Roger J Smith

Here is the rather short list of all consecutive years that had a summer month of 18.0 or higher ... 1975-76 (Aug 75 and Jul 76 both 18.7) 1989-90 (Jul 89 was 18.2, Aug 90 was 18.0) 1994-95 (Jul 94 was 18.0, Jul 95 18.6 and Aug 95 19.2) (other close calls with 17.7 the minimum required) 1899-1901 (Aug 1899 was 17.8, Jul 1900 was 17.7, Jul 1901 was 18.0) 1933-34 (Jul 1933 was 17.8, Jul 1934 was 18.2) 2013-14 (Jul 2013 was 18.3, Jul 2014 was 17.7) and if you drop the criterion to 17.6 that lets in a few more such as 1983-84 and 2003-04.

The June EWP has been confirmed at 115.0 mm so nothing to change in the scoring excel file posted on 2nd. The annual contest leaders then are Reef ________________ 55.4 Born from the Void _____ 51.7 seaside60 ____________48.9 weather-history ________46.5 Feb1991blizzard _______46.4 daniel* _______________45.0 Blast From the Past _____42.9 Mulzy ________________42.1 CheesePuffScott _______ 41.8 J10 _________________ 41.6 DAVID SNOW _________41.3 Stargazer ____________ 41.1 Ed Stone ____________ 40.0 Godber1 _____________39.3 Norrance ____________ 38.1 Don _________________37.1 DiagonalRedLine ______ 37.0 The PIT ______________36.1 DR(S)NO ____________ 35.4 (the full excel file is here, I did fix up one minor error, that being the total score is out of 70, not 60 as the other file said) ... also I have added in some later July forecasts that were not in the version posted earlier. EWP20182019June.xlsx

The ten driest months of July to follow a 100 mm + (wet) June were: YEAR ___ June EWP __ July EWP 1863 _____ 109.4 _______ 29.3 1982 _____ 129.1 _______ 33.9 2016 _____ 114.0 _______ 43.6 1971 _____ 110.7 _______ 44.7 1833 _____ 107.9 _______ 47.8 1795, 1997 _101.8, 132.2 _ 53.5 1998 ______ 121.4 ______ 54.4 1769 ______ 122.8 ______ 56.9 1770 ______ 118.1 ______ 63.0 Interesting that half of these were relatively recent (1971 to 2016). The average July rainfall following a 100+ June is about 90 mm and the average for those not in the list above is 101 mm.

The provisional value for June EWP is 115 mm. This is the scoring that will likely be maintained after any adjustments are made to that figure. Reef continues to lead the annual contest, Godber1 was almost right on the money for June and may end up even closer when they release a final value on the 5th. I will adjust this scoring table then (might just do it by editing this post, so check the link if you don't see a new post later). EWP20182019H.xlsx

