Roger J Smith

Also, this is the expanded frequency count for the 30-year periods for all 153 of the days that reached a mean of 22.0 or higher. At random, the 30-year intervals should have about 18 hot days and the recent decade (most of nine summers) should have 6. The years 1975 and 1976 account for 17 alone. 1772-1800 _ 4 _________ 1921-1950 _ 30 1801-1830 _12 _________1951-1980 _ 22 1831-1860 _10 _________ 1981-2010 _ 39 1861-1890 _10 _________ 2011-2019 _ 10 1891-1920 _16 _________

Meanwhile, here's an additional list of all other hot days 22.0 to 22.2 that didn't make the top 100 and ties ... there are 48 additional days in this addition, for a total of 153. Any 21.9 days would be tied 154th. t106th _ 22.2 __ 16 July 1793, 2 Aug 1856, 18 July 1859, 16 July 1868, 5 Aug 1897, 18 and 20 July, 1901, 12 Aug 1911, __________ 19 July 1921, 4 Aug 1933, 26 July 2018 t117th _ 22.1 __ 5 July 1836, 15 Aug 1893, 10 July 1921, 14 July 1926, 21 June 1941, 18 Aug 1947, 22 and 23 Aug 1955, __________ 5 Aug 1975, 30 June 1976, 12 July 1983, 24 July 1989, 19 Aug 1995, 19 Aug 1996,19 Aug 1997, 19 June 2005, 18 July 2006. t134th _ 22.0 __ 15 July 1779, 16 July 1808, 1 Aug 1825, 22 June 1846, 13 July 1847, 25 July 1872, 17 Aug 1893, __________ 20 July 1900, 15 & 16 July 1912, 5 & 6 Aug 1933, 24 June 1935, 17 Aug 1947, 12 Aug 1953, 3 Aug 1975, __________ 11 Aug 1995, 8 Aug 1997, 11 July 2005, 27 June 2011 t154th _ 21.9 Oddly enough, this lower threshhold does not extend the season, anything before 2 June or after 5 September is below 22.0 C. It does add eight days in the 96-day interval to reach 66 days with at least one representative. August gains proportionately more than July in this extended version. ____________________________________________________________________________________ The following is the complete list of dates filled by the 153 hottest days (extending the table from the previous version). __ * for each additional hot day. 18 in June _ 2 3 6 15 19 21* 22* 24 26 27*** 28 29 30 85 in July _ 1*** 2*3 4 5** 6**7*10 11**12****13****14***15***16****17 18**** 19****20****21** 22*** 23* 24** 25** 26* 27 28 29**30*31* 48 in August _1**2** 3**4* 5****6*7 8*9* 10** 11**12*13 15 17** 18* 19*** 22 23 27 28* 29 2 in Sept __ 2, 5

Heavy rains in parts of the north brought the EWP tracker to 53 mm (after 27 days) and likely around 60 mm after 28. Large parts of the south have had a lot less than this, but may get boosted by the incoming low. Looks like a finish near 70 mm is likely now.

One other stat of interest, the 105 hottest days span the period 2 June to 5 September which is 96 days, but of those only 58 provide at least one (the record max for the other 38 falls below 22.3). The dates most frequently represented in the list (with four) are 1st, 12th, 13th and 22nd of July. The longest stretch of days with multiple cases is 18-25 July, then 29 July to 3 August. There are no dates missing from the 11th of July to the 11th of August. Only 13 cases fall 2nd to 20th of June or 13th August and later. The top 39 (23.1 and higher) all fall between 1st July and 13th August. For the entire set of 105 days, the dates included are as follows (each asterisk represents an additional day). 12 in June _ 2 3 6 15 21 22 26 27** 28 29 64 in July _ 1*** 2* 3 4 5* 6** 7* 11* 12*** 13*** 14** 15* 16 17 18* 19*** 20** 21** 22*** 23* 24* 25* 26 27 28 29** 30* 31* 27 in August _1* 2* 3* 4 5* 6 7 8 9* 10** 11* 13 17 18 19 27 28* 29 2 in Sept __ 2, 5

If one defines accurate as lowest possible temperature reading in a given area, then that site looks a bit less than ideal, but nobody could say it wasn't fairly representative of where millions of people live, the average back garden in southeast England must be smaller and more enclosed than that. I've seen a variety of "climate stations" that get data into publication after some time passes for collection and quality control and they are broadly similar to this one. They all tend to run a bit warmer than your "perfectly sited" location might run, and I know the range quite well from doing an extensive research project on it, without exposing instruments to badly flawed locations with nearby heat reflectors, you can still get a 2 to 3 C range in daytime temperatures and even larger on a clear night over snow cover. I have a hunch that they will let this reading pass. As to all-time records, was there not a reading back in 1868 that was over 100 F that nobody ever seems to mention any longer, but I recall reading about it in Lamb's work so it must have had some official sanction half a century ago.

The top 100 list is actually 105 due to the ties for 98th place 22.3 C. So of those 105, this is how they break down by 30-year intervals (the first one is missing its first year). A random distribution would average 12 in these 30-year intervals and 4 in the current decade. 1772-1800 _ 2 _________ 1921-1950 _ 21 1801-1830 _10 _________1951-1980 _16 1831-1860 _ 5 _________ 1981-2010 _ 28 1861-1890 _ 8 _________ 2011-2019 _ 8 1891-1920 _ 7 _________ Only about 20% of the years contributed days to this top 105 list.

I have edited the value posted now for yesterday, it was 24.7 C, tied third warmest. We'll see where that stands at the final adjustment at month's end.

