Roger J Smith

EWP preliminary total confirmed at 148 mm. Here's the annual scoring file as posted earlier, with updates for November entries and October best combined forecast -- freeze, 9th CET and 8th EWP for combined low total of 17, then booferking, 11th and 9th for 20, Godber.1 was 21st and 1st for 22, equal to Steve Murr (20, 2). I haven't done the math but the November forecasts would need to be further apart than they were from the three leaders for any of them to change positions (similar forecasts can only score a certain amount of points different). This is the current top twenty for annual scoring with their November forecasts shown. Rank __ Forecaster _________ Points ____ Nov fcst _01 ___ Born from the Void ___ 83.1 ______ 128 mm _02 ___ Reef ______________ 77.1 ______ 120 mm _03 ___ J10 _______________ 72.4 ______ 105 mm _04 ___ weather-history ______68.1 _______ 90 mm _05 ___ Don _______________67.9 ______ 135 mm _06 ___ DR(S)NO ___________67.0 ______ 135 mm _07 ___ Godber.1 ___________ 64.6 ______ 96 mm _08 ___ Ed Stone ___________ 64.2 _____ 125 mm _09 ___ Stargazer ___________63.4 ______ 97 mm _10 ___ Mulzy ______________62.7 ______ 79 mm _11 ___ seaside 60 __________62.3 _______96 mm _12 ___ daniel* _____________61.3 _______96 mm _13 ___ Blast from the Past ___ 61.2 ______ 140 mm _14 ___ Stationary Front ______61.0 ______ 124 mm _15 ___ Midlands Ice Age _____60.0 ______ 102.5 mm _16 ___ JeffC ______________ 59.8 ______ 105 mm _17 ___ Feb1991Blizzard _____58.3 ______ 138 mm _18 ___ virtualsphere ________ 58.1 ______ 134 mm _19 ___ CheesepuffScott _____ 57.9 _______ 73.9 mm _20 ___ Kirkcaldy Weather ____56.9 ______ 122.2 mm ========================================================================= All annual scoring updates in this file: EWP20182019OCT.xlsx

Got that one into the table J10, meanwhile here are the daily normals and extremes with running CET extremes thrown in ... there was some discussion of Nov 1919 earlier, and you will see that the 14th set a record low value for daily mean CET to that point in the month (-1.4). The month also took some turns setting lowest running CET values after that, until colder outcomes were reached from 1786 and ultimately 1782. CET November 1981-2010 averages and 1772-2018 extremes ______________________________________________________ Date ____CET mean__CET cum____MAX ___________ MIN ______ CET running mean (extreme values) 01 Nov ___ 9.5 ______ 9.5 ______ 13.5 (1894,1982) __1.5 (1934) ___ 13.5 (1894,1982) _1.5 (1934) 02 Nov ___ 9.0 ______ 9.2 ______ 14.3 (1821) ______ 0.5 (1880) ___ 13.8 (1821, 1894)_2,3 (1880) 03 Nov ___ 9.0 ______ 9.2 ______ 15.0 (1996) ______ 1.9 (1820) ___ 13.6 (1894) _____ 2.6 (1880) 04 Nov ___ 8.5 ______ 9.0 ______ 14.2 (1946) _____0.8 (1845&48) _ 13.0 (1894) ______2,6 (1880) 05 Nov ___ 8.3 ______ 8.9 ______ 15.4 (1938) ______ 0.8 (1801) ___ 12.7 (1894) _____ 3.1 (1782, 1880) 06 Nov ___ 8.2 ______ 8.7 ______ 14.3 (2015) ______ 0.6 (1868) ___ 12.2 (1996) _____ 2,7 (1782) 07 Nov ___ 8.3 ______ 8.7 ______ 13.8 (2015) _____ --0.6 (1791) ___ 11.8 (1938) _____ 2.4 (1782) 08 Nov ___ 8.7 ______ 8.7 ______ 13.4 (1852) _____ --1.2 (1812) ___ 11.8 (1938) _____ 2.4 (1782) 09 Nov ___ 8.1 ______ 8.6 ______ 12.5 (1988) _____ --0.5 (1921) ___ 11.8 (1938) _____ 2.3 (1782) 10 Nov ___ 7.9 ______ 8.6 ______ 13.4 (1977) ______ 0.1 (1812) ___ 11.8 (2015) _____ 2.4 (1782) 11 Nov ___ 8.3 ______ 8.5 ______ 13.9 (2015) ______ 0.3 (1828) ___ 12.0 (2015) _____ 2.4 (1782) 12 Nov ___ 8.2 ______ 8.5 ______ 13.8 (1938,1947)_ --1.4 (1919) ___ 11.9 (1938,2015) _2.6 (1782) 13 Nov ___ 7.2 ______ 8.4 ______ 14.6 (1938) _____ --1.1 (1862) ___ 12.1 (1938) _____ 2.7 (1782, 1919) 14 Nov ___ 6.8 ______ 8.3 ______ 13.4 (1938) _____ --1.1 (1925) ___ 12.2 (1938) _____ 2.5 (1782, 1919) 15 Nov ___ 6.8 ______ 8.2 ______ 13.5 (1821) _____ --2.1 (1965) ___ 12.0 (1938) _____ 2.3 (1919) 16 Nov ___ 6.8 ______ 8.1 ______ 13.4 (1997) _____ --2.9 (1901) ___ 11.9 (1938) _____ 2.2 (1919) 17 Nov ___ 6.4 ______ 8.0 ______ 13.1 (1997) _____ --2.0 (1841) ___ 11.8 (1938) _____ 2.4 (1919) 18 Nov ___ 6.7 ______ 7.9 ______ 12.2 (1978) _____ --1.6 (1887) ___ 11.6 (1938) _____ 2.6 (1919) 19 Nov ___ 6.4 ______ 7.9 ______ 12.7 (1994) _____ --2.1 (1815) ___ 11,4 (1938) _____ 2.9 (1919) 20 Nov ___ 6.2 ______ 7.8 ______ 12.8 (2009) _____ --1.2 (1829) ___ 11.2 (1938) _____ 2.9 (1786) 21 Nov ___ 5.8 ______ 7.7 ______ 13.7 (1947) _____ --1.4 (1880) ___ 10.8 (1938) _____ 2.9 (1786) 22 Nov ___ 5.8 ______ 7.6 ______ 14.4 (1947) _____ --2.3 (1773) ___ 10.7 (1938) _____ 2.8 (1786) 23 Nov ___ 5.8 ______ 7.5 ______ 13.3 (1947) _____ --4.2 (1858) ___ 10.6 (1994) _____ 2.7 (1782) 24 Nov ___ 5.9 ______ 7.4 ______ 12.7 (1980) _____ --4.6 (1904) ___ 10.6 (1994) _____ 2.6 (1782) 25 Nov ___ 6.3 ______ 7.4 ______ 12.1 (1964) _____ --1.5 (1923) ___ 10.5 (1994) _____ 2.5 (1782) 26 Nov ___ 6.2 ______ 7.3 ______ 12.1 (1983) _____ --1.7 (1904) ___ 10.6 (1994) _____ 2.4 (1782) 27 Nov ___ 6.0 ______ 7.3 ______ 11.3 (1818) _____ --2.6 (1915) ___ 10.6 (1994) _____ 2.3 (1782) 28 Nov ___ 5.8 ______ 7.2 ______ 12.0 (1828) _____ --4.0 (2010) ___ 10.4 (1994) _____ 2.2 (1782) 29 Nov ___ 5.5 ______ 7.2 ______ 12.2 (1818) _____ --2.6 (1801) ___ 10.2 (1994) _____ 2.3 (1782) 30 Nov ___ 5.8 ______ 7.1 ______ 12.4 (2001) _____ --1.7 (1973) ___ 10.1 (1994) _____ 2.3 (1782) _________________________________________________________________