July CET 1981-2010 averages, and extremes 1772-2018 with running CET extremes date _ CET _ (cum) ____ Max, Min 1772-2018 ________ Running CET extremes 1772-2018 01 __ 15.9 __ 15.9 ___ 24.6 (2015) __ 10.4 (1773) _____ 24.6 (2015) __ 10.4 (1773) 02 __ 15.9 __ 15.9 ___ 22.8 (1976) __ 11.3 (1821) _____ 22.9 (1976) __ 11.0 (1907) 03 __ 15.9 __ 15.9 ___ 24.6 (1976) __ 10.1 (1907) _____ 23.4 (1976) __ 10.7 (1907) 04 __ 16.0 __ 15.9 ___ 24.7 (1976) __ 10.0 (1965) _____ 23.8 (1976) __ 11.2 (1907) 05 __ 16.4 __ 16.0 ___ 24.0 (1852) __ 10.7 (1920) _____ 23.8 (1976) __ 11.2 (1907) 06 __ 16.3 __ 16.1 ___ 23.3 (1976) __ 11.3 (1877) _____ 23.7 (1976) __ 11.6 (1907) 07 __ 16.3 __ 16.1 __ 22.6 (1923,1976) _ 11.1 (1877) ___23.5 (1976) __ 11.6 (1907) 08 __ 16.6 __ 16.2 __ 21.4 (1870,1976) _ 10.6 (1823) ___23.3 (1976) __ 11.5 (1907) 09 __ 16.3 __ 16.2 ___ 21.6 (1921) __ 11.0 (1856) _____ 22.8 (1976) __ 11.6 (1907) 10 __ 16.6 __ 16.2 ___ 22.1 (1921) __ 11.2 (1993) _____ 22.3 (1976) __ 11.6 (1907) 11 __ 16.7 __ 16.3 ___ 22.6 (1783) ___ 9.4 (1888) _____ 22.0 (1976) __ 11.6 (1907) 12 __ 16.5 __ 16.3 ___ 23.7 (1923) __ 11.0 (1840) _____ 21.9 (1976) __ 11.7 (1907) 13 __ 16.6 __ 16.3 ___ 24.5 (1808) __ 10.2 (1840) _____ 21.6 (1976) __ 11.8 (1907) 14 __ 16.8 __ 16.3 ___ 24.4 (1808) __ 11.7 (1961) _____ 21.4 (1976) __ 12.2 (1907) 15 __ 17.0 __ 16.4 ___ 23.7 (1825) __ 11.5 (1883) _____ 21.2 (1976) __ 12.4 (1879) 16 __ 16.8 __ 16.4 ___ 22.7 (2003) __ 11.5 (1823) _____ 21.0 (1976) __ 12.5 (1879) 17 __ 16.3 __ 16.4 ___ 22.3 (1834) __ 11.0 (1892) _____ 20.7 (1976) __ 12.6 (1879) 18 __ 16.5 __ 16.4 ___ 23.3 (1825) __ 10.1 (1863) _____ 20.6 (1976) __ 12.8 (1879) 19 __ 16.9 __ 16.4 ___ 24.5 (2006) __ 10.6 (1892) _____ 20.5 (1976) __ 12.9 (1879) 20 __ 17.2 __ 16.5 ___ 23.5 (2016) ___ 8.7 (1836) _____ 20.3 (1976) __ 13.0 (1879) 21 __ 16.9 __ 16.5 ___ 23.1 (1868) __ 11.3 (1902) _____ 20.0 (1976) __ 13.0 (1879) 22 __ 16.9 __ 16.5 ___ 23.2 (1868) __ 11.5 (1902) _____ 19.8 (1976) __ 13.0 (1879) 23 __ 16.9 __ 16.5 ___ 22.4 (1989) __ 10.1 (1843) _____ 19.6 (1976) __ 13.1 (1879) 24 __ 16.6 __ 16.5 ___ 23.9 (1818) __ 11.1 (1843) _____ 19.5 (2006) __ 13.1 (1879) 25 __ 17.0 __ 16.6 ___ 22.7 (2006) __ 10.9 (1920) _____ 19.6 (2006) __ 13.1 (1879) 26 __ 17.2 __ 16.6 ___ 23.2 (2006) __ 11.0 (1884) _____ 19.8 (2006) __ 13.1 (1879) 27 __ 17.2 __ 16.6 ___ 22.5 (2018) __ 10.6 (1867) _____ 19.8 (2006) __ 13.1 (1879) 28 __ 17.4 __ 16.6 ___ 23.7 (1948) __ 11.8 (1886,1891) __19.8 (2006) __ 13.2 (1879) 29 __ 17.7 __ 16.7 ___ 25.2 (1948) __ 11.0 (1816) _____ 19.8 (2006) __ 13.4 (1879) 30 __ 17.4 __ 16.7 ___ 23.1 (1948) __ 10.6 (1786) _____ 19.8 (2006) __ 13.4 (1816) 31 __ 17.2 __ 16.7 __ 23.4 (1943,1995) __ 10.9 (1841) ___19.7 (2006) __ 13.4 (1816) _________________________________________________

