Roger J Smith
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Posts posted by Roger J Smith
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Welcome back CET updates, so looking at 12z GFS the CET would increase quite rapidly to around 8.5 C at a peak on 21st and would then fall sharply for five or six days (average only around 4-5 C) to reach 7.6 by 27th.
EWP has not updated since 7th but two days were basically dry and yesterday around 8 mm additional so we're at about 27 mm now, the projection is quite wet, 80 mm more by 27th, would place us near 110 mm and once again above all but two of our forecasts (B87 at 110, DR(S)NO at 129 mm).
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Third day with no updates for CET, current estimate is 5.6 or 5.7 C for nine days. Today's average around 7.5 would see that increasing to about 5.9 or 6.0 C.
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Just noting 00z GFS is warmer (considerably) towards 18-25 march and would give a much higher outcome (around 7.5 or even 8 C).
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Once again no CET update today, current estimate is around 5.3 or 5.4 C (to 8th). GFS says we rise gradually to about 6.5 by around 16th or 17th then fall back into high 5 possibly as it turns quite chilly after that. EWP projections are now closer to 70 mm.
If we were 5.5 to 6.0 by 25th it would be likely a finish in the 6s as it would require an average of 11.1 C to get from 6.0 to 7.0 in the six days left.
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No CET update available today, would say it could be 5.2 C after a 6 C average yesterday.
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Don, if the GFS is anywhere close to accurate on trends, we will be nowhere near 7 C by 23rd, in fact we could be at or below 6.0, it looks relatively cool almost every day other than a few milder days around 15-18. If CET is 6.0 C on 23rd, even a warm 12 C last week would leave the outcome near 7.8, so it would need to turn near-record warm to avoid finishing lower.
EWP is around 19 mm to today, looks to add about 40 mm so a near average 60 mm by 23rd.
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You have perhaps noticed that the CET did not update today, no report for 5th on site; I estimate it at around 4.7 or 4.8 C now with yesterday probably a little above 7 C. Today won't move off that very far as the mins were lower and possibly below -1, the max likely 11 or 12. Keeping an eye on Feb data just in case any revisions creep in, none detected so far.
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Table value of 151.1 mm for February will only result in slight changes to scoring tables (average errors will be adjusted, points are not going to change). Revisions to Dec 2023 (now 161.5 and Jan 2024 97.0 have added 0.6 to winter EWP total, now at 409.6 mm, and 2023 total, now at 1194.0 mm; each one edges closer to a value just above them in tables but no change in ranks. Tables earlier in thread requiring edits will be adjusted.
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Combined scoring report CET and EWP (winter 2023-2024)
For a few forecasters only entering CET, "combined" rank is CET rank only and appears in a second column.
The number beside forecaster name indicates number of contests entered. This only appears if they entered 1 or 2.
Ranking in table is based on average of CET and EWP contest ranks (fourth col). Note only points totals are compared,
and CET points can be a lot higher than EWP points for 1/3 entrants (as part of points total based on averages).
RANK __ CET_EWP___ avg ___ FORECASTER _________________CET only _ FORECASTER
_ 01 _____05 _ 01 ____ 03.0 __ noname_weather
_ 02 _____03 _ 09 ____ 06.0 __ Feb1991blizzard
_ 03 _____11 _ 08 ____ 09.5 __ Don ___________________________ 09 __ Typhoon John
_ 04 _____01 _ 19 ____ 10.0 __ I remember Atlantic252
_ 05 _____06 _ 15 ____ 10.5 __ chilly milly
_ 06 _____10 _ 13 ____ 11.5 __ snowray
_ 07 _____t17 _07 ____ 12.0 __ Frigid
_t08 _____07 _ 21 ____ 14.0 __ dancerwithwings
_t08 _____16 _ 12 ____ 14.0 __ WYorksWeather
_t10 _____08 _ 22 ____ 15.0 __ Reef
_t10 _____27 _ 03 ____ 15.0 __ summer18
_ 12 _____21 _ 11 ____ 16.0 __ February1978
_ 13 _____33 _ 04 ____ 18.5 __ J 10
_ 14 _____15 _ 23 ____ 19.0 __Mr Maunder
_t15 _____04 _ 38 ____ 21.0 __ rwtwm
_t15 _____28 _ 14 ____ 21.0 __ Metwatch
_t17 _____26 _ 20 ____ 23.0 __ methuselah
_t17 _____41 _ 05 ____ 23.0 __ Weather26 _________________ 22 __ Summer Sun
_ 19 _____13 _ 34 ____ 23.5 __ davehsug
_ 20 _____20 _ 31 ____ 25.5 __ moorlander (2)
_ 21 _____23 _ 35 ____ 29.0 __ SteveB
_t22 _____14 _ 45 ____ 29.5 __ SLEETY (1)
_t22 _____30 _ 29 ____ 29.5 __ ScottD (2)
_ 24 _____36 _ 27 ____ 31.5 __ The PIT
_t25 _____12 _ 53 ____ 32.5 __ summer shower ___________ 32 __ Froze were the days (1)
_t25 _____49 _ 16 ____ 32.5 __ stewfox
_ 27 _____56 _ 10 ____ 33.0 __ DR(S)NO
_ 28 _____40 _ 28 ____ 34.0 __ summer blizzard
_ 29 _____45 _ 24 ____ 34.5 __ virtualsphere
_ 30 _____54 _ 17 ____ 35.5 __ Emmett Garland
_ 31 _____31 _ 42 ____ 36.5 __ summer8906 (2)
_t32 _____02 _ 72 ____ 37.0 __ syed2878
_t32 ____t17 _ 57 ____ 37.0 __ Weather Observer
_t32 _____72 _ 02 ____ 37.0 __ Jeff C
_ 35 _____24 _ 52 ____ 38.0 __ Matt Stoke (1)
_t36 _____38 _ 40 ____ 39.0 __ Addicks Fan 1981 (2)
_t36 _____39 _ 39 ____ 39.0 __ Somerset girl
_t38 _____29 _ 51 ____ 40.0 __ jmp223 (1)
_t38 _____47 _ 33 ____ 40.0 __ Roger J Smith
_t40 _____63 _ 18 ____ 40.5 ___jonboy
_t40_____75 _ 06 ____ 40.5 __ godber1
_ 42 _____60 _ 25 ____ 42.5 __ Polar Gael_____________________ 42 __ Mark Bayley
_ 43 _____50 _ 37 ____ 43.5 __ Midlands Ice Age
_ 44 _____25 _ 64 ____ 44.5 __ shillitocettwo
_ 45 _____46 _ 44 ____ 45.0 __ weatherforducks (2)
_ 46 _____19 _ 73 ____ 46.0 __ Wade (1)
_ 47 _____35 _ 58 ____ 46.5 __ Rob79812010 (1)
_ 48 _____53 _ 43 ____ 48.0 __ seaside60
_ 49 _____66 _ 32 ____ 49.0 __ Mulzy
_t50 _____43 _ 56 ____ 49.5 __ summer of 95 (1)
_t50 _____t51_ 48 ____ 49.5 __ Bobd29
_ 52 _____37 _ 63 ____ 50.0 __ snowblind (1)
_t53 _____34 _ 69 ____ 51.5 __ Norrance (2)
_t53 _____62 _ 41 ____ 51.5 __ daniel*
_ 55 _____54 _ 50 ____ 52.0 __ Leo97t
_ 56 _____79 _ 26 ____ 52.5 __ KirkcaldyWeather (2)
_t57 _____59 _ 47 ____ 53.0 __ Stationary Front
_t57 _____76 _ 30 ____ 53.0 __ Let It Snow! (1)
_ 59 _____48 _ 60 ____ 54.0 __ EastLancsRain
_t60 _____44 _ 66 ____ 55.0 __ Climate Man (1) ________________ 61 __ damianslaw
_t60 _____t51_ 59 ____ 55.0 __ Earthshine (2)
_t60 _____64 _ 46 ____ 55.0 __ Tillys (1)
_t60 _____65 _ 55 ____ 55.0 __ Shaunado (2)
_ 64 _____77 _ 36 ____ 56.5 __ prolongedSnowLover (now "It never snows in Windsor") (2)
_ 65 _____67 _ 49 ____ 58.0 __ John88b (2)
_ 66 _____57 _ 61 ____ 59.0 __ harveyslugger (1)
_ 67 _____68 _54 ____ 61.0 __ Wold Topper (1)
_ 68 _____58 _t67____ 62.5 __ catbrainz (1)
_ 69 _____73 _62 ____ 67.5 __ Alexis J9 (1)
_t70 _____69 _t67 ____68.0 __ gazse9 (1) ______________________ 70 __ Kentish Man
_t70 _____71 _65 ____ 68.0 __ sukayuonsensnow (1)
_ 72 _____74 _ 70 ____ 72.0 __ Neil N (2)
_ 73 _____78 _ 71 ____ 74.5 __ baddie (1)
(79 forecasters are ranked for CET, 73 for EWP and combined)
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Final EWP scoring report
(note: missed mo. error is consensus + 5 in italics _ it is 81.1 mm for Feb ... in contest year, a maximum of five missed mo's are acceptable before ranking discontinued)
Note _ ranks are also "winter 2023-24" ranks and will be preserved as such in next update.
Updated scoring for EWP DEC 2023 - FEB 2024 __ Annual and Winter Seasonal
_ based on 151.1 mm _
Ranks ___ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ Feb _TOTAL _______ Feb _ Avg
now_(Jan)_fcst (rank) _ FORECASTER __________EWP scoring (pts) __error__ avg 3mo (Ranks, now and (after Jan)
_01 _ 02 ___ 82.0 (19) __ noname_weather _____ 6.76__ 24.41 _____ 69.1 __ 36.20 mm _ 3 _ (1)
_02 _ 05 ___ 85.0 (15) __ Jeff C ( 8 ) ______________ 7.48 __ 23.39 ____ 66.1 __ 41.53 mm _ 8_ (9)
_03 _ 13 ___122.0 (04) __ summer18 ____________9.46 __ 23.22 _____29.1 __ 35.73 mm _ 2 _ (18.)
_04 _ 01 ___ 75.0 (31) __ J 10 ____________________ 4.84__ 22.63 _____ 76.1 __ 40.07 mm _ 6 _ (3)
_05 _ 10 ___ 88.0 (13) __ Weather26 ____________ 7.84 __ 22.13 _____ 63.1 __ 46.87 mm_ 16 _ (17)
_06 _ 07 ___ 82.0 (20) __ godber 1 _______________6.66 __ 22.00 _____ 69.1 __ 39.87 mm _ 5 _ (4)
(6.6) _(4.7)_ 75.0 (28) ____1994-2023 average ___ 5.14 __ 21.33 _____76.1 __ 44.50 mm _12.2_(8.9)
_07 _ 22 ___130.0 (02)__ Frigid ___________________9.82 __ 20.93 _____21.1 __ 29.87 mm _ 1_ (t10)
_08 _ 03 ___ 70.0 (35) __ Don ____________________ 3.83 __ 20.92 _____ 81.1 __ 40.53 mm _ 7 _(2)
_09 _ 06 ___ 78.0 (27) __ Feb1991blizzard _______ 5.32 __ 20.86 _____ 73.1 __ 41.87 mm _ 9_ (6)
_10 _ 09 ___ 80.0 (24) __ DR(S)NO ( 43 ) __________6.10 __ 20.78 _____ 71.1 __ 46.53 mm_ 15 _ (t10)
_11 _ 19 ___ 94.0 (08) __ February1978 __________8.74 __ 20.67 _____ 57.1 __ 43.53 mm_ 11 _ (14)
(11.4)( 5.4)__72.4 (33.4) __1991-2020 average __4.31 __20.09 _____ 78.7 __ 46.47 mm_ 14.9 _ (19.1)
_12 _ 04 ___ 60.0 (40) __ WYorksWeather _______ 2.92 __ 19.58 _____ 91.1 __ 47.93 mm _ 17 _ (7)
_13 _ 08 ___ 73.0 (32) __ snowray _______________ 4.42 __ 19.54 _____ 78.1 __ 44.37 mm _ 12 _ (8.)