REPORT ON CONSENSUS and NORMALS SCORING for OCTOBER 2019 Dec 2018 _____________________________ Jan 2019 _____________________ Feb 2019 __________ ____FORECAST _ error __ rank __ points ____ FCST __ error__ rank _ points _____ FCST __ error __ rank __ points Consensus_ 5.0 __ -1.9 _ 32 to 32 _ 52.3 _____3.5 ___ -0.5 __16 to 18 _ 75.7 to 78.6 _ 4.0 __ -2.7 _ 33 to 37 _ 48.3 to 54.1 1989-2018*_4.9 __ -2.0 _ 33 to 33 _ 50.8 _____4.7 ___ +0.7 __21 to 23 _ 68.6 to 71.4 _ 4.9 __ -1.8 _ 14 to 14 _ 81.3 1981-2010__4.6 __ -2.3 _ 42 to 44 _ 33.8 to 36.9 _4.4 _ +0.4 __14 to 15 _ 80.0 to 81.4 _ 4.4 __ -2.3 _ 17 to 19 _ 74.2 to 77.0 March 2019 _____________________________ April 2019 _____________________ May 2019 ____FORECAST _ error __ rank __ points _____FCST_error _ rank __ points _______ FCST _ error _ rank __ points consensus _ 6.9 _ --0.9 _ 29 to 33 _ 48.4 to 54.8 _8.4 _ --0.7 _ 24 to 28 _ 55.9 to 62.3 _ 12.3 _ +1.2 _ 28 to 31 _ 50.0-55.0 1989-2018 _ 6.8 __ --1.0 _ 34 to 35 _ 46.2 to 47.8 _8.8 _ --0.3 _ 9 to 13 _ 80.3 to 86.9 __ 12.0 _ +0.9 _ 17 to 20 _ 68.3 to 73.3 1981-2010 _ 6.6 __ --1.2 _ 39 to 39 _ 39.7 ______8.5 _ --0.6 _ 20 to 23 _ 63.9 to 68.6 __ 11.7 _ +0.6 _ 11 to 11 _ 83.3 June 2019 __________________________________ July 2019 ______________________ August 2019 ____FORECAST __ error __ rank __ points _______ FCST _ error _ rank _ points ________ FCST _ error _ rank _ points consensus _ 15.0 _ +0.8 _ 27 to 31 _ 48.1 to 55.0 __ 17.0 _ -0.5 _ 19-24 __ 62.9 to 71.0 ____17.0 _ --0.1 __ 3 to 13 __ 81.0 to 96.8 1989-2018 _ 14.6 _ +0.4 _ 11 to 15 _ 75.8 to 82.7 __ 16.9 _ -0.6 _ 25-30 __ 53.2 to 61.3 ____16.5 _ --0.6 __38 to 43 __ 33.6 to 41.5 1981-2010 _ 14.5 _ +0.3 __ 6 to 10 _ 84.4 to 91.3 __ 16.7 _ -0.8 _ 34-39 __ 38.7 to 46.8 ____16.4 _ --0.7 __44 to 44 __ 32.0 to 32.0 ____________________________________________________________________________________________ September 2019 _____________________________ October 2019 _____________________ Average (11 months) ____FORECAST __ error __ rank __ points _______ FCST _ error _ rank ___ points _______ abs err __ rank __ points consensus ________ 0.0 _ 01 to 01_ 100.0 ________ 10.9 _ +0.9 _ 29 to 34 _ 45.0 to 53.3 __ 0.94 __ 22 to 25 _ 60.3 to 66.5 1989-2018 ________-0.1 _ 02 to 11 _ 84.6 to 98.5 ___11.0 _ +1.0 _ 35 to 36 _ 41.7 to 43.3 __ 0.85 __ 21 to 25 _ 63.7 to 67.1 1981-2010 ________-0.3 _ 20 to 25 _ 63.0 to 70.7 ___10.7 _ +0.7 _ 24 to 26 _ 58.3 to 61.7 __ 0.93 __ 26 to 28 _ 58.5 to 62.3 =========================================================================================== None of the robots did particularly well in October (green type above) and the contest averages for eleven months only changed slightly, with our consensus performing a bit better than 1981-2010 overall and not quite as well as 1989-2018. That applies more to scoring than absolute error where consensus and 1981-2010 are virtually tied. The average error (not absolute) for the best-performing 1989-2018 is +0.3, meaning that predicting 0.3 above that statistic would generate the least robotic error. The improvement is only 0.05 deg on absolute error (to 0.80). That is probably better than most of the field but not the top ten. Taking any other standard approach based on normals would introduce larger errors going in either direction. An average of 1989-2018 and consensus (if you knew that beforehand as you might going at the deadline) would yield an average absolute error of 0.76 degrees. Consensus this contest year has been too high (warmer than reality) on three occasions (May, June, October), spot on in September, and too low (cooler than reality) the other seven times. The 1989-2018 average (which played as 1988-2017 in Dec) was too high on four occasions and too low on seven although very close in September. January was the one month that 1989-2018 was different in sign from consensus. 1981-2010 matched 1989-2018 in this regard although never getting closer than +0.3 in June and -0.3 in September. The only month where consensus really did better than the recent normals was August, I think any improvements in any other months were so marginal as to be scientifically insignificant. Thus I can give you the good news that on the whole, we have no demonstrated skill (the leaders might, the field does not). And since I use median to derive consensus (which reduces the impact of outliers) it would probably look even worse on us if we used mean unless the outliers are equally preposterous in both directions. So how does that compare to EWP forecasting? Over there, consensus is scoring a bit better than the recent normals. We are showing more skill at precip forecasting than temperature forecasting. I suppose one reason for that might be that obvious early events can create insurmountable advantages for rainfall. I would argue that what the field is really forecasting is what they see on the 16-day GFS (with hunchcast projections beyond that limit) so to the extent that the 16-day GFS handles precip reasonably well, the first half totals are already in view of forecasters who then need to add on what they think will come beyond the event horizon. If that known quantity is twice normal, then consensus is very likely to outperform normal. If it looks bone dry, there is also an advantage. Other cases are probably less advantageous for consensus. An event like the late September pattern change can give normals the advantage.

