Roger J Smith

Here's how June CET and EWP have paired in the past 81 years, in graphical form. There is a tendency to warm/dry and cool/wet although all types of combinations have occurred. The graph is set up so that the actual values are at the position of the middle of the four-digit year number (note 1919/1979 same and should begin inside the space of 2015 and also. 1938, 1952 are at same position as are 1905 and 1945, 1908 and 1915, 1912 and 1980, then 1920 and 1953, also 1927 and 1985). I may expand this back further so check back, as the post may be edited to contain more data. However, a check of all years that exceeded 100 mm (1766 to 1900) shows that none of them had CET values higher than 14.8 C., so no matter how far back I add data, the upper right quadrant of this chart will remain largely void. JUNE CET vs EWP graphical display 1901-2018 (adding warm Junes 1822,26.46 and also two other very wet Junes 1860,1879) __ the driest Junes in 1921 and 1925 are now in the data displayed, which is being gradually augmented with older data through editing. __ have added June 1868 the driest June in second half of 19th century. _ all 19th century additions in brackets _ separate chart for 1772-1900. note -- quality control applied to the top chart assures that equal CET values are aligned and on the correct EWP (to nearest 2.5 mm, e.g. 18.8-21.2 for 20, 21.3-23.7, then 23.8 - 26.2 for 25, 26.3 - 28.7 then 28.8 to 31.2 for 30, etc. Spacing of adjacent CET columns is slightly overlapping, for example a set at 12.0, 12.1 and 12.2 would be most accurately shown as YEAREAYEAR (hypothetically for 1977, 1995 and 2022 ... 1977992022 so when three are shown adjacent, the left and right ends are one numeral left and right of where they should be positioned relative to their cohorts (the central year is in the precise accurate location). All equal cases are shown with a comma and the centre point lies where it normally would for the first of the set, not shifted left. Two adjacent would overlap, the left of the two is precisely located and the right member should be one digit further left than shown (where no comma, commas and partial second year numbers are used wherever possible for clarity). <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< C E T >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> _____ 11.5 _____ 12.0 _____ 12.5 _____ 13.0 _____ 13.5 _____ 14.0 _____ 14.5 _____ 15.0 _____ 15.5 _____ 16.0 _____ 16.5 _____ 17.0 _____ 17.5 _____ 18.0 _____ 18.5 E W P 160 ...........................................................................................................2012..................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... EWP_____ ....................................(1860.).............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 155 ............................................cool /............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ ______ ...............................................wet .......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 150 ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... ______ .................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 145 .........................................................................................................................................................................................2007...................................................................................................................................................... ______ .................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 140 ...............................................................................(1879)............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ ______ .................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 135 ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... ______ .......................................................................................................................................1997................................................................................................................................................................................................. 130 .....................................................................................................................................................................................................................1982........................................................................................................................... ______ .................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 125 ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... ______ ...........................................................................................................................1980..........19121998.............................................................................................................................................................................. 120 ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... ______ .................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 115 .................................................................................................................................................................................................2016............................................................................................................................................... ______ .................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 110 ....................................................1971.........1987.........................................................1958.................................................................................................................................................................................................. .____ .................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 105 ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... ______ ..............................1991...................1927,85........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 100 ......................................................................................................................................................................1936....................................................................................................................................................................... ______ ..........................................................................1928.............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 95 .......................................................................................................1954...............................................................................1935......................1968....2017................................................................................................ ______ .....................................................................................................................................................1931..................................................................................................................................................................................... 90 .....................................................1907............................................1948.............1999.................................................................................................................................................................................................................... ______ ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................1966.......................................................................................................................... 85 ...................1909.............1977....................................1946..........................1955.......................................1963................................................................................................................................................................. ______ ..............................................................................1903.................................2011............................1905,45..................................................................................................................................................................... 80 ..............................................................................................................1926..................................1911................................................................................................................................................................................... ______ ........................................................................................................................1964................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 75 ...............................................................................................................1990................................................................1965.........................................................2003..................................................................................... ______ ..............1972.......................................................................................................1902........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 70 ...................1916...........................................................1956.................................1974.........................1910.......................................................................................................................................................................... ______ ...............................................................................................................................1924............1920,53........................1993..........1947....................................................................................................................... 65 ....................................................................................................................................2008.........1906.(81-10 AVG)..............1917.................................................................................................................................... ______ .......................................................................................................1944.1978........................19131939................1973......................................................................................................................................................... 60 ..........................................................................................................................................................1943..................................2004.......................................................................................................................................... ______ ...............................................................................................................................1901............2002.1989..2009..............................1933...................................................................................................................... 