 05 w _111 c _115 w _ 70 c _160 c _ 61 w _148 c _163 c _113 w _134 w ___ 86 w
2013 ___183 c _127 c _ 14 c _ 142 c _ 87 c _ 83 c _ 09 w _ 38 w _141 w _ 12 w _172 w _ 37 w ___104 w
2014 ___ 31 w _ 35 w _ 22 w _ 07 w _ 65 w _ 88 w _ 32 w _111 c _ 22 w _ 13 w _ 14 w _102 w ___ 03 w
2015 ___108 w _182 w_ 95 w _66 w _132 c _129 c _156 w _125 w _ 89 c _ 65 w _ 04 w _ 01 w ___ 28 w
2016 ___ 40 w _104 w _150 w _141 c _ 47 w _ 80 w _ 77 w _ 33 w _ 06 w _ 75 w _111 c _ 55 w ___ 27 w
2017 ___134 w _ 37 w _ 03 w _ 76 w _ 19 w _ 28 w _ 86 w _165 w _160 w _16 w_115 w _143 w ___09 w
2018 ___ 52 w _111 c _160 c _ 23 w _ 15 w _ 23 w _ 03 w _ 59 w _136 w _102 w _ 22 w _20 w ___ 07 w
2019 ___136 w _ 11 w _ 15 w _ 63 w _182 w _167 c _ 39 w _ 32 w _73 w _172 w_170 w _66 w ___ 26 w
2020 ___ 14 w _ 27 w _ 69 w _ 04 w _ 49 w _ 68 w _181 c _ 13 w _115 w _104 w_ 18 w _117 w ___ 05 w
2021 ___156 c _ 87 w _ 41 w _ 49 c _ 69 c _ 46 w _ 31 w _ 141 w _ 07 w _ 19 w _ 69 w _ 35 w ___ 31 w
2022 ___ 93 w _ 10 w _ 11 w _ 62 w _ 22 w _108 w _ 20 w _ 03 w _ 57 w _ 05 w _ 08 w _117 c ___ 01 w
2023 ___ 63 w _ 25 w _ 54 w _111 w _ 51 w _ 05 w _138 w _ 90 w _ 01 w _ 17 w _ 61 w _ 15 w ___ 02 w
2024 ___ 87 w _ 02 w _ 10 w (est)
(note: warm ranks Apr to Dec, and annual, currently appear one rank above in table as rank 01 w is blank --
so for example, 182w May 2019 is in row 183w (or 184c). If May 2024 is warmer, it will move to rank 183w).
Mar 2024 is given arbitrary 10 w ranking for now.
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ANALYSIS:
Frequency of colder months has dropped after a spurt around 2010 to 2013. From 2001 to 2009, the average number of these colder months was about two per year. 2010, 2012 and 2013 all had six and 2011 three to give an average of five in that period. From July 2013 to present time the total count is only 14, little more than one per year.
It would appear that in this very recent period (mid 2013 to now), a ranking of about 90th warmest is the equilibrium, while from 2001 to 2009 it was closer to 110th warmest. If I redraw the table so that all months in range 121w to 183w join the cold (in bold type) it looks like this:
YEAR __ JAN _FEB _ MAR _APR _MAY _JUN _ JUL _AUG _ SEP _ OCT _ NOV_ DEC ___ YEAR
2001 ___149 c _165 w _179 c _152 c _ 50 w _165 c _ 65 w _ 55 w _172 w _ 01 w _ 56 w _118 c ___ 63 w
2002 ___ 49 w _ 09 w _ 24 w _ 55 w _116 w _176 c _180 c _ 45 w _ 71 w _163 w _ 20 w _ 76 w ___ 12 w
2003 ___110 w _162 c _ 27 w _ 34 w _ 95 w _ 29 w _ 45 w _ 06 w _ 72 w _111 c _ 29 w _145 w ___ 19 w
2004 ___ 65 w _ 82 w _ 84 w _ 46 w _ 92 w _ 69 w _ 165 c _ 16 w _ 27 w _117 w _ 50 w _ 99 w ___ 22 w
2005 ___ 23 w _166 w _ 47 w _77 w _168 w _ 31 w _ 93 w _108 w _16 w _03 w _179 w_ 173 w___ 21 w
2006 ___117 w _161 c _161 c _110 w _ 64 w _ 32 w _ 01 w _111 w _ 02 w _ 04 w _ 28 w _ 31 w ___ 04 w
2007 ___ 05 w _ 50 w _ 34 w _ 02 w _103 w _ 89 w _118 c _ 175 c _126 w _ 74 w _ 70 w _124 w ___ 13 w
2008 ___ 09 w _ 77 w _122 w _171 w _12 w _114 c _121 w _ 92 w _162 w _164 c _ 94 w _119 c ___ 57 w
2009 ___148 c _176 w _ 48 w _ 15 w _ 84 w _124 w _129 w _ 62 w _ 78 w _ 35 w _ 13 w _ 94 c ___ 38 w
2010 ___ 65 c _105 c _ 112 w _ 78 w _123 c _ 81 w _ 64 w _ 147 c _ 125 w _137 w _ 91 c _ 02 c ___104 c
2011 ___165 w _ 22 w _ 66 w _ 01 w _ 73 w _101 c _ 117 c _174 c _ 21 w _ 11 w _ 02 w _ 56 w ___ 06 w
2012 ___ 41 w _171 c _ 05 w _111 c _115 w _ 70 c _160 c _ 61 w _148 c _163 c _113 w _134 w ___ 86 w
2013 ___183 c _127 c _ 14 c _ 142 c _ 87 c _ 83 c _ 09 w _ 38 w _141 w _ 12 w _172 w _ 37 w ___104 w
2014 ___ 31 w _ 35 w _ 22 w _ 07 w _ 65 w _ 88 w _ 32 w _111 c _ 22 w _ 13 w _ 14 w _102 w ___ 03 w