If 10.0 is confirmed, then the top scoring CET forecasts will be these: 1. Brmbrmcar (10.0, entry 28) 2. Roger J Smith (10.0, entry 32) 3. weather-history (10.0, entry 32) 4. Feb1991Blizzard (10.1, entry 23) 5. Walsall Wood Snow (9.9, entry 31) 6. daniel* (9.9, entry 33) 7. damianslaw (10.1, entry 35) 8. Beet (9.9, entry 46) 9. freeze (9.8, entry 24) 10. jonboy (9.8, entry 40) 11. booferking (10.2, entry 54) 12. CheesepuffScott (10.3, entry 2) 13. DiagonalRedLine (9.7, entry 7) 14. Blast from the Past (9.7, entry 14) 15. Prolonged SnowLover (10.4, entry 11) 16. Kentish Man (9.6, entry one day late) ===================================================== (edit for confirmed EWP 148 mm) For the EWP, will confirm this tomorrow but looks like 145-150 mm for the final total, (it was 148) therefore most likely leader is Godber.1 at 150 mm followed closely by Steve Murr at 140 mm. Virtualsphere appears to be third at 134 mm, Born from the Void (130 mm) fourth and tied on points with SteveB (167 mm) due to a late penalty to BFTV, then we have coldest winter at 123 mm (sixth), three entries at 120 mm and I Remember Atlantic 252 at 188 mm. Godber.1 and Steve Murr may then be tied for combined rank totals, as Godber (10.5) finished 21st due to three earlier entries as well as Steve Murr (9.5) who finished 20th in CET. So their ranks both add up to 22. However two closer CET forecasts had better combined ranks, freeze and booferking had 2nd and 3rd shots at 120 mm behind Blast from the Past, those look like being 8th and 9th overall, for combined ranks of 17 and 20 in the two contests I will report on the misadventures of the three robotic forecasters later.