_14 _ 28 ___105.0 (06) __Metwatch ______________9.10 __ 19.14 _____ 46.1 __ 45.20 mm_ 13_ (29)
_15 _ 26 ___ 92.0 (10) __ chilly milly ______________8.46 __ 18.85 _____59.1 __ 45.87 mm_ 14_ (19)
_16 _ 32 ___166.0 (01) __ stewfox ______________10.00 __ 18.79 _____14.9 __ 39.47 mm_ 4 _ (t43)
_17 _ 25 ___ 91.0 (12) __ Emmett Garland ________8.02 __ 18.49 _____ 60.1 __ 51.20 mm_ 23 _ (t33)
_18 _ 20 ___ 83.0 (18) __ jonboy __________________6.94 __ 18.22 _____ 68.1 __ 53.40 mm_ t26 _ (31)
(18.6)( 8.7)__ 66.5 (37) ___1981-2010 average ___3.48 __ 18.34 _____ 84.6 __ 50.90 mm _22.8_ (9.9)
_19 _ 30 ___ 92.0 (09)__I remember Atlantic252 __8.56 __18.12 _____ 59.1 __ 48.73 mm_ 18_ (27)
_20 _ 12 ___ 65.0 (38) __ methuselah _____________3.29 __ 17.47 _____ 86.1 __ 54.07 mm _ 28 _ (16)
_21 _ 24 ___ 80.0 (21) __ dancerwithwings ________6.40 __ 17.16 _____ 71.1 __ 58.20 mm_ 36 _ (t43)
(21.9)(22.4) _75.0 (28) ____ Consensus___________ 5.14 __ 16.22 _____ 76.1 __ 55.20 mm_30.5_(29)
_22 _ 18 ___ 72.0 (34) __ Reef ____________________ 4.05 __ 16.37 _____ 79.1 __ 54.07 mm_ 29 _ (22)
_23 _ 37 ___ 92.0 (11) __Mr Maunder ____________ 8.36 __ 16.17 _____ 59.1 __ 56.53 mm_ 33 _ (t50)
_24 _ 11 ___ 52.0 (48) __ virtualsphere ___________ 1.48 __ 15.72 _____ 99.1 __ 50.07 mm _ 22 _ (5)
_25 _ 34 ___ 84.0 (17) __ Polar Gael ______________ 7.12 __ 15.32 _____ 67.1 __ 55.60 mm _ 31 _ (39)
(25.9)(19.9)_65.5 (37.7) __average of all data ____ 3.34 __ 14.63 _____ 85.6 __ 57.80 mm_ 34.8 _ (27.8)
_26 _ 49 ___100.8 (06) __ KirkcaldyWeather ______8.92 ___14.22 _____50.3 __ 49.73 mm _19 _ (38)
_27 _ 16 ___ 50.0 (50) __ The PIT _________________ 1.12 __ 14.05 _____101.1 __ 61.53 mm_t48_ (t23)
_28 _ 21 ___ 59.0 (44) ___ summer blizzard ______ 2.28 __ 13,46 _____ 92.1 __ 61.87 mm_ 51 _ (t33)
_29 _ 35 ___ 79.0 (26) __ ScottD __________________ 5.50 __ 13.42 _____ 72.1 __ 52.73 mm _ 25_ (25)
_30 _ 14 ___ -- -- ( --- ) __ Let It Snow! _______________ --- __ 13.18 _____ (81.1)__ 49.87 mm_ t20_ (t10)
_31_ 15 ___ -- -- ( --- ) __ moorlander _______________ --- __ 13.13 _____(81.1)___ 51.87 mm_ 24 _ (15)
_32 _ 29 ___ 60.0 (41) __ Mulzy (L1-13) ____________2.82 __ 12.84 _____91.1 __ 61.20 mm_ t46 _ (32)
_33 _ 59 ___125.8 (03)__ Roger J Smith ___________ 9.64 __ 12.62 _____25.3 __ 54.27 mm_ 29 _ (63)
_34 _ 39 ___ 75.0 (30) __ davehsug _______________ 4.94 __ 12.30 _____ 76.1 __ 60.53 mm_ 43 _ (t47)
_35 _ 52 ___ 86.0 (14) __ SteveB __________________ 7.66 __ 12.18 _____ 65.1 __ 64.53 mm_ 58 _ (t58.)
_36 _ 17 ___ -- -- ( --- ) __ prolongedSnowLover _____ --- __ 12.30 _____(81.1)__ 49.87 mm_t20_ (t10)
_37_ 36 ___ 73.0 (33) __ Midlands Ice Age _________4.32 __ 12.23 _____ 78.1 __ 59.53 mm_ 41_(40)
_38 _ 27 ___ 51.0 (49) __ rwtwm ___________________1.30 __ 11.56 _____100.1 __ 62.20 mm_ 52 _ (26)
_39 _ 57 __ 85.0 (16) __ Somerset girl _____________ 7.40 __ 11.18 _____ 66.1 __ 64.87 mm_ 59 _ (t58.)
_40 _ 23 ___ -- -- ( --- ) __ Addicks Fan 1981 __________ --- __ 11.03 _____(81.1) __ 53.40 mm _t26_ (20)
_41 _ 41 ___ 65.0 (39) __ daniel* ___________________ 3.29 ___ 9.82 _____ 86.1 __ 66.53 mm_ 60 _ (53)
_42 _ 42 ___ 66.5 (37) __summer8906 ______________3.48 ___ 9.88 _____ 84.6 __ 58.53 mm_ 37 _ (30)
_43 _ 38 ___ 56.0 (45) __ seaside60 ________________ 2.02 ___ 9.63 _____ 95.1 __ 63.87 mm _t54 _ (37)
_44 _ 56 __ 80.0 (25) __ weatherforducks __________5.70 ___ 9.56 _____ 71.1 __ 58.87 mm_ 38 _ (t47)
_45 _(---) __121.0 (05) __ SLEETY ___________________ 9.28 ___ 9.28 ______30.1 __ 43.20 mm_ 10_ (---)
_46 _ 31 ___ --- --- (---) __ Tillys ________________________ --- ___ 9.14 ____ (81.1) __53.87 mm _ 28 _ (21)
_47 _ 55 ___ 75.0 (29) __ Stationary Front ( 51 ) _____5.04 ___ 8.95 _____ 76.1 __ 68.87 mm_ 61 _ (60)
_48 _ 45 ___ 59.6 (42) __ Bobd29 ____________________2.56 ___ 8.36 _____ 91.5 __ 69.33 mm _65 _ (31)
_49 _ 33 ___ --- --- (---) __ John88b ____________________ --- ___ 8.29 _____ (81.1) __ 61.53 mm_ t48 _ (t43)
_50 _ 63 ___ 80.0 (23) __ Leo97t _____________________6.20 ___ 7.81 _____ 71.1 __ 73.20 mm _ 67 _ (65)
_51 _ 40 ___ --- --- (--- __ jmp223 ______________________ --- ___ 7.08 _____ (81.1) __ 56.20 mm _32 _ (28 )
_52 _(---) __ 80.0 (22) __ Matt Stoke ________________ 6.30 ___ 6.30 _____ 71.1 __ 56.87 mm_ 34 _ (---)
_53 _ 43 ___ 40.0 (56) __ summer shower ___________0.00 ___ 6.25 _____111.1 __ 78.13 mm_ 70 _ (57)
_54 _ 44 ___ --- --- (---) __ Wold Topper ( ---) __________ -- -- ___ 6.18 _____(81.1) __ 54.87 mm _ 30_ (t23)
_55 _ 64 ___ 75.0 (28) __ Shaunado _________________ 5.14 ___ 5.64 _____ 76.1 __ 68.77 mm_ 64 _ (61)
_56 _ 46 ___ --- --- (---)__ summer of 95 ______________ -- -- ___ 5.60 _____(81.1) __59.07 mm_ 40 _ (36)
_57 _ 50 ___ 45.0 (53) __ Weather Observer ________ 0.58 ___ 5.58 _____106.1 __ 75.87 mm _ 69 _ (55)
_58 _ 47 ___ --- --- (---) __ Rob79812010 ______________ -- -- ___ 5.56 _____(81.1) __ 58.87 mm _ 39 _ (35)
_59 _ 48 ___ --- --- (---) __ Earthshine _________________ -- -- ___ 5.45 _____(81.1) __ 66.53 mm _ 62 _ (56)
_60 _ 51 ___ --- --- (---) __EastLancsRain ______________ -- -- ___ 4.88 _____(81.1) __ 60.73 mm_ 44_(41)
_61 _ 53 ___ --- --- (---) __harveyslugger ______________ -- -- ___ 4.34 _____(81.1) __ 61.53 mm_t49_(t43)
_62 _ 54 ___ --- --- (---) __ Alexis J9 ____________________ -- -- ___ 3.99 _____(81.1) __ 60.87 mm_ 45_(42)
_63 _(---) __ 67.0 (36) __ snowblind __________________ 3.67 ___ 3.67 _____ 84.1 __ 61.20 mm _ t46_ (---)
_64 _ 61 __ 49.0 (51) __shillitocettwo ________________0.94 ___ 3.34 _____102.1 __ 82.40 mm _71 _ (64)
_65 _ 58 __ --- --- (---) __sukayuonsensnow __________ -- -- ___ 3.30 _____ (81.1) __ 63.20 mm_ 53 _ (49)
_66 _ 60 __ --- --- (---) __ Climate Man ________________ -- -- ___ 2.90 _____ (81.1) __ 63.87 mm_t54_ (t50)
t67 _ 62 __ --- --- (--) ___gazse9 ( -- ) __________________ -- -- ___ 2.28 _____ (81.1) __ 63.87 mm_t54_ (t50)
t67 _(---) __ 59.0 (43) __ catbrainz ___________________ 2.28 ___ 2.28 _____ 92.1 __ 63.87 mm_ t54_ (---)
_69 _ 65 __ 55.0 (47) __ Norrance ___________________ 1.74 ___ 2.04 _____ 96.1 __ 75.53 mm_ 68 _ (62)
_70 _ 67 __ 55.0 (46) __ Neil N ______________________ 1.84 ___ 1.84 _____ 96.1 __ 85.87 mm_ 72 _ (66)
_71 _(---) __ 48.3 (52) __ baddie ______________________0.76 ___ 0.76 _____102.8 __ 67.43 mm_ 63_ (---)
_72 _ 66 __ 40.0 (55) __ syed2878 ___________________ 0.30 ___ 0.49 _____111.1 __ 93.20 mm_ 73 _ (67)
_73 _(---) __ 40.0 (54) __ Wade _______________________ 0.40 ___ 0.40 _____111.1 __ 86.20 mm_ 66 _ (---)
note: Ranks for normals and consensus are in decimal form, indicating where they are located relative to integer ranks of contest entrants.
Log of results (Jan report, for cross-reference to above)
_01 _ 08 ___100.0 (07) __ J 10 ( 54 ) __________________ 9.12_8.67__17.79 ____2.8_41.3__22.05 mm _ 3_ (8.)
_02 _ 04 ___ 90.0 (13) __ noname_weather ( 47 ) ____ 8.22_9.43__17.65 ___ 7.2_32.3__19.75 mm _ 1_ (4)
_03 _ 03 ___ 88.0 (17) __ Don ( 41 ) __________________ 7.47_9.62__17.09 ___ 9.2_31.3__20.25 mm _ 2 _(3)
_04 _ 11 ___103.6 (10) __ WYorksWeather ( 30 ) _____ 8.56_8.10__16.66 ___ 6.4_46.3__26.35 mm _ 7_ (11)
(4.7) _(17.6)_ 94.8 (5.2) ___ 1994-2023 average _____ 9.33_6.86__16.19 ___ 2.4_55.0__28.70 mm _9.1_(17.6)
_05 _ 14 ___ 90.0 (11) __ Jeff C ( 8 ) ___________________8.38_7.53 __15.91 ___ 7.2_51.3__29.25 mm _ 9_(t14)
(5.4)(19.1) __94.2 (5.8) ___1991-2020 average _______9.23_6.55__15.78____ 3.0_57.7__30.35 mm_ 9.3_ (19.1)
_06 _ 09 ____ 87.0 (19) __ Feb1991blizzard ( 37 ) ____ 7.06_8.48__ 15.54___10.2_42.3__26.25 mm _ 6_ (9)
_07 _ 06 ___ 84.0 (23) __ godber 1 (L1-12) ____________6.20^9.14__15.34 ___13.2_37.3__25.25 mm _ 4_ (t5)
_08 _ 07 ___ 82.0 (24) __ snowray ( 24 ) ______________ 6.26_8.86__15.12___ 15.2_39.8__27.50 mm _ 8_ (7)
(8.7)(22.4)__ 93.0 (7.5)____1981-2010 average ______ 8.96_5.90__14.86 ___ 4.2_63.9__34.05 mm _9.9_ (22.4)
_09 _ 20 ___ 90.0 (12) __ DR(S)NO ( 43 ) ______________ 8.30_6.38__14.68 ___ 7.2_61.3__34.25 mm_t10_ (20)
_10 _ 30 ___ 96.0 (02) __ Weather26 ( 9 ) _____________ 9.92_4.37__14.29 ___ 1.2_76.3__38.75 mm_ 17_ (30)
_11 _ 01 ___123.0 (37) __ virtualsphere ( 20 ) ________ 4.24_10.00_14.24 ___ 25.8_25.3__25.55 mm _ 5 _(1)
_12 _ 27 ___100.0 (06) __ methuselah (12.5) _________ 9.20_4.98__14.18 ___ 2.8_73.3__38.05 mm _16_ (t27)
_13 _ 28 ___102.0 (08) __ summer18 ( 21 ) ___________ 8.88_4.88__13.76 ___ 4.8_73.3__39.05 mm_ 18_ (t27)
_14 _ 19 ___ 86.0 (20) __ Let It Snow! (L1-7) ___________6.60^6.58__13.18 ___11.2_57.3__34.25 mm_t10_ (19)
_15 _ 24 ___ 88.0 (16) __ moorlander ( 34 ) ___________7.55_5.58__13.13____ 9.2_65.3__37.25 mm_ 15_ (24)
_16 _ 36 ___ 95.0 (04) __ The PIT ( 15 ) ________________9.52_3.41__12.93 ____2.2_81.3__41.75 mm_t23_ (t34)
_17 _ 05 ___ 66.0 (44) __ prolongedSnowLover ( 50 )__3.06_9.24__12.30 ___ 31.2_37.3__34.25 mm_t10_ (t5)
_18 _ 29 ___106.0 (15) __ Reef ( 39 ) __________________ 7.76_4.56__12.32____ 8.8_74.3__41.55 mm_ 22_ (29)
_19 _ 12 ___ 71.0 (38) __ February1978 ( 52 ) __________4.02_7.91__11.93___ 26.2_47.3__36.75 mm_ 14_ (12)
(19.9)(26.5)_ 81.6 (24.4)__average of all data (CET, EWP)_6.20_5.09_11.29___ 15.6_72.2__43.70 mm_27.8_(26.5)
_20 _ 43 ___ 99.0 (03) __ jonboy (L1-2) _________________9.38^1.90 _11.28 ____ 1.8_ 90.3__46.05 mm_ 31_ (43)
_21 _ 40 ___ 91.0 (9) ___ summer blizzard ( 27 ) _______8.71_2.47__11.18 ___ 6.2_87.3__46.75 mm_t33_ (40)
_22 _ 02 ___ 55.0 (55) __ Frigid ( 38 ) __________________ 1.30_9.81__11.11 ____42.2_26.3__34.25 mm_t10_ (2)
(22.4)(27)___ 81.0 (25) __ Consensus_________________ 6.10_4.98__11.08 ___ 16.2_73.3__44.75 mm_29.0_(t27)
_23 _ 15 ___125.0 (41) __Addicks Fan 1981 ( 29 ) _____ 3.60_7.43__11.03____27.8_51.3__39.55 mm _ 20_ (t14)
_24 _ 49 ___ 96.0 (01) __ dancerwithwings ( 3 ) ________10.00_0.76__10.76 ___ 1.2_102.3__51.75 mm_t43_(49)
_25 _ 33 ___ 84.0 (22) __ Emmett Garland ( 36 ) _______6.58_3.89__10.47 ___ 13.2_80.3__46.75 mm_t33_ (t32)
_26 _ 10 ___ 62.0 (50) __ chilly milly ( 4 ) _______________2.10_8.29__10.39 ___35.2_43.3__39.25 mm_ 19_ (10)
_27 _ 22 ___ 74.0 (35) __ rwtwm (L1-9) ________________ 4.28^5.98__10.26 ___ 23.2_63.3__43.25 mm_ 26_ (22)
_28 _ 25 ___ 74.0 (34) __ Metwatch ( 46 ) ______________ 4.66_5.38__10.04 ___ 23.2_66.3__ 44.75 mm_ 29_ (25)
_29 _ 26 ___ 76.0 (31) __ Mulzy (L1-13) ________________ 4.84^5.18__10.02 ___ 21.2_71.3__46.25 mm_ 32_ (26)
_30 _ 13 ___135.0 (52) __ I remember Atlantic252( 2 ) _ 1.84_7.72__ 9.56 ____37.8_49.3__43.55 mm_ 27_ (13)
_31 _ --- ___ 95.0 (05) __ Tillys ( L1-1 ) __________________ 9.14^ -- --_ 9.14 _____ 2.2_78.3__ 40.25 mm _21_ (---)
_32 _ 38 ___ 80.0 (26) __ stewfox ( 16 ) ________________ 5.94_2.85__8.79 ___ 17.2_86.3__51.75 mm_t43_(t38.)