55 ..........................................................................................................................................................1938,52.....................................2005................................................................................................................................. ______ .............................................................................................................................................................................................1957...................................1960.................................................................................................... 50 ......................................................................................................................1969.........................................................2014....................................................................................................................................................(1846) ______ ..................................................................................................1929..............................................................1934...........1959..................................................................................................................................... 45..................................................................................................1981............................................2001..1986.........................................................................1950.................................................................................... ______ ...................................................................................................................................1967.1937.....1984...............2000......2010....................................................................................................................... 40 ..............................................................................................................................1922...............1913.1961.1988.........................................................1970............................................................................................. ______ .............................................................................................................2013..........1951,20151919,79.............1983............................................1992..................................................................................................... 35 ...........................................................................................................................................1932190819151994................1941................................................................................................................................................. ______ ..................................................................................................1904...........................................................................................1930......................................................................(1822.).................................................... 30 .......................................................................................................1918.........................................1996......................................................................................................................................warm /................................ ______ ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................dry................................ 25 ...............................................................................................................................................................................................................................2006.............................................................................................................. ______ .......................................................................................................................................................................1975................................................................................................................................................................. 20 .........................................................1923..................................................................................19951942..........................................................................................1940............................................................................. ______ ................................................................................................................1962.....................................................................1949.(1868)................2018...................................1976............................................... 15 ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... ______ ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................(1826)................................... 10 ........................................................................................................................................................................1921..................................................................................................................................................................... ______ ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 05 .......................................................................................................................................................................................1925..................................................................................................................................................... _____ 11.5 _____ 12.0 _____ 12.5 _____ 13.0 _____ 13.5 _____ 14.0 _____ 14.5 _____ 15.0 _____ 15.5 _____ 16.0 _____ 16.5 _____ 17.0 _____ 17.5 _____ 18.0 _____ 18.5 Note: The chart establishes the fact that many Junes are both cooler to near normal in temperature, and drier than average, almost all wet Junes are also cooler than average, an exception being 1982. The majority of the warmer Junes are quite dry. This appears to be the case for the older historical data not yet added. This chart will begin to get too cluttered in the central portions if I try to go back any further, so I will put brackets around the pre-1900 additions then post a separate chart for the interval 1766 to 1900, to see if it takes on this same appearance (clustering to the cool, dry side of average). What it tells me is that "normal" based on averages is different from "normal" based on median values and perhaps we would have a clearer picture of the real climate from using median values if the distributions are skewed. For EWP in particular, the existence of a defined floor (zero) and an unlimited ceiling (so far 160 mm) slants the outcome towards a skewed distribution -- the higher than average cases are going to pull the average up more than the lower cases drag it down. For temperature, note that the lowest values (11.8) are only 2.7 below the recent normal of 14.5, while the highest value (not in that interval however) was 3.7 higher. The temperatures are more of a symmetrical normal distribution than the rainfalls. Will post that other chart in this same post eventually, might take a while to get it finished but you will see the bare bones of it already. Comparison of CET vs EWP for Junes 1766 to 1900 _ compare to above _____ 11.5 _____ 12.0 _____ 12.5 _____ 13.0 _____ 13.5 _____ 14.0 _____ 14.5 _____ 15.0 _____ 15.5 _____ 16.0 _____ 16.5 _____ 17.0 _____ 17.5 _____ 18.0 _____ 18.5 160 ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... ______ .................................................1860........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 155 ............................................cool /............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ ______ ...............................................wet .......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 150 ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... ______ ............................................................................................................................1768.............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 145 ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... ______ ........................................................................................................................................................1848................................................................................................................................................................................ 140 .............................................................................1879............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... ______ .................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 135 .............................................................................................1852............1797.......................................................................................................................................................................................................................... ______ .................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 130 ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ ______ .................................................................1830....................................................1789.............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 125 ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... ______ .......................................................................................1769.................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 120 .........................................................................................................1784........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ ______ .......................................................................................1770................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 115 .....................................................................................................................................................1839........................................................................................................................................................................................... ______ .....................................................................................................................................................1838....................................................................................................................................................................................... 110 ......................................................................................................18631766.................................................................................................................................................................................................................. .____ ...................................................................................................................................................................1833....................................................................................................................................................................... 