Table of entries for November 2019 _ number in brackets shows order of entry _ second number is for EWP when different from CET order of entry _ 13.0 __ 200.0 __ Lettucing Gutted (16) _____________6.8 __ 145.0 __ coldest winter (26) _____ 9.2 __ 120.0 __ syed2878 (24) ___________________6.8 __ ------ __ damianslaw (29) _______ 9.1 __ 198.0 __ I Remember Atlantic 252 (8) ________6.8 ___ ------ __ Mark Bayley (37) ______ 8.8 __ 148.0 __ Summer of 95 (62) _______________ 6.8 __ 125.0 __ EdStone (54, 24.5) _____ 8.2 ___ 55.0 __ SLEETY (4) _____________________6.7 __ 105.0 __ Jeff C (1) _____________ 8.2 ___ 72.0 __ Bobd29 (9) _____________________ 6.7 ___ 42,0 __ DiagonalRedLine (10) ___ 7.9 __ 120.0 __ Reef (49) _______________________6.7 ___ 74.0 __ V for Very Cold (52) _____ 7.7 __ ------ __ Relativistic (21) ___________________6.6 __ 140.0 __ Blast from the Past (31) __ 7.7 __ 128.0 __ stewfox (25) ____________________ 6.6 ___ 90.0 __ weather-history (38) _____ 7.6 __ ------ __ Jonathan F. (14) __________________6.6 ___ 96.0 __ daniel* (61) ____________ 7.5 ___ 85.0 __ AppleUK 123 (11) _______________ 6.5 ___ 97.0 __ Stargazer (39) __________ 7.5 ___ 90.0 __ freeze (34)______________________6.5 __ 125.0 __ DAVID SNOW (45) _______ 7.4 __ 122.0 __ SteveB (7) ______________________6.5 ___ 90.0 __ Norrance (47) ____________________ 7.4 __ ------ __ Man with Beard (41) _______________6.4 __ 112.5 __ Polar Gael (22) ___________________ 7.4 __ 103.7 __ 1989-2018 average ______________ 6.4 ___ 77.0 __ timmytour (30) ____________ 7.3 __ ------ __ snowray (36) _____________________6.4 __ ------ __ Prolonged SnowLover (53) 7.2 __ 111.0 __ Emmett Garland (2) _______________6.4 ___ 79.0 __ Mulzy (57) ____________ 7.2 ___ 65.0 __ Weather26 (5) ___________________6.3 __ 122.2 __ Kirkcaldy Weather (13) __ 7.2 __ 119.0 __ brmbrmcar (19) __________________ 6.3 __ ------ __ Quicksilver1989 (63) ____ 7.2 __ ------ __ Summer Sun (23) _________________ 6.2 __ 135.0 __ Don (56) ______________ 7.2 ___ 80.0 __ The PIT (43) ____________________ 6.1 ___ 69.0 __ nn2013 (5) _____________ 7.2 ___ ------ __ Froze were the Days (58) __________6.0 ___ ------ __ Duncan McAlister (16) ___ 7.2 ___ 105.0 __ J10 (L1-1) ______________________ 7.1 __ 134.0 __ virtualsphere (18) ________________ 5.8 __ ------ __ Walsall Wood Snow (20) ___ 7.1 __ ------ __ Summer Blizzard (35) ______________5.8 __ 155.0 __ jonboy (40) ____________ 7.1 __ ------ __ dancerwithwings (42) ______________ 5.8 ___ 85.0 __ Steve Murr (46) _________ 7.1 __ 128.0 __ Born from the Void (64) ____________5.6 __ 170.4 __ Roger J Smith (27) _____ 7.1 __ 100.3 __ 1981-2010 average _______________ 5.5 ___ 89.0 __ Booferking (51) ________ 7.0 __ 138.0 __ Feb1991Blizzard (28) ______________5.4 ___ ------ __ Kentish Man (32) ________ 7.0 __ 135.0 __ DR(S)NO (33) ____________________5.4 ___ 96.0 __ Godber.1 (55) ___________ 7.0 __ 124.0 __ Stationary Front (48) _______________5.2 __ 110.0 __ Robbie Garrett (4) ________ 7.0 __ 109.0 __ Beet (50) ________________________ 4.9 ___ 71.0 __ Radiating Dendrite (3) _____________ 7.0 __ 134.0 __ davehsug (59) ____________________ 6.9 ___ 73.9 __ CheesePuffScott (15, 6.5 ) __________ 6.9 __ 102.5 __ Midlands Ice Age (44) ______________ 6.9 ___ 96.0 __ seaside60 (60) ___________________ 6.9 __ 109.5 ___ consensus _____________________ __ 64 on-time forecasts plus one that is one day late ... consensus (median) __ 6.9 ==================================================================================== EWP forecasts in order 200 _LG ... 198 _IRA252 ... 170.4 _RJS ... 155 _jon ... 148 sum95 ... 145 _cw ... 140 _BFTP ... 138 Feb ...135 _DRS, Don 134 _vir, dave ... 128 _stew, BFTV ... 125 _EdS, DS ... 124 _SF ... 122.2 _KW ... 122_SteveB ... 120 _syed, Reef, 119 _brm ... 112.5 PG ... 111 _EG ... 110 RG ... 109.5 _con ... 109 _Beet ... 105 _Jeff, J10 ... 103.7 _89-18 ... 102.5 _MIA 100.4 _81-10 ... 97_star ... 96 _Godb, sea, dan* ... 90_fre, w-h, Norr ... 89 _boof ... 85 _App, SMur ... 80 _Pit ... 79 _Mul 77 _tim ... 74 _V vc ... 73.9 _CPS .. 72 _Bob .... 71 _ Rad ... 69 _nn ... 65 _wx26 ... 55 SLE ... 42 _DRL ... __ 49 on-time forecasts, plus one that is one day late, median (consensus) 109.5 mm __

Table edit froze solid so have deleted this post (later entries note 5.9 still not taken)

I have 10.0 so the obvious answer is 9.9

EWP was 140 mm after 29 days, looks like it might have added 2 mm on 30th (rained in Cornwall and Devon, parts of south Wales, dry elsewhere). Some further rain will fall before midnight if that's their cutoff, with moderate rain on radar in southeast Ireland at present time. May end up so close to 148 mm that I won't need to work on the excel file (until the final numbers and previous months get their usual tweak for the "ultimate scoring" feature). Going over to November to harvest the forecasts for table and updating the EWP excel file.

EWP "only" increased to 138 mm with 26th not adding as much as 24h precip map suggested, then has remained almost dry since then. Looks to add a few mm with heavy rain confined to Cornwall and timing on overnight rain at end of month probably too late for this month's account. Could end up 145 mm or thereabouts.