_33 _ 34 ___ 75.0 (32) __ John88b (L1-3) _______________4.68^3.61__8.29 ___ 22.2_81.3__51.75 mm_t43_(t34)
_34 _ 23 ___ 62.3 (48) __ Polar Gael ( 18 ) _____________ 2.42_5.78__ 8.20 ___ 34.9_64.8__49.85 mm _39_(23)
_35 _ --- ___105.0 (14) __ ScottD ( 6 ) ___________________7.92 _ -- --_ 7.92 ____ 7.8_78.3__ 43.05 mm _ 25_ (---)
_36_ 18 ___ 53.0 (56) __ Midlands Ice Age ( 48 ) _______1.14_6.77__7.91 ___ 44.2_56.3__50.25 mm_ 40_(18.)
_37 _ 44 ___ 81.0 (25) __Mr Maunder ( 33 ) ___________ 6.10_1.71 __ 7.81 __ 16.2_94.3__55.25 mm_t50_(44)
_38 _ 16 ___ 52.0 (58) __ seaside60 (L1-10) ___________ 0.58^7.03^_7.61 ____45.2_51.3__48.25 mm _ 37_(t14)
_39 _ 17 ___ 45.0 (61) __ davehsug ( 45 ) _____________ 0.40_6.96__ 7.36 ____ 52.2_53.3__52.75 mm_t47_(17)
_40 _ --- ___ 88.0 (18) __ jmp223 (L1-5) _______________ 7.08^_-- --__ 7.08 ____ 9.2_78.3__ 43.75 mm _ 28_( --- )
_41 _ 39 ___ 70.0 (40) __ daniel* ( 42 ) ________________ 3.78_2.75__6.53 ____27.2_86.3__ 56.75 mm_ 53_(t38.)
_42 _ --- ___110.0 (21) __summer8906 ( 13 ) __________ 6.40 _ -- --_ 6.40 ____12.8_78.3__45.55 mm_ 30_ (---)
_43 _ 50 ___115.0 (28) __ summer shower ( 12 ) ______ 5.68_0.57__ 6.25 ___ 17.8_105.3_61.55 mm_ 57_(50)
_44 _ 21 ___ --- --- (---) __ Wold Topper ( ---) ___________ -- -- _6.18__ 6.18 ___ 21.2_62.3__41.75 mm _t23_ (21)
_45 _ 31 ___ 59.0 (53) __ Bobd29 ( 26 ) _______________ 1.62_4.18 __5.80 ___38.2_78.3__58.25 mm _54_(31)
_46 _ --- ___115.0 (29) __ summer of 95 ( 35 ) ________ 5.60_ -- -- __ 5.60 ____17.8_78.3__48.05 mm_ 36_(---)
_47 _ 35 ___ 60.0 (51) __ Earthshine ( 17 ) ____________ 1.94_3.51__ 5.45 ___37.2_81.3__59.25 mm _56_(t34)
_48 _ --- ___ 80.0 (27) ___Rob79812010 (L1-6) ________ 5.56 _-- --_ 5.52 ____17.2_78.3__47.75 mm _35_(---)
_49 _ --- ___ 76.6 (30) __KirkcaldyWeather ( 11 ) ______ 5.30 _-- --_ 5.30 ____20.6_78.3__49.45 mm _38_(---)
_50 _ 42 ___ 65.0 (46) __ Weather Observer ( 44 ) ____ 2.82_2.18__5.00 ___ 32.2_89.3__58.75 mm _55_(t41)
_51 _ --- ___120.0 (33) __EastLancsRain ( 1 ) __________ 4.88 _-- --__ 4.88 ____22.8_78.3__ 50.55 mm_ 41_( --- )
_52 _ 47 ___ 67.0 (42) __ SteveB ( 10 ) ________________ 3.38_1.14__4.52 ____30.2_98.3__64.25 mm_t58_(47)
_53 _ (---) __ 72.0 (36) __ harveyslugger ( 23 ) ________ 4.34_ ---- __ 4.34 ___ 25.2_ 78.3__51.75 mm_t43_(---)
_54 _ 32 ___ --- --- (---) __ Alexis J9 ( --- ) _______________ -- -- _3.99__3.99 ___ 21.2 _80.3__50.75 mm_ 42_(t32)
_55 _ 46 ___ 64.0 (47) __ Stationary Front ( 51 ) _____ 2.58_1.33__3.91 ___ 33.2_97.3__65.25 mm_ 60_(46)
_56 _ --- ___ 70.0 (39) __ weatherforducks ( 25 ) _____ 3.86_ -- --__ 3.86 ____27.2_78.3__52.75 mm_t47_(---)
_57_ 37 ___ 53.0 (57) __ Somerset girl (L1-11) _______ 0.76^3.04__3.80 ___ 44.2_84.3__64.25 mm_t58_(37)
_58 _ --- ___ 67.0 (43) __sukayuonsensnow ( 32 ) ____ 3.30 _-- --_ 3.30 ____ 30.2_78.3__54.25 mm_ 49_(---)
_59 _ 45 ___ 56.3 (54) __ Roger J Smith ( 5 ) __________ 1.46_1.52__2.98 ___ 40.9_96.6__68.75 mm_ 63_(45)
_60 _ --- ____ 65.0 (45) __ Climate Man ( 14 ) _________ 2.90_ --- __ 2.90 ___ 32.2_78.3__55.25 mm_t50_(---)
_61 _ 51 ___132.0 (49) __ shillitocettwo (L1-14) _______2.02^0.38__2.40 ___ 34.8_110.3_ 72.55 mm _64_(51)
_62 _ 41 ___ --- --- (--) ___gazse9 ( -- ) ________________ -- --_ 2.28 __ 2.28 ___ 21.2_89.3__55.25 mm_t50_(t41)
_63 _ 48 ___ 50.0 (59) __ Leo97t ( 26 ) _______________ 0.66_0.95__1.61 ___ 47.2_101.3_74.25 mm_ 65_(48.)
_64 _ --- ___ 45.3 (60) __ Shaunado ( 6 ) _____________ 0.50_--- ---_0.50 ____51.9_78.3__65.10 mm_ 61_(---)
_65 _ --- ___ 45.0 (62) __ Norrance ( 53 ) ____________ 0.30 _ -- --_0.30 ____52.2_78.3__65.25 mm_ 62_(---)
_66 _ 52 ___ 40.0 (63) __ syed2878 ( 19 ) ____________0.00_0.19__0.19 ____57.2_111.3_84.25 mm_ 67_(52)
_67 _ 53 ___ -- --- ( --- ) __ Neil N ( --- ) _______________---- 0.00 __ 0.00 ___ 21.2_140.3__80.75 mm_ 66_(53)
10.0 _ 95.1 __ Polar Gael (19) __________________129.0 __ DR(S)NO
9.3 _ --- --- __ BlueSkies_do_I_see (10) _________110.0 __ B87^^
8.4 _ 53.8 __ WYorksWeather (23) _____________104.0 __ virtualsphere
8.3 _ 94.0 __ Emmett Garland (37) _____________ 95.1 __ Polar Gael
8.2 _ 82.0 __ Methuselah ( 2 ) __________________ 95.0 __ syed2878
8.2 _ 94.0 __ Addicks Fan 1981 (38) ____________ 95.0 __ Stationary Front
8.1 _ --- --- __ Typhoon John ( 9 ) _______________ 95.0 __ Mr Maunder
8.0 _ 60.0 __ The PIT (22) _______________________95.0 __ SLEETY
7.9 _ 43.0 __ Summer Shower (24) _____________94.0 __ Emmett Garland
7.9 _ --- --- __ Mark Bayley (25) _________________94.0 __ Addicks Fan 1981
7.9 _ 95.0 __ Stationary Front (28) _____________ 94.0 __ SteveB^
7.9 _ 72.0 __ Don (41) __________________________ 91.6 __ Weather26
7.8 _ 81.0 __ feb1991blizzard (36) ______________90.0 __ Let It Snow!
7.8 _ 87.5 __ snowray (39) ______________________90.0 __ weatherforducks
7.8 _ 54.0 __ sunny_vale (L1-5) _________________90.0 __ Jeff C^
7.7 _ 77.0 __ dancerwithwings (13) _____________89.0 __ Midlands Ice Age
7.7 _ --- --- __ Summer Sun (29) _________________88.0 __ summer18
7.7 _ 95.0 __ Mr Maunder (32) _________________ 88.0 __ stewfox
7.6 _ 77.0 __ Reef (18) __________________________88.0 __ seaside60^
7.6 _ 85.0 __ J 10 (43) ___________________________87.5 __ snowray
7.5 _ 78.0 __ summer8906 ( 5 ) _________________85.0 __ J 10
7.5 _ --- --- __ Damianslaw (40) _________________ 82.0 __ Methuselah
7.4 _ 78.8 __ Roger J Smith (26) _________________82.0 __ rwtwm
7.4 _ 88.0 __ stewfox (L1-6) _____________________81.0 __ feb1991blizzard
7.3 _ 78.0 __ I Remember Atlantic252 (16) _____ 81.0 __ Wade^^
7.3 _ 74.0 __ summer blizzard (15) _____________78.8 __ Roger J Smith
7.3 _ 91.6 __ Weather26 (35) ___________________ 78.0 __ summer8906
7.2 _ 78.0 __ consensus _________________________ 78.0 __ consensus
7.2 _ 90.0 __ Let It Snow! ( 3 ) ___________________78.0 __ I Remember Atlantic252
7.2 _ 72.0 __ Frigid (21) _________________________ 77.0 __ dancerwithwings
7.2 _ 77.0 __ Mulzy (30) _________________________ 77.0 __ Reef
7.2 _ 89.0 __ Midlands Ice Age (33) ______________77.0 __ Mulzy
7.1 _ 66.0 __ shillitocettwo (11) _________________ 76.5 __ Metwatch
7.1 _ 67.0 __ Weather Observer (31) ____________74.0 __ summer blizzard
7.1 _ 88.0 __ seaside60 (L1-2) ___________________72.5 __ bobd
7.0 _ 90.0 __ weatherforducks (27) _____________ 72.0 __ Frigid
6.9 _ 72.5 __ bobd29 ( 1 ) _______________________ 72.0 __ Don
6.9 _129.0__ DR(S)NO (12) _____________________ 71.5 __ 1981-2010
6.9 _110.0__ B87 (L2-1) ________________________ 70.0 __ jonboy
6.8 _ 95.0 __ syed2878 (17) _____________________70.0 __ davehsug^
6.8 _ 68.0 __ February1978 (44) ________________ 68.0 __ February1978
6.7 _ 65.4 __ mean 1991-2020 __________________ 67.3 __ 1994-2023
6.7 _ 67.3 __ mean 1994-2023 __________________67.0 __ Weather Observer
6.7 _ 88.0 __ summer18 ( 6 ) ____________________66.0 __ shillitocettwo
6.7 _ 60.0 __ Leo97t ( 4 ) ________________________65.4 __ 1991-2020
6.7 _ 94.0 __ SteveB (L1-4) ______________________63.0 __ Godber 1
6.6 _ 71.5 __ mean 1981-2010 __________________ 61.6___1766-2023
6.6 _104.0__ virtualsphere ( 7 ) _________________60.0 __ Leo97t
6.6 _ 82.0 __ rwtwm (20) _______________________ 60.0 __ The PIT
6.5 _ 76.5 __ Metwatch (47) ____________________ 60.0 __ daniel*
6.4 _ 70.0 __ jonboy (14) _______________________ 55.0 __ Neil N
6.3 _ 63.0 __ Godber 1 (46) ____________________ 54.0 __ sunny_vale^
6.3 _ 70.0 __ davehsug (L1-3) _________________ 53.8 __ WYorksWeather
6.1 _ 55.0 __ Neil N ( 8 ) ________________________ 43.0 __ Summer Shower
6.0 _ 81.0 __ Wade (L2-2) _______________________ (six CET only)
5.4 _ 60.0 __ daniel* (45) _______________________
5.4 _ 61.6 __ mean 1766-2023 ________________
4.9 _ 95.0 __ SLEETY (34) _______________________
4.5 _ 90.0 __ Jeff C ( L1-1 ) ______________________
4.1 _ --- --- __ Kentish Man (42) _________________
_________________________
47 on time CET and 41 on time EWP forecasts, both added 8 late forecasts (so far)
total 55 CET, 49 EWP
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EWP opened with about 15 mm on first two days but will only rise slowly according to GFS, largely dry away from southwest England for next ten days, eventually about 25 mm additional by 19th to get a total of about 40 mm.
