Roger J Smith

EWP will finish on 137 or perhaps 138 mm, it was 137 mm to 29th and yesterday added only small amounts outside of Cornwall which had 10-20 mm falls. Either way, Feb1991Blizzard has the closest forecast at 138 mm. Will confirm those details tomorrow when they post a provisional value for the month. Meanwhile, from the table of entries, this is my pre-confirmation list of top CET scores in order. Don clearly has the best combined forecast as he scored fourth highest points in EWP as well as taking the top CET score. I have left in the EWP values of these top 18 CET scores. Fcst _ Error __ EWP __ Forecaster (order of entry) 6.2 __ 0.0 ___ 135.0 __ Don (56) 6.1 __--0.1 ____69.0 __ nn2013 (5) 6.3 __+0.1 ___ 122.2 __Kirkcaldy Weather (13) 6.3 __+0.1 ___ ------ ___Quicksilver1989 (63) 6.0 __--0.2 ___ ------ __ Duncan McAlister (16) 6.4 __+0.2 ___ 112.5 __ Polar Gael (22) 6.4 __+0.2 ____77.0 __ timmytour (30) 6.4 __+0.2 ___ ------ __ Prolonged SnowLover (53) 6.4 __+0.2 ____79.0 __ Mulzy (57) 6.5 __+0.3 ____97.0 __ Stargazer (39) 6.5 __+0.3 ___ 125.0 __ DAVID SNOW (45) 6.5 __+0.3 ____90.0 __ Norrance (47) 5.8 __--0.4 ___ ------ __ Walsall Wood Snow (20) 6.6 __+0.4 ___ 140.0 __ Blast from the Past (31) 6.6 __+0.4 ____90.0 __ weather-history (38) 5.8 __--0.4 ___ 155.0 __ jonboy (40) 5.8 __--0.4 ____85.0 __ Steve Murr (46) 6.6 __+0.4 ____96.0 __ daniel* (61) ================================================== I will update the robotic forecaster saga later.

C.E.T. forecasts for December 2019 (with EWP, separate table places them in order) _ (number in brackets refers to order of entry) 12.0 __ 200.0 __ Lettucing Gutted (12) __________________4.5 __ 105.0 __ JeffC (11) ___________________ 8.7 __ 156.0 __ I Remember Atlantic252 ( 3 ) ____________ 4.5 __ --- --- __ Quicksilver1989 (L1-1) _________ 7.9 __ --- --- __ Carl46Wrexham (35) ___________________ 4.5 ___ 77.0 __ weather-history (66) __________ 7.6 ___ 77.7 __ Backtrack (62) ________________________4.5 __ 100.0 __ DR(S)NO (74) _______________ 7.2 __ 122.0 __ 'Cold is best' (47) ______________________4.5 __ --- --- __ Prolonged SnowLover (111) ____ 7.0 ___ 77.0 __ Stratty (36) ___________________________4.5 __ --- --- __ Mark Bayley (L1-4) ___________ 7.0 ___ 67.0 __ mark wells (99) ________________________4.4 ___ 91.4 __ Kirkcaldy Weather ( 6 ) _______ 6.9 __ 111.0 __ Dog Toffee (L3) ________________________ 6.4 ___ 77.8 __ Roger J Smith (127) ____________________4.4 ___ 90.0 __ Jonathan F. (13) _____________ 6.2 ___ 99.9 __ Coopsy (64) __________________________4.4 ___ 60.0 __ nn2013 (18) ________________ 6.1 __ 120.0 __ Relativistic (49) _______________________ 4.4 ___ 70.0 __ Shunter (84) ________________ 6.1 ___ 92.0 __ mb018538 (52) ________________________4.4 ___ 96.0 __ Bullseye (116) _______________ 6.1 __ 104.0 __ Sky Full (65) __________________________4.4 ___ 88.0 __ seaside60 (L1-6) _____________ 6.1 __ --- --- __ Anthony Burden (71) ____________________4.3 __ 133.0 __ virtualsphere ( 9 ) ____________ 6.0 ___ 93.3 __ Weather26 ( 8 ) _______________________ 4.3 ___ 59.0 __ DiagonalRedLine (34) _________ 5.9 ___ 85.0 __ cheeky_monkey ( 5 ) ___________________4.3 __ 113.0 __ brmbrmcar (69) ______________ 5.9 __ 111.1 __ Stationary Front ( 7 ) ____________________4.3 ___ 74.0 __ SteveB (82) _________________ 5.9 __ 101.0 __ selliso (48) ___________________________ 4.3 ___ 45.0 __ Barry Reynolds (103) _________ 5.9 __ --- --- __ dancerwithwings (57) ___________________ 4.3 ___ 69.0 __ Born from the Void (104) _______ 5.9 __ --- --- __ Fozfoster (100) ________________________ 4.3 __ --- --- __ Connor Bailey Degnan (115) __ 5.8 __ 143.0 __ Timmytour ( 4 ) ________________________4.2 ___ 78.0 __ Tony Beets (31) _________ 5.7 ___ 90.0 __ swfc (30) _____________________________4.2 ___ 75.0 __ Ice Day (42) _________ 5.7 __ 115.0 __ Pinball Wizard (38) _____________________4.2 __ --- --- __ sundog (76) 5.7 __ 121.0 __ Kentspur (54) _________________________4.2 __ 110.0 __ That ECM (86) ___________________________ 5.7 ___ 71.4 __ sawan (96) ___________________________4.2 ___ 95.0 __ Ricky Cor (107) ________________________ 5.5 ___ 90.0 __ syed2878 (21) ________________________ 4.2 __ --- --- __ Duncan McAlister (135) __________________ 5.5 __ 112.0 __ Reef (80) ____________________________ 4.1 ___ 77.7 __ cal (55) ____________ 5.4 __ 117.4 __ Thundery Wintry Showers (61) ____________4.1 ___ 95.0 __ Ed Stone (79) ______ 5.4 ___ 73.0 __ Summer of 95 (75) _____________________4.1 ___ 80.0 __ daniel* (114) ________ 5.3 __ 135.0 __ Shillitocet (15) _________________________4.0 __ --- --- __ Kentish Man (91) ________ 5.3 ___ 80.0 __ The_Pit (29) __________________________ 4.0 ___ 50.0 __ Leo97t (95) ________ 5.3 __ 100.0 __ Twilight (51) __________________________ 4.0 ___ 60.0 __ blizzard91 (119) ______ 5.3 __ --- --- __ Man with Beard (125) ____________________4.0 __ 110.0 __ icykev (121) _________ 5.3 __ 100.0 __ Jack Wales (L1-5) ______________________ 3.9 ___ 45.0 __ freeze (45) ___________ 5.2 __ 163.0 __ Storming15 (25) ________________________3.9 __ 114.0 __ Dean E (60) ____________ 5.2 ___ 86.0 __ Winter Hill (101) ________________________3.9 ___ 85.0 __ Loubie_4 (126) ________________ 5.2 __ --- --- __ cyclonic happiness (112) __________________3.9 ___ 96.0 __ Blast from the Past (134) _____ 5.2 ___ 92.0 __ ghoneym (128) _________________________3.8 ___ 84.0 __ mother nature rocks (23) _________ 5.1 __ 123.0 __ Radiating Dendrite ( 2 ) __________________ 3.8 ___ 76.0 __ stewfox (43) _________ 5.1 __ --- --- __ BARRY (24) ___________________________ 3.7 ___ 72.0 __ pegg24 (28) _________ 5.1 ___ 80.0 __ Joneseye (89) __________________________3.7 ___ 65.0 __ badgers01 (63) _________ 5.1 __ --- --- __ Froze were the Days (110) _________________3.7 ___ 75.0 __ nicknacknoo (87) ________ 5.0 ___ 88.2 __ LottieKent (44) _________________________ 5.0 ___ 89.0 __ shuggee (72) ___________________________ 3.7 __ --- --- __ Beet (93) _______________ 5.0 ___ 92.0 __ MattTarrant (106) ________________________3.6 __ --- --- __ Walsall Wood Snow (78) ___ 4.9 __ 102.5 __ 1989-2018 average ______________________3.6 ___ 90.0 __ Godber1 (120) ___________ 4.9 ___ 85.0 __ Rollo (53) ______________________________3.5 ___ 59.0 __ Norrance (90) ___________ 4.9 __ 106.9 __ ARW Weather Man (73) ___________________3.4 ___ 67.4 __ CheesepuffScott (20) 4.9 __ 104.0 __ mizzle (88) _____________________________ 3.4 ___ 92.0 __ snowsummer (56) _________ 4.9 ___ 84.0 __ Mr Maunder (123) ________________________3.4 ___ 95.0 __ jonboy (68) _______________ 4.9 __ --- --- __ damianslaw (132) ________________________ 3.4 ___ 85.0 __ Midlands Ice Age (85) ______ 4.8 ___ 87.0 __ OddSpot (32) ___________________________ 3.4 ___ 86.0 __ Ali1977 (109) _____________ 4.8 ___ 99.0 __ AWD (98) ______________________________ 3.4 ___ 88.0 __ DAVID SNOW (118) ________ 4.8 __ 115.0 __ Don (105) ______________________________ 3.3 __ 160.0 __ Katharine Basso (94) _________ 4.8 __ 129.0 __ legritter (117) ____________________________3.2 ___ 75.0 __ raul_sbd (50) _________ 4.8 ___ 80.0 __ Mulzy (122) _____________________________3.2 ___ 97.0 __ ribster (58) ___________ 4.8 ___ 93.0 __ davehsug (133) __________________________3.2 ___ 52.0 __ Northern Lights (130) ____ 4.7 __ 115.0 __ Apple UK 123 (26) ________________________3.2 __ --- --- __ Jules.P (131) ___________ 4.7 ___ 96.0 __ red1cell (41) _____________________________3.1 ___ 94.0 __ Leon1 (27) ____________ 4.7 ___ 74.7 __ joggs (46) ______________________________ 3.1 __ --- --- __ blue_skies_do_I_see (67) _________ 4.7 __ 110.0 __ J10 (70) ________________________________ 3.1 ___ 68.0 __ Jeremy Shockey (81) ____________ 4.7 ___ 95.0 __ snowray (77) ____________________________ 3.1 __ 115.0 __ Lewis028 (92) _________ 4.7 __ --- --- __ summer sun (102) ________________________ 3.0 ___ 88.0 __ Polar Gael (16) _________ 4.7 ___ 49.0 __ Bazza118 (108) __________________________ 3.0 ___ 69.0 __ Big Dave (40) ________ 4.7 __ --- --- __ dickie1965 (113) __________________________3.0 ___ 99.0 __ John888 (83) _________ 4.7 ___ 88.0 __ Moorlander (136) _________________________2.9 __ 112.0 __ Emmett Garland (17) ____ 4.7 __ --- --- __ Andrew R (L1-2) __________________________2.8 ___ 88.0 __ day 10 (124) ___________ 4.6 ___ 97.4 __ 1981-2010 average _______________________2.7 ___ 70.0 __ Steve Murr (10) _________ 4.6 ___ 94.0 __ V for Very Cold ( 1 ) _______________________2.7 ___ 97.0 __ Robbie Garrett (97) _______ 4.6 ___ 78.0 __ Bobd29 (14) _____________________________2.5 ___ 77.0 __ Booferking (L1-3) _________ 4.6 __ 104.2 __ coldest winter (22) ________________________ 2.1 ___ 52.0 __ Mr TOAD (59) ___________ 4.6 ___ 86.0 __ Stargazer (33) ___________________________ 1.9 ___ 79.0 __ SLEETY (19) ____________ 4.6 ___ --- --- __ Summer Blizzard (39) _____________________1.2 ___ 77.0 __ Cymro (37) ______________ 4.6 ___ 88.3 __ Feb1991Blizzard (129) ________________ Consensus (median) of 143 forecasts is 4.6 or right on the 1981-2010 average. Later entries will be added. Table has now been checked against entries (2 Dec 0400h) -- later edits produced by you or a third party acting for you are not allowed and can be detected. =============================================================================================== EWP forecasts in order 200 _ LG .... .... 