5.6 and 170.4 mm.

EWP was up to 135 mm halfway through the recent rainstorm (end of 25th) and the additional amounts are probably at least 15 mm (trying to blend together maps with slightly different time frames) so we have reached 150 mm. Now the last day of the month looks wet too with perhaps 15 mm more to come, placing the end total around 165 mm. Never know if that system speeds up or juices up, we might get even closer to the top three forecasts but right now SteveB at 167 mm is in the driver's seat with I Remember Atlantic 252 at 188 mm, LG at his usual 200 mm and me at 215.7 mm (if we get to 167 than my score zooms up quite a bit, passing everyone between 80 and 118 mm, LG makes more modest gains too) almost all other scores are probably now set within 0.2 to 0.5 of where they could possibly end up with so few left to change for the better (see previous post for excel file set to 148 mm).

The EWP seems likely to finish above 140 mm now, and I have reset the provisional scoring for 148 mm. The updated excel file (attached) has a new feature, scroll to the right to column CV to find the list of "best combined forecasts" of CET and EWP on a monthly basis from start of the EWP contests in Dec 2017 to last month. This month we'll have to wait and see. The revised scoring only affected a few rankings from the earlier provisional (118.9 mm). Don and weather-history exchanged places in 4th (now w-h) and 5th (now Don) and Godber.1 moved up quite a few ranks to 7th with his top score for October. SteveB also gained several ranks. Otherwise it was mostly a case of a few going up 2-3 and most going down by one or not at all. Anything higher than 148 will have little further effect on the scoring outcome. As we are around 105 mm now, even a soaker on Friday-Saturday is going to have to do the business to get us to 148 mm and then there seems to be not much if any further rainfall unless the Tuesday-Wednesday system now expected to stay west comes closer before end of the month. As to CET, looks like it might finish around 10.6 before corrections and 10.3 or 10.4 afterwards? Depends on track of the Saturday low to some extent. EWP20182019OCT.xlsx

Yes if you mean 1961-90 normals as used by the Met Office, although May 2019 and October 2018 were both equal to those (zero anomalies). Those two as well as September 2018, June and January 2019 came in below the 1981-2010 normals as shown in this table: Month _________ CET ______ 1961-90 avg __ 1971-2000 avg __ 1981-2010 avg March 2018 _____ 4.9 _______ 5.7 ____________ 6.3 ___________ 6.6 Sept 2018 ______13.7 _______13.6 ___________ 13.7 __________ 14.1 Oct 2018 _______10.6 _______10.6 ___________ 10.4 __________ 10.7 Jan 2019 _______ 4.0 ________ 3.9 ____________ 4.2 ___________ 4.4 May 2019 ______11.1 ________11.1 ___________ 11.3 __________ 11.7 June 2019 _____ 14.2 ________14.1 ___________ 14.1 _________ 14.5 Oct 2019 _______ ???? ______ 10.6 ____________ 10.4 _________ 10.7 (worth mentioning that my averages for 1971-2000 and 1981-2010 are based on means of monthly means while I think the Met Office must use averages of mean monthly max and min, since both May and June round out 0.1 higher in my data set despite having the same monthly values (just cross-checked that), the averages for May and June are 11.163 and 14.157 indicating that there were totals of monthly means in excess of 11.15 and 14.15 by four and two respectively, but as some of those might have been 0.05 high as rounded averages of max and min, it would account for the different outcomes. Therefore some of my 1971-2000 and 1981-2010 calculated means might be 0.1 higher than theirs as well (since I don't have a source to check I can't say). All averages of monthly means taken at random would be 0.3 too high, if we assume half of them hide a rounding and half don't. For example, the June 1961-90 average is based on a surplus of 4.7 degrees over 14 x 30. But that 4.7 might contain (at random) 15 cases of rounding upwards by .05, or .75, so it is actually 3.95 degrees, which divided by 30 is .13 not .16. The actual number of rounded cases is unknown but would likely fall between 10 and 20 almost every time. So if you ever use the data and derive averages that way, be aware that official averages can be marginally lower because they are based on the net average of max and min where the rounding is only done one time rather than 30.

Regarding the 1981-2010 average vs 1961-90, they only end up 0.1 apart at the end of the month (10.7 vs 10.6) but the running average for 1991-2020 is converging on 10.9 or 11.0.

For months of any name, the last one was Jan 2014 (184.6), although Dec 2015 and Jan 2016 were both just under 150. If we beat that, then the next high going back in time is Nov 2009 at 192.1 mm. Beating that we would have to go back to Nov 1940 (196.5 mm). At that point there would be three wetter months back in the more distant past, one October (1903) and the other two Novembers (1770, 1852). The wettest of them, 1903, produced 218.3 mm. The most recent October to surpass 150 mm was 2013 with 157.6 mm. Today's GFS ten-day drops down a bit to 30 mm (we are at 100 now) although it still brings two rain events through on Friday and Monday. I think the CET will finish around 10.7 given the current charts and an adjustment factor of 0.2.