2015 ___108 w _182 w_ 95 w _66 w _132 c _129 c _156 w _125 w _ 89 c _ 65 w _ 04 w _ 01 w ___ 28 w
2016 ___ 40 w _104 w _150 w _141 c _ 47 w _ 80 w _ 77 w _ 33 w _ 06 w _ 75 w _111 c _ 55 w ___ 27 w
2017 ___134 w _ 37 w _ 03 w _ 76 w _ 19 w _ 28 w _ 86 w _165 w _160 w _16 w_115 w _143 w ___09 w
2018 ___ 52 w _111 c _160 c _ 23 w _ 15 w _ 23 w _ 03 w _ 59 w _136 w _102 w _ 22 w _20 w ___ 07 w
2019 ___136 w _ 11 w _ 15 w _ 63 w _182 w _167 c _ 39 w _ 32 w _73 w _172 w_170 w _66 w ___ 26 w
2020 ___ 14 w _ 27 w _ 69 w _ 04 w _ 49 w _ 68 w _181 c _ 13 w _115 w _104 w_ 18 w _117 w ___ 05 w
2021 ___156 c _ 87 w _ 41 w _ 49 c _ 69 c _ 46 w _ 31 w _ 141w _ 07 w _ 19 w _ 69 w _ 35 w ___ 31 w
2022 ___ 93 w _ 10 w _ 11 w _ 62 w _ 22 w _108 w _ 20 w _ 03 w _ 57 w _ 05 w _ 08 w _117 c ___ 01 w
2023 ___ 63 w _ 25 w _ 54 w _111 w _ 51 w _ 05 w _138 w _ 90 w _ 01 w _ 17 w _ 61 w _ 15 w ___ 02 w
2024 ___ 87 w _ 02 w _ 10 w (est)
(the frequency then increases to four per year 2001-09, 6.75 for 2010-13, and close to three per year since 2014. )
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Summer Sun, a typo crept into your daily reports, line two should read "above the 81 to 10 average" .
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Top 30 CET values
listed as ties in one decimal, in order of table (using table, no way to tell if any are also tied in two decimals but if not, the order is shown (e.g. 1997 is listed 4th and 2012 as 5th etc). I placed 2024 in at 8.1 in tenth.
1. 1957 __ 9.2
2. 1938 __ 9.1
3. 2017 __ 8.8
4-5. 1997, 2012 __ 8.4
6-7. 1948, 1990 __ 8.3
8-9. 1961, 1750 __ 8.2
10-11. 2024, 1734 __ 8.1
12. 2022 __ 8.0
13-16. 1780, 1779, 2019, 1945 __ 7.9
17-20. 1981, 1991, 1998, 1822 __ 7.8
21-22. 1830, 2014 __ 7.7
23-24. 1994, 2002 __ 7.6
25-30. 2000, 1841, 2003, 1723, 1989, 1992 __ 7.5
_______________
EWP of 111.5 mm was 13th wettest (of 259)
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As trends are stable, I adjusted EWP scoring to 106 mm (several pages back now). Only a few wet forecasts improved scores, but most just dropped by a small amount.
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Looks to me like CET could end up around 7.6 to 7.9 and EWP 95-100 mm, will wait to see if EWP trend stays in same range before editing scoring table.
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20 Mar 2024 tied 1779 for daily mean (12.3) and edged out 2017 for high min (9.5).
Today looks a bit cooler than record values. Will probably be enough to push CET to 8.2 next report.
2024 already sits at 3.5 daily mean records, top ten yearly counts are between 8 and 11.
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I believe that (1990) is the highest mean monthly for Jan, Feb and Mar (equal weighted it would be 7.37 C). Second highest would be 2007 (avg 6.77) and 2024 would need to be 7.8 to tie it -- next are t3 1998 tied 2002 (avg 6.70) just ahead of 5th 1957 at 6.67. 2024 would tie 1998/2002 with a 7.6 Mar, and 1957 with 7.5. ... 1938 average 6.63 (7.4 needed to tie) ... 1834 was next at 6.60, and 2020 average was 6.57. So, the following is a list of all cases where Jan to Mar average 6.0 or higher (total CET 18 or greater).
Jan to Mar average 6.0 or greater (rank order) and what 2024 needed to tie
Rank ___ YEAR __ JAN _FEB _MAR ____ Average ___ 2024 to tie
_ 01 ____ 1990 ___ 6.5 _ 7.3 _ 8.3 _____ 7.37 ________ 9.6
_ 02 ? ___2024 ___ 4.7 _ 7.8 _ 8.1 _____ 6.87 ________ (result) _ edited in on 2nd April
... as 2024 secured 2nd, following ranks are now one greater ...