105 ...................................................................................1882......................1777.......................................................................................................................................................................................................................... ______ .....................................................................................1795...............................................................................1829............................................................................................................................................................ 100 .............................................................................................................................................18721853........................................................................................................................................................................................ ______ ............................................................................................................1824............................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 95 ..................................................................................1812................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... ______ .........................................................................................................1803.........................1875....................1783....1817..................................................................................................................................................... 90 .........................................................................1871...........................................................................................................1832............................................................................................................................................... ______ .............................................................................................................................................................................................................1866................................................................................................................................ 85 ................................................................................................1792................1883.....................................1900.....................1836......................................................................................................................................... ______ ......................................................................1843.......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 80 .....................................................................................................185518921890..........................................1861................................................................................................................................................................... ______ .................................................................18621816......................1819.....1880...................1779...............18451878,97.................................1772................................................................................................ 75 ..............................................................................1841...................................................1776 1851...................................1778,1828............................................................................................................................... ______ .......................................................................................1888............1894........................1815...........1774.....................1834....................................................................................................................................... 70 ......................................................................................................1881.............................................................................................................1857.....1781.............................................................................................. ______ ...........................................................................................................1802......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 65 .............................................1814....................................................................................1811.....(81-10 AVG).18591773................................................................................................................................................ ______ .....................................................................................................................1885...........1873............................................................................................................................................................................................... 60 ...............................................................................................1854...........1856.................................1790........1835.......1788,18311842..........1786................................................................................................. ______ ........................................................................................................1809 1820.1796.1825................................................................................................................................................................................................ 55 .....................................................................................................................1898...........18401876...........18911782................................................................................................................................................................ ______ ...............................................................................................................1813,64...........................................1808.....................1837........................................................................................................................... 50 ...................................................1823..................................................................1787...............................................................................................................................................................................................................1846 ______ ......................................................................1767.............................................................1780.......................................1877............1865................................................1775............................................................ 45..................................................................................................................................................1807,27...................................................................................1785............................1858.................................................. ______ ............................................................................................................................1849,74,84.1771.1810.......................1850........1899................................................................................................................ 40 ..................................................1821..............................................................................1867...................1844.....................................1893............................................................................................................ ______ ................................................................................................................1793................................................18951806......................................................................................................................................................... 35 ...............................................................................................1869...................................................................1791..................................................................................................................................................................... ______ ................................................................................................................1886....................................................................1870...................................................................................1822............................................... 30 .............................................................................................................................................................................1801.......................................................1804...1818.................1798...warm /................................ ______ .........................................................................................................................1800.....................................................................................................................................................................dry................................ 25 ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... ______ ......................................................................................................................................1799................................................1889.................................................................................................................................... 20 ...............................................................................................................................................................................................1887.............................................................................................................................. ______ ........................................................................................................................................................................................................1868...1794.......................................................................................................... 15 ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... ______ ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 1826................................... 10 ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... ______ ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 05 ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... _____ 11.5 _____ 12.0 _____ 12.5 _____ 13.0 _____ 13.5 _____ 14.0 _____ 14.5 _____ 15.0 _____ 15.5 _____ 16.0 _____ 16.5 _____ 17.0 _____ 17.5 _____ 18.0 _____ 18.5 This older set of data looks remarkably similar to the first (later) chart, albeit perhaps a shift towards more frequent wet cool to average Junes.