EWP was at 99 mm after 18 days and added one or two on Saturday to reach 100 mm. The GFS has backed off its earlier dry look with two rainfall events expected now before the month ends. The additional amounts look to be around 40-50 mm potentially, so now we're heading into the top portions of the forecast set, although not yet high enough to rescue mine from a relatively low score. Will say 150 mm the new over-under. There are only these seven forecasts above the annual leader (BFTV) with 130 mm who looks to increase his lead now as these seven players are all below 15th place currently. The high forecasts are shown in order of departure from the target of 150 mm. This does not mean they are top seven scores, the larger departures here will be outscored by quite a few below 130 mm unless the final outcome goes higher than 150. There's a pretty good chance that the first five in this list will end up in the top five to ten in scoring but in what order yet to be determined. 150 mm __ Godber.1 140 mm __ Steve Murr 134 mm __ virtualsphere 167 mm __ SteveB 130 mm __ Born from the Void 188 mm __ I Remember Atlantic 252 200 mm __ Lettucing Gutted 215.7 mm __ Roger J Smith

__________________ _ _ _ This month is the final stage of the 2018-19 competition year. CET November historical information in part 1 below, EWP in part two. Good luck !! C.E.T. forecast competition -- averages and extremes for November 15.4 ... warmest day (5th, 1938) 14.4 ... warmest day in second half (22nd, 1947) 10.1 ... warmest Nov 1994 9.6 ... second warmest Nov 2011 9.5 ... tied third warmest Nov 1818 and 2015 9.4 ... fifth warmest Nov 1938 9.3 ... sixth warmest Nov 1743 9.2 ... seventh warmest Nov 1730 9.1 ... eighth warmest Nov 1817 8.9 ... ninth warmest Nov 1881 8.7 ... tied tenth warmest Nov 1939 and 2009 8.6 ... tied 12th warmest Nov 2014 (with 1821) 8.5 ... ... ... ... 2002 8.4 ... ... ... ... 1997 8.3 ... ... ... ... 2018 8.2 ... ... ... ... 8.1 ... ... ... ... 2003, 2006 8.0 ... ... ... ... 1982, 1984 7.9 ... ... ... ... 1999 7.8 ... ... ... ... 1981, 1986 7.7 ... ... ... ... 1995, 2004 7.6 ... ... ... ... 7.5 ... ... ... ... 1983, 2001 ,.. ... ... ---- average of 2001-2018 ---- ... --- average of past ten Novembers --- 7.4 ... ... ... ... 1992 ... ... ... ... ...... ---- average of 1991-2018 ---- ... ---- average of 1989-2018 ---- 7.3 ... ... ... ... 2007 ... ... ... ... ...... 7.2 ... ... ... ... 7.1 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... .. ---- average of 1981-2010 ---- 7.0 ... ... ... ... 2000, 2008 6.9 ... ... ... ... 1990 ... ... ... ... ...... ---- average of 1971-2000 ---- 6.8 ... ... ... ... 1991, 2012, 2017 6.7 ... ... ... ... 6.6 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...... ---- average of 1961-1990 ---- 6.5 ... ... ... ... 1987 ... ... ... ... ...... ---- average of 1901-2000 ---- 6.4 ... ... ... ... 6.3 ... ... ... ... 6.2 ... ... ... ... 1989, 1998, 2005, 2013 6.1 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ---- average of all years 1659-2018 ---- (6.08) 6.0 ... ... ... ... 5.9 ... ... ... ... 1996 ... ... ... ...... ---- average of 1801-1900 ---- 5.8 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...... ---- average of 1701-1800 ---- 5.6 ... ... ... ... 2016 ... ... ...... ... ---- average of 1659-1700 ---- 5,2 .... coldest since 1993 were 1988, 2010 (tied 90th coldest) 4.6 .... coldest since 1985 was 1993 (tied 52nd coldest) 4.1 .... coldest in recent years (tied 28th overall) 1985 3.3 .... tied eighth coldest 1740, 1746, 1786, 1919, 1923 3.2 .... tied sixth coldest 1862 with 1910 3.1 .... fifth coldest Nov 1851 3.0 .... fourth coldest Nov 1684 2.9 .... third coldest Nov 1807 2.8 .... second coldest Nov 1915 2.3 .... coldest Nov 1782 --0.6 ... earliest sub-zero mean (7th, 1791) --2.1 ... coldest in first half (15th, 1965) --4.6 ... coldest day (24th, 1904) __________________________________________________ colour coded warmest, average and coldest since 1981 -- due to ties, 13, 14 and 11 in these categories. daily records are for the period 1772 to 2018 monthly extreme values are for the period 1659 to 2018 Enter your CET forecast by Thursday, October 31st at midnight, or with increasing late penalties on the first three days of November. =============================================================================== (2) Optional E.W.P. forecast contest -- November 2019 __ contest is scored using Hadley EWP data __ __ winter month snowfall is converted by liquid equivalent, roughly 10:1 reduction factor, e.g. 10 cm snow = 10 mm precip __ 202.5 mm __ 1852 _ wettest 1766-2017 ... also second wettest month to Oct 1903 200.8 mm __ 1770 _ 2nd wettest ... also third wettest month overall 196.5 mm __ 1940 _ wettest of 20th century... 1929 had 195.9 mm 192.1 mm __ 2009 _ wettest since 1981 103.7 mm __ mean for 1989-2018 ... 100.4 mm __ mean for 1981-2010 93.8 mm __ mean for all data 1766-2018 50.2 mm __ 1988 _ driest since 1981 23.1 mm ___1805 _ second driest 1766-2018 17.0 mm ___1945 _ driest 1766-2018 ___________________________ ** __________________________ Recent November EWP ... 10-year average is 111.4 mm ... : 2018 _ 104.9 ... ... 2017 _ 81.0 ... ... 2016 _ 116.6 ... ... 2015 _ 126.7 ... ... 2014 _ 126.8 2013 _ 79.2 ... ... 2012 _ 135.8 ... ... 2011 _ 52.9 ... ... 2010 _ 97.5 ... ... 2009 _ 192.1 >>> Enter your EWP forecast in mm with your CET forecast, same deadlines