The Hundred Hottest Days (CET 1772-2019) Ranking the hottest days in the daily CET records for mean daily temperatures ... July 2019 values are now final. Rank __ Mean __ Date(s) _t1 ____ 25.2 ___ 29 Jul 1948, 25 Jul 2019 _ 3 ____ 24.9 ___ 1 Aug 1995 _ 4 ____ 24.7 ___ 4 Jul 1976 _t5 ____ 24.6 ___ 3 Jul 1976, 2 Aug 1995, 19 Jul 2006, 1 Jul 2015 _ 9 ____ 24.5 ___ 13 Jul 1808 t10 ____ 24.4 ___ 14 Jul 1808, 3 Aug 1990 t12 ____ 24.0 ___ 5 Jul 1852, 13 Jul 1923 t14 ____ 23.9 ___ 24 Jul 1818, 5 Jul 1976, 2 Aug 1990, 9 Aug 2003 t18 ____ 23.7 ___ 15 Jul 1825, 12 Jul 1923, 28 Jul 1948, 8 Aug 1975 _22____ 23.6 ___ 13 Aug 1911 t23 ____ 23.5 ___ 19 Jul 1825, 20 Jul 2016 t25 ____ 23.4 ___ 29 Jul 1911, 31 Jul 1943, 4 Aug 1975, 31 Jul 1995, 3 Aug 1995 t30 ____ 23.3 ___ 18 Jul 1825, 6 Jul 1976 t32 ____ 23.2 ___ 22 Jul 1868, 9 Aug 1911, 26 Jul 2006 t35 ____ 23.1 ___ 6 Jul 1852, 21 Jul 1868, 30 Jul 1948, 22 Jul 1989, 5 Aug 2003, 24 Jul 2019 t41 ____ 23.0 ___ 28 Aug 1942, 3 June 1947, 29 Jul 2001, 19 Jul 2016 t45 ____ 22.9 ___ 15 June 1858, 20 Jul 1878, 1 Jul 1976 t48 ____ 22.8 ___ 27 June 1826, 27 Aug 1930, 19 Aug 1932, 7 Aug 1975, 2 Jul 1976 t53 ____ 22.7 ___ 21 June 1817, 27 June 1878, 13 Jul 1983, 21 Jul 1989, 16 Jul 2003, 2 Jul 2006, 20 Jul 2006, 25 Jul 2006, 1 Aug 2013 t62 ____ 22.6 ___ 11 Jul 1783, 18 Aug 1893, 19 Jul 1901, 2 Sep 1906, 7 Jul 1923, 29 Aug 1930, 28 Jun 1976, 7 Jul 1976, _________________ 12 Jul 1983, 11 Aug 1997, 15 Jul 2003 t73 ____ 22.5 ___ 10 Aug 1773, 30 Jul 1830, 14 Jul 1847, 5 Aug 1868, 11 Aug 1884, 12 Jul 1941, 6 June 1950, 1 July 1952, _________________ 27 June 1976, 14 Jul 1983, 10 Aug 1997, 6 Aug 2003, 1 Jul 2009, 27 Jul 2018, 23 Jul 2019 t88 ____ 22.4 ___ 12 Jul 1808, 17 Aug 1876, 21 Jul 1911, 11 Jul 1923, 28 Aug 1930, 5 Sep 1949, 29 June 1976, 13 Jul 1983 _________________ 23 Jul 1989, 10 Aug 2003 t98 ____ 22.3 ___ 17 Jul 1834, 22 Jul 1869, 18 Jul 1921, 22 Jul 1925, 22 June 1941, 2 June 1947, 6 Jul 1957, 26 June 1976 _______________________________________________________

Any chance you could turn the Sun down a bit then?

Worth noting it has reached 42 in Paris which I believe is hotter than August 2003.

The 24th record from 1818 seems to have survived, today probably making a run at the all-time daily record. EWP after 23 days was up to 36 mm, likely stayed there after 24 days. GFS accumulated rainfall to end of July is quite variable over the grid but appears to average 25-30 mm, suggesting outcome 61-66 mm.

You can't go wrong today anywhere in central Alberta or western SK with the dynamics looking quite strong by this afternoon. We've just had a heavy thunderstorm with the cold front moving through here (about 250 miles southwest of Calgary). That map looks a bit truncated on the western side of the outbreak, I would expect verification to show something similar but extended further west as the dry air is not going to rush east from the Rockies in this situation, maybe south of the TCH it would do so, but severe storm potential looks high to me in central Alberta as well as the areas they show in western SK. The fact that the active cold front is back here suggests they have that shifted too far east. Betting that some place around Red Deer, Coronation possibly even Calgary to Drumheller might get hit mid-day.

Today should bring a major storm outbreak in central Alberta and western SK, the cold front just went through my location with a heavy thunderstorm and radar shows a line moving rapidly east so when that jumps the Rockies around noon Mountain time, would expect a lot of action especially around a watch box with approx boundaries Red Deer, Coronation Edmonton Lloydminster (on the AB-SK border). I think a position near Coronation might reduce the eventual drive to the final action spots, the map I saw on the other thread looks to be pushed further east than the verification may occur (although it's not wrong where it does show potential, just seems truncated on western side for no obvious reason given the dynamics). As to the mosquitoes, it's a bad year due to all the rain earlier. Somewhat similar in this region. We can't win, it's either bugs or fires.

Looking south at sunset Tuesday, tracking cells moving north-northeast from eastern WA state into southeast BC. We had frequent lightning for about an hour once it got dark here, closest strikes were about 5 km to our east. Most of this activity has now moved on towards the Rockies and I expect it will link up with existing thunderstorms over central Alberta late tonight, leading to a fairly significant outbreak in central Alberta on Wednesday. Red Deer to Coronation then east to SK border might be best prospect although some storms could develop much closer to Calgary as well. Sharp upper trough has formed and will be moving rapidly east through these regions overnight and on Wednesday.