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Also, 2023-2024 was second wettest autumn - winter six month interval ...
Rank ___ YEARS ______ autumn __ winter _____ TOTAL _______ ranks (aut, win)
_01 _____ 2000-2001 __ 502.7 _____ 331.9 _____ 834.6 mm ___________ 1 ___20
_02 _____ 2023-2024 __ 395.7 _____ 409.6 _____ 805.3 mm ___________12 ___ 6
_03 _____ 2019-2020 __ 410.9 _____ 373.4 _____ 784.3 mm ___________ 5 ___13
_04 _____ 2013-2014 __ 298.6 _____ 455.5 _____ 754.1 mm ___________86 ___ 1
_05 _____ 1960-1961 __ 438.6 _____ 309.9 _____ 748.5 mm ___________ 3 ___38
_06 _____ 1876-1877 __ 324.3 _____ 418.3 _____ 742.6 mm ___________49 ___ 4
_07 _____ 1976-1977 __ 396.8 _____ 340.0 _____ 736.8 mm ___________11 ___16
_08 _____ 1852-1853 __ 455.8 _____ 267.4 _____ 723.2 mm ___________ 2 ___ 83
_09 _____ 1935-1936 __ 424.1 _____ 290.0 _____ 714.1 mm ___________ 4 ___ 50
_10 _____ 1994-1995 __ 297.5 _____ 415.6 _____ 713.1 mm ___________90 ___ 5
_11 _____ 1882-1883 __ 369.8 _____ 331.7 _____ 701.5 mm ___________25 ___21
_12 _____ 1872-1873 __ 394.3 _____ 298.7 _____ 693.0 mm ___________13 ___42
_13 _____ 1773-1774 __ 378.9 _____ 309.2 _____ 688.1 mm ___________18 ___39
_14 _____ 1993-1994 __ 290.0 _____ 388.3 _____ 678.3 mm ___________98 ___ 7
_15 _____ 1903-1904 __ 391.1 _____ 283.6 _____ 674.7 mm ___________14 ___57
_16 _____ 1929-1930 __ 343.8 _____ 330.2 _____ 674.0 mm ___________38 ___24
_17 _____ 2012-2013 __ 356.3 _____ 316.5 _____ 672.8 mm ___________31 ___35
_18 _____ 2020-2021 __ 288.1 _____ 384.1 _____ 672.2 mm ___________101 __ 8
_19 _____ 1768-1769 __ 398.7 _____ 259.4 _____ 658.1 mm ___________ 9 ___ 90
_20 _____ 1924-1925 __ 320.1 _____ 330.4 _____ 650.5 mm ___________54 ___24
_21 _____ 1914-1915 __ 226.9 _____ 423.0 _____ 649.9 mm __________194 ___ 2
_22 _____ 1965-1966 __ 286.4 _____ 363.0 _____ 649.4 mm __________102 ___14
_23 _____ 1918-1919 __ 324.9 _____ 323.9 _____ 648.8 mm ___________48 ___29
_24 _____ 1880-1881 __ 379.1 _____ 268.2 _____ 647.3 mm ___________17 ___81
_25 _____ 1927-1928 __ 326.7 _____ 320.1 _____ 646.8 mm ___________47 ___31
_26 _____ 2002-2003 __ 361.2 _____ 277.5 _____ 638.7 mm ___________29 ___61
_27 _____ 1938-1939 __ 315.1 _____ 318.9 _____ 634.0 mm ___________60 ___33
_28 _____ 2015-2016 __ 257.8 _____ 375.4 _____ 633.2 mm __________ 143___10
_29 _____ 2006-2007 __ 301.9 _____ 327.8 _____ 629.7 mm ___________79 ___27
_30 _____ 1839-1840 __ 358.4 _____ 270.2 _____ 628.6 mm ___________30___t77
_31 _____ 1989-1990 __ 207.3 _____ 420.9 _____ 628.2 mm __________217___ 3
_32 _____ 1868-1869 __ 247.2 _____ 380.6 _____ 627.8 mm __________160___ 9
_33 _____ 1827-1828 __ 310.3 _____ 314.8 _____ 625.1 mm ___________65 ___36
_33 _____ 1836-1837 __ 362.0 _____ 261.6 _____ 623.6 mm ___________28 ___88
_34 _____ 1998-1999 __ 345.8 _____ 276.0 _____ 621.8 mm ___________36 ___64
_34 _____ 1770-1771 __ 402.4 _____ 218.4 _____ 620.8 mm ____________6___145
_35 _____ 1954-1955 __ 378.1 _____ 239.1 _____ 617.2 mm ___________19___117
_36 _____ 1974-1975 __ 377.9 _____ 236.4 _____ 614.3 mm ___________20___120
(top ten autumn data not in above list because other season dry) ...
_xx ______ 1772-1773 __ 400.6 _____ 183.4 _____ 584.0 mm ____________ 7 ___205
_xx ______ 1875-1876 __ 399.1 _____ 192.3 _____ 591.4 mm ____________ 8 ___193
_xx ______ 1799-1800 __ 396.8 _____ 157.0 _____ 553.8 mm ___________10 ___231
__________________________
Note: ranks for EWP run 1 to 259. median 130.
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EWP tracker ends its soggy journey at 150.3 mm, provisionally fourth wettest February behind only 2020, 1833, and 1923.
Will make no changes to preliminary scoring posted a few days ago, until final value is posted on 5th.
2nd CET and 4th EWP would be the most extreme combined ranking for any month at the warm end, but August 1912 was wettest and coldest.
Winter 2023-2024 on this provisional value has a total now of 409.0 mm, ranking 6th behind only 2013-2014, 1914-1915, 1989-1990, 1876-1877, and 1994-1995. Rest of top ten below 2023-2024 now are 1993-1994, 2020-2021, 1868-1869, and 2015-2016. This winter almost doubled last winter (216.3 mm) and was well ahead of 2021-2022 (245.7 mm). 2019-2020 ranks 13th (now) with 1915-1916 and 1959-1960 in 12th and 11th. So we have seen five of top thirteen wet winters in past eleven.
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March CET 1981-2010 averages and 1772-2023 extremes
all data shown now converted to v2.0 _ 1909 lost two record low daily means (-2.9 4th and tied -2,.8 5th) and both of those were increased by almost a full degree in v2.0. 1875 lost a record high to 2014 on 7th with just a small drop from 10.9 to 10.7. On 18th, 1853 maintained a record low despite rising to -1.1 C, the value attained by 2018 in CET legacy, but it also warmed 0,.1 to -1.0, so continued to be a very close second lowest for that date. 1903 lost a record high to 1927 on 22nd, and 1886 replaced tied 1852, 1945 on 23rd. Otherwise, most of the records are the same for years, and within 0.2 for values in most cases. (v2.0 only began to change legacy values in 1853).
--------- (daily record means, 1772-2023) -- (1981-2010 avg) ------ (extreme running means) ---
DATE ___ MAX ____________ MIN ___________ CET date, cum ______ Running CET extreme values
01 Mar ... 10.9 (1878) ... ... -3.7 (2018.)... ... ... ... 5.0 ... ... 5.0 ... ... ... 10.9 (1878.) ... ...-3.7 (2018.)
02 Mar ... 11.1 (1777) ... ... -3.1 (1965) ... ... ... ... 4.7 ... ... 4.9 ... ... ... 10.2 (1878) ... ... -3.0 (2018.)
03 Mar ... 11.0 (1777) ... ... -3.8 (1965) ... ... ... ... 4.9 ... ... 4.9 ... ... ... 10.3 (1801) ... ... -2.0 (1965)
04 Mar ... 12.3 (1859) ... ... -2.8 (1845) ... ... ... ... 4.6 ... ... 4.8 ... ... ... 10.0 (1801,59) ...-1.9 (1965)
05 Mar ... 10.9 (1834) ... ... -2.8 (1786) ... ... ... ... 5.4 ... ... 4.9 ... ... ... 10.0 (1834) ... ... -1.5 (1947)
06 Mar ... 12.1 (1989) ... ... -4.7 (1786) ... ... ... ... 6.3 ... ... 5.2 ... ... .... 9.9 (1859) ... ... -1.7 (1786)
07 Mar ... 10.8 (2014) ... ... -3.3 (1947) ... ... ... ... 6.6 ... ... 5.4 ... ... .... 9.7 (1834) ... ... -1.7 (1786, 1947)
08 Mar ... 12.1 (2000) ... ... -3.1 (1786) ... ... ... ... 6.4 ... ... 5.5 ... ... .... 9.7 (1834) ... ... -1.9 (1786)
09 Mar ... 12.5 (1948) ... ... -2.6 (1917) ... ... ... ... 6.3 ... ... 5.6 ... ... .... 9.8 (1834) ... ... -1.8 (1786)
10 Mar ... 11.5 (1957) ... ... -2.1 (1883) ... ... ... ... 6.8 ... ... 5.7 ... ... .... 9.7 (1834) ... ... -1.6 (1786)11 Mar ... 12.6 (1957) ... ... -1.9 (1847) ... ... ... ... 6.6 ... ... 5.8 ... ... .... 9.5 (1834) ... ... -1.1 (1786)
12 Mar ... 13.4 (1957) ... ... -2.4 (1785) ... ... ... ... 6.0 ... ... 5.8 ... ... .... 9.4 (1834) ... ... -0.6 (1786, 1947)
13 Mar ... 12.8 (1991) ... ... -6.5 (1845) ... ... ... ... 6.3 ... ... 5.8 ... ... .... 9.2 (1957) ... ... -0.4 (1786, 1947)
14 Mar ... 11.5 (1805) ... ... -3.7 (1845) ... ... ... ... 6.6 ... ... 5.9 ... ... .... 9.1 (1957) ... ... -0.4 (1845)
15 Mar ... 12.0 (1884) ... ... -1.5 (1845,1867) ..... 7.0 ... ... 6.0 ... ... .... 9.3 (1957) ... ... -0.5 (1845)16 Mar ... 13.2 (2004) ... ... -3.0 (1845) ... ... ... ... 6.9 ... ... 6.0 ... ... .... 9.4 (1957) ... ... -0.6 (1845)
17 Mar ... 13.1 (2005) ... ... -2.2 (1845) ... ... ... ... 7.5 ... ... 6.1 ... ... .... 9.5 (1957)^...... -0.7 (1845)
18 Mar ... 14.1 (1990) ... ... -1.1 (1853) ... ... ... ... 7.1 ... ... 6.2 ... ... .... 9.5 (1957) ... ... -0.6 (1845)
19 Mar ... 11.8 (1822) ... ... -0.9 (1814) ... ... ... ... 6.6 ... ... 6.2 ... ... .... 9.5 (1957) ... ... -0.5 (1845)
20 Mar ... 12.3 (1779) ... ... -1.6 (1845) ... ... ... ... 6.6 ... ... 6.2 ... ... .... 9.5 (1957) ... ... -0.6 (1845)
21 Mar ... 11.7 (1927,31,2002).-1.6 (1899) .... . .. 6.6 ... ... 6.2 ... ... .... 9.4 (1957) ... ... -0.4 (1845)
22 Mar ... 12.2 (1927) ... ... .-0.9 (1837) ... ... ... ... 6.9 ... ... 6.3 ... ... .... 9.4 (1957) ... ... -0.1 (1845)
23 Mar ... 12.4 (1886) ... ... .-0.8 (1837) ... ... ... ... 6.9 ... ... 6.3 ... ... .... 9.4 (1957) ... ... +0.2 (1845)
24 Mar ... 13.4 (1776) ... ... .-0.6 (1879) ... ... ... ... 7.4 ... ... 6.3 ... ... .... 9.4 (1957) ... ... +0.4 (1845)
25 Mar ... 13.9 (1777) ... ... .-1.1 (1853) ... ... ... ... 7.3 ... ... 6.4 ... ... .... 9.2 (1957) ... ... +0.7 (1845)
26 Mar ... 14.6 (1777) ... ... .-0.3 (1879) ... ... ... ... 7.2 ... ... 6.4 ... ... .... 9.3 (1957) ... ... +1.0 (1845)27 Mar ... 14.8 (1777) ... ... -0.1 (1901) ... ... ... ...7.1 ... ... 6.4 ... ... .... 9.2 (1957) ... ... +1.3 (1785, 1845)
28 Mar ... 12.6 (1822) ... ... -0.3 (1785) ... ... ... ... 7.2 ... ... 6.5 ... ... .... 9.3 (1957) ... ... +1.3 (1785)
29 Mar ... 13.4 (1813) ... ... -0.7 (1785) ... ... ... ... 7.2 ... ... 6.6 ... ... .... 9.3 (1957) ... ... +1.2 (1785)
30 Mar ... 15.2 (2017) ..... ... 0.0 (1799) ... ... ... ... 7.6 ... ... 6.6 ... ... .... 9.2 (1957) ... ... +1.2 (1785)31 Mar ... 14.4 (2021) ... ... .-0.8 (1799) ... ... ... ... 8.0 ... ... 6.6 ... ... .... 9.2 (1957) ... ... +1.2 (1785)**
________________________________________________________________________
^ 1961 had reached its highest point, 9.3 on the 17th.