This past June ranks in terms of range of CET means from low (10.2 on 11th) to high (21.7 on 29th). -- 11.5 deg. Only these Junes had larger ranges since 1772: 1936 __ 13.6 1941 __ 13.1 1817 __ 13.0 1947 __ 12.6 1986 __ 12.5 1820. 1914 __ 12.4 2011 __ 12.0 1773, 1903, 1953, 1989, 2001 __ 11.9 1772, 1878, 1975 __ 11.8 1844, 1850 __ 11.7 2009 __ 11.6 1795, 2019 __ 11.5 (tied 20th) ========================================================================

I wasn't there but the stats seem to suggest that a very unpleasant month made a break for mediocrity and ended up just plain weird with its almost record heat tacked on at the end. It was a month that had a little of everything and a lot of rain.

REPORT ON CONSENSUS and NORMALS SCORING for JUNE Dec 2018 _____________________________ Jan 2019 _____________________ Feb 2019 __________ ____FORECAST _ error __ rank __ points ____ FCST __ error__ rank _ points _____ FCST __ error __ rank __ points Consensus_ 5.0 __ -1.9 _ 32 to 32 _ 52.3 _____3.5 ___ -0.5 __16 to 18 _ 75.7 to 78.6 _ 4.0 __ -2.7 _ 33 to 37 _ 48.3 to 54.1 1989-2018*_4.9 __ -2.0 _ 33 to 33 _ 50.8 _____4.7 ___ +0.7 __21 to 23 _ 68.6 to 71.4 _ 4.9 __ -1.8 _ 14 to 14 _ 81.3 1981-2010__4.6 __ -2.3 _ 42 to 44 _ 33.8 to 36.9 _4.4 _ +0.4 __14 to 15 _ 80.0 to 81.4 _ 4.4 __ -2.3 _ 17 to 19 _ 74.2 to 77.0 March 2019 _____________________________ April 2019 _____________________ May 2019 ____FORECAST _ error __ rank __ points _____FCST_error _ rank __ points _______ FCST _ error _ rank __ points consensus _ 6.9 _ --0.9 _ 29 to 33 _ 48.4 to 54.8 _8.4 _ --0.7 _ 24 to 28 _ 55.9 to 62.3 _ 12.3 _ +1.2 _ 28 to 31 _ 50.0-55.0 1989-2018 _ 6.8 __ --1.0 _ 34 to 35 _ 46.2 to 47.8 _8.8 _ --0.3 _ 9 to 13 _ 80.3 to 86.9 __ 12.0 _ +0.9 _ 17 to 20 _ 68.3 to 73.3 1981-2010 _ 6.6 __ --1.2 _ 39 to 39 _ 39.7 ______8.5 _ --0.6 _ 20 to 23 _ 63.9 to 68.6 __ 11.7 _ +0.6 _ 11 to 11 _ 83.3 June 2019 ________________________________________________________Average (7 months) ____FORECAST __ error __ rank __ points _____________________________ abs err __ rank ___ points consensus _ 15.0 _ +0.8 _ 27 to 31 _ 48.1 to 55.0 _________________________ 1.24 __ 27 to 31 __ 54.1 to 59.0 1989-2018 _ 14.6 _ +0.4 _ 11 to 15 _ 75.8 to 82.7 _________________________ 1.01 __ 19 to 22 __ 67.4 to 70.6 1981-2010 _ 14.5 _ +0.3 __ 6 to 10 _ 84.4 to 91.3 _________________________ 1.10 __ 21 to 24 __ 65.6 to 68.3 ____________________________________________________________________________________________ Our group effort in June was once again outdone by the two normals and this leaves the contest year average score significantly lower for consensus than either normal, with the most recent period of 1989-2018 still faring better than 1981-2010 although the gap was reduced in June. ================================================================ From the table of entries, these are the top scoring forecasts: Fcst ___ err __ Forecaster (order of entry) 14.2 ___ 0.0 __ Stationary Front (31) ________ 14.3 __ +0.1 __ nn2013 (4) ________________ 14.3 __ +0.1 __ Thundershine (23) __________ 14.4 __ +0.2 __ Roger J Smith (17) __________ 14.4 __ +0.2 __ Quicksilver1989 (38) _________ 14.5 __ +0.3 __ summer blizzard (6) _________ 14.5 __ +0.3 __ DR(S)NO (11) _____________ 13.9 __ --0.3 __ DiagonalRedLine (12) _______ 13.9 __ --0.3 __ Timmytour (30) _____________ 13.9 __ --0.3 __ B87 (42) __________________ 13.8 __ --0.4 __ SunnyDazee (3)____________ 14.6 __ +0.4 __ Midlands Ice Age (15) ________ 14.6 __ +0.4 __ sundog (47) ________________ 13.8 __ --0.4 __ Godber1 (48) _______________ 14.6 __ +0.4 __ daniel* (54) ________________ ===================================================== EWP stalled at 115 mm after 29 days, not much likely to be added on 30th, will post official results but likely to be this top twelve: 1. Godber1 (116 mm) 2. I Rem Atl 252 (110 mm) 3. Wx 26 (97.7 mm) 4. B87 (95 mm) 5. LetItSnow! (94 mm) 6. virtualsphere (92 mm) 7. nn2013 and BornFromTheVoid (88 mm) 9. brmbrmcar (81.6 mm) 10. reef and J10 (80 mm) 12. Kirkcaldy Weather (78.4 mm)