_ 03 ____ 2007 ___ 7.0 _ 6.0 _ 7.3 _____ 6.77 ________ 7.8
_t04 ____ 1998 ___ 5.1 _ 7.2 _ 7.8 _____ 6.70 ________ 7.6
_t04 ____ 2002 ___ 5.5 _ 7.0 _ 7.6 _____ 6.70 ________ 7.6
_ 06 ____ 1957 ___ 5.5 _ 5.3 _ 9.2 _____ 6.67 ________ 7.5
_ 07 ____ 1938 ___ 5.7 _ 5.1 _ 9.1 _____ 6.63 ________ 7.4
_t08 ____ 1834 ___ 7.1 _ 5.6 _ 7.1 _____ 6.60 ________ 7.3
_t08 ____ 2014 ___ 5.8 _ 6.3 _ 7.7 _____ 6.60 ________ 7.3
_ 10 ____ 2020 ___ 6.4 _ 6.5 _ 6.8 _____ 6.57 ________ 7.2
_t11 ____ 1989 ___ 6.1 _ 6.0 _ 7.5 _____ 6.53 ________ 7.1
_t11 ____ 2022 ___ 4.7 _ 6.9 _ 8.0 _____ 6.53 ________ 7.1
_t13 ____ 1686 ___ 6.5 _ 6.0 _ 7.0 _____ 6.50 ________ 7.0
_t13 ____ 1921 ___ 7.3 _ 4.8 _ 7.4 _____ 6.50 ________ 7.0
_t15 ____ 1961 ___ 3.9 _ 6.9 _ 8.2 _____ 6.33 ________ 6.5
_t15 ____ 2017 ___ 4.0 _ 6.2 _ 8.8 _____ 6.33 ________ 6.5
_ 17 ____ 1750 ___ 4.0 _ 6.7 _ 8.2 _____ 6.30 ________ 6.4
_t18 ____ 1733 ___ 6.9 _ 6.0 _ 5.9 _____ 6.27 ________ 6.3
_t18 ____ 1734 ___ 4.3 _ 6.4 _ 8.1 _____ 6.27 ________ 6.3
_t18 ____ 1822 ___ 4.7 _ 6.3 _ 7.8 _____ 6.27 ________ 6.3
_t18 ____ 1846 ___ 6.3 _ 6.4 _ 6.1 _____ 6.27 ________ 6.3
_t18 ____ 2019 ___ 4.0 _ 6.9 _ 7.9 _____ 6.27 ________ 6.3
_t23 ____ 1779 ___ 2.9 _ 7.9 _ 7.9 _____ 6.23 ________ 6.2
_t23 ____ 1872 ___ 5.0 _ 6.9 _ 6.8 _____ 6.23 ________ 6.2
_t23 ____ 1882 ___ 5.2 _ 6.1 _ 7.4 _____ 6.23 ________ 6.2
_t23 ____ 2023 ___ 5.2 _ 6.5 _ 7.0 _____ 6.23 ________ 6.2
_ 27 ____ 2000 ___ 4.8 _ 6.2 _ 7.5 _____ 6.17 ________ 6.0
_t28 ____ 1903 ___ 4.2 _ 7.1 _ 7.1 _____ 6.13 ________ 5.9
_t28 ____ 1920 ___ 5.2 _ 6.0 _ 7.2 _____ 6.13 ________ 5.9
_t28 ____ 1948 ___ 5.4 _ 4.7 _ 8.3 _____ 6.13 ________ 5.9
_t28 ____ 2008 ___ 6.7 _ 5.6 _ 6.1 _____ 6.13 ________ 5.9
_ 32 ____ 1884 ___ 6.4 _ 5.3 _ 6.5 _____ 6.07 ________ 5.7
_ 33 ____ 1999 ___ 5.5 _ 5.3 _ 7.3 _____ 6.03 ________ 5.6
_ 34 ____ 1761 ___ 5.4 _ 5.8 _ 6.8 _____ 6.00 ________ 5.5
__________________
1997 and 2012 were just below 6.0 due to one colder month (Jan 97, Feb 12)
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Could see that 1779 record going too, by looks of today's reported max and min so far, oddly Feb 1779 did not retain any records past about 1950, but mar 1779 has the one to its credit.
The three-way tie for 21st involves 1927, 1931 and 2002.
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19th held on to all CET records (17.5 1972, 11.8 1822, 9.6 2017) as 2024 values were 13.7, 11.3, 9.0 yesterday.
Today's record mean is actually from 1779 (12.3) -- the recent highest mean was only 10.9 in 1992 -- and 1779 like 1822 does not have a corresponding max (those started in 1878), but we're into a season now where most days have quite high max records going along with cooler minima on clear nights (the 20th record high max was 17.2 (1929), and record high min 9.4 was also in 2017). The record high mean on 21st (possibly about to be challenged) is only 11.7 and is a three-way tie in v2.0, so would like to clear out that mess with a solo record, and get on to working the CET down into the vicinity of 7.4 just sayin.
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April CET statistics
__ the most recent 43 values are shown in three groups (14,14,15) -- bold warmest, italic medium values, underlined coolest)
__ the 1981-2010 and 1991-2020 averages are in bold italics. All data now v2.0.1.0 CET.
19.7 ... warmest April daily mean (29th, 1775)
11.9 ... warmest April (2011)11.3 ... 2nd warmest April (2007)
10.6 ... 3rd warmest April (1865)
10.5 ... tied 4th warmest April (2020) and 1943 (5th in 2 decimals)
10.3 ... t6th warmest Aprils (tied 1798, 1893, 1987, 2014) (order 6, 8, 9, 7 in two decimals)
10.2 ... t10th warmest 1794, 1796, 1944 (order 12, 11, 10 in two decimals)
10.1 ... t13th warmest 1783, 1869, 1945 (order 15, 13, 14 in two decimals)
10.0 ... 16th warmest Aprils (seven tied, including 2009) which is 16th in two decimals
9.9 ... 2018
9.6 ... 2003
9.5 ... 1999
9.4 ... 1993, 2004
9.3 ... 2002
9.2 ... 2019, 2022
9.1 ... 1995, 2015
9.0 ... average for 1991-2020 (8.96) ...1997, 2017 ... also average 2001-2023 (9.03).