** 1674 had a mean CET of 1.0 so was colder here and possibly on earlier dates in the month too.
________________________________________________________________________
1991-2020 daily and running CET values
1 ____ 5.0 __ 5.0 _____ 6 ___ 6.1 __ 5.2 ______ 11 ___ 6.8 __ 5.9 ______ 16 ___ 7.8 __ 6.3 ______ 21 ___ 6.8 __ 6.4 ______ 26 ___ 7.2 __ 6.6
2 ____ 4.9 __ 5.0 _____ 7 ___ 6.6 __ 5.4 ______ 12 ___ 6.4 __ 5.9 ______ 17 ___ 7.7 __ 6.4 ______ 22 ___ 7.0 __ 6.5 ______ 27 ___ 7.0 __ 6.6
3 ____ 5.0 __ 5.0 _____ 8 ___ 6.7 __ 5.5 ______ 13 ___ 6.7 __ 6.0 ______ 18 ___ 6.9 __ 6.4 ______ 23 ___ 7.0 __ 6.5 ______ 28 ___ 7.4 __ 6.6
4 ____ 4.8 __ 4.9 _____ 9 ___ 6.7 __ 5.6 ______ 14 ___ 6.8 __ 6.1 ______ 19 ___ 6.7 __ 6.4 ______ 24 ___ 7.3 __ 6.5 ______ 29 ___ 7.4 __ 6.7
5 ____ 5.2 __ 5.0_____10 ___ 7.0 __ 5.8 ______ 15 ___ 7.5 __ 6.2 ______ 20 ___ 7.1 __ 6.4 ______ 25 ___ 7.5 __ 6.6 ______ 30 ___ 8.0 __ 6.7
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________31 ___ 8.4 __ 6.747
____________________________________________________ _______________________________________________ _______________________________
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Another factor that needs to be considered, as I understand it from various links in current discussion, in 1779 CET values are from a single location near London, albeit a London with very little heat island. Now it depends on specific synoptics but quite often London averages nowadays are 1-2 C above CET, not all of it due to urban effect. There would be cold months with s.e. wind flow turning out colder in 18th century London than 18th century central England too, 1779 would not likely be one.
Also, CET in this period drops 0.2 for urban effects, so before that adjustment, 2024 was 8.0 not 7.8. If this was a month where the urban effect was not as great as average (clear skies and cold air masses have largest urban heat island effects, 2024 had little of that sort of weather) then it is another reason to say 1779 and 2024 are probably virtually tied.
Now it could be that I missed some details about adjustments of London values to overlap with later grids of stations located further n and w.
To the point in the previous post, a 31-day interval ending 20 and also 21 Feb averaged 8.3 so that is probably a real indicator of a potential February average of around 8.5 (both shorter and later being factors). It will not surprise this observer if we see an 8.5 February sooner or later. I also think march could go to 9.5 or even 10.0, 1957 was not piling on heat near the end and fell back from around 9.5.
Just as a guess, I would expect CET record values by 2050 to be around
8.0 _ 8.5 _ 10.0 _ 12.5 _ 15.1 _ 18.5 _ 20.2 _ 20.0 _ 17.5 _ 14.5 _ 11.0 _ 9.6 ___ 11.8 annual
you can see I believe 1833 and 2015 will hold on and the other ten will be broken.
I would expect a 14.2 to 14.5 may and a 9.0 Dec in the next 25 years, not records but new second place values.
If there is a net-weather in 2050 they can have a laugh at old RJS at that point. (I would be 101 and not likely caring).
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The 1961-1990 average CET is 5.7. Oddly the two warmest years were 1961 (8.2) and 1990 (8.3). The 28 years in between had an average of only 5.5 C. The third highest was 1981 at 7.8.
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1779 is apparently still on the couch ... a 7.5 (report) for 29 Feb leaves 2024 0.1 short at 7.8.
... (not a prediction, a report) ...
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EWP tracker will finish near 148 mm, will wait for table value on 5th to determine winner (Frigid 130 mm, stewfox 166 mm).
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Table of forecasts for March 2024
After spring cleaning, a new look for the table. EWP in order now in vertical drop down listing in col 2.
CET _ EWP _ FORECASTER (order of entry) _____EWP (^ late 1day __ ^^ late 2d)
10.0 _ 95.1 __ Polar Gael (19) __________________129.0 __ DR(S)NO
9.3 _ --- --- __ BlueSkies_do_I_see (10) _________110.0 __ B87^^
8.4 _ 53.8 __ WYorksWeather (23) _____________104.0 __ virtualsphere
8.3 _ 94.0 __ Emmett Garland (37) _____________ 95.1 __ Polar Gael
8.2 _ 82.0 __ Methuselah ( 2 ) __________________ 95.0 __ syed2878
8.2 _ 94.0 __ Addicks Fan 1981 (38) ____________ 95.0 __ Stationary Front
8.1 _ --- --- __ Typhoon John ( 9 ) _______________ 95.0 __ Mr Maunder
8.0 _ 60.0 __ The PIT (22) _______________________95.0 __ SLEETY
7.9 _ 43.0 __ Summer Shower (24) _____________94.0 __ Emmett Garland
7.9 _ --- --- __ Mark Bayley (25) _________________94.0 __ Addicks Fan 1981
7.9 _ 95.0 __ Stationary Front (28) _____________ 94.0 __ SteveB^
7.9 _ 72.0 __ Don (41) __________________________ 91.6 __ Weather26
7.8 _ 81.0 __ feb1991blizzard (36) ______________90.0 __ Let It Snow!
7.8 _ 87.5 __ snowray (39) ______________________90.0 __ weatherforducks
7.8 _ 54.0 __ sunny_vale (L1-5) _________________90.0 __ Jeff C^
7.7 _ 77.0 __ dancerwithwings (13) _____________89.0 __ Midlands Ice Age
7.7 _ --- --- __ Summer Sun (29) _________________88.0 __ summer18
7.7 _ 95.0 __ Mr Maunder (32) _________________ 88.0 __ stewfox
7.6 _ 77.0 __ Reef (18) __________________________88.0 __ seaside60^
7.6 _ 85.0 __ J 10 (43) ___________________________87.5 __ snowray
7.5 _ 78.0 __ summer8906 ( 5 ) _________________85.0 __ J 10
7.5 _ --- --- __ Damianslaw (40) _________________ 82.0 __ Methuselah
7.4 _ 78.8 __ Roger J Smith (26) _________________82.0 __ rwtwm
7.4 _ 88.0 __ stewfox (L1-6) _____________________81.0 __ feb1991blizzard
7.3 _ 78.0 __ I Remember Atlantic252 (16) _____ 81.0 __ Wade^^
7.3 _ 74.0 __ summer blizzard (15) _____________78.8 __ Roger J Smith
7.3 _ 91.6 __ Weather26 (35) ___________________ 78.0 __ summer8906
7.2 _ 78.0 __ consensus _________________________ 78.0 __ consensus
7.2 _ 90.0 __ Let It Snow! ( 3 ) ___________________78.0 __ I Remember Atlantic252
7.2 _ 72.0 __ Frigid (21) _________________________ 77.0 __ dancerwithwings
7.2 _ 77.0 __ Mulzy (30) _________________________ 77.0 __ Reef
7.2 _ 89.0 __ Midlands Ice Age (33) ______________77.0 __ Mulzy
7.1 _ 66.0 __ shillitocettwo (11) _________________ 76.5 __ Metwatch
7.1 _ 67.0 __ Weather Observer (31) ____________74.0 __ summer blizzard
7.1 _ 88.0 __ seaside60 (L1-2) ___________________72.5 __ bobd
7.0 _ 90.0 __ weatherforducks (27) _____________ 72.0 __ Frigid
6.9 _ 72.5 __ bobd29 ( 1 ) _______________________ 72.0 __ Don
6.9 _129.0__ DR(S)NO (12) _____________________ 71.5 __ 1981-2010
6.9 _110.0__ B87 (L2-1) ________________________ 70.0 __ jonboy
6.8 _ 95.0 __ syed2878 (17) _____________________70.0 __ davehsug^
6.8 _ 68.0 __ February1978 (44) ________________ 68.0 __ February1978
6.7 _ 65.4 __ mean 1991-2020 __________________ 67.3 __ 1994-2023
6.7 _ 67.3 __ mean 1994-2023 __________________67.0 __ Weather Observer
6.7 _ 88.0 __ summer18 ( 6 ) ____________________66.0 __ shillitocettwo
6.7 _ 60.0 __ Leo97t ( 4 ) ________________________65.4 __ 1991-2020
6.7 _ 94.0 __ SteveB (L1-4) ______________________63.0 __ Godber 1
6.6 _ 71.5 __ mean 1981-2010 __________________ 61.6___1766-2023
6.6 _104.0__ virtualsphere ( 7 ) _________________60.0 __ Leo97t
6.6 _ 82.0 __ rwtwm (20) _______________________ 60.0 __ The PIT
6.5 _ 76.5 __ Metwatch (47) ____________________ 60.0 __ daniel*
6.4 _ 70.0 __ jonboy (14) _______________________ 55.0 __ Neil N
6.3 _ 63.0 __ Godber 1 (46) ____________________ 54.0 __ sunny_vale^
6.3 _ 70.0 __ davehsug (L1-3) _________________ 53.8 __ WYorksWeather
6.1 _ 55.0 __ Neil N ( 8 ) ________________________ 43.0 __ Summer Shower
6.0 _ 81.0 __ Wade (L2-2) _______________________ (six CET only)
5.4 _ 60.0 __ daniel* (45) _______________________
5.4 _ 61.6 __ mean 1766-2023 ________________
4.9 _ 95.0 __ SLEETY (34) _______________________
4.5 _ 90.0 __ Jeff C ( L1-1 ) ______________________
4.1 _ --- --- __ Kentish Man (42) _________________
_________________________
47 on time CET and 41 on time EWP forecasts, both added 8 late forecasts (so far)
total 55 CET, 49 EWP
Late forecasts will be added to end of 3 Mar, EWP forecast column will be placed in order after all forecasts are in.
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7.4 CET and 78.8 EWP.
A bit cold to start, higher values later, not a dry trend but could be close to average.
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"In terms of where we're at, we're at 7.833C. The record is 7.871C."
Just wondering, do you calculate by simple arithmetic of numbers in "mean CET" table or do you look at an overall average of CET max and min values? I came to the opinion that CET tables are based on some kind of calculation of (mean max + mean min) / 2 whereas anything I ever post about CET is done by the simple arithmetic method. I also wonder if they adjust for any rounded daily means (cases with an odd and even digit in play e.g. 7.0 and 1.3). What blunts that problem for CET is a system where they don't round all of these upwards, some are rounded downwards. They could cancel out.
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"For crying out loud. I’ve tried to explain, to no avail, that in the past readings were taken just once a day, at 0900. Therefore the readings taken were the max and min over the past 24 hours, no attempt being made to allocate them to 2 x 12 hours, as that would be based on assumptions, not fact. Some sites still use this convention, so all must."
So therefore you must believe that this 0900 reading of max goes back to previous calendar day in records (as one obvious example the super hot day 19th July 2022 was presumably recorded at 0900h 20 July although I believe it was already observed at the various sites at 2100h of 19th), and the min recorded at 0900h stays with same calendar day for min. But I believe that CET data (and possibly various stations on 0900 system) are at least reviewed by an observer at 2100 and if temps have been falling between 0900 and 2100 a new daily min can (and certainly should) be recorded. Let's see what happens on 29 Feb, I believe the min observed to 0900 on 29 Feb will be considerably higher than the min observed by 2100h because temps are likely to fall steadily during day and early evening of 29 Feb. What they note in tables as min for 29 Feb could answer this question.
Also, I wonder if an actual stakeholder in CET can confirm what happens. If anyone with past success at having e-mails answered wants to give it a go ...
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Perhaps the confusion about where they found -0.7 C for a daily in for 27 Feb can be explained by the supporting paper not explaining procedure, I suspect it is actually as follows: readings are taken at 9 a.m. and 9 p.m. of extremes, the lowest value to 0900h of date (in this case 27 Feb) begins at 9 p.m. the previous day (26 Feb) and the value is then checked at 9 p.m. (in case 27 Feb) for the unlikely possibility that a lower value has occurred after 9 a.m., which could happen if colder air arrived after 0900h. If not lower then the first of the two obs determines the daily min. The procedure for max is the opposite, a reading is taken at 9 p.m. which captures a max on most days, then the next one at 0900h following day captures overnight rises in temperature that are applied to the previous calendar day.
Just from observing dates of low mins in real time, especially in warmer months with shorter nights, you would always see the lowest values on the day before they actually occurred if the min observation period was 0900h to 0900h, and not on the day that they did occur (around 0400 to 0600h on a summer morning and about 0700 or 0800 even in winter, more frequently than at 0900). In any case I think the daily mins are taken from a period that is staggered 12h (earlier) relative to the interval of the daily max.