Table of entries to CET and EWP contests CET __ EWP __ Forecaster ________________ CET __ EWP __ Forecaster 22.0 __200.0__ Lettucing Gutted (8) __________16.9 __ 72.0 __ JeffC (14) ______________ 19.2 __ ----- __ Earthshine (39) ______________16.9 __ 30.0 __ The PIT (30) ____________ 18.7 __ 43.0 __ stewfox (22) ________________16.9 __ ----- __ Man with Beard (41) ______ _______________________________________16.9 __ 69.8 __ average for 1989-2018 18.4 __ 14.4 __ ChrisBell-notthe wxman (36) ___16.9 __ ----- __ damianslaw (32) _________ 18.3 __ 55.5 __ CheesepuffScott (7, 23.5) _____ 16.9 __ 91.0 __ Norrance (54) ___________ 18.2 __ 75.0 __ Polar Gael (12) _____________ 16.8 __ 73.0 __ Let It Snow! (4) __________ 18.2 __ 34.0 __ emmett garland (21) _________ 16.8 __ 67.0 __ Stationary Front (43) _______ 18.2 __ 98.0 __ mizzle (40) _________________16.8 __ 84.0 __ Godber1 (47) _____________ 18.1 __ ----- __ matty007 (10) _______________16.8 __ 69.8 __ J10 (57) _________________ 18.0 __ 45.4 __ Roger J Smith (19) __________ 16.8 __ 71.0 __ jonboy (L1-2) _______ 17.9 __ 53.0 __ virtualsphere (13) ___________ 16.7 __ 98.0 __ I Remember Atlantic 252 (16) ___________ 17.9 __ 57.3 __ brmbrmcar (34) _____________ 16.7 __ ----- __ summer blizzard (25) __________________ 17.9 __ 15.0 __ Big daddy 49 (49) ____________16.7 __118.0__ Blast from the Past (27) _______________ 17.7 __ 42.0 __ Feb1991blizzard (42) _________16.7 __ ----- __ Duncan McAlister (52) _________________ _______________________________________ 16.7 __ 67.3 __ average for 1981-2010________________ _______________________________________ 16.7 __ 64.0 __ Joneseye (L2-2) _____________________ 17.5 __ 70.0 __ DiagonalRedLine (11) _________16.6 __ 61.0 __ stargazer (33) _______________________ 17.5 __ 54.0 __ Leo97t (17) _________________16.6 __ 70.0 __ davehsug (55) _______________________ 17.5 __ ----- __ Quicksilver1989 (46) __________16.5 __ 70.4 __ Kirkcaldy Weather (23) ________________ 17.4 __ 48.0 __ B87 (15) ___________________16.5 __ ----- __ snowray (37) _________________________ 17.4 __ 74.0 __ Ed Stone (35) _______________16.4 __ ----- __ Jonathan F. (9) ________________________ 