Would expect this to be a "back-loaded" summer that starts out poorly and does better in August and September. Has been a while since the last example, I suppose 2012 was better in August than the other months, but I'm thinking more like perhaps 1975 with a more distinct improvement.

(a) CET forecasts -- the averages and extremes includes all values 1981 to 2018 colour coded for warmest, middle and coolest thirds. 23.0 ... 3rd, 1947, warmest daily mean 22.4 ... average for last five days in June 1976 21.2 ... average for last nine days in June 1976 18.2 ... 1846 (warmest June) 18.0 ... 1676 (2nd warmest) 17.3 ... 1826 (3rd warmest) 17.1 ... 1822 (4th warmest) 17.0 ... 1976 (5th warmest) 16.1 ... 2003, 2018 16.0 ... 2017 15.9 ... 2006 15.7 ... 1992 15.5 ... 1982, 2005 15.3 ... 2004 15.2 ... 2010, 2016 15.1 ... 2000, 2007, 2014 15.0 ... 1993 14.9 ... average for 2001-2018. 14.8 ... 1986, 2009 14.7 ... 1822-1851 has the warmest 30-year average of 14.72. June is the only month where this maximum is before 1971-2000 (Dec). 14.68 ... 1991-2018 (emerging 1991-2020 average) ,,, closing in on 1822-1851. 14.6 ... 1989 and average for 1989-2018 (14.64) 14.5 ... 1984, 1994 ... average for 1981-2010, 1986-2015, also for 1701-1800 14.4 ... 1983, 1988, 1996, 2002 14.3 ... 1995, 2001 and average for all years 1659-2018 (14.33), also 1801-1900 14.2 ... 1998 and average for 1961-1990, also 1901-2000 14.1 ... 1997 and average for 1971-2000, also 1659-1700 14.0 ... 2015 13.9 ... 1999, 2008 13.8 ... 2011 13.6 ... 1990, 2013 13.5 ... 2012 13.2 ... 1981 12.8 ... 1987 12.7 ... 1985 12.1 ... 1991 (lone 8th coldest after 1689, 1698 at 12.0 tied 6th coldest) 11.9 ... 1749 (5th coldest) 11.8 ... 1972, 1916, 1909 (tied 2nd coldest) 11.5 ... 1675 (coldest June) 7.3 ... 9th (1816) and 19th (1795) coldest daily means __________________________________________________________________ At 16.1, 2003 and 2018 were tied 18th warmest which is the least extreme such ranking for any month in the period 1981 to 2018. The next in line is May (tied 6th warmest). June is also the only month that has a more extreme cold rank since 1981 (June 1991 -- 8th coldest) than its warmest rank. From 2010 to 2015 December shared that distinction. Besides December 2010 (2nd coldest) and June 1991 (8th coldest) the only other months since 1981 with coldest 15 placements in the entire period of record since 1659 are Feb 1986 (5th coldest), March 2013 (tied 12th coldest), May 1996 (tied 13th coldest), Sept 1986 (tied 14th coldest), and Dec 1981 (tied 8th coldest). ___________________________________________________________________ Enter the CET forecast contest by end of the day Friday 31st of May without penalty, or on any of the first three days of June with increasing late penalties. _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ ___________ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ EWP contest The contest uses the England and Wales Hadley precip series (1766 to present) as its source. Predict the June 2019 rainfall in mm. 160.1 mm __ 2012 wettest 1766 to 2018 157.1 mm __ 1860 (2nd wettest 1766 to 2018) _67.7 mm __ mean 1989-2018 _66.3 mm __ mean 1981-2010 _16.5 mm __ 2018 driest 1981-2018 (20.2 mm in 1995 previous minimum) __4.3 mm __ 1925 driest 1766-2018 In recent years, 2018 _ 16.5 mm ___ 2017 _ 93.8 mm ___ 2016 _ 114.0 mm ___ 2015 _ 38.8 mm ___ 2014 _ 49.8 mm. - - - - - _______________________________ - - - - - Enter the EWP contest (add your forecast to your CET temp forecast), same deadlines and from 1st to 3rd of June, it's 0.2 point deductions per day late to end of 3rd. Maximum score is 10.0 for closest forecast, all others are scored on a sliding scale by rank down to 0.0 points for least accurate. Duplicate entries lose 0.1 points by order of entry. Good luck in both contests !! _______________________________ > > > >

The EWP tracker was 29mm after 16 days and so is probably at about 30 mm now. The model run shows another 30 mm (average for all regions of EWP) by 28th (15 west and northwest, to 50-60 southeast) and the GFS model shows some showery weather 29th-30th followed by a downpour on the 31st, so almost any guess above 60 mm seems to be in play if the first ten days proves generally accurate. My impression of the CET is similar to MWB above, can't see how it gets much past 11.0 at the rate things are going, no sustained warmth and the odd cooler day should keep it bottled up in the 10 to 11 range for quite some time and the end of the month looks rather chilly. We have only a small number of forecasts lower than 11.5 C.

If we never got back to 11.9 (CET on 1st) this happens about one out of eight times over the 248 years with daily data, although it happened four out of five times from 2007 to 2011 (missing only 2008). The lowest value from which no further gain was made was 9.1 in 1902 (ended 8.9 and always below 9.1 through the month). One that looked similar to this year was May 1932 starting from 11.6 and dropping to 7.3 on the 8th, back to 10.6 by 23rd and finished on 10.5. This is not a good set of summer analogues especially the cases where the warmest day on 1st was not caused by that day being very warm (over 14).