Significant record daily CET values A "significant" record is defined as one that is either earliest or latest on record. This is the list generated ... RECORD MAX 10.8 __ 1 Jan 1851 (not considered valid, only appears due to calendar) 11.6 __ 3 Jan 1932 (9.8 on 28 Jan 1944 is lowest of year) 12.2 __ 3 Feb 2004 12.8 __ 4 Feb 2004 13.4 __12 Mar 1957 14.1 __18 Mar 1990 14.6 __26 Mar 1777 14.8 __27 Mar 1777 15.1 __30 Mar 2017 15.6 __ 4 Apr 1946 16.0 __11 Apr 1869 16.1 __ 14 Apr 1869 16.3 __ 15 Apr 1945 17.0 __ 16 Apr 1945 17.6 __ 19 Apr 2018 19.7 __29 Apr 1775 20.0 __15 May 1833 20.4 __19 May 1868 21.0 __25 May 1953 21.2 __29 May 1780 22.3 __ 2 June 1947 23.0 __ 3 June 1947 24.6 __ 1 July 2015 24.7 __ 4 July 1976 25.2 __25 July 2019 and 29 July 1948 25.1 __ 12 Aug 2020 23.6 __13 Aug 1911 23.0 __28 Aug 1942 22.6 __ 2 Sep 1906 22.4 __ 5 Sep 1949 21.4 __21 Sep 2006 20.2 __ 1 Oct 1985 19.8 __ 3 Oct 2011 19.0 __ 6 Oct 1921 18.5 __13 Oct 2018 17.2 __14 Oct 2017 16.9 __ 31 Oct 2014 15.4 __ 5 Nov 1938 14.6 __13 Nov 1938 14.4 __22 Nov 1947 13.1 __19 Dec 2015 (replaced 12.9 from 12 Dec 1994) 12.0 __29 Dec 1987 11.1 __31 Dec 1859 (not valid, only appears due to calendar) RECORD MIN (as there was a reading of -10.8 in December, the values in early January must be colder than that to qualify) -11.9 __ 20 Jan 1838 -8.9 __25 Jan 1795 -8.8 __ 9 Feb 1816 -8.0 __15 Feb 1929 -7.3 __16 Feb 1855 -7.1 __17 Feb 1855 -6.7 __24 Feb 1947 -6.5 __13 Mar 1845 -3.7 __14 Mar 1845 -3.0 __16 Mar 1845 -2.2 __17 Mar 1845 -1.6 __21 Mar 1899 -1.3 __25 Mar 1853 -0.8 __31 Mar 1799 -0.5 __ 3 Apr 1799 -0.2 __19 Apr 1772 0.5 __24 Apr 1908 0.7 __29 Apr 1856 2.6 __30 Apr 1945 2.9 __ 8 May 1861 3.6 __17 May 1935 4.1 __18 May 1872 4.6 __26 May 1821 4.9 __30 May 1807 6.4 __31 May 1802 7.3 __19 June 1795 8.7 __20 July 1836 (11.9 on 1 Aug 1888 is the highest value of the year) 8.8 __26 Aug 1864 7.1 __ 1 Sep 1816 6.7 __13 Sep 1807 6.5 __21 Sep 1872 6.3 __22 Sep 1872 6.0 __23 Sep 1773 4.9 __28 Sep 1824 3.6 __ 2 Oct 1817 3.5 __ 7 Oct 1829 3.3 __ 9 Oct 1852 3.2 __12 Oct 1887 2.2 __13 Oct 1838 1.8 __16 Oct 1843 1.5 __19 Oct 1813 1.2 __21 Oct 1842 0.9 __23 Oct 1859 0.6 __24 Oct 1859 0.3 __29 Oct 1895 -0.6 __ 7 Nov 1791 -1.2 __ 8 Nov 1812 -1.4 __12 Nov 1919 -2.1 __15 Nov 1965 -2.9 __16 Nov 1901 -4.2 __23 Nov 1858 -4.6 __24 Nov 1904 -4.7 __ 2 Dec 1796 -5.5 __ 6 Dec 1844 -5.7 __ 7 Dec 1879 -6.7 __11 Dec 1784 -8.5 __12 Dec 1981 -10.8 __25 Dec 1796