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Combined CET and EWP contest scoring for Feb 2024
_ based on 7.8 C (confirmed) and 150 mm _
___ to be adjusted as final values are confirmed ...
Ranks _ CET _ EWP _ Forecaster (Order of entry) ___ combined ranks, order (top 25)
01 _ 55 _ 8.1 __ 40.0 _ syed2878 ( 25 ) _______________ 56 ___t24th best combined
02 _ 05 _ 7.4 _ 121.0 _ SLEETY ( 23 ) __________________06 ____ best combined
03 _ 09 _ 7.3 __ 92.0 _ IRememberAtlantic252 ( 2 ) ___12 ____ 5th best combined
04 _ 54 _ 7.3 __ 40.0 _ Wade ( 10 ) ____________________58
05 _ 22 _ 7.2 __ 80.0 _ matt stoke ( 22 ) _______________27 ___ 9th best combined
06 _ 03 _ 7.2 _ 125.8 _ Roger J Smith ( 51 ) ____________09 ___ 2nd best combined
07 _ 04 _ 7.1 _ 122.0 _ Summer18 ( 18 ) ______________ 11 ___ 4th best combined
08 _ 17 _ 7.0 __ 84.0 _ Polar Gael ( 8 ) _________________25 ___ 8th best combined
09 _ 01 _ 6.9 _ 166.0 _ stewfox ( 13 ) __________________ 10 ___3rd best combined
10 _ 49 _ 6.9 __ 51.0 _ rwtwm ( 24 ) ___________________ 59
11 _ 12 _ 6.8 __ 91.0 _ Emmett Garland (21) __________ 23 ___ 7th best combined
12 _ 36 _ 6.7 __ 67.0 _ snowblind ( 14 ) ________________48 ___t20th best combined
13 _ 40 _ 6.7 __ 60.0 _ WYorksWeather ( 33 ) __________53 ___ 23rd best combined
14 _ 53 _ 6.7 __ 45.0 _ Weather Observer ( 48 ) _______ 67
15 _ 02 _ 6.6 _ 130.0 _ Frigid ( 6 ) ______________________17 ___ 6th best combined
16 _ 51 _ 9.0 __ 49.0 _ Shillitocettwo ( 11 ) ____________ 67
17 _ 27 _ 6.5 __ 78.0 _ Feb1991Blizzard ( 44 ) _________ 44 ___t11th best combined
18 _ 32 _ 6.2 __ 73.0 _ snowray ( 4 ) ___________________ 50 ___22nd best combined
19 _ 14 _ 6.2 __ 86.0 _ Steve B ( 12 ) ___________________ 33 ___10th best combined
20 _ 38 _ 6.2 __ 65.0 _ methuselah ( 16 ) _______________58
21 _ 26 _ 6.2 __ 79.0 _ ScottD ( 17 ) ____________________ 47 ___t18th best combined
22 _ 23 _ 6.1 __ 80.0 _ Leo97t ( 27 ) ____________________ 45 ___t14th best combined
23 _ 33 _ 6.0 __ 73.0 _ Midlands Ice Age ( 34 ) __________56 ___t24th best combined
24 _ 34 _ 5.9 __ 72.0 _ Reef ( 32 ) _______________________58
25 _ 21 _ 5.9 __ 80.0 _ dancerwithwings ( 43, 2.5 ) _____46 ___t16th best combined
26 _ --- _ 5.8 __ --- --- _ Summer Sun ( 28 ) ______________
27 _ 56 _ 5.8 __ 33.0 _ Summer Shower ( 42 ) __________83
28 _ 43 _ 5.7 __ 59.0 _ catbrainz ( 31 ) __________________71
29 _ 29 _ 5.7 __ 75.0 _ Stationary Front ( 46 ) __________ 58
30 _ 16 _ 5.7 __ 85.0 _ Somerset Girl ( 55 ) _____________ 46 ___t16th best combined
31 _ --- _ 5.7 __ --- --- _Mark Bayley ( 60 ) ________________
(28)(28)_5.7 __ 75.0 _ Consensus ________________________56 (t24)
32 _ 13 _ 5.6 __ 88.0 _ Weather26 ( 5 ) _________________ 45 ___t14th best combined
33 _ 11 _ 5.6 __ 92.0 _ Mr Maunder ( 36 ) ______________ 44 ___t11th best combined
34 _ 50 _ 5.5 __ 50.0 _ The PIT ( 20 ) ____________________84
35 _ 24 _ 5.5 __ 80.0 _ DR(S)NO ( 30 ) ___________________59
36 _ 25 _ 5.5 __ 80.0 _ weatherforducks (L1-1) _________ 61
37 _ 10 _ 5.4 __ 92.0 _ chilly milly ( 19 ) _________________47 ___t18th best combined
38 _ 37 _ 5.4 __ 66.5 _ summer8906 ( 37 ) ______________75
39 _ 06 _ 5.4 _ 105.0 _ Metwatch ( 53 ) _________________ 45 ___t13th best combined
40 _ 08 _ 5.3 __ 94.0 _ February1978 ( 57 ) _____________ 48 ___t20th best combined
(41)(28)_ 5.2 _ 75.0 _ 1994-2023 average _______________69
41 _ 30 _ 5.2 _ 75.0 _ davehsug ( 53 ) ___________________ 71
42 _ 31 _ 5.2 _ 75.0 _ J10 ( 57 ) __________________________ 73
43 _ 44 _ 5.1 _ 59.0 _ summer blizzard ( 55 ) ____________87
(44)(34)_ 5.0 _ 72.4 _ 1991-2020 average _______________78
44 _ 47 _ 5.0 __ 55.0 _ Norrance ( 45 ) __________________ 91
45 _ --- _ 5.0 __ --- --- _ damianslaw ( 47 ) _______________
46 _ 19 _ 4.9 __ 82.0 _ noname_weather ( 52 ) _________ 65
47 _ 35 _ 4.8 __ 70.0 _ Don ( 50 ) ________________________82
48 _ 42 _ 4.7 __ 59.6 _ Bobd29 ( 1 ) _____________________ 90
49 _ --- _ 4.7 __ --- --- _ Typhoon John ( 3 ) _______________
50 _ 45 _ 4.7 __ 56.0 _ seaside60 ( 26 ) __________________95
51 _ 48 _ 4.6 __ 52.0 _ virtualsphere ( 15 ) ______________ 99
52 _ 28 _ 4.6 __ 75.0 _ Shaunado ( 41 ) __________________80
(53)(37)_ 4.4 __ 66.5 _ 1981-2010 average ______________90
53 _ 41 _ 4.4 __ 60.0 _ mulzy ( 38 ) ______________________ 94
54 _ 18 _ 4.0 __ 83.0 _ jonboy ( 29 ) ______________________72
(55)(38) _ 3.9 __65.5 _ average of all data _______________ 93
55 _ 39 _ 3.9 __ 65.0 _ daniel* ( 39 ) _____________________ 94
56 _ 46 _ 3.8 __ 55.0 _ Neil N ( 40 ) ______________________ 102
57 _ 52 _ 3.4 __ 48.3 _ baddie (using 2013) ( 7 ) _________ 109
58 _ --- _ 3.3 __ --- --- _ Kentish Man (49) _________________
59 _ 15 _ 3.2 __ 85.0 _ Jeff C ( 9 ) _________________________ 74
60 _ 20 _ 2.8 __ 82.0 _ Godber 1 ( 59 ) ____________________80
61 _ 07 _ 2.3 _ 100.8 _ Kirkcaldy Weather ( 35 ) __________ 68
60 on time forecasts, and one late by one day, 61 total __ consensus (median) 5.7
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EWP forecasts in order
166_stew .. 130_Frig .. 125.8_RJS .. 122_sum18 ... 121_SLE .. 105_Met .. 100.8_KW ..
94_Feb78 .. 92_IRem, cm, MrM .. 91_EG .. 88_wx26 .. 86_Ste .. 85_Jeff, sg .. 84_PG .. 83_jon ..
82_non, godb .. 80_dww, matt, leo, DR(S), ducks^ .. 79_ScottD .. 78_Feb91 .. 75_Shaun, SF, dave, J10
75.0_94-23 .. 73_snowray, MIA .. 72.4_91-20 .. 72_Reef .. 70_Don .. 67_snowblind ..
66.5_sum8906 .. 66.5_81-10 .. 65.5_alldata .. 65..meth, dan* ..
60_WYork, mul .. 59.6_bob .. 59_cat, sb .. 56_sea .. 55_NN, Norr .. 52_virt ..
51_rwtwm .. 50_PIT .. 49_Shil .. 48.3_bad ... 45_WxOb .. 40_Wade, syed .. 33_SumSh
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March 2024 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted · Edited by Roger J Smith
EWP scoring (result is 111.5 mm)
In table below, first rank is current contest rank, second rank was rank for winter season (results after Feb).
Same logic applies at end of row to average error ranks. Everyone participating so far is given "consensus + 5 mm" errors for months they do not enter. In this case, consensus+5 is 33.5+5 = 38.5.
Also in your scoring line, your forecast is followed by a rank based on result of 111.5 mm. This rank is your scoring level before late penalties. As you may already know, late forecasts are docked 0.30 points per late day (indicated in table below by ^ symbol). Identical forecasts are scored one-half scoring interval lower for each, so if you're in rank seven but identical forecast to rank six, your scoring level is actually 6.5 not 7 (etc for 3+ duplicates). Otherwise with 49 forecasts the scoring interval is 0.20 (10.00 to 0.40) allowing for a downward adjustment for wrong sign errors and range errors. (It is very similar to CET scoring except instead of getting extra points for accuracy, you lose extra points for inaccuracy, but the math works out similar).
Ranks ___ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ Mar _TOTAL _______ Mar _ Avg
now (Feb/win)_fcst (rank)_FORECASTER ____EWP scoring (pts) __ error__ avg 4mo (Ranks, now and after Feb)
_01 _ 02 ___ 90.0 (15)^__ Jeff C ________________7.07^__30.46 _____21.5 __ 36.53 mm _t4_ (8) ...
_02 _ 03 ___ 88.0 (17) __ summer18 ___________6.77 __ 29.99 _____23.5 __ 32.68 mm _ 2 _ (2) ...
_03 _ 05 ___ 91.6 (12) __ Weather26 ___________7.77 __ 29.90 _____ 19.9 __ 40.13 mm _12_ (16) ...
_04 _ 10 ___129.0 (08) __ DR(S)NO _____________8.58 __ 29.36 _____17.5 __ 39.28 mm_ t9_ (15) ...
_05 _ 04 ___ 85.0 (21) __ J 10 ___________________5.96 __ 28.59 _____ 26.5 __ 36.68 mm _ 6 _ (6) ...
_06 _ 17 ___ 94.0 (08) __ Emmett Garland _____ 8.58 __ 27.07 _____ 17.5 __ 42.78 mm_ 17_ (23) ...
_07 _ 09 ___ 81.0 (24) __ Feb1991blizzard______5.36 __ 26.22 _____ 30.5 __ 39.03 mm _ 8 _ (9) ...
_08 _ 13 ___ 87.5 (20) __ snowray ______________6.17 __ 25.71 _____ 24.0 __ 39.28 mm _t9 _ (12) ...
_09 _ 24 ___104.0 (02)__ virtualsphere ________ 9.80 __ 25.52 _______7.5 __ 39.43 mm _ 11 _ (22) ...
_10 _ 23 ___ 95.0 (06) __Mr Maunder __________ 9.18 ___25.35 _____16.5 __ 46.53 mm_ 26 _ (33) ...
_11 _ 16 ___ 88.0 (19)^__stewfox ______________6.27^__25.06 _____ 23.5 __ 35.48 mm _ 3 _ (4) ...
_12 _ 25 ___ 95.1 (03) __ Polar Gael ____________ 9.58 __ 24.90 _____ 16.4 __ 45.80 mm_ 23 _ (31) ...
_13 _ 01 ___ -- -- ( --- ) __ noname_weather _____ --- --- __ 24.41 ____(38.5) __ 36.78 mm _ 7 _ (3) ...
_14 _ 07 ___ 72.0 (35) __ Frigid _________________ 3.12 __ 24.05 _____ 39.5 __ 32.28 mm _ 1_ (1) ...
_15 _ 08 ___ 72.0 (36) __ Don ___________________3.02 __ 23.94 _____39.5 __ 40.28 mm _13 _ (7) ...
_16 _ 06 ___ 63.0 (42) __ godber 1 ______________1.64 __ 23.64 _____48.5 __ 42.03 mm _14 _ (5) ...
(16.4)_(6.6)_ 67.3 (39.7)___1994-2023 average__2.16 __ 23.49 _____44.2 __44.43 mm _20.0_(12.2) ...
_17 _ 20 ___ 82.0 (22) __ methuselah ___________ 5.76 __ 23.23 _____29.5 __ 47.93 mm _ 27_ (28) ...
_18 _ 11 ___ 68.0 (39) __ February1978 _________ 2.30 __ 22.97 _____43.5 __ 43.53 mm_ 18 _ (11) ...
_19 _ 14 ___ 76.5 (32) __Metwatch ______________ 3.72 __ 22.86 _____35.0 __ 42.67 mm_ 15_ (13) ...
_20 _ 19 ___ 78.0 (28)__I remember Atlantic252__4.65 __22.77 _____33.5 __ 44.93 mm_ 22_ (18) ...
(20.4)(11.4)__65.4 (41.2)__1991-2020 average__1.86 __ 21.95 _____ 46.1 __ 46.38 mm_ 24.4 _(14.9) ...
_21 _ 21 ___ 77.0 (29) __ dancerwithwings _______4.35 __ 21.51 _____34.5 __ 52.28 mm_ t39_ (36) ...
(21.2)(17.6) _71.5 (36.3) _ 1981-2010 average _ 2.88 __ 21.22 _____40.0 __ 48.18 mm_27.3_(22.8) ...
(21.8)(22.7) _78.0 (27) ____ Consensus___________4.75 __ 20.97 _____33.5 __ 49.78 mm_32.5_(30.5) ...
_22 _ 30 ___ 90.0 (13) __ Let It Snow! ____________ 7.57__ 20.75 _____21.5 __ 42.78 mm_ 16_ (t20) ...
_23 _ 18 ___ 70.0 (37) __ jonboy _________________ 2.72 __ 20.94 _____41.5 __ 50.43 mm_ 35 _(t26) ...
_24 _ 22 ___ 77.0 (30) __ Reef ____________________4.25 __ 20.62 _____34.5 __ 49.18 mm_t30 _ (29) ...
_25 _ 35 ___ 94.0 (10)^__SteveB _________________ 8.08^__20.26 _____17.5 __ 52.78 mm_ 42 _ (58.) ...
_26 _ 12 ___ 53.0 (48) __ WYorksWeather _______ 0.34 __ 19.92 _____ 58.5 __ 50.58 mm_ 36 _ (17) ...
_27 _ 40 ___ 94.0 (09) __ Addicks Fan 1981 ______8.48 __ 19.51 _____ 17.5 __ 44.43 mm _20_ (t26) ...
_28 _ 37 ___ 89.0 (16) __ Midlands Ice Age _______6.97 __ 19.20 _____ 22.5 __ 50.28 mm_ 34_(41) ...
_29 _ 15 ___ --- --- ( --- ) __chilly milly _____________ --- ---__ 18.85 ____ (38.5)__ 44.03 mm_ 19_ (14) ...