I checked the CET final values and found that 2019 reached "top ten" status for CET increases 15th or 16th to end of month. The actual values have been edited into the tables posted around 17th to 19th.

The GFS keeps returning to the theme of much colder weather returning late in the month, so I took a look back to find any other Mays that ended up below 10 after reaching any value above 10.0 in the period 15th to 23rd from a start that was sub-10 for the first two weeks (one or two milder days were allowed in first three). These are the only Mays that had those features (not many recently because not many Mays fail to break 10.0). Almost all the sub-10 Mays struggled to get very high at any point and were not falling near the end. So that ruled out most possible analogues. The 1975 case is pretty weak in terms of any mid-month warming but with so few cases it looks like one of the better analogues (it was warmer than 10.0 as late as the 29th). Because there were so few similar cases, I added 1891 which warmed up a bit faster mid-month but otherwise matched the profile sought. 1955 was added as another near miss for the criteria. Similar Mays to current guidance (warming mid-month then cooler, sub 10 finish) YEAR __ CET 14th __ Max CET 15-23 ___ finish (1891)___11.1 ______ 11.1 14th _______ 9.5 1894 ____ 9.4 ______ 10.0 18th _______ 9.2 1899 ____ 9.4 ______ 10.0 23rd _______ 9.9 (1955) __10.0 ______ 10.0 14th _______ 9.7 (fell to 8.9 21st-22nd) 1975 ____ 9.8 ______ 10.0 21st _______ 9.9 _________________________________________________ So there hasn't actually been a case where May reached even 10.5 after a cool start then fell below 10 at the end. There have been several cases where May had a warmer start than this year and fell from above 10.5 on 14th to below 10. In 1923 the running CET continued to fall from a high point of 13.8 on 4th to 10.2 on 14th and 9.2 at end of the month.

The last May to average below the 1981-2010 normal of 11.7 (or 1961-90 of 11.2) was 2015 (10.8). In general, most questions about recent CET values and averages or extremes can be solved by looking at the introductory post to these threads (which is always following the same format). The CET values for each year since 1981 are posted along with various 30-year averages.

This table shows the rank of the coldest months of each name in past 50 years (1969 to 2018) and it shows that May 1996 was about middle of the pack in terms of ranking or differential from coldest. Extending the period back to 1940 only nets five colder months including the most recent coldest month, Feb 1947. MONTH __ Coldest __ min since 1969 __ rank __ differential __ colder 1940-68 JAN ______ -3.1 1795 __ -0.4 1979 ____ 17th ___ 2.7 _______ -2.1 1963 (5th) FEB ______ -1.9 1947 __ -1.1 1986 _____ 5th ___ 0.8 _______ coldest was 1947 MAR ______ 1.0 1674 ___ 2,7 2013 ____t12th ___ 1.7 _______ none APR ______ 4.7 1701,1837 _5.8 1986 ____t18th ___ 1.1 _______ none MAY ______ 8.5 1698 ___ 9.1 1996 ____ t13th ___ 0.6 _______ none JUN ______11.5 1675 __ 11.8 1972 _____ t2nd ___ 0.3 _______ none JUL ______ 13.4 1816 __14.7 1980,88 __ t35th ___ 1.3 _______ 14.0 1965 (t 11th) AUG ______12,9 1912 __13.7 1986 ____ t16th ___ 0.8 _______ 13.5 1956 (t 5th) SEP ______ 10.5 1807*__11.3 1986 ____ t14th ___ 0.8 _______ 10.7 1952 (6th) OCT _______ 5.3 1740 ___ 7.8 1974,92__t26th ___ 2.5 _______ none NOV _______ 2.3 1782 ___ 4.1 1985 ___ t28th ___ 1.8 _______ none DEC _______-0.8 1890 ___-0.7 2010 ____ 2nd ___ 0.1 _______ none median ________ 1789 ______ 1986 ____ 15th ___ 0.95 ______ none (7/12) ________________________________________ *and 1674,1675,1694 The most remote top 20 cold months are October and November. For October, the most recent was 1919 (7.4, t16th coldest) and for November it was 1915 (2.8, 2nd coldest). Nov 1919, 1923 were also tied 8th coldest at 3.3. Note that 1986 has four of the twelve coldest months in modern times and the year starting Nov 1985 has five. Half of them fall in the span of 1980 to 1988 and 7/12 in the span 1979 to 1988.