Slowly but surely getting the material from the old thread into this new home with updates ... CET normal values for every 30-year period starting with 1661-1690 ending with 1981-2010 _ (and most recent 30 years bonus) ... if lines overflow, reduce screen magnification (125% or lower should work) 30-yr period _____ JAN __ FEB __MAR __ APR __MAY __ JUN __JUL __ AUG __SEP __ OCT __NOV __ DEC__YEAR (all data 1659-2019)_3.3 ___3.9 ___5.3 ___7.9 __ 11.2 __ 14.3 __ 16.0 __ 15.6 __ 13.3 ___9.7 ___6.1 ___4.1 __ 9.2 1661-1690 _______ 2.9 ___3.1 ___4.8 ___7.4 __ 11.0 __ 14.3 __ 15.8 __ 15.3 __ 12.8 ___9.4 ___5.7 ___3.4 __ 8.8 1671-1700________2.6 ___2.6 ___4.4 ___7.1 __ 10.7 __ 13.9 __ 15.5 __ 14.9 __ 12.3 ___9.0 ___5.3 ___3.3 __ 8.5 1681-1710________2.4 ___3.0 ___4.5 ___7.3 __ 10.8 __ 13.9 __ 15.5 __ 15.3 __ 12.6 ___9.0 ___5.6 ___4.0 __ 8.6 1691-1720________2.6 ___3.3 ___4.7 ___7.4 __ 10.7 __ 14.0 __ 15.8 __ 15.5 __ 12.9 ___9.1 ___5.8 ___3.8 __ 8.8 1701-1730________3.1 ___3.8 ___5.1 ___7.9 __ 11.3 __ 14.4 __ 15.9 __ 15.8 __ 13.6 ___9.5 ___6.4 ___4.0 __ 9.2 1711-1740________3.4 ___4.0 ___5.4 ___8.1 __ 11.2 __ 14.6 __ 16.0 __ 15.7 __ 13.8 ___9.7 ___6.2 ___4.1 __ 9.3 1721-1750________3.4 ___3.9 ___5.2 ___7.8 __ 11.4 __ 14.5 __ 16.0 __ 15.9 __ 14.0 ___9.6 ___6.3 ___4.2 __ 9.3 1731-1760________3.3 ___3.8 ___5.2 ___7.7 __ 11.2 __ 14.5 __ 16.1 __ 15.8 __ 13.8 ___9.4 ___5.8 ___4.2 __ 9.2 1741-1770________2.9 ___3.7 ___4.8 ___7.6 __ 11.2 __ 14.3 __ 16.0 __ 15.7 __ 13.6 ___9.2 ___5.7 ___3.9 __ 9.0 1751-1780________2.4 ___3.7 ___5.3 ___7.9 __ 11.2 __ 14.5 __ 16.1 __ 15.8 __ 13.4 ___9.3 ___5.6 ___3.7 __ 9.0 1761-1790________2.4 ___3.7 ___4.8 ___7.9 __ 11.5 __ 14.6 __ 16.1 __ 15.9 __ 13.3 ___9.2 ___5.5 ___3.7 __ 9.0 1771-1800________2.4 ___3.8 ___4.9 ___8.1 __ 11.4 __ 14.7 __ 16.3 __ 15.9 __ 13.3 ___9.2 ___5.5 ___3.5 __ 9.1 1781-1810________2.9 ___3.8 ___4.6 ___8.0 __ 11.5 __ 14.6 __ 16.1 __ 15.8 __ 13.2 ___9.4 ___5.3 ___3.2 __ 9.0 1791-1820________2.5 ___4.0 ___5.1 ___8.0 __ 11.2 __ 14.2 __ 15.9 __ 15.6 __ 13.1 ___9.5 ___5.5 ___3.2 __ 9.0 1801-1830________2.4 ___3.9 ___5.5 ___7.9 __ 11.4 __ 14.2 __ 15.8 __ 15.8 __ 13.1 ___9.8 ___5.9 ___3.6 __ 9.1 1811-1840________2.3 ___4.0 ___5.4 ___7.9 __ 11.4 __ 14.4 __ 15.7 __ 15.6 __ 13.0 ___9.8 ___6.1 ___4.0 __ 9.1 1821-1850________2.6 ___3.9 ___5.5 ___8.0 __ 11.6 __ 14.7 __ 15.7 __ 15.3 __ 13.0 ___9.6 ___6.3 ___4.5 __ 9.2 1831-1860________3.2 ___3.7 ___5.2 ___7.8 __ 11.2 __ 14.6 __ 15.7 __ 15.4 __ 13.0 ___9.6 ___5.8 ___4.3 __ 9.1 1841-1870________3.4 ___3.9 ___5.2 ___8.2 __ 11.2 __ 14.4 __ 15.8 __ 15.4 __ 13.2 ___9.6 ___5.7 ___4.3 __ 9.2 1851-1880________3.7 ___4.2 ___5.2 ___8.2 __ 10.8 __ 14.2 __ 15.9 __ 15.6 __ 13.2 ___9.7 ___5.3 ___4.1 __ 9.2 1861-1890________3.5 ___4.5 ___5.1 ___8.1 __ 10.9 __ 14.1 __ 15.8 __ 15.4 __ 13.2 ___9.3 ___5.7 ___3.8 __ 9.1 1871-1900________3.4 ___4.2 ___5.2 ___7.9 __ 10.7 __ 14.2 __ 15.8 __ 15.5 __ 13.1 ___9.0 ___6.1 ___3.7 __ 9.1 1881-1910________3.5 ___3.9 ___5.1 ___7.7 __ 10.9 __ 14.1 __ 15.7 __ 15.2 __ 13.1 ___9.3 ___6.3 ___4.0 __ 9.1 1891-1920________3.7 ___4.1 ___5.3 ___7.9 __ 11.3 __ 14.1 __ 15.7 __ 15.4 __ 13.1 ___9.4 ___6.2 ___4.5 __ 9.2 1901-1930________4.2 ___4.2 ___5.5 ___8.0 __ 11.3 __ 13.8 __ 15.8 __ 15.2 __ 13.1 ___9.8 ___5.8 ___4.5 __ 9.2 1911-1940________4.2 ___4.3 ___5.7 ___8.2 __ 11.5 __ 14.2 __ 15.9 __ 15.6 __ 13.3 ___9.6 ___6.2 ___4.6 __ 9.4 1921-1950________3.9 ___4.2 ___5.9 ___8.0 __ 11.3 __ 14.4 __ 16.3 __ 15.9 __ 13.6 __10.0 ___6.4 ___4.5 __ 9.5 1931-1960________3.5 ___3.9 ___5.9 ___8.1 __ 11.5 __ 14.6 __ 16.2 __ 16.0 __ 13.7 __10.1 ___6.8 ___4.7 __ 9.6 1941-1970________3.3 ___3.6 ___5.7 ___8.1 __ 11.4 __ 14.5 __ 16.0 __ 15.7 __ 13.7 __10.6 ___6.6 ___4.4 __ 9.5 1951-1980________3.6 ___3.7 ___5.6 ___8.0 __ 11.3 __ 14.3 __ 15.9 __ 15.6 __ 13.6 __10.5 ___6.6 ___4.7 __ 9.4 1961-1990________3.8 ___3.8 ___5.7 ___7.9 __ 11.2 __ 14.2 __ 16.1 __ 15.8 __ 13.6 __10.6 ___6.6 ___4.7 __ 9.5 1971-2000________4.2 ___4.2 ___6.3 ___8.1 __ 11.3 __ 14.1 __ 16.5 __ 16.2 __ 13.7 __10.4 ___6.9 ___5.1 __ 9.7 1981-2010________4.4 ___4.4 ___6.6 ___8.5 __ 11.7 __ 14.5 __ 16.7 __ 16.4 __ 14.0 __10.7 ___7.1 ___4.6 __10.0 1991-2020________4.6 ___4.8 ___6.7 ___8.9 __ 11.9 __ 14.7 __ 16.9 __ 16.5 __ 14.2 __11.0 ___7.4 ___5.0 __10.2 (the final set include data to July 2019 and will be adjusted through 2020 until complete .. most values here are unlikely to change more than 0.1 now).