17.4 __ 54.0 __ seaside60 (L2-1) ____________ 16.4 __ ----- __ ProlongedSnowLover (L1-1) ______________ 17.3 __ ----- __ dancerwithwings (20) _________ 16.3 __ ----- __ Kentish Man (L2-3) _____________________ 17.3 __ 42.0 __ daniel* (51) _________________16.2 __ 60.0 __ weather-history (28) ____________________ 17.2 __ ----- __ Summer Sun (44) ____________ 16.2 __ 77.0 __ timmytour (29) _________________________ 17.2 __ 60.0 __ Don (53) ___________________16.0 __110.0__ nn2013 (2) ___________________________ 17.1 __ 73.1 __ Midlands Ice Age (31) ________ 16.0 __ ----- __ Walsall Wood Snow (24) _________________ 17.1 __ 44.0 __ DAVID SNOW (45) ___________16.0 __ 90.0 __ syed2878 (26) ________________________ 17.1 __ 45.0 __ Reef (50) ___________________15.9 __107.0__ Sunny Dazee (1) ______________________ 17.1 __ 77.0 __ Mulzy (56) __________________15.7 __120.0__ Weather26 (5) ________________________ 17.0 __100.0__ Bobd29 (3) __________________15.7 __100.0__ Relativistic (38) _______________________ 17.0 __ 65.0 __ DR(S)NO (18) _______________ 13.7 __400.0__ Thundershine (6) ______________________ 17.0 __ 80.0 __ BornFromtheVoid (48) ________ 17.0 __ ----- __ Andrew R (58) _______________ 17.0 __ 70.0 __ consensus _________________ __ 58 on-time entries, plus two late (one day), and three that are two days late, __ __ 63 total forecasts, consensus 17.0 __ ================================================================================== EWP forecasts in order __ 400 Tshine ... 200 LG ... 120 wx26 ... 118 BFTP ... 110 nn ... 107 sdaz ...100 Bobd, Rel ... 98 IRA252, miz 91 Norr ... 90 syed ... 84 Godb ... 80 BFTV ... 77 ttour, Mulzy ... 75 PG ... 74 EdS ... 73.1 MIA ... 73 LIS ... 72 JeffC 71 jon* ... 70.4 KW ... 70 DRL, dave, con ... 69.8 J10, 69.8 1989-2018 67.3 1981-2010 67 SF ... 65 DR(S)NO ... 64 Jones** 61 star ... 60 w-h, Don ... 57.3 brm ... 55.5 CPS ... 54 Leo, sea**.. 53 vir ... 48 B87 ... 45.4 RJS ... 45 Reef 44 DS ... 43 stew ... 42 Feb, dan ... 34 emm g ... 30 PIT ... 15 Bigd ... 14.4 ChrisB _____________________ 45 on time entries, three late * or ** (* = days) __ 48 in total __ consensus 70.0 mm.