... ... also mean for 14 yrs 1862-1875 (surprise?) ... 1991-2020 is also highest 30-year average
8.9 ... 2005, 2010 and average for 1994-2023
8.7 ... 1992, 2006, 2023
8.6 ... 1982
8.5 ... 1996 ... average for 1981-2010
8.3 ... 1985
8.2 ... 1988
8.1 ... 1984 ... and average for 1971-2000 (8.06) (and 20th century 1901-2000) (8.05)
8.0 ... 1990, 1994, 2008 ... also average for all data 1659-2023 (7.954)
7.9 ... 1991 ... average for 1961-1990, also 18th century 1701-1800 (7.907) and 19th century 1801-1900 (7.947)
7.8 ... 1981
7.7 ... 1998, 2000, 2001
7.6 ... 2013
7.5 ... 2016
7.3 ... 2012 ... and average for 1659-1700
7.0 ... lowest 30-yr average for April (6.96 1673-1702)
6.8 ... 1983
6.6 ... 1989
6.5 ... 2021 tied 40th coldest (placed 49th in two decimals), and second coldest since 1941 (6.4)
5.8 ... 1986 tied 18th coldest and coldest since 1922
5.7 ... 16th coldest (tied) 1784 and 1879
5.5 ... ninth coldest (tied) - 1922 with six other years (1922 placed coldest of them at 9th in two decimals)
5.4 ... fifth coldest (tied) -- 1917 (coldest 20th century) also 1743,1770,1799
5.2 ... third coldest (tied) -- 1782 and 1809
4.7 ... coldest Aprils (1701 and 1837)
--0.2 ... coldest April daily mean second half (19th, 1772)--0.4 ... coldest April daily mean since 1799 (2nd 1917)
--0.5 ... coldest April daily mean (3rd, 1799)
_________________________________________________________________
Enter your forecast for APRIL 2024 by the penalty-free deadline of 00:00 1st of April (end of Sunday 31st March)
... or take a penalty during the first three days of April for a late entry.
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ ================================================= _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
EWP contest for April 2024
The data set in use for the contest (Hadley EWP) with data from 1766 to 2023.
Contest is based on a prediction of April precip in mm. These are the record and average values:
149.9 __ 2012 __ wettest 1766 to 2023
142.6 __ 2000 __ 2nd wettest
139.0 __ 1782 __ was the record until 2000 (now third wettest)
135.6 __ 1818 __ was 2nd wettest until 2000 (now fourth wettest)
130.9 __ 1998 __ went from 3rd to 4th to 5th wettest April within 14 years.
64.8 __ average 1981-2010
63.2 __ average 1991-2020
59.2 __ average 1994-2023
58.4 __ average all data 1766 to 2023
10.4 __ 2007 __ driest in 1981-2023 period (1984 was 10.7 and 2011 was 11.6)
07.1 __ 1938 __ driest 1766 to 2023
recent April EWP values ...
2023_76.8 mm, 2022_31.0 mm, 2021_13.5 mm, 2020_35.7 mm, 2019_45.9 mm, 2018 _ 91.4 mm, 2017 _ 19.9 mm, 2016 _ 73.3 mm,
2015 _ 28.1 mm, 2014 _ 63.8 mm, 2013_ 34.7 mm, 2012_ 149.9 mm, 2011_ 11.6 mm, 2010_ 30.1 mm, 2009_ 48.0 mm.
____________________________________ ^ ___________________________________
Enter this contest by the same deadline, 10.0 points for closest forecast, 0.3 penalty points per day late (first three days of April).
You can add your EWP forecast to your CET temperature forecast.
Good luck!!
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Following table posted in Feb CET contest ...
... data are for 31 days ending on date reported, e.g., 8 Jan 2016 refers to 9 Dec 2015 to 8 Jan 2016.
... *as only leap years can end on 29 Feb, 1872 (7.0) is record, but if 1779 was a leap year it would be 7.9 ending 29 Feb.