Keep an eye on this radar showing the developing cold front which is still to my west. I am located about 50 kms southwest of the Castlegar weather station shown near the U.S. border on the map. Currently hot and sunny here with widespread ACC moving north. https://weather.gc.ca/radar/index_e.html?id=XSS Also the Calgary area radar showing a bit of ground clutter now could get active after 00z. https://weather.gc.ca/radar/index_e.html?id=XSM PDT is 7 hours behind z time and MDT is 6 hours behind. (8 and 7 if comparing to BST).

EWP had reached 29 mm by 21st, likely same now as 22nd essentially dry. GFS 12z accumulations by end of 31st are quite variable with heavy amounts over higher portions of northern and central England but relatively little shown around coastal areas. Blend is about 30 mm on average but hard to say what it will translate into for EWP tracking, anyway, if you are between 40 and 70 mm you have a chance of finishing high, would speculate. Meanwhile, with the current heat wave setting in, here are the four daily records apparently under threat ... 23 Jul ... 22.4 (1989) 24 Jul ... 23.9 (1818) 25 Jul ... 22.7 (2006) 26 Jul ... 23.2 (2006) Those are not as high as the really warm record set in July 2006 and also 2016 which came earlier (19th and 20th, 24.5 and 23.5) and are safe for now. Glad to see we moved past the 1868 record highs (21st-22nd were 23.1, 23.2) also. We broke the 27th July record last year at 22.5 (the weakest of the four consecutive previously from July 1948). 25.2 on 29th July 1948 is the absolute extreme followed by 24.9 on the first of August, 1995.

Note to Paul and contestants, if you use the quoted version of the table of entries, I have since changed two entries slightly after doing a quality control scan. A Winter's Tale was shown at 36.7 but should be 36.8 (changed in my table, not in the quote). Less serious, I had "London" down as date for second last entry of spurskevin, should have read Thursday. Some serious heat showing up in west-central France, 42.1 appears to be the national maximum there northeast of Bordeaux which also broke 41 C. Some 41+ readings as far north as Loire valley today. The only thing that seems to loom as prevention of 38+ readings in UK would be cloud cover left over from thunderstorms, otherwise despite what I entered on, looks good for the 38-40 crowd. I think 40+ is perhaps a bridge too far at least with the readings we will hear about in the immediate aftermath, possibly one will trickle in much later.

Storms will be building over southeast BC today and spilling out of the Rockies this evening north of Calgary. Would expect some chance of seeing action around Cochrane to Airdrie in northwest to north suburbs of Calgary by sunset. This cluster will redevelop on Wednesday in central Alberta and somewhere around Coronation to Oyen might see large hail and slight risk of tornadic cells. Will be keeping an eye out here (near BC-WA border just west of northern Idaho) for anything worth capturing this afternoon and evening as it's currently quite hot and sky is full of ACC usually a sign of later thunderstorm development over this region. Just to prove that we do get storms in Canada, here's a picture I took in southern Alberta in August, 2007:

Hot spell Maximum temperature contest (23-26 July 2019)  FORECASTER _________Max temp _ Loc'n _____ Date janmac ________________41.3 ____ Heathrow __ Thursday Jamesjane _____________40.7 ____ -- -- _______ -- -- Clark3r ________________40.6 ____ London ____ Thursday Jam __________________ 40.4 ____ Kent ______ Thursday bigsnow _______________ 40.3 ____ Kent ______ Thursday Radiating Dendrite _______40.2 ____ -- -- _______ -- -- djdazzle _______________ 40.2 ____ Northolt ___ Thursday mizzle _________________40.2 ____ Farnborough_Thursday Turnedoutniceagain ______ 40.2 ____ Heathrow __ Thursday Loifeless _______________40.1 ____ Kew ______ Thursday Azazel _________________40.1 ____ Heathrow ___ -- -- Panayiotis ______________40.1 ____ -- -- ________-- -- MKN __________________ 40.0 ____ Heathrow __ Thursday Stainesbloke ____________40.0 ____ Kent ______ Thursday Stationary Front _________ 39.9 ____ Northolt ____ -- -- Neil Harris ______________39.9 ____ Thanet, Kent_Thursday Mark wheeler ___________ 39.8 ____ Faversham __Thursday Mike5900_______________39.8 ____ Basingstoke _ Thursday thestixx ________________ 39.7 ____ Gravesend _ -- -- Bazza118 ______________ 39.7 ____ W London __ Thursday abbie123 _______________39.6 ____ London ____ Thursday Steve Murr _____________ 39.5 ____ -- -- _______ -- -- Jayces ________________ 39.5 ____ London ____ Thursday Smartie _______________ 39.5 ____ London ____ -- -- Sparkiee ______________ 39.5 ____ s.e.London __ -- -- WillinGlossop __________ 39.5 ____ Brogdale ___ -- -- Don __________________ 39.5 ____ Gravesend _ -- -- Polar Gael _____________39.5 ____ Heathrow ___ Thursday Earthshine _____________ 39.4 ____ -- -- _______ -- -- Summer Sun ___________ 39.4 ____ Wisley _____ Thursday Ross Andrew Hemphill ____39.3 ____ Kent ______ -- -- A Frayed Knot __________ 39.3 ____ Bracknell ___ Thursday Updated_Weather _______ 39.2 ____ s.e. or EA __ Thursday Decemberof2010 ________ 39.2 ____ Kent ______ Thursday sunnijim ________________39.2 ____ London ____Thursday ARW WeatherMan _______ 39.2 ____ Northolt ____ Thursday Connor Bailey Degnan ____ 39.1 ____ Kent ______ Thursday Captain Shortwave _______ 39.1 ____ Gravesend _ Thursday Snowy L _______________ 39.1 ____ Maidstone __ Thursday DTHFCJ _______________ 39.1 ____ Northolt ____ -- -- snowsummer ___________ 39.1 ____ Heathrow ___ -- -- Mike Poole _____________ 39.1 ____ Cambridge __ Thursday kold weather ____________ 39.1 ____ Heathrow ___ -- -- fujita5 __________________39.1 ____ West London _Thursday ProlongedSnowLover _____39.0 ____ Heathrow ___ -- -- Selliso _________________ 38.9 ____ Kent ______ Thursday Lightning Lover __________ 38.9 ____ Kent ______ Thursday Bobafet ________________ 38.9 ____ Kent ______ Thursday Tilly ___________________ 38.9 ____ Faversham _ -- -- northwest snow __________ 38.8 ____ Gravesend _ Thursday matt111 ________________ 38.8 ____ Kent _______Thursday h2005__uk__ ____________38.8 ____ Heathrow ___ Thursday booferking ______________ 38.8 ____ London _____Thursday CheesepuffScott _________ 38.7 ____ Epsom _____Thursday Pinball Wizard ___________ 38.7 ____ Kent _______ -- -- seabreeze86 ____________ 38.7 ____ Gravesend __ -- -- snowrye ________________38.7 ____ Gravesend __ Thursday Had Worse _____________ 38.7 ____ -- -- ________ -- -- Ols500 ________________ 38.7 ____ Heathrow ___ Thursday Man With Beard _________ 38.6 ____ Kent _______ Thursday Quicksilver1989 __________38.6 ____ Heathrow ___ Thursday easy-oasy ______________ 38.5 ____ Kent _______ Thursday Katrine Basso ___________ 38.5 ____ S.Ockenden _ Thursday virtualsphere ____________38.4 ____ Kent ________Thursday LeighD ________________ 38.4 ____ -- -- _________ -- -- Leo97t _________________38.3 ____ Faversham __ Thursday lottiekent _______________ 38.3 ____ Kent _______Thursday red1cell ________________ 38.3 ____ Wisley _____ -- -- Alexis __________________38.3 ____ Northolt ____ Thursday Matt Tarrant _____________ 38.3 ____ Kew _______Thursday Mike of macc ____________ 38.3 ____ Heathrow ___ Thursday Stabilo19 _______________ 38.2 ____ London ____ Thursday PerfectStorm ____________38.2 ____ Northolt ____ Thursday Snow_Joke _____________ 38.2 ____ Slough ____ Thursday Onding _________________38.1 ____ London ____ -- -- Oddspot ________________38.1 ____ Slough _____ -- -- BazookaBob ____________ 38.1 ____ Kent _______ Thursday Rob K __________________38.1 ____ Cambs _____ Thursday Carl46Wrexham _________ 38.1 ____ Heathrow ____ -- -- Team Squirrel ___________ 38.1 ____ London area __ -- -- Mattstoke _______________38.1 ____ Northolt _____ Thursday Feb1991Blizzard _________ 38.0 ____ Kew London _ Thursday Huntforsnow _____________38.0 ____ London ____ -- -- EdStone ________________37.9 ____ London ____ Thursday AWD ___________________37.9 ____ Kent ______ Thursday MrBartlettAzores _________ 37.9 ____ East Anglia _ Friday Ice Day _________________37.9 ____ Gravesend __-- -- Luke Best _______________37.9 ____ Kent _______Thursday 95 degrees ______________37.9 ____St James Park_Thursday Dave L _________________37.8 ____ Heathrow ___Thursday tomp456 ________________37.7 ____ London ____ Thursday IRememberAtlantic252 _____37.7 ____ Kent ______ Thursday FBR ___________________ 37.7 ____ Heathrow __ -- -- Norrance _______________ 37.7 ____ London ____ Thursday stratty __________________37.7 ____ London ____ Thursday Kirkcaldy Weather ________ 37.6 ____ Herts ______Thursday Emmett Garland __________37.6 ____ London ____ -- -- jamesbhx _______________ 37.6 ____ Mildenhall __ -- -- daenerys _______________ 37.6 ____ Heathrow ___Thursday AppleUK 123 ____________ 37.5 ____ London ____ Thursday Frost Hollow _____________37.5 ____ Heathrow ___ -- -- Paul Faulkner ____________37.4 ____ London ____ Thursday Weather Boy ____________ 37.4 ____ Heathrow ___ Thursday Crewe Cold _____________ 37.4 ____ Heathrow ___ Thursday Candice ________________ 37.4 ____ Norfolk _____ Thursday suffolkboy_ ______________37.4 ____ Herts _______Thursday Mr Frost ________________ 37.3 ____ Maidstone __ Thursday Noahjoe ________________ 37.3 ____ London ____ Thursday ThundersnowDays ________37.3 ____ Kew _______ -- -- Danm __________________37.3 ____ London _____ Thursday DR(S)NO _______________37.3 ____ Dartford ____ Thursday alderc __________________37.3 ____ Wattisham __ Thursday Lauren _________________ 37.3 ____ Gravesend __ Thursday No balls like Snow balls ____ 37.2 ____ Kent _______Thursday mb018538 _______________37.2 ____ Heathrow ___ -- -- Beverley Lass ____________37.2 ____ London _____ Thursday Anthony147 _____________ 37.2 ____ Gravesend __ Thursday Kent Blizzard ____________ 37.2 ____ Gravesend __ Thursday kentspur ________________ 37.1 __ Dartford, Gravesham _ Thursday highpressure _____________37.1 ____ Sevenoaks Kent _ -- -- Daniel* _________________ 37.1 ____ Northolt _____Thursday *stormforce-beka* _________37.1 ____ Kent _______ Thursday shuggee ________________ 37.0 ____ Cambs ______-- -- B87 ____________________37.0 ____ St James Park _ -- -- Dami ___________________36.9 ____ London ______ -- -- badgers01 ______________ 36.9 ____ Wisley, Surrey _ Thursday scrat ___________________36.9 ____ East Malling ___Thursday snowblizzard ____________ 36.9 ____ Heathrow _____ Thursday weather-history __________ 36.9 ____ Northolt ______ Thursday sainsbo ________________ 36.9 ____ Kew _________ Thursday Canadian Coops _________ 36.8 ____ London/Kent __ Thursday geordiesnow ____________ 36.8 ____ Heathrow _____Thursday Beazley Blizzard _________ 36.8 ____ Heathrow _____ Thursday A Winter's Tale ___________ 36.8 ____ Heathrow _____Thursday ChezWeather ____________36.7 ____ Kent _________ Thursday Stargazer _______________36.7 ____ Kew London ___ Thursday Stuie W ________________ 36.6 ____ Cambridge ____ Thursday DIS1970 _______________ 36.6 ____ Kent __________ -- -- MetWeather _____________36.3 ____ Kent _________ Thursday Agnostick _______________36.2 ____ Heathrow _____ Thursday Thundershine ____________35.9 ____ Wisley _______ Thursday Marcus_surfer ___________ 35.9 ____ Heathrow _____ Thursday Roger J Smith ___________ 35.7 ____ Heathrow _____ Thursday zmstorm ________________35.4 ____ Gravesend ____ -- -- Another Kent clipper ______ 35.4 ____ Herts ________ Thursday Cheeky_Monkey _________ 34.9 ____ Dartford ______ Thursday spurskevin ______________ 34.8 ____ Heathrow _____Thursday hillbilly __________________33.7 ____ Ashford _______ -- -- =============================================================== 148 entries received before on-time deadline (1200h) Tuesday __ entries are closed __ check your entry against this table but Paul's records are official in any case __ consensus (median) to date 38.2 C __ only one entry has Friday as date, all others who selected a date said Thursday __ majority chose London area, Kent. (posted at 1201h BST)