_30 _ 45 ___ 95.0 (07) __ SLEETY _________________ 9.08 ___18.36 _____16.5 __ 36.53 mm _ t4 _ (10) ...
_31 _ 47 ___ 95.0 (05) __ Stationary Front _______ 9.28 ___18.33 _____16.5 __ 55.78 mm_ t51 _ (61) ...
_32 _ 33 ___ 78.8 (26) __ Roger J Smith __________ 4.95 __ 17.56 _____32.7 __ 48.85 mm_ 29 _ (29) ...
_33 _ 38 ___ 82.0 (23) __ rwtwm _________________5.56 __ 17.12 _____ 29.5 __ 54.03 mm_ 46 _ (52) ...
_34 _ 44 ___ 90.0 (14) __ weatherforducks ______ 7.47 ___17.03 _____21.5 __ 49.53 mm_ 32 _ (38) ...
_35 _ 32 ___ 77.0 (31) __ Mulzy __________________4.15 __ 16.99 _____ 34.5 __ 54.53 mm_ 47 _ (t46) ...
_36 _ 28 ___ 74.0 (33) ___ summer blizzard ______3.52 __ 16.98 _____37.5 __ 55.78 mm _t51 _ (51) ...
_37 _ 43 ___ 88.0 (18)^__seaside60 ______________6.37^__16.00 _____23.5 __ 53.78 mm _t43_ (t54) ...
_38 _ 27 ___ 60.0 (44) __ The PIT _________________1.53 ___15.58 _____51.5 __ 59.03 mm_ 62_ (t48) ...
_39 _ 41 ___ 78.0 (27) __summer8906 ___________4.75 ___14.63 _____33.5 __ 52.28 mm_t39 _(37) ...
_40 _ 34 ___ 70.0 (38)^__davehsug ______________2.32^__ 14.62 _____41.5 __ 55.78 mm_ t51_ (43) ...
(40.5)(25.9)_65.5 (38.7) __average of all data ____3.14 __ 14.43 _____46.0 __ 54.88 mm_ 47.3_ (34.8)
_41 _ 26 ___--- --- (---) __KirkcaldyWeather ________--- ---___14.22 ____(38.5)__ 46.93 mm _24 _ (19) ...
_42 _ 29 ___ --- --- (---) __ ScottD __________________ --- ---__ 13.42 ____(38.5) __ 49.18 mm _t30_ (25) ...
_43 _ 31 ___ -- -- (---) __ moorlander _____________ -- -- __ 13.13 _____ (38.5) __ 48.53 mm_ 28 _ (24) ...
_44 _ 36 ___ -- -- ( --- ) __ prolongedSnowLover ___ --- --- __12.30 ____(38.5)__ 47.03 mm _25_ (t20) ...
_45 _ 48 ___ 72.5 (34) __ Bobd29 _________________ 3.32 ___11.68 _____39.0 __ 61.75 mm _66 _ (65) ...
_46 _ 42 ___ 60.0 (45) __ daniel* __________________ 1.43 ___11.25 ____ 51.5 __ 62.78 mm_ 67 _ (60) ...
_47 _ 39 __ -- -- ( --- ) __ Somerset girl _____________ --- ---__ 11.18 ____(38.5)__ 58.53 mm_ 61 _ (59) ...
_48 _ 72 ___ 95.0 (04) __ syed2878 ________________ 9.38 ___ 9.87 _____16.5 __ 74.03 mm_ 73 _ (73) ...
_49 _ 50 ___ 60.0 (42) __ Leo97t ___________________1.63 ___ 9.44 _____51.5 __ 67.78 mm _ 69 _ (67) ...
_50 _(---) __110.0 (01)^^ _B87 _____________________ 9.40^^_9.40 ______ 1.5 __ 44.50 mm_ 21 _ (---) _ first entry ...
_51 _ 46 ___ --- --- (---) __ Tillys ____________________--- --- ___ 9.14 ____(38.5) __ 50.03 mm _ 33 _ (28) ...
_52 _ 49 ___ --- --- (---) __ John88b ________________--- --- ___ 8.29 ____(38.5) __ 55.78 mm_ t51 _ (t48) ...
_53 _ 57 ___ 67.0 (40) __ Weather Observer _______2.10 ___ 7.68 _____44.5 __ 67.93 mm _ 70 _ (69) ...
_54 _ 51 ___ --- --- (---) __ jmp223 __________________--- --- ___ 7.08 ____(38.5) __ 51.78 mm_ 38 _ (32) ...
_55 _ 52 __ --- --- (---) __ Matt Stoke ______________ --- --- ___ 6.30 ____(38.5) __ 52.28 mm_t39 _ (34) ...
_56 _ 53 ___ 43.0 (49) __ summer shower _________ 0.00 ___ 6.25 _____68.5 __ 75.73 mm_ 74 _ (70) ...
_57 _ 54 ___ --- --- (---) __ Wold Topper ( ---) ________ -- -- ___ 6.18 _____(38.5) __ 50.78 mm_ 37_ (30) ...
_58 _ 55 ___ --- --- (---) __ Shaunado _______________--- --- ___ 5.64 _____(38.5) __ 61.20 mm_ 65 _ (64) ...
_59 _ 56 ___ --- --- (---)__ summer of 95 ____________ -- -- ___ 5.60 _____(38.5) __ 53.93 mm_ 45 _ (40) ...
_60 _ 58 ___ --- --- (---) __ Rob79812010 ____________ -- -- ___ 5.56 _____(38.5) __ 53.78 mm_t43 _ (39) ...
_61 _ 59 ___ --- --- (---) __ Earthshine _______________ -- -- ___ 5.45 _____(38.5) __ 59.53 mm _ 63 _ (62) ...
_62 _ 64 __ 66.0 (41) __shillitocettwo ______________1.90 ___ 5.24 _____45.5 ___ 73.13 mm _72 _ (71) ...
_63 _ 73 __ 81.0 (25)^^__Wade ___________________4.56^^__4.96 _____30.5 ___ 72.28 mm_ 71 _ (66) ...
_64 _ 60 ___ --- --- (---) __EastLancsRain ____________ -- -- ___ 4.88 _____(38.5) __ 55.18 mm_ 48_ (44) ...
_65 _ 61 ___ --- --- (---) __harveyslugger ____________ -- -- ___ 4.34 _____(38.5) __ 55.78 mm_t51_(t49) ...
_66 _ 62 ___ --- --- (---) __ Alexis J9 __________________ -- -- ___ 3.99 _____(38.5) __ 55.28 mm_ 49_(45) ...
_67 _ 63 __ --- --- (---) __ snowblind ________________ -- -- ___ 3.67 _____(38.5) __ 55.58 mm _ 50_ (t46) ...
_68 _ 65 __ --- --- (---) __sukayuonsensnow ________ -- -- ___ 3.30 _____ (38.5) __ 57.03 mm_ 56 _ (53) ...
_69 _ 66 __ --- --- (---) __ Climate Man ______________ -- -- ___ 2.90 ____ (38.5) __ 57.53 mm_ t57_ (t54) ...
_70 _ 70 __ 55.0 (46) __ Neil N ____________________ 0.75 ___ 2.59 _____ 56.5 __ 78.78 mm_ 75 _ (72) ...
t71 _t67 __ --- --- (---) ___gazse9 ( -- ) _______________ -- -- ___ 2.28 ____ (38.5) __ 57.53 mm_t57_ (t54) ...
t71 _t67 __ --- --- (---) __ catbrainz __________________-- -- ___ 2.28 ____ (38.5) __ 57.53 mm_ t57_ (t54) ...
_73 _ 69 __ --- --- (---) __ Norrance _________________ -- -- ___ 2.04 _____(38.5) __ 66.28 mm_ 68 _ (68) ...
_74 _ 71 __ --- --- (---) __ baddie ____________________--- ---___ 0.76 ____ (38.5)__ 60.20 mm_ 64_ (63) ...
_75 _ --- __ 54.0 (47) __ sunny_vale ________________0.24^___0.24 ____ 57.5 ___ 58.50 mm_ 60_ (---) _ first entry ...
note: Ranks for normals and consensus are in decimal form, indicating where they are located relative to integer ranks of contest entrants.
Log of results (winter report for cross-reference to above)
RANKS ____ FORECASTER __________________ POINTS ___________________ ERRORS (ranks)
F _ J _ D _______________________________ D _ J _ F _ _ _ _Total ___________ D _ J _ F _ _ _ _ avg ___ ranks F J D
note: winter ranks are Feb ranks
01_02_04 ___ noname_weather ____ 9.43_8.22_6.76__24.36 ______ 32.3_ 7.2 _69.1___36.20 mm _ 3 _ 1_ 4
02_05_14 ___ Jeff C _________________ 7.53_8.38_7.48 __23.39 ______ 51.3_ 7.2_66.1 ___41.53 mm _ 8 _9_ t14
03_13_28 ___ summer18 ___________ 4.88_8.88_9.46__23.22 ______ 73.3_ 4.8_29.1 ___35..73 mm_ 2_18_ t27
04_01_08 ___ J 10 __________________ 8.67_9.12_4.84__22.63 ______ 41.3_ 2.8_76.1 __ 40.07 mm _ 6 _3_ 8
05_10_30 ___ Weather26 ___________4.37_9.92_7.84__22.13 ______ 76.3 _1.2_63.1__46.87 mm_ 16_17_30
06_07_06 ___ godber 1 _____________9.14_6.20_6.66__22.00 ______ 37.3_13.2_69.1__39.87 mm _ 5_ 4_t5
(6.6)(4.7) 17.6) _ 1994-2023 average _ 6.86_9.33_5.14__21.33 ____ 55.0_ 2.4_76.1__44.50 mm _12.2_9.1_17.6
07_22_02 ___ Frigid ________________9.81_1.30_9.82__20.93 ______ 26.3_42.2_21.1__29.87 mm _ 1_t10_ 2
08_03_03 ___ Don __________________ 9.62_7.47_3.83__20.92 _____ 31.3_ 9.2_81.1__ 40.53 mm _ 7 _ 2 _ 3
09_06_09 ___ Feb1991blizzard _____ 8.48_8.48_5.32__20.86 _____ 42.3_10.2_73.1__41.87 mm _ 9 _6 _ 9
10_09_20 ___ DR(S)NO _____________ 6.38_8.30_6.10__20.78 _____ 61.3_ 7.2_71.1__46.53 mm _15_ t10_20
11_19_12 ___ February1978 _________7.91_4.02_8.74__20.67_____ 47.3_26.2_57.1__43.53 mm _11_14_12
(11.4)5.4)19.1)__1991-2020 average _6.55_9.23_4.31__20.09 ____57.7_ 3.0_78.7__46.47 mm_ 14.9_9.3_19.1
12_04_11 ___ WYorksWeather _______8.10_8.56_2.92__19.58 ____ 46.3_ 6.4_91.1 __47.93 mm _ 17_ 7_11
13_08_07 ___ snowray _______________ 8.86_6.26_4.42__19.54 ____ 39.8_15.2_78.1__44.37 mm_ 12 _ 8 _ 7
14_28_25 ___ Metwatch ______________5.38_4.66_9.10__19.14 ____ 66.3_23.2_46.1 __45.20 mm_ 13_29_25
15_26_10 ___ chilly milly _____________ 8.29_2.10_8.46__18.85 ____ 43.3_35.2_59.1 __45.87 mm_ 14_ 19_10
16_32_38 ___ stewfox _______________2.85_5.94_10.00__18.79 ____ 86.3_17.2_14.9 __39.47 mm_ 4 _t43_t38
17_25_33 __ Emmett Garland _______ 3.89_6.58_8.02__18.49 ____ 80.3_13.2_60.1 __ 51.20 mm_ 23_t33_t32
(17.6)8.7)22.4)__1981-2010 average___5.90_8.96_3.48__18.34 ___63.9_4.2_84.6___50.90 mm _22.8_ 9.9_ 22.4
18 _20_43 __ jonboy _________________ 1.90_9.38_6.94__18.22 ____ 90.3_ 1.8_68.1 __53.40 mm_ t26_31_43
19_30_13 __ I remember Atlantic252__7.72_1.85_8.56__18.12____ 49.3_37.8_59.1__48.73 mm_ 18_27_13
20_12_27 __ methuselah _____________ 4.98_9.20_3.29__17.47 ____ 73.3_ 2.8_86.1 __54.07 mm _ 28_16_t27
21_24_49 __ dancerwithwings _______0.76_10.00_6.40__17.16 ____102.3_1.2_71.1__58.20 mm_ 36_t43_49
22_18_29 ___ Reef ____________________ 4.56_7.76_4.05__16.37 _____ 74.3_ 8.8_79.1 __54.07 mm_ 29_22_29
(22.7)22.4)27) ___ Consensus_________ 4.98_6.10_5.14__16.22 _____ 73.3_16.2_76.1__ 55.20 mm_30.5_29_27
23_37_44 ___ Mr Maunder ___________ 1.71_6.10_8.36__16.17 _____ 94.3_16.2_59.1__ 56.53 mm_ 33 _t50_44
24_11_01 ___ virtualsphere __________10.00_4.24_1.48__15.72 _____ 25.3_25.8_99.1__ 50.07 mm _ 22_ 5_ 1
25_34_23 ___ Polar Gael ______________ 5.78_2.42_7.12__15.32 _____64.8_34.9_67.1__ 55.60 mm _ 31 _39_23
(25.9)19.9)26.5)_ average of all data __ 5.09_6.20_3.34__14.63 _____72.2_15.6_85.6__ 57.80 mm_ 34.8_27.8_26.5
26_39_--- ___ KirkcaldyWeather ______ --- _5.30_8.92 ___14.22 _____ 78.3_20.6_50.3__ 49.73 mm _19_38_---
27_16_36 ___ The PIT _________________ 3.41_9.52_1.12__14.05 _____81.3_ 2.2_101.1__61.53 mm_t48_ t23_t34
28_21_40 ___ summer blizzard _______ 2.47_8.71_2.28__13,46 _____87.3_ 6.2_92.1 __ 61.87 mm_ 51_t33_40
29_35_--- ___ ScottD ___________________ ---_ 7.92_ 5.50__13.42 _____78.3_ 7.8_72.1__ 52.73 mm _25_25_ ---
30_14_19 ___ Let It Snow! ______________6.58_6.60_---__13.18 _____ 57.3_11.2_ 81.1__ 49.87 mm_t20_t10_ 19
31_15_24 ___ moorlander _____________ 5.58_7.55_ ---__13.13 _____ 65.3_ 9.2_81.1__ 51.87 mm_ 24_15_ 24