__Warmest 31d intervals ending on every calendar date__
date __ JAN _ FEB _ MAR _APR _ MAY _ JUN _JUL _ AUG _ SEP _OCT _ NOV _ DEC
_01 __ 2016 _1916_1779_1957_2011_1833_1846_2006_1997_2023_2001_1994
________9.5 __ 7.4 __ 7.9 __ 9.3 _11.9 _15.3 _18.1 _ 19.7 _18.9 _17.0 _13.1 _ 9.8
_02 __ 2016 _1796_1779_1957_2011_1833_1846_2006_1997_2023_2005_1994
________9.3 __ 7.3 __ 7.9 __ 9.3 _11.9_15.5 _18.1 _ 19.6 _18.9 _16.9 _13.1 __ 9.8
_03 __ 2016 _1796_1779_1957_2011_1833_1846_2006_1997_2023_2005_1994
________9.2 __ 7.2^__ 7.8 __ 9.4 _11.7 _15.4 _18.1 _ 19.6 _18.9 _16.8 _13.3 __ 9.8
_04 __ 2016 _1796_1779_1957_2011_1833_1846_1995_1997_2023_2005_1994
_________9.1 __ 7.2^__ 7.9 __ 9.6 _11.7 _15.4 _18.2^_19.6 _18.9 _16.6 _13.2 __ 9.8
_05 __2016 _1796,1834_1779_1957_2011_1833_1976_1995_1997_2023_2005_1994
_________9.1 __ 7.1^ __ 8.1 __ 9.9 _11.9 _15.3^_18.5 _19.6 _18.8 _16.5 _13.1 __ 9.6
_06 __2016_ 1990_1779_1957_2011_1833_ 1976_1995_2022_2023_2005_1994
_________8.9 __ 7.1 __ 8.2 __ 9.9 _12.0 _15.4 _18.8 _19.6 _18.8 _16.3 _13.1 __ 9.4
_07 __ 2016 _1990_1779_1957_2011_1833_ 1976_1995_2022_2023_2005_1994
_________8.7 __ 7.1^__ 8.2 __ 9.8 _12.1 _15.5 _19.0 _19.6 _18.8 _16.2 _12.9 __ 9.4
_08 __ 2016 _2002_1779_1957_2011_1833_ 1976_1995_2022_2023_2005_1994
_________8.5 __ 7.2^__ 8.2 __ 9.7 _12.2 _15.5 _19.1 _19.5 _18.7 _16.0 _12.8 __ 9.3
_09 __ 2016 _2002_1779_2024_2011_1833_ 1976_1995_2022_2023_2005_1994
_________8.5 __ 7.4 __ 8.1 __ 9.7^_12.2^_15.6 _19.0 _19.4 _18.6 _15.8^_12.8 __ 9.2
_10 __ 2016 _2002_1779_2024_2011_1833_ 1976_1995_2022_2006_2005_1994
_________8.4 __ 7.6 __ 8.0 __ 9.8 _12.3 _15.7 _19.0^_19.3 _18.5 _15.8 _12.6 __ 9.1
_11 __ 2016 _2002_1998_2024_2011_1833_ 1976_1995_1947_2006_2005_1994
_________8.3 __ 7.8 __ 7.9 __9.8^_12.3 _15.7 _19.1^_19.4 _18.4 _15.7 _12.5 __ 9.2
_12 __ 2016 _2002_2019_2024_2011_1992_ 1976_1995_1947_2006_2022_1994
_________8.3 __ 8.0 __ 7.8^_10.0^_12.3 _15.5^_19.3 _19.4 _18.3 _15.5 _12.3 __ 9.2
_13 __ 2016 _2002_1961_2024 _2011_1822_ 1976_1995_1947_1949_2022_1994
_________8.2 __ 8.0 __7.9^__10.2 _12.3 _ 15.7 _19.4 _19.4 _18.2 _15.5^_12.3 _ 9.3
_14 __ 2016 _2002_2019_2024_2011_1822_ 1976_1995_1947_1949_2022_1994
_________8.1^__ 7.9 __8.0^_10.2^_12.4 _ 15.9 _19.5 _19.4 _18.0 _15.2 _12.3 _ 9.0
_15 __ 1975 _2002_2019_2024_1893_1822_ 1976_2022_1947_1949_2022_1994
_________8.1 __ 7.8 __ 8.1 _10.0^_12.6 _16.1 _19.5 _19.5^_18.0 _15.2 _12.2 _ 8.7
_16 __ 1975 _2002_2019_1945_1893_1822_ 1976_1995^_1947_1949_2022_1994
_________8.1 __ 7.7 __ 8.2 __10.2 _12.8 _16.2 _19.6 _19.6 _17.9 _15.2 _12.1 _ 8.4
_17 __ 1975 _2002_2019_1945_1893_1846_ 1976_1995_2023_1949_2022_1994
_________8.0 __ 7.7 __ 8.2 __10.3^_12.9 _ 16.2 _19.7 _19.7 _17.6^_15.1 _12.0 _ 8.4
_18 __ 1975 _2002,24_1990_1945_1893_1846_ 1976_1995_2023_1949_2022_1994
_________7.9 __ 7.7 __ 8.3 __10.6 _13.1 _ 16.5 _19.8 _19.8 _17.5 _15.0 _11.9 _ 8.3
_19 __ 1975 _2024_1990_1945_1893_1846_ 1976_1995_2023_1949_2022_1828
_________7.8 __ 8.1 __ 8.5 __10.7 _13.1 _ 16.8 _19.9 _19.9&_17.4 _14.9 _11.8 _8.5^ _
_20 __ 1975 _2024_1990_1945_1893_1846_ 1976_1995_2023_1949_2022_1828
_________7.7^__ 8.3 __ 8.6 __11.0 _ 13.1 _ 17.2 _20.0 _19.9 _17.3 _14.8 _11.6 _8.5
_21 __ 1916 _2024_1990_1945_1833_1846_ 1976_1995_2023_1949_2022_1828
_________7.6 __ 8.3 __ 8.7 __11.0 _ 13.3 _ 17.4 _20.0 _20.0 _17.2 _14.6 _11.3 _8.6^
_22 __ 1916 _2024_1990_2011_1833_1846_ 1976_1995_2016_1949_ 2022 _2015