The EWP had reached 84 mm as of the 16th and probably added about 10 mm to 12z today when the GFS ten-day estimate begins. That is quite low for most of the grid, rising to 20-30 mm in parts of Wales, so it could be adding as little as 5-10 mm. The charts for 28th to 31st are also dry. The grand total from this is little more than 100 mm, a bit lower than the provisional used in the table I posted earlier but I'll wait to the end of the month to issue an update as this difference is not going to move many scores especially near the top. The rest of the month looks a bit colder despite a few mild days here and there, would still be thinking mid to high 10s for a finish. There has been very little variation in the mean daily temperatures so far this month, the range being only 5.8 deg (from 7.8 to 13.6). I will revisit that after the final values to see how it compares with the lowest ranges. October 1817, the coldest of the era with daily temperatures available, had a monthly max of only 9.0 (on the 30th), and had a lowest value of 3.6 on the 2nd (which set a daily record) so the range there was 5.4, one at least therefore likely to beat this year's small range after temperatures are finalized. Lest it be thought that the sun had run out of energy at that point, November 1817 then broke the 10 degree mark on 14 of the first 18 days and beat the October max on two more for a total of 16, December first was also milder than any day in October 1817, as were 12th Jan and 25th Feb of 1818. March 1818 was not able to produce a warmer day however. Just scrolling down the daily temperatures it is quite easy to pick out Octobers with very few mild days (because of the visual difference between two and three digit numbers) so without doing a big number crunch, I could see that these other Octobers had an unusual lack of warm days ... with October 1817 at zero days above 10, the other contenders were 1784 (2 days above 10), 1808 (also two, 5th-6th Oct, and no more 10+ days all year or through most of the winter, one each in Feb and Mar although barely in each case, then also none in April 1809, the next time two consecutive days broke 10 was 7th and 8th of May, 1809). We never think of 1808-1809 as one of those classic cold winters but that has to be the greatest absence of warmth for the winter half year, seven entire months with two days at or above 10 (and only 10.1 tops on 23rd of March). The futility list then resumes with 3 days of 10+ in October 1820 and also 1852, 1885, and 1892; since then the lowest number and second place to 1817, has been one day (26th) in October 1974. The cold October of 1993 had ten days at or above 10 (all before the 13th when it turned cold) and few others have gone lower than half of their days above 10. In modern times about 80% or more of days in October exceed 10 degrees and the first month to get all 31 was October 1945. Since then 2001, 05 and 06 have matched that feat. Of the four of them, the lowest daily mean in each case was 10.1, 10.4, 10.1 and 10.2 so that the warmest October (2001) takes this award as well. _____________________________________________________________________________ FYI, the November thread will be posted by Saturday morning, I am going to work on it later today and post it this evening here.

There are some uneven details in the recent warming, both for Britain's CET and for the Toronto records which run from 1840 to present. I have just finished a project updating daily records that were published in 1967 for what was then 128 years of data. The same location (downtown Toronto, not the airport) has continued to record temperatures and precipitation, so I looked through the last 52 years to update the daily and monthly data. What I found was rather unexpected. Daily temperature records have been falling much more frequently in the shoulder seasons (Nov-early Dec, and late Feb-early April). Only the most robust record temperatures in those intervals have survived. But almost all the mid-winter, late spring, summer, and early autumn records are unmodified. Average temperatures at this location without adjustment like the CET for urban heat island, have risen steadily since 1890, except for the period from 1960 to 1982 which turned colder at times (but not back to the levels of the 19th century). This appears to be a combined influence of a naturally warming climate (after 1890) and the urban heat island once Toronto became a large city and surrounded the location of the weather station (which started out in a rural setting in the 1840s to 1870s). The frequency of record lows already begins to drop off after 1890, and there were not many more of those from 1921 to 1967 than since. Record lows can still occur, but it takes an exceptionally cold air mass with enough wind speed to overcome the urban heat island. There have been notable peaks in temperature since the colder mid-1990s. Those were often related to strong El Nino events. The recent peaks were around 1998, 2002, 2006, 2012, and 2016. When Britain had the record warmth in Nov-Dec 2015, Toronto was also setting records. But other trends go well out of phase. For example, winters of 1993 and 1994 were notably cold. Winters of 2010 and 2011 varied from mild to rather cold. I think the mechanics of the recent warming, whatever its ratio of causes in natural, solar and human realms, must be fairly complex. Some parts of the year have responded differently (on average of the data so far), but this could be random chance too. Just like in Britain, August has not done much to keep up since 1995, and there hasn't been a new daily record in that month, with better warming outcomes in July and September. You would think that a warming climate would really lengthen the summer and make August even more similar to July than previously, but the opposite seems to be holding, with August quite moderate. Rainfall and snowfall records have continued to be set at about the expected pace. There is no real evidence in this Toronto data for more extreme weather events. The all-time rainfall and snowfall records have been approached but not surpassed, about what you might expect at random when adding 52 years to 128 existing years. The number of daily rainfall and snowfall records broken is about what you might expect, one-third or thereabouts. Nor has there been any real change in the frequency of drought from these data sets. To be honest, if there wasn't a lot of publicity for a theory of AGW, you might look at the temperature data and say, the urban heat island has continued to increase slowly. But if we looked at some less urban stations with long periods, there would probably be a faint signal of warming increasing since 1990, even though it was generally present since about 1970 except for a brief interval 1978-82 (Oct-82 as Dec 82 was notably warm). If I applied the same corrections that they use for the CET to this data set, it might adjust some rankings and remove a small number of records while adding overnight minimum records, several close calls have happened in recent years that I am sure would have set records without the urban effect. December has had several recent lows that would have been daily records on quite a few adjacent days but happened to fall against the more robust older records. For example, -11 F on Dec 25, 1980 would have broken the Dec 24 record low of -9 but lost to -17 on its own date.