Working on the table of entries, have it ready to post at midnight or so ... These CET values are not yet taken (from 15.7 to 19.2, nothing outside that range yet except 22.0 and 13.7) 15.8, 16.1, 16.3, 17.6, 17.8, 18.5, 18.6, 18.8, 18.9, 19.0, 19.1

So for the record, Heathrow and Northolt reported 34.0 C on Saturday 29th. The 576 dm thickness contour passed through parts of East Anglia on its way to its current location in central Europe. In France, a 40 deg reading came as close to Paris as Conneré northeast of Le Mans, with other readings of 41 C in central France, and it was 43.2 at Zaragoza, Spain. There were humidex readings as high as 49 at Ruffiac southeast of Bordeaux and 47 in the Le Mans region. At 00z Sunday 30th, the core of the upper high (596 dm) had retreated back into northwest Africa but the 576 dm thickness wave was as far north as northern Holland, while a local 580 dm max was noted in northeast France. Safe to say that this was more of a memorable event on the continent than in the UK, but at least it broke the upper air record value. If we get a reload of these synoptics with perhaps weaker surface flows (especially sourced from the east) it may be a different story. For a reload I would suggest late July into mid-August as the most likely time frame, chances are certainly not high but it may not be the only (near or actual) heat wave of summer 2019. Storm production was fairly weak, but some parts of eastern Ireland had a good display of lightning earlier Saturday.

Whatever Northolt recorded, I also saw a report that Heathrow had a maximum of 34.0. Honourable mention should go to Ben Sainsbury at 34.1 who also said Heathrow Saturday. Of all the forecasts that were close to 34, I think that one had the least total variance in terms of temperature, location and timing. From my table of entries, these are the forecasts that came within half a degree of 34 (and I will keep an eye on developments in case the Metoffice comes up with a different number affecting this outcome) Some others deserve credit for predicting these close temperatures at either Northolt or Heathrow on Sat 29. FORECASTS WITHIN 0.5 of 34.0 Sir Mim __________________34.5 ___ Gravesend ____________Sat 29 Snow Queen One __________34.5 ___ Heathrow _____________Sat 29 Dean E __________________ 34.5 ___ Gosport Fleetlands _____Thu 27 snowrye _________________ 34.5 ___ Gravesend ____________ Stargazer ________________ 34.4 ___ Wisley _______________ Fri 28 Mark Wheeler _____________34.4 ___ Northolt ______________ Sat 29 tesaro ___________________ 34.4 ___ Cambridge Cambs _____ Sat 29 Feb1991Blizzard __________ 34.4 ___ Richmond (Gr Lon) _____ Sat 29 nn2013 __________________34.3 ___ Heathrow _____________ Fri 28 mike5900 ________________ 34.3 ___ Dorset _______________ Thu 27 cheshire snow ____________ 34.2 ___ Stoke on Trent _________ Sat 29 Ben Sainsbury ____________ 34.1 ___ Heathrow _____________ Sat 29 shuggee _________________ 34.0 ___ Cambs _______________ bazooka bob ______________33.9 ___ Wiltshire ______________ Fri 28 bybo 1999 ________________33.9 ___ Gravesend ____________ Sat 29 zmstorm _________________ 33.7 ___ Gravesend ____________Sat 29 nicknacknoo ______________ 33.7 mother nature rocks ________ 33.7 ___ Heathrow _____________Fri 28 stainesbloke ______________ 33.6 ___ Heathrow _____________Sat 29 spurskevin _______________ 33.6 ___ Gravesend ____________ Sat 29 Another Kent clipper ________33.5 ___ Bury St Edmunds _______Fri (30) -- assume means 28th I could add that our group consensus was pretty good considering the five or six day lead time, the median forecast was only 1.1 deg higher at 35.1 and it was also for Heathrow on Saturday 29th by majority choices. That is probably better than most computer models did from last weekend when the contest entries were gathered. Of our 121 forecasts, 34 were too low and 86 were too high (one was spot on). Counting two that were disqualified for predicting a Sunday max, that changed to 34 and 88. As a group we were not that far off, as individuals some of us were rather wide of the mark.

00z CMC analysis shows 576 dm thickness to just north of London and various models predict it will remain over southeast England to mid-afternoon. Core of upper high while somewhat eroded is over northeast France now. Heavy to severe storms have developed along quasi-stationary frontal boundary in southeast Ireland. This may eventually spread further east although motion at present is northerly. Satellite imagery shows a weak remnant of frontal boundary further east that is separate from the above and into the Bristol and eastern Wales region, this could become a separate focus for other storms to develop later. Motion will be very slow to east for most of the morning then somewhat faster by afternoon. Interesting day ahead.