_________7.7 __ 8.3 __ 8.7 __11.0 _ 13.6 _ 17.7 _20.1 _20.2 _17.0^_14.5 _11.1 _8.8
_23 __ 1916 _2024_1990_2011_1833_1846_ 1976_1995_2016,23_1949_2022_2015
_________7.6 __ 8.2^__ 8.6 __11.2 _13.8 _ 17.7 _20.0 _20.3 _16.8^_14.2 _10.9 _ 9.0
_24 __ 1916 _2024_1990_2011_1833_1846_ 1976_1995_2006,23_1949_2022_2015
_________7.6 __ 8.0 __ 8.6 __11,3 _14.0 _ 17.7 _19.8 _20.2 _16.7^_13.9^ _10.7 _ 9.2
_25___ 1916 _2024_1990_2011_1833_1846_ 1976_1995_2006_2001_2022_2015
_________7.6 __ 7.9 __ 8.5^__11.4 _14.2 _ 17.7 _19.7 _20.2_16.8^_13.8^_10.6 _ 9.3
_26 __ 1916 _2024_1957_2011_1833_1846_ 1976_1995_2023_1921_1994_2015
_________7.6 __ 7.8 __ 8.7 __11.5 _14.5 _ 17.8 _19.6 _20.1 _16.8^_13.7 _10.4 _ 9.4
_27 __ 1916 _1869_1957_2011_1833_1846_ 1976_1995_2023_1921_1994_2015
_________7.6 __ 7.7 __ 8.8 __11.6 _14.5 _ 17.8 _19.5 _20.0 _16.9 _13.8 _10.4 _ 9.4
_28 __ 1916 _1779_1957_2011_1833_1846_ 2006_1995_2023_2001_1994_2015
_________7.7 __ 7.7 __ 8.9 __11.6 _14.6 _ 18.0 _19.7 _19.7 _16.9 _13.7 _10.3 _ 9.4
_29 __ 1916_1872* 1957_2011_1833_1846_ 2006_1995_2006,23_2001_1994_2015
_________7.8 __7.0* __9.0 __11.8 _14.7 _ 18.1 _19.8 _19.5_16.87_13.6 _10.2 _ 9.6
_30 __ 1916 _ xxxx _1957_2011_1833_1846_ 2006_1995_2023_2001_1994_2015
_________7.7 __-- -- __9.1 __11.9 _14.9 _ 18.1 _19.8 _19.3 _16.9 _13.4 _10.0 _ 9.7
_31 __ 1916 _xxxx _1957_xxxx_1833_xxxx_ 2006_1995_xxxx_2001_ xxxx_2015
_________7.6 __-- -- __9.2 __-- -- __15.1 _ -- -- _ 19.8 _ 19.1 _-- -- _13.2 _-- -- _ 9.6
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So, while there are only 12 years with the distinction of holding a warmest month, there are many years that have at least one warmest 31-day interval (or are tied in one decimal). Several years (incl 1846, 1976, 1990, 2006, 2011, 2015, 2022) produced two entirely separate ones, and 2006 also participates in a third near miss in mid-January of 2007.
Note: intervals ending 10-14 Apr 2024 broke 2017 records of 9.6, 9.5, 9.5, 9.6, 9.6 and ending 9 Apr 1957 9.6. (also broke 15 Apr 1945 9.8)
^ years tied in one decimal (and a few near misses)
15 Dec - 14 Jan (2015-2016 _ 8.13) (1974-1975 8.08)
21 Dec - 20 Jan (1974-1975 _ 7.65) (1975-1976 7.48 ... stays 0.1 to 0.2 lower than 1915-1916 run for several days.
... ... ... Peak is 7.57 for 23 Dec to 22 Jan 1976
... ... 1920-1921 also approaches but does not overtake 1915-1916 (peak 25 Dec 1920 - 24 Jan 1921 is 7.56).
4 Jan - 3 Feb 1796 (7.22) _ 1916 (7.17)
5 Jan - 4 Feb 1796 (7.14) _ 1834 (7.13)
6 Jan - 5 Feb 1796,1834 (7.10) _ 1846 (7.06)
8 Jan - 7 Feb 1990 (7.08) _ 2002 (7.06)
9 Jan - 8 Feb 2002 (7.18) _ 1990 (7.16)
24 Jan - 23 Feb 1903 (7.44) _ 2002 (7.40) both lost out to 8.18 2024
10 Feb - 12 Mar 2019 (7.81) _ 1998 (7.80). 1961 (7.77). 2007 (7.75)
11 Feb - 13 Mar 1961 (7.89) _ 2007, 2019 (7.85)
12 Feb - 14 Mar 2019 (8.01) _ 1961 (7.95)
23 Feb - 25 Mar 1990 (8.51) _ 1957 (8.50)
10 Mar - 9 Apr 1957 (9.60) _ 2017 (9.56) _ broken by 2024 (9.73)
11 Mar - 10 Apr 2017 9.6 (not tied) _ 2024 9.81
12 Mar -11 Apr 2017 (9.50) _ 2011 (9.47) _ broken by 2024 (10.02)
13 Mar -12 Apr 2017 (9.49) _ 2011 (9.45) _ broken by 2024 (10.23)
15 Mar -14 Apr 2011 (9.60) _ 1803 (9.58) _ broken by 2024 (10.15)
16 Mar -15 Apr 1945 (9.84) _ 1803 (9.77) _ broken by 2024 (10.03)
18 Mar -17 Apr 1945 (10.30) _ 1803 (10.28)
09 Apr - 09 May 2011 (12.23) _ 2007 (12.15) _ after several days within 0.1, this was only one dec tie, next day was 0.02 diff (12.25-12.23) ...