The 12z GFS run would suggest a CET rising gradually next week to perhaps 10.5-11.0 by Friday 17th, then sliding back down into the 9's before the end of the run on 25th. Not saying that later part is very reliable at 10-15 days, but it would certainly bring a very cold average into play. If that backs off to something more ordinary, chances are the month will hover in the 10.5-11.0 range for most of the second half. That would still be colder than most of our forecasts.

Top annual scores in the EWP contest ... 1. Reef ____________39.7 2. Mulzy ___________37.9 3. seaside60 _______ 37.8 4. BornfromtheVoid __ 37.6 5. BlastfromthePast __ 34.9 6. Feb91Blizzard ____ 34.2 7. Daniel* __________ 32.6 8. weather-history ____32.3 9. Roger J Smith _____31.8 10. CheesePuffScott __ 31.7 11. J10 _____________31.5 12. ThunderyWSh ____ 31.2 13. Stargazer ________31.0 14. DAVID SNOW ____29.9 15. Norrance ________29.6 16. EdStone ________ 29.1 17. Midlands Ice Age _ 28.3 _______________________________________________ Excel file of all scoring below ... EWP20182019F.xlsx

As mentioned above,, Hadley EWP posted as 46.4 mm. I am working on the updated scoring tables, will post some updated annual contest results soon. The highest scoring forecasts for April are (1) DiagonalRedLine _ 47.0 mm ____10.0 points (2) Roger J Smith _ 45.0 mm _______ 9.8 points (3) Sleety ____45.0 mm (2nd entry) __9.7 points (t4) Daniel* _____50.0 mm (1d late) __ 9.2 points (t4) Earthshine __ 52.0 mm _________ 9.2 points (6) Ed Stone ____55.0 mm _________ 9.0 points (7) Feb91Blizzard 55.0 mm (2nd entry)_8.9 points (8) DAVID SNOW 55.0 mm (3rd entry)_ 8.8 points (9) AWD _______ 58.0 mm _________8.3 points (10) seaside60 __ 58.0 mm (1d late, 2nd) 8.0 points (11) virtualsphere_59.0 mm __________ 7.9 points (12) stargazer ___59.0 mm (2nd entry) _ 7.8 points ___________________________________________________________ Only two other forecasts besides the two at 45.0 mm were below the actual value (BFTP had 25.0 mm and Emmett Garland 18.0 mm). Note on scoring, in this contest, you lose 0.1 point for order of entry but tied errors on both sides have tied scores (no examples this month). Notes: Scoring is also reduced by 0.2 per late day, so tenth place forecast lost 0.3 in total. Scoring then resumes as various ranks are filled in, the 8.0 took the place of 8.1 so the next score down is 7.9 ... because the 50.0 mm forecast was a late entry, it tied in points with the next lowest error of 52.0 mm. An annual update and the link to the excel scoring file will be posted in a while.

Looks like another small one about to go tornadic near downtown Amarillo, the southeast cell of the two now following the tor warned cell (has gone wind warned). Contacts tell me there is frequent thunder in several directions. I told them to hit the bathroom for a while and let this do its thing. (they are storm avoiders rather than chasers)

My contacts are on the southeast edge of the latest tor warned cell in northwest Amarillo. This is a view of it (credit Mark Fournier, 2105z)

Just taken in west Amarillo looking w.s.w. at small wind-warned cells. Photo credit Connie Fournier. 2035z

I'm in touch with some friends who have pulled off the road in west Amarillo and they are taking shots of clouds in various directions as requested, so far, just looks like your typical overcast day with jumbled black, grey and white without much ominous structure (yet). I think the cell now west of Plainview is headed n.n.e. for east Amarillo (near KAMA) in about an hour. Outflow boundary from that might produce the eventual tornadic cells to cross I-40 a little east of there in about 2 hours.