EWP was 71 mm after 13 days, added about 8 to 10 yesterday (20-30 mm swath covering about a third of the country) so that would take it to around 80 going into the GFS-10 day outlook period which promises only 20-25 as a grid average, once again wetter in parts of the west than elsewhere. Much of that would be coming tomorrow to Friday. The last six days of the GFS run beyond that estimate start out cold and relatively dry, and turn very wet on the 31st at the end of the run. Verbatim this would add perhaps 30-40 mm, for a grand total of 130-145 mm. However, the cold spell is far enough out and of long duration that I suspect any downgrade would likely bring about a possibly wetter period in general although perhaps without that big amount at the end, so the main unknown at this point is how far past 100 mm we end up going, I think almost all forecasts above the 119 mm that I used for the provisional table have some chance, and at this point anything below 80 will probably be locked into the points shown there or slightly lower if a few of the high forecasts get a boost, having said that, there aren't too many above 130 anyway so the lower end of the points except for very high amounts would probably now be almost locked in. There could be some changes around the middle to top of the scoring estimates if amounts drift a lot higher. I would agree that pressure will fall on the CET to push it below 10 if the charts verify, but as we know, cold spells on GFS past day seven are not a high probability outcome, even so, any kind of clearing of skies for a few nights might get the CET down towards 10 before adjustments. So I'm thinking 10 might be the over/under at this point. But 9.0 is within reach on those charts.

Here's my contribution to the discussion: The following is a preliminary long-range forecast for winter 2019-20, If it seems necessary, I will amend or update this forecast in mid-November. This appears likely to be a season where high energy weather events will be grappling with a fairly robust supply of colder air at high latitudes. Britain and Ireland can expect a very unsettled winter with frequent low pressure systems steered by a strong jet stream running a little south of its average position. This favours a split north-south outcome where the south is often on the milder side of the storm track getting strong southwest winds and rain, while the north is more open to snow, ice and easterly winds. The north-south divide may be enhanced by the likely appearance of strong blocking highs over eastern Scandinavia and western Russia. I don't think these are going to dominate the circulation but they will come into conflict with the zonal regime at times, forcing it to dive southeast around 5-10W and into France and the western Mediterranean. This may be another winter of heavy Alpine snowfalls and frequent severe cold spells in Germany and possibly Belgium and Netherlands into northeast France. Battleground conditions seem likely at times across southeast England into Wales and central to northern Ireland. Frequent snow events may occur in northern and even central England, and southern Scotland, also Northern Ireland and some adjacent parts of the Republic of Ireland. Some heavy precipitation is likely in this scenario, heavy rain in most cases in southern England, especially the southwest, and the southern third of Ireland (Munster and south Leinster). A set-up like this may not remain steady-state, but could fluctuate north-south bringing the milder conditions further north at times, while setting the battleground further south at other times. However, the tendency will be for temperatures to average closer to normal or above in the southwest, and below normal in Scotland. This pattern could evolve into a colder February or even March if the strong jet stream loses energy, then the blocking may be able to assert more control. North America can expect a rather harsh winter in general, with severe cold waves at times, colliding with an active storm track from Texas northeast towards Virginia and southeastern New England. There could therefore be heavier than average snowfalls in the Ohio Valley, Midwest, and inland Mid-Atlantic to northeastern states. A pattern like this would not rule out one or two coastal blizzards in the mix. The west will be dominated by persistent cold high pressure trapped in valleys, and coastal areas will have a fairly average winter with a lot of rain, low cloud and moderate southeast winds. Snow on western mountains will be generally a bit above average but might be twice normal in the southern Rockies and northern Arizona around Flagstaff. Drought will break during the winter for California. This may also be one of those winters where extreme cold moves south from Siberia into China, Korea and Japan.

The EWP was already 55 mm after eleven days and probably sits closer to 65 now with heavy rain across southern England on the 12th. The GFS ten-day estimate is around 30 mm with some pockets of much heavier rain in the west. Most of this appears likely to fall on Monday-Tuesday so we won't have long to wait to find out if that estimate is on track. The GFS from day 11 to day 16 (29th 12z) is relatively dry looking, so would add only 5 mm from that. The grand total of all these would be 100 mm. However, the dry trend near end of the run is by no means guaranteed. As to the CET, the pattern looks similar going forward, seasonal trends will force the current numbers down slightly but can't see it going much below 11 even towards the end which does look a bit colder than average. But after corrections likely to be in the mid to high 10s if these maps verify.

EWP was 36 mm to 7th and probably close to 40 mm now, looks to add around 50 mm next ten days (possibly more, certainly more in Wales and southwest England). That gets us to around 90 mm by 19th-20th. Maps from then to 26th seem to have 20-30 mm minimum with heavy rain indicated at the end of the run. So if that verified, we would be around 110-120 mm with about six days to go in a wet pattern. Possibly higher forecasts stand a chance of doing well, but early days as they say. My guess for the CET by end of the run would be 10.5 to 11.0.

Still in this older thread for CEP records ... new daily record on 30th, the 28th failed to break a higher mark. Also new 10-day total records for 29-30 Sep and provisionally very likely to 3 Oct (all five broken were in 1976). These tables are back on page 3 of this thread. Eventually all of the better tables will find their way over to the 1772-2018 thread which has most of the temperature data now.

The tables have been updated for confirmed August and September values. The commentary about projections for 1991-2020 have been updated now that we know the needed values for various outcomes for those months.