... ... note also 1775 was close to level by end of 2011 run, but as it passed 2011, 1893 began a week-long run (1775 was 0.1 back for 14 Apr - 14 May
... ... and peaked at 12.64 for 17 Apr - 17 May (but 1833 was already up to 12.93) .
06 May - 05 June 1833 (15.32) _ 1947 (15.25)
13 May - 12 June 1992 (15.54) _ 1833 (15.52) _ 1822 (15.49)
04 June - 04 July 1846 (18.20) _ 1976 (18.18)
11 June - 11 July 1826 peaked 18.90 (rounded to 18.9 four intervals 9-12 Jun to 9-12 July)
27 June - 27 July 2006 (19.47) _ 1976 (19.45) _ also (not tied) 2018 _ 19.42
2 July - 1 Aug 1983 peaked at 19.44 (not a record, 2006 was 19.69
4 July - 3 Aug 1995 (19.34) _ 2006 (19.31) _ also (not tied) 2018 _ 19.22
15 July - 14 Aug 2022 (19.50) _ 1995 (19.49) _ note 2003 peaked 13,14 July - 12,13 Aug at 19.10,
... ... ... 1990 also peaked at 18.53 13 Jul - 12 Aug. (2019 10 Jul - 9 Aug 18.35)
16 July - 15 Aug 1995 (19.61) _ 2022 (19.55) _ also 1975 (18.96) peaked
__ note& 20, 21 July - 19, 20 Aug 1911 peaked at 19.46
11 Aug - 10 Sep ... 1898 peaked at 17.61, and stayed about 0.8 below record pace to 0.3 below records by 23 Aug-22 Sep
18 Aug - 17 Sep _ 2023 (17.61) _ 1947 (17.60)
23 Aug - 22 Sep _ 2016 (17.02) _ 2023 (16.96) _ 1865 peaked two days earlier at 16.96 (not a record)
24 Aug - 23 Sep _ 2016,2023 (16.79) _ 1949 (16.76)
25 Aug - 24 Sep _ 1949, 2006 (16.70) _ 2023 (16.69)
26 Aug - 25 Sep _ 2006 (16.79) _ 2023 (16.76)
27 Aug - 26 Sep _ 2023 (16.80) _ 2006 (16.78)
30 Aug - 29 Sep _ 2006,23 (16.87) _ 1949 was 16.53, staying 0.1-0.3 below all records since it tied a record 25 Aug-24 Sep.
31 Aug - 30 Sep _ 2023 (16.89) _ 2006 (16.85) ... 2006 began to fall off 2023 pace but returned to record status later.
9 Sep - 9 Oct _ 2023 (15.81) _ 2006 (15.75)
13 Sep - 13 Oct _ 1949 (15.34) _ 2006 (15.30)
24 Sep - 24 Oct _ 1949 (13.94) _ 2001 (13.85) _ note 1921 was close to record pace for previous ten days, 0.2 to 0.4 below 1949.
25 Sep - 25 Oct _ 2001 (13.82) _ 1949 (13.75)
Oct-Nov 2022 run wiped out runs for 2015 and 1978; 1938 was not a factor, only a 20-day spike in CET values 1-20 Nov.
18 Nov - 18 Dec 2015 (8.38) _ 1828 (8.37)
19 Nov - 19 Dec 1828 (8.47) _ 2015 (8.45)
21 Nov - 21 Dec 1828 (8.63) _ 2015 (8.58) _ 1934 (8.45)
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If we did not have a calendar we would probably consider all of date 31-day averages equally valid. Our calendar is basically a sort of blend of lunar cycle and annual cycle, and has no real special significance (I figure 1828's obscure 3-day run Nov-Dec is just as valid as July 2006, or Feb 1779, but who knew it was hiding in the data? ... various other surprises were found in years like 1803).
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EWP update, was near 50 MM before yesterday's 7-10 MM likely addition, and 12z GFS looks to be adding 30 give or take, so it's staying in a range close to the 90 MM value for provisional scoring yet. (06z was closer to 95-100).
CET is likely to peak around 8.5 by Friday, after that I see a rather chilly trend, if it were to average 6 C for last eight days, the 8.5 would fall to 7.9.
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In this warm spell, one daily CET mean record (12.1 14th, replaces 11.5 1805), and two daily min records (9.4 14th and 9.7th 15) replacing records set in 1884 and 1957. No daily max records, those are now up around 17 C or higher.
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EWP already near 50 MM and likely to add 40 at least, so will stay at 90 MM for provisional scoring (already posted).
CET looks like a repeat of Feb's pattern of edging close to Mar record (9.2 1957) and falling back at end, but a colder trend at 12-16 days on GFS is never very reliable. More confident of a run towards 8.5 or even 9.0 in next ten days.
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Yes, it should be 2017 and not 2018 for list, and I edited details on the highest CET. I reviewed other data in table and didn't find any others needing work, hoping it's accurate now.
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I was reading online documents on CET site, and it looks like they will be pruning recent data on a regular basis, we may not actually be in the position we once thought in terms of no more revisions of posted data. We cannot be sure it will always look as it does now. But I do not see evidence of a desire to go way back and revise a lot of old data, perhaps I am missing a point.
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Well, as there were months well into the 18 range back then (July 1783 was 18.8), I don't know how much we could assume the 17.9 of 1779 was "really" 18.2 or 18.4, but the catch is that the data for CET before 1900 is generally west-London suburban in origin and would run a bit warmer than CET was then running (if it had been running) ... so perhaps the "modern conditions" and the shift in grid cancel out and it's a real 17.9?