The table above was re-posted at contest deadline (1201h Tuesday) with all later entries (0800h-1200h) included. One entry above was changed before deadline.

Hot spell Maximum temperature contest (23-26 July 2019) FORECASTER _________Max temp _ Loc'n _____ Date janmac ________________41.3 ____ Heathrow __ Thursday Jamesjane _____________40.7 ____ -- -- _______ -- -- Clark3r ________________40.6 ____ London ____ Thursday Jam __________________ 40.4 ____ Kent ______ Thursday bigsnow _______________ 40.3 ____ Kent ______ Thursday Radiating Dendrite _______40.2 ____ -- -- _______ -- -- djdazzle _______________ 40.2 ____ Northolt ___ Thursday mizzle _________________40.2 ____ Farnborough_Thursday Turnedoutniceagain ______ 40.2 ____ Heathrow __ Thursday Loifeless _______________40.1 ____ Kew ______ Thursday Azazel _________________40.1 ____ Heathrow ___ -- -- Panayiotis ______________40.1 ____ -- -- ________-- -- MKN __________________ 40.0 ____ Heathrow __ Thursday Stainesbloke ____________40.0 ____ Kent ______ Thursday Stationary Front _________ 39.9 ____ Northolt ____ -- -- Neil Harris ______________39.9 ____ Thanet, Kent_Thursday Mark wheeler ___________ 39.8 ____ Faversham*_ Thursday __ *Northolt? (edit?) thestixx ________________ 39.7 ____ Gravesend _ -- -- Bazza118 ______________ 39.7 ____ W London __ Thursday abbie123 _______________39.6 ____ London ____ Thursday Steve Murr _____________ 39.5 ____ -- -- _______ -- -- Jayces ________________ 39.5 ____ London ____ Thursday Smartie _______________ 39.5 ____ London ____ -- -- Sparkiee ______________ 39.5 ____ s.e.London __ -- -- WillinGlossop __________ 39.5 ____ Brogdale ___ -- -- Don __________________ 39.5 ____ Gravesend _ -- -- Polar Gael _____________39.5 ____ Heathrow ___ Thursday Earthshine _____________ 39.4 ____ -- -- _______ -- -- Summer Sun ___________ 39.4 ____ Wisley _____ Thursday Ross Andrew Hemphill ____39.3 ____ Kent ______ -- -- A Frayed Knot __________ 39.3 ____ Bracknell ___ Thursday Updated_Weather _______ 39.2 ____ s.e. or EA __ Thursday Decemberof2010 ________ 39.2 ____ Kent ______ Thursday Connor Bailey Degnan ____ 39.1 ____ Kent ______ Thursday Captain Shortwave _______ 39.1 ____ Gravesend _ Thursday Snowy L _______________ 39.1 ____ Maidstone __ Thursday DTHFCJ _______________ 39.1 ____ Northolt ____ -- -- snowsummer ___________ 39.1 ____ Heathrow ___ -- -- Mike Poole _____________ 39.1 ____ Cambridge __ Thursday kold weather ____________ 39.1 ____ Heathrow ___ -- -- ProlongedSnowLover _____39.0 ____ Heathrow ___ -- -- Selliso _________________ 38.9 ____ Kent ______ Thursday Lightning Lover __________ 38.9 ____ Kent ______ Thursday Bobafet ________________ 38.9 ____ Kent ______ Thursday Tilly ___________________ 38.9 ____ Faversham _ -- -- northwest snow __________ 38.8 ____ Gravesend _ Thursday matt111 ________________ 38.8 ____ Kent _______Thursday h2005__uk__ ___________ 38.8 ____ Heathrow ___ Thursday booferking _____________ 38.8 ____ London _____ Thursday CheesepuffScott _________ 38.7 ____ Epsom _____Thursday Pinball Wizard ___________ 38.7 ____ Kent _______ -- -- seabreeze86 ____________ 38.7 ____ Gravesend __ -- -- snowrye ________________38.7 ____ Gravesend __ Thursday Had Worse _____________ 38.7 ____ -- -- ________ -- -- easy-oasy ______________ 38.5 ____ Kent _______ Thursday virtualsphere ____________38.4 ____ Kent ________Thursday Leo97t _________________38.3 ____ Faversham __ Thursday lottiekent _______________ 38.3 ____ Kent _______Thursday red1cell ________________ 38.3 ____ Wisley _____ -- -- Alexis __________________38.3 ____ Northolt ____ Thursday Stabilo19 _______________ 38.2 ____ London ____ Thursday PerfectStorm ____________38.2 ____ Northolt ____ Thursday Snow_Joke _____________ 38.2 ____ Slough ____ Thursday Onding _________________38.1 ____ London ____ -- -- Oddspot ________________38.1 ____ Slough _____ -- -- BazookaBob ____________ 38.1 ____ Kent _______ Thursday Rob K __________________38.1 ____ Cambs _____ Thursday Carl46Wrexham _________ 38.1 ____ Heathrow ____ -- -- Team Squirrel ___________ 38.1 ____ London area __ -- -- Mattstoke _______________38.1 ____ Northolt _____ Thursday Feb1991Blizzard _________ 38.0 ____ Kew London _ Thursday Huntforsnow _____________38.0 ____ London ____ -- -- EdStone ________________37.9 ____ London ____ Thursday AWD ___________________37.9 ____ Kent ______ Thursday MrBartlettAzores _________ 37.9 ____ East Anglia _ Friday Ice Day _________________37.9 ____ Gravesend __-- -- Dave L _________________37.8 ____ Heathrow __ Thursday tomp456 ________________37.7 ____ London ____ Thursday IRememberAtlantic252 _____37.7 ____ Kent ______ Thursday FBR ___________________ 37.7 ____ Heathrow __ -- -- Norrance _______________ 37.7 ____ London ____ Thursday stratty __________________37.7 ____ London ____ Thursday Kirkcaldy Weather ________ 37.6 ____ Herts ______Thursday Emmett Garland __________37.6 ____ London ____ -- -- jamesbhx _______________ 37.6 ____ Mildenhall __ -- -- daenerys _______________ 37.6 ____ Heathrow ___Thursday AppleUK 123 ____________ 37.5 ____ London ____ Thursday Frost Hollow _____________37.5 ____ Heathrow ___ -- -- Paul Faulkner ____________37.4 ____ London ____ Thursday Weather Boy ____________ 37.4 ____ Heathrow ___ Thursday Crewe Cold _____________ 37.4 ____ Heathrow ___ Thursday Mr Frost ________________ 37.3 ____ Maidstone __ Thursday Noahjoe ________________ 37.3 ____ London ____ Thursday ThundersnowDays ________37.3 ____ Kew _______ -- -- Danm __________________37.3 ____ London _____ Thursday DR(S)NO _______________37.3 ____ Dartford ____ Thursday alderc __________________37.3 ____ Wattisham __ Thursday Lauren _________________ 37.3 ____ Gravesend __ Thursday No balls like Snow balls ____ 37.2 ____ Kent _______Thursday mb018538 _______________37.2 ____ Heathrow ___ -- -- Beverley Lass ____________37.2 ____ London _____ Thursday Anthony147 _____________ 37.2 ____ Gravesend __ Thursday Kent Blizzard ____________ 37.2 ____ Gravesend __ Thursday kentspur ________________ 37.1 __ Dartford, Gravesham _ Thursday highpressure _____________37.1 ____ Sevenoaks Kent _ -- -- Quicksilver1989 __________ 37.1 ____ Heathrow ______ Thursday Daniel* _________________ 37.1 ____ Northolt ________Thursday shuggee ________________ 37.0 ____ Cambs _____ -- -- B87 ____________________37.0 ____ St James Park _ -- -- Dami ___________________36.9 ____ London ____ -- -- badgers01 ______________ 36.9 ____ Wisley, SRY _ Thursday scrat ___________________36.9 ____ East Malling __Thursday snowblizzard ____________ 36.9 ____ Heathrow ____Thursday weather-history __________ 36.9 ____ Northolt _____ Thursday Canadian Coops _________ 36.8 ____ London/Kent _ Thursday geordiesnow ____________ 36.8 ____ Heathrow ____ Thursday Beazley Blizzard _________ 36.8 ____ Heathrow ____ Thursday A Winter's Tale ___________ 36.7 ____ Heathrow ___ Thursday ChezWeather ____________36.7 ____ Kent _______ Thursday Stargazer _______________36.7 ____ Kew London _ Thursday Stuie W ________________ 36.6 ____ Cambridge __ Thursday DIS1970 _______________ 36.6 ____ Kent ________ -- -- MetWeather _____________ 36.3 ____ Kent _______ Thursday Agnostick _______________36.2 ____ Heathrow ____ Thursday Thundershine ____________35.9 ____ Wisley ______ Thursday Marcus_surfer ___________ 35.9 ____ Heathrow ____ Thursday Roger J Smith ___________ 35.7 ____ Heathrow ____ Thursday zmstorm ________________35.4 ____ Gravesend ___ -- -- Another Kent clipper ______ 35.4 ____ Herts _______ Thursday Cheeky_Monkey _________ 34.9 ____ Dartford _____Thursday spurskevin ______________ 34.8 ____ Heathrow ____ Thursday hillbilly __________________33.7 ____ Ashford _____ -- -- =============================================================== 132 entries so far __ deadline is mid-day (1200h) Tuesday __ you can still enter __ this table will be updated __ check your entry against this table but Paul's records are official in any case __ consensus (median) to date 38.2 C. __ only one entry has Friday as date, all others who selected a date said Thursday __ majority London area __ this table now extends to 0800h entries below (by edit)

35.7 Heathrow Thursday

EWP had reached 26 mm after 20th, probably around 32 mm now after heavy rainfalls in northwest, otherwise rather dry since that value posted. Next nine days on GFS 12z showing about 30 mm potential, once again heavier in north. Final values could now be boosted into 60s towards 70 mm (a provisional table was posted for 70 mm earlier). The GFS tendency is to go a bit high sometimes but many are still in the game at this point. CET seems headed for about 18.0 to 18.5, if we assume an average of 21 today to 31st, blended with current value of 16.9, that gives 18.5, likely to be a downward correction and the average may fall a bit short of 21 although not much.