32_29_26 ___ Mulzy ____________________5.18_4.84_2.82__12.84 _____71.3_21.2_91.1__61.20 mm_ t46_32_26
33_59_45 ___Roger J Smith ____________1.52_1.46_9.64 __12.62 _____96.6_40.9_25.3__ 54.27 mm_ 29_63_45
34_39_17 ___ davehsug _______________ 6.96_0.40_4.94__12.30 _____53.3_52.2_76.1 __60.53 mm_ 43 _t47_17
35_52_47 ___ SteveB __________________ 1.14_3.38_7.66 __12.18 _____98.3_30.2_65.1 __64.53 mm_ 58 _t58_47
36_17_05 ___prolongedSnowLover ____9.24_3.06_ --- __ 12.30 ______37.3_31.2_81.1__ 49.87 mm_t20_ t10 _t05
37_36_18 ___ Midlands Ice Age ________6.77_1.14_4.32__12.23 ______56.3_44.2_78.1__59.53 mm_ 41_40_18
38_27_22 ___ rwtwm ___________________5.98_4.28_1.30__11.56 _____ 63.3_23.2_100.1__62.20 mm_52_26_22
39_57_37 __ Somerset girl _____________ 3.04_0.76_7.40__11.18 _____ 84.3_44.2_66.1__64.87 mm_ 59_t58_37
40_23_15 ___ Addicks Fan 1981 ________ 7.43_3.60_ ---__11.03 _____ 51.3_27.8_81.1__53.40 mm _t26_20_t14
41_42_ --- ___ summer8906 ____________ ---- _ 6.40_3.48__ 9.88 ______ 78.3_12.8_84.6__58.53 mm_ 37_30_ ---
42_41_39 ___ daniel* ___________________2.75_3.78_3.29__ 9.82 _____ 86.3_27.2_86.1__66.53 mm_ 60_53_t38
43_38_16 ___ seaside60 ________________ 7.03_0.58_2.02__ 9.63 _____ 51.3_45.2_95.1__63.87 mm _t54_37_t14
44_56_ --- __ weatherforducks __________---- _3.86_5.70__ 9.56 _____ 78.3_27.2_71.1 __58.87 mm_ 38_t47_ ----
45_---_--- __ SLEETY _____________________---- _ ---- _ 9.28 __9.28 ______78.3_21.2_30.1 __ 43.20 mm_ 10_ ----_ ----
46_31_ --- ___Tillys ______________________ --- 9.14__ --- ___ 9.14 ______ 78.3_ 2.2_ 81.1 __ 53.87 mm _28_21_----
47_55_46 ___Stationary Front _________ 1.33_2.58__5.04__8.95 ______97.3_33.2_76.1 __68.87 mm_ 61_60_46
48_45_31 ___ Bobd29 __________________4.18_1.62_2.56__ 8.36 _____ 78.3_38.2_91.5 __ 69.33 mm _65_54_31
49_33_34 ___ John88b __________________3.61_4.68_ --- ___8.29 _____ 81.3_22.2_81.1__ 61.53 mm_ t48 _t43_t34
50_63_48 ___ Leo97t ___________________0.96_0.66_6.20__ 7.81_____101.3_47.2_71.1__ 73.20 mm _ 67_65_48
51 _ 51 ___ jmp223 _____________________ --- __7.08_ ---- __ 7.08 _____ 78.3_ 9.2_81.1 __ 56.20 mm _32_28_ ----
52_---_--- __ Matt Stoke ________________ --- _ --- _ 6.30 ___ 6.30 ______78.3_21.2_71.1 __ 56.87 mm_ 34 _----_----
53_43_50 ___ summer shower ________ 0.57_5.68_0.00___6.25_____105.3_17.8_111.1__78.13 mm_ 70_57_50
54_44_21 ___ Wold Topper ____________ 6.18_ ---- _---- ___6.18 _____ 62.3_21.2_81.1 __ 54.87 mm _ 30_t23_21
55_64_ ----___ Shaunado _______________---- _0.50_ 5.14___5.64 _____ 78.3_51.9_76.1__ 68.77 mm_ 64_61_----
56_46_ --- ___ summer of 95 __________ -- -- __5.60_---- ___5.60 _____ 78.3_17.8_81.1 __ 59.07 mm_ 40_36_----
57_50_42 ___Weather Observer ________2.18_2.82_0.58___5.58 _____89.3_32.2_106.1__75.87 mm _ 69_55_t41
58_48_---- ___Rob79812010 ____________ -- -- __5.56 _---- ___5.56 _____78.3_17.2_81.1__ 58.87 mm _ 39_35_----
59_47_35 ___Earthshine ________________ -- -- __ 5.45_ --- __ 5.45 _____ 78.3_17.2_81.1 __ 66.53 mm _ 62_56_t34
60_51_----___EastLancsRain ______________-- -- __ 4.88 _ ---__ 4.88 _____ 78.3_22.8_81.1__ 60.73 mm_ 44_41_----
61_53_---- ___harveyslugger _____________ -- -- __ 4.34 _ ---__ 4.34 _____ 78.3_25.2_81.1__ 61.53 mm_t49_t43_----
62_54_32 ___Alexis J9 ____________________ 3.99_ ---- __ ----__ 3.99 _____ 80.3_21.2_ 81.1 __60.87 mm_ 45_42_t32
63_---_ --- ___ snowblind _________________ -- -- _ -- -- _ 3.67__ 3.67 _____ 78.3_21.2_84.1 __61.20 mm _ t46_ ----_ ----
64_61_51 __ shillitocettwo _______________0.38_2.02_0.94___ 3.34 _____110.3_34.8_102.1__82.40 mm _71_64_51
65_58_--- __ sukayuonsensnow __________ -- -- _ 3.30_---- ___ 3.30 _____ 78.3_30.2_81.1 __ 63.20 mm_ 53_49_----
66_60_ --- __ Climate Man _______________ -- -- ___ 2.90_----___ 2.90_____ 78.3_32.3_81.1 __ 63.87 mm_t54_t50_----
t67_62_41 __gazse9 _____________________ 2.28 _ -- -- _ -- ---__ 2.28 _____ 89.3_21.2_81.1 __ 63.87 mm_t54_t50_t41
t67 _--- _--- __catbrainz __________________ ---- _ ---- _ 2.28 ___ 2.28 ______ 78.3_21.2_92.1 __63.87 mm_ t54_----_-----
69_65_ ---- __ Norrance ________________ -- --__ 0.30 _ 1.74 __ 2.04 _____ 78.3_52.2_96.1 __75.53 mm_ 68 _62_----
70_67_53 __ Neil N _____________________0.00 _---- _1.84 __ 1.84 __140.3_21.2_96.1 __ 85.87 mm_ 72_66_53
71_---_--- __ baddie ____________________ ---- _ ---- _ 0.76 ___ 0.76 __78.3_21.2_102.8__ 67.43 mm_ 63_----_----
72_66_52 __ syed2878 _________________0.19_0.00_0.30 ___ 0.49 __111.3_54.2_111.1__93.20 mm_ 73_67_52
73_---_--- ___Wade _____________________ ---- _ ----_ 0.40 ___ 0.40 ____78.3_21.2_111.1 __ 86.20 mm_ 66_----_----
Table of forecasts for March 2024 ... EWP with range and sign errors indicated (scoring int's before applying are 0.20)
10.0 _ 95.1 __ Polar Gael (19) __________________129.0 __ DR(S)NO 21
9.3 _ --- --- __ BlueSkies_do_I_see (10) _________110.0 __ B87^^ 2
8.4 _ 53.8 __ WYorksWeather (23) _____________104.0 __ virtualsphere 1
8.3 _ 94.0 __ Emmett Garland (37) _____________ 95.1 __ Polar Gael 3
8.2 _ 82.0 __ Methuselah ( 2 ) __________________ 95.0 __ syed2878 4
8.2 _ 94.0 __ Addicks Fan 1981 (38) ____________ 95.0 __ Stationary Front 5
8.1 _ --- --- __ Typhoon John ( 9 ) _______________ 95.0 __ Mr Maunder 6
8.0 _ 60.0 __ The PIT (22) _______________________95.0 __ SLEETY 7
7.9 _ 43.0 __ Summer Shower (24) _____________94.0 __ Emmett Garland 8
7.9 _ --- --- __ Mark Bayley (25) _________________94.0 __ Addicks Fan 1981 9
7.9 _ 95.0 __ Stationary Front (28) _____________ 94.0 __ SteveB^ 10
7.9 _ 72.0 __ Don (41) __________________________ 91.6 __ Weather26 11
7.8 _ 81.0 __ feb1991blizzard (36) ______________90.0 __ Let It Snow! 12
7.8 _ 87.5 __ snowray (39) ______________________90.0 __ weatherforducks 13
7.8 _ 54.0 __ sunny_vale (L1-5) _________________90.0 __ Jeff C^ 14
7.7 _ 77.0 __ dancerwithwings (13) _____________89.0 __ Midlands Ice Age 15
7.7 _ --- --- __ Summer Sun (29) _________________88.0 __ summer18 16
7.7 _ 95.0 __ Mr Maunder (32) _________________ 88.0 __ seaside60^ 17
7.6 _ 77.0 __ Reef (18) __________________________88.0 __ stewfox^ 18
7.6 _ 85.0 __ J 10 (43) ___________________________87.5 __ snowray 19
7.5 _ 78.0 __ summer8906 ( 5 ) _________________85.0 __ J 10 20
7.5 _ --- --- __ Damianslaw (40) _________________ 82.0 __ Methuselah 22
7.4 _ 78.8 __ Roger J Smith (26) _________________82.0 __ rwtwm 23
7.4 _ 88.0 __ stewfox (L1-6) _____________________81.0 __ feb1991blizzard 24
7.3 _ 78.0 __ I Remember Atlantic252 (16) _____ 81.0 __ Wade^^ 25
7.3 _ 74.0 __ summer blizzard (15) _____________78.8 __ Roger J Smith 26
7.3 _ 91.6 __ Weather26 (35) ___________________ 78.0 __ summer8906 27
7.2 _ 78.0 __ consensus _________________________ 78.0 __ consensus 27
7.2 _ 90.0 __ Let It Snow! ( 3 ) ___________________78.0 __ I Remember Atlantic252 28
7.2 _ 72.0 __ Frigid (21) _________________________ 77.0 __ dancerwithwings 29
7.2 _ 77.0 __ Mulzy (30) _________________________ 77.0 __ Reef 30
7.2 _ 89.0 __ Midlands Ice Age (33) ______________77.0 __ Mulzy 31
7.1 _ 66.0 __ shillitocettwo (11) _________________ 76.5 __ Metwatch 32
7.1 _ 67.0 __ Weather Observer (31) ____________74.0 __ summer blizzard 33
7.1 _ 88.0 __ seaside60 (L1-2) ___________________72.5 __ bobd 34
7.0 _ 90.0 __ weatherforducks (27) _____________ 72.0 __ Frigid 35
6.9 _ 72.5 __ bobd29 ( 1 ) _______________________ 72.0 __ Don 36
6.9 _129.0__ DR(S)NO (12) _____________________ 71.5 __ 1981-2010 36.2
6.9 _110.0__ B87 (L2-1) ________________________ 70.0 __ jonboy 37
6.8 _ 95.0 __ syed2878 (17) _____________________70.0 __ davehsug^ 38
6.8 _ 68.0 __ February1978 (44) ________________ 68.0 __ February1978 39
6.7 _ 65.4 __ mean 1991-2020 __________________ 67.3 __ 1994-2023 39.7
6.7 _ 67.3 __ mean 1994-2023 __________________67.0 __ Weather Observer 40
6.7 _ 88.0 __ summer18 ( 6 ) ____________________66.0 __ shillitocettwo 41
6.7 _ 60.0 __ Leo97t ( 4 ) ________________________65.4 __ 1991-2020 41.2
6.7 _ 94.0 __ SteveB (L1-4) ______________________63.0 __ Godber 1 (-.01) 42
6.6 _ 71.5 __ mean 1981-2010 __________________61.6___1766-2023 42.5
6.6 _104.0__ virtualsphere ( 7 ) _________________60.0 __ Leo97t (-.02) 43
6.6 _ 82.0 __ rwtwm (20) _______________________ 60.0 __ The PIT (-.02) 44
6.5 _ 76.5 __ Metwatch (47) ____________________ 60.0 __ daniel* (-.02) 45
6.4 _ 70.0 __ jonboy (14) _______________________ 55.0 __ Neil N (-.05) 46
6.3 _ 63.0 __ Godber 1 (46) ____________________ 54.0 __ sunny_vale^ (-.06) 47
6.3 _ 70.0 __ davehsug (L1-3) __________________ 53.8 __ WYorksWeather (-.06) 48
6.1 _ 55.0 __ Neil N ( 8 ) ________________________ 43.0 __ Summer Shower (-.06) 49
6.0 _ 81.0 __ Wade (L2-2) _______________________ (six CET only)
5.4 _ 60.0 __ daniel* (45) _______________________
5.4 _ 61.6 __ mean 1766-2023 ________________
4.9 _ 95.0 __ SLEETY (34) _______________________
4.5 _ 90.0 __ Jeff C ( L1-1 ) ______________________
4.1 _ --- --- __ Kentish Man (42) _________________
_________________________
47 on time CET and 41 on time EWP forecasts, both added 8 late forecasts (so far)
total 55 CET, 49 EWP (^late day)