Bravo, Costa del Haggis.

As many said before the spell began, it was an unusual setup. I guess the lesson learned at all levels of forecasting would be something like this ... if the regional wind is a strong factor (over and above your standard sea breeze mechanics) then the uppers may not fully function at the surface. I don't think anyone would claim that the North Sea had a direct influence on temperatures in Wales or the southwest, but even there this regional wind was strong enough to moderate the potential heat. If the gradient had been similar but half the strength, temperatures might have risen above 30 for the past two days (in those areas at least). So tomorrow will be interesting as the gradients are weaker and the flow is more south to southwest. This time it could be cloud spoiling the party for some locations. Bet we will see some 33-35 readings though.

Well, I was in Las Vegas one day when it was 47 C and that business about a dry heat -- forget about it, you could get a second degree burn off a doorknob in that sort of weather.

I read elsewhere that Camborne had a new UK record 850 mb temp of 24.8 which shattered the previous 22.4 at Herstmonceux set 5 Aug 2003. (tweet from World Climate Service). (disclaimer -- unofficial)

The 12z 500mb analysis shows that the 576 dm thickness contour had reached Bristol from where it ran southeast to about the Isle of Wight and offshore into northeast France. Many parts of France were under 582 dm thickness. The heat intensified there to reach all-time June record highs (44 to 45 in lower Rhone valley, still some 40 readings in central France, will edit in the exact numbers from later reports). The very high dew point phenomenon (some 24, 25) has continued with the zone now oriented from Normandy south-southeast into the central Loire valley and towards the east of Bordeaux. Some humidex values are as high as 47 C. Although it has warmed up slightly in some western counties of England today, it appears that the one chance for anything truly hot will come tomorrow when the flow will be south then southwest. However, a fair amount of cloud has developed in the frontal zones and I'm wondering if this may translate into breeding grounds for severe storms, most likely areas would be Wales, Severn valley and western portions of Thames valley. The contest median was 35 for Heathrow tomorrow, so after all the underachieving of this warm spell so far (in the UK) it would be ironic if that turned out accurate after all. No reason why it couldn't with the highest uppers over the southeast and the breeze not sourced from the North Sea any longer. (note: Shannon Ireland hit 28.4 on Thursday, some reports of similar temps west of Dublin today as the wind there became southerly).

I think to be fair to contest entrants, what anyone predicted for Friday or Saturday remains to be tested and gives no indication of what any individual forecaster thought yesterday or today might have produced. A few entries did mention Thursday and I think most of those were further west so they showed some understanding of the process at work, even if those forecasts are all going to be a few degrees too warm. There's no telling what will actually happen when the east wind shuts down and a southerly flow begins to take control. Brest which is hardly a hot spot normally has a current humidex value of 42 C. It seems like the containment of the heat in northern France is allowing very high dew points to pool but when that dam breaks and the heat can move further north, it may then begin to reduce the dew points so I would look for something like 34/22 values in south central England.

Today's report sounds a bit like a broken record, 599 dm high over France, 582 dm thickness in some areas, with the 576 dm thickness contour reaching 50N on the 12z (CMC) analysis. 570 dm was about halfway through Ireland which is currently getting a bit more of the warming effects of a gradually turning southeast flow. Hottest readings in France are once again south-central and noted 41 C at L'hospitalet with a 42 C in northeast Spain. In northern France, that pooling of high dew points has now spread quite close to the Channel. There are remarkable 24 and 25 C dew points at various locations across northern France although the average is low 20s. This produces humidex readings as high as 47 C in the Le Mans region. Having been exposed to this in Ontario (35 C temps, 24 C dp) I know how enervating that feels. Fortunately the women's football quarter final match involving England is at a somewhat cooler Le Havre (31/20) but it's still going to be dangerously oppressive there. None of this has really crossed the Channel yet, all we can say so far is that the regional easterly is slowly warming up and producing some mid 20s at favoured locations like the Welsh coast and north Somerset. I don't think this will have much effect on how Friday and Saturday play out when the easterly flow gets shut down by a developing south to southwest flow straight out of the hot land mass and across the much narrower Channel.