I hope the proposed new data base isn't going to up the level of revision of the old data base but if it appears non-homogeneous then I suppose we have to accept it. I can't see how you would revise it region to region when differentials are not always the same from one setup to another. Could be a good opportunity to retire from this pursuit, my age is very suggestive of closing down the shop anyway. I suspect April 1775 and February 1779 could be getting shoved off the ship let's see if that's valid or not.
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I just visited CET download site and saw a new notice about yet another revision of CET data scheduled for release later this month. Who knows what we will be dealing with for a data base after that ... but using v2.0.1.0 for now ...
(and realizing Feb is shorter than March but taking an average of the two means)
... a lot of scorchers (but also 1903, 1961, 1998 etc) follow warmth in Feb-Mar ...
Warmest Feb-Mar couplets on record ... all cases of average 6.7 +
Rank ___ Year ___ FEB _ MAR ____ avg ______ warmest summer CET avg (graphical format)
_ 01 ____ 1779 ___ 7.9 __ 7.9 ____ 7.9 __________ 17.9 July
_ 02 ____ 1990 ___ 7.3 __ 8.3 ____ 7.8 __________18.0 Aug
_t03 ____1961 ___ 6.9 __ 8.2 ____ 7.55 __________________ 15.4 Aug
_t03 ____1997 ___ 6.7 __ 8.4 ____ 7.55 ______ 19.0 Aug
_t05 ____1945 ___ 7.1 __ 7.9 ____ 7.5 _____________ 16.7 July
_t05 ____1998 ___ 7.2 __ 7.8 ____ 7.5 _______________ 16.0 Aug
_t05 ____2017 ___ 6.2 __ 8.8 ____ 7.5 ____________16.9 July
_t08 ____1750 ___ 6.7 __ 8.2 ____ 7.45 ___________17.2 July
_t08 ____2022 ___ 6.9 __ 8.0 ____ 7.45 ______ 18.7 Aug (and extremes July)
_ 10 ____ 2019 ___ 6.9 __ 7.9 ____ 7.4 ___________ 17.6 July
_ 11 ____ 2002 ___ 7.0 __ 7.6 ____ 7.3 ____________ 17.0 Aug
_t12 ____1734 ___ 6.4 __ 8.1 ____ 7.25 ______________16.2 July & Aug
_t12 ____1957 ___ 5.3 __ 9.2 ____ 7.25 ______________16.3 July
_t14 ____1794 ___ 7.2 __ 7.0 ____ 7.1 __________18.1 July
_t14 ____1903 ___ 7.1 __ 7.1 ____ 7.1 __________________ 15.3 July
_t14 ____1938 ___ 5.1 __ 9.1 ____ 7.1 _______________16.3 Aug
_ 17 ____ 1822 ___ 6.3 __ 7.8 ____ 7.05 ___________17.1 June
_ 18 ____ 2014 ___ 6.3 __ 7.7 ____ 7.0 __________ 17.8 July
_ 19 ____ 1815 ___ 6.5 __ 7.3 ____ 6.9 __________________ 15.3 Aug
_t20 ____ 1872 ___ 6.9 __ 6.8 ____ 6.85 ___________17.1 July
_t20 ____ 2000 ___ 6.2 __ 7.5 ____ 6.85 ____________16.7 Aug
_t20 ____ 2011 ___ 6.5 __ 6.8 ____ 6.85 _________________15.5 Aug
_t23 ____ 1989 ___ 6.0 __ 7.5 ____ 6.75 ________18.1 July
_t23 ____ 2023 ___ 6.5 __ 7.0 ____ 6.75 ___________17.0 June, Sep
_ 25 ____ 1871 ___ 6.1 __ 7.3 ____ 6.7 ____________17.2 Aug
_t26 ____ 2007 ___ 6.0 __ 7.3 ____ 6.65 ________________ 15.5 Aug
_t26 ____ 2020 ___ 6.5 __ 6.8 ____ 6.65 __________17.7 Aug
(1920 avg 6.6, 14.4 June, a very poor summer; 1912 also avg 6.3)
also fitting pattern before 1930 ...
(1926 was 6.8, 6.3 (6.55) and _____________________ 17.1 July)
(1868 was 6.3, 6.8 (6.55) and ______________ 18.2 July)
(1859 was 5.7, 7.3 (6.5) and _______________ 18.3 July)
(1846 was 6.4, 6.1 (6.25) and ______________ 18.2 June)
(1826 was 6.4, 6.3 (6.35) and _______________17.9 July, also 19.5 late June-late July)
... 1869 was 7.5, 3.8, an exception to rule most mild Febs are followed by at least a mild-average march. (17.3 July)
Not all hot summers are preceded by warm Febs into march, for example 1747, 1783, 1808, 1947, 1975, 1976, 1979, 1955, 1983, 1995 (only Feb was mild), 2006, 2013 and 2018.
But it does seem like a loaded deck for summer warm spells, looking at list above. In cooler climate before 1900, trend is similar from a distribution perspective (mild Feb-mar back before 1900 often closer to 6.5).
1948 was near average in Feb (4.7) and mild in march (8.3), and avg was 6.5 ... summer generally cool except for 3-4 days of scorching heat at end of July.
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March 2024 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
If it was 8.2, you would be second in CET as Methuselah entered before you, but you would be solo "best combined" ...