UPDATE on the THREE ROBOTIC FORECASTERS Dec 2018 __________________________________ Jan 2019 __________________________ Feb 2019 _______________ ____FORECAST _ error __ rank __ points ________ FCST __ error __ rank __ points ________ FCST __ error __ rank __ points Consensus_ 5.0 __ -1.9 _ 32 to 32 _ 52.3 _________3.5 ___ -0.5 ___16 to 18 _ 75.7 to 78.6 ___ 4.0 ___ -2.7 _ 33 to 37 _ 48.3 to 54.1 1989-2018*_4.9 __ -2.0 _ 33 to 33 _ 50.8 _________4.7 ___ +0.7 ___21 to 23 _ 68.6 to 71.4 ___ 4.9 ___ -1.8 _ 14 to 14 _ 81.3 1981-2010__4.6 __ -2.3 _ 42 to 44 _ 33.8 to 36.9 ___4.4 ___ +0.4 ___14 to 15 _ 80.0 to 81.4 ___ 4.4 ___ -2.3 _ 17 to 19 _ 74.2 to 77.0 March 2019 _________________________________ April 2019 _________________________ Average (5 months) ____FORECAST _ error __ rank __ points _________FCST __ error __ rank __ points _______ abs err __ rank ____ points consensus _ 6.9 __ --0.9 _ 29 to 33 _ 48.4 to 54.8 __ 8.4 ___ --0.7 __ 24 to 28 _ 55.9 to 62.3 __ 1.35 ___ 27 to 30 __ 56.1 to 60.4 1989-2018 _ 6.8 __ --1.0 _ 34 to 35 _ 46.2 to 47.8 ___8.8 ___ --0.3 ___ 9 to 13 _ 80.3 to 86.9 __ 1.16 ___ 22 to 24 __ 65.4 to 67.6 1981-2010 _ 6.6 __ --1.2 _ 39 to 39 _ 39.7 _________8.5 ___ --0.6 __ 20 to 23 _ 63.9 to 68.6 __ 1.36 ___ 26 to 28 __ 57.7 to 60.1 ____________________________________________________________________________________________ The two normals did a little better than our consensus in April, and the most recent 30 year normal continues to outperform either consensus or 1981-2010 so far. The average error (not absolute) of our forecasts is now -1.35 deg, and as a group we have been below the actual outcome five times in a row. The two normals were below the outcomes in four of five months and above in January. May won't change things very much as our consensus is just a bit above recent normal values.

From the table of entries, this appears to be the top CET scoring zone, subject to confirmation by J10: Fcst ___ Forecaster (order of entry breaks ties) 9.1 ___ Sundog (51) 9.2 ___ Weather26 (1) 9.2 ___ nn2013 (13) 9.0 ___ The PIT (21) 9.2 ___ EdStone (28, 4.5*) 9.0 ___ Summer Blizzard (35) 9.3 ___ seaside 60 (42) 8.9 ___ DAVID SNOW (44) 9.4 ___ JeffC (12) 8.8 ___ Stargazer (25) 8.8 ___ AWD (40) 8.8 ___ Duncan McAlister (L1-3) 8.8 ___ Born From the Void (L1-4)

Site has just updated, 8.8 to 6th, which is 1.1 below 61-90 normal value and 1.8 below 1981-2010 average to 6th. Days this month listed as 11.9, 10.2, 8.5, 7.1, 6.9 and 8.1. Cum CET therefore were 11.9, 11.1, 10.2, 9.4, 8.9 and 8.8. all caught up now.

I have just seen 9.1 (from 9.07) posted as final value for CET. No reliable EWP yet.

Would say a chase will develop from around KAMA (which is east of the city a bit) east on I-40 towards Clinton OK. Hoping it gets clear of the Amarillo metro to make it safer to follow especially given the working population probably on high alert to leave early so afternoon rush could occur with storm warnings rather than at its usual time. Think the most likely locations for damaging tornados might be Pampa to Wheeler south to Clarendon to Wellington TX -- approx 30-50 east of KAMA. Childress may be in line later, eventually Clinton to nw of Wichita Falls by evening.

I looked in at the EWP site and it has gremlins at work, the monthly total for April is actually listed now but the daily values listed are all 4.24 mm from 4th to 30th giving a much higher total than will eventually be confirmed, I believe. This makes me think somebody is now trying to update the files but perhaps not the usual person. But patience, it's just a question of that person returning from holiday time, I would suspect.

It opens properly in google chrome but not internet explorer (I have found anyway).

Somebody went on holiday, we were waiting almost ten days for CET some other month, not sure when but after Jan 2018 as I recall for the EWP, because it prompted me to change from Hadley to another set of EWP numbers, we had only just started into the EWP contest when that happened. Things will get back to normal perhaps later today. Since then I went back to the Hadley EWP (which is also late updating).

The CET is probably somewhere around 8.5 or 9.0 to this point.