Tomorrow will be a halfway house between today's North Sea domination and Friday's French heat invasion. The cooler surface flow will be pushed back to about a B'ham to Luton to Ipswich arc, north of that it will likely just warm slightly over today. West and south of that it should reach 27 to 29 C in many areas. Parts of Somerset and Wales could benefit from being under the best upper support and reach 30-31 C. On Friday I think 33 to 36 C readings will prevail in many areas away from sea breeze territory and even there it could be 28 C. Saturday will see the heat more intense in the southeast and could produce a slightly higher reading (ECM gives 23 C 850 mb over London, that should mix down to about 35-36 C with a south-southwest wind ideal for heat generation, even a touch of downsloping into greater London with that). I don't think today's North Sea influence will really linger into the hot spell in any meaningful way, it's not going to take long for the warmer air mass to mix down its potential heat and with any sort of sustained sunshine the results may overperform.

The first 40 C reading has appeared at Clermont-Ferrand (south central France -- latest reading 40.6) and it's 38 C within 100 km of Paris. The 576 dm thickness contour has reached a line from just north of Paris to about L'Orient on the Atlantic coast. A small bubble of 582 dm thickness shows up in southwest France. The 570 dm thickness was just touching the southeast coast of England at 12z (CMC analysis for all these). The upper high over Europe has a central height of 599 dm, a value quite unusual there, occasionally you see that or 600-602 dm in subtropical highs over the Atlantic, south-central US or Pacific. The 12z height for London is 592 dm. On the meteociel hourly temperature map, I would say the extreme heat corresponds to the 576 dm thickness at present and there is a pooling of higher dew points towards that boundary, 22 C near Le Mans with humidex values above 40 C in a number of locations. But I think as the thicknesses advect north, the heat will begin to show up better between 570 and 576 dm as the dynamic front is further north than the weaker surface front causing that pooling effect. I also notice that the 06z GFS halted the recent trend to less robust northward thickness advection and slightly reversed it allowing the 576 dm contour onto land in Britain and surging the 570 past the northern tip of Ireland on Thursday. Those are signs that the heat in France will be partially released into the circulation setting up ahead of the Saturday cold front which is weak enough to suggest that temperatures won't even fall much on Sunday in southern England. I still foresee 34-36 C temperatures in the greater London area (Saturday seems assured, Friday could be 32-34 with perhaps a higher reading further west). Even on Sunday it will be 26-28 C in southeast England and there appears to be some hot weather possible at times in July also. This French heat machine will be hard to break down once established, so it's likely to be there most of the summer feeding into any opportunities for northward advection.

EWP tracker had reached 113 mm on 24th, may come close to my earlier provisional of 133 mm for the contest scoring. But at this point the only score that can change now is the 200 mm forecast by LG, otherwise all the other scores are locked in (within 0.2-0.3 for any that either lose or gain from adjustments to LG's current mid-range score). (also the "what if" score I gave in a separate entry for stewfox is only confirmed at 128.1 mm otherwise it would be reduced slightly, highest forecast officially other than the 200 mm was 116 mm).

Most likely finish before corrections appears to be 14.7, maybe 14.8 so would take 0.2 to 0.3 to equate to 1981-2010 normals. The 1989-2018 average is 14.7 so it may not hold on to that "new" normal. I'm on 14.4 so you can pretty much rule out a big downward correction, it's a rule.

Today's highest readings were 38 in the lower Rhone valley and 36 in eastern Netherlands near the 576 dm wave crest. This wave crest is forecast to translate east into Germany with a second wave of heat moving north from France towards western Britain over the next two days. With that one, dew points are already around 22 C in some parts of central France (sure I posted this earlier but I don't see it, maybe in the wrong thread).