163 _ Storm ... ... 160 Kath ... ... 156 _ IRA252 ... ... 143 _ Tim .... .... 135 _ Shil .... .... 133 _ virt .... .... 129 _ leg 123 _ Rad D .... ....122 _ cold ... ... 121 _ Kent .... .... 120 _ Rel .... .... 117.4 _ TWS ... ... 115 _ apuk, pinw, Lew, Don ... 114 _ Dean ... ... 113 _ brm 112 _ EG, Reef... ... 111.1 _ SF ... 111 DT ... ... 110 _ J10, ECM, icykev ... .... 106.9 _ ARW ... ... 105 _ JeffC .... .... 104.2 _ cw ... ... 104 _ Sky Full, mizz ... ... 102.5 _ 89-18 .... .... 101 _ sell .... .... 100 _ Twi, DR(S)NO, JW ... ... 99.9 _ Coop ... ... 99.0 _ J888, AWD .... ... 97.4 _ 81-10 .... ....97 _ r i b, RG 96 _ red1, bulls, BFTP ... ... 95 _ jon, sray, EdS. Ricky ... 94 _ V vc, Leon1 ... ... 93.3 _ wx26 .... .... 93 _ daveh ... ... 92 _ mb, snowsum, Matt, ghon 91.4 _ KW .... ... 90 _ JonF., syed, swfc, Godb con... 89 _ shug ... ... 88.3 _ Feb91 ... ... 88.2 _ lot ... ... 88 _ PG, DS, day10, Moor,sea .... .... 87 _ OddS ... ... 86 _ star, WinH, Ali ... ... 85 _ cmonk, Rollo, MIA, lou ... ... 84 _ mnr, MrM ... ... 80 _ Pit, jones, dan*, Mul ... ... 79 _ SLE ... ... 78 _ Bobd, Tony 77.8 _ RJS, ... ... 77.7 _ cal, back ... ... 77 _ strat, cym, w-h, Boof ... ... 76 _ stew ... ... 75 _ IceD, raul, nick ... ... 74.7 _ joggs ... ... 74 _ SteveB ... ... 73 Sum95 72 _ peg ... ... 71.4 _ sawan ... ... 70 _ SMurr, shunt ... ... 69 _ BigD, BFTV ... ... 68 _ JerS ... ... 67.4 _ CPS .... .... 67 mark ... ... 65 _ badg 60 _ nn2013, bliz91 ... ... 59 _ DRL, Norr .... .... 52 _ Toad, NorLig .... .... 50 _ Leo ... ... 49 _ Baz ... ... 45 _ fre, BarR --------------------------- 119 entries, median (consensus) value is 90 mm.

Welcome aboard various newbies and lost part-timers from the mists of time ... ... I foresee a mild-dominated month after this first few days of cold, so will be going with 6.4 and 77.8 mm as the first half won't produce much, getting more active by Christmas-New Years. Severe cold is probably coming at some point, just don't think it will be this month aside from 1st to 3rd running perhaps 1.5 to 2.0. (that means I am actually saying 7.0 for the rest of the month to get to 6.4). Hate to bring up this analogue but it looks a bit like Dec 2006 which I think had a few cold days and a lot of milder ones. However 1794 is also a good pattern match for the autumn and this December so there is that. (note -- the usual table of entries will appear but it may be a few hours after midnight as I won't even get started on it until then, in my time zone it's just noon and we're headed out for the day).

In the provisional CET values, only two reached or exceeded 10.0. That was also the case in Nov 2016. The past two have seen ten (2018) and five (2017), while very mild 2015 saw 15. In recent years, only Nov 2013 had fewer (one day, the first of the month). Nov 2014 had seven.

I don't see the anomaly tracker posted today so ... 6.7 to the 29th bang on the 1961-1990 normal value (1-29 Nov) 0.5 below the 1981-2010 normal value (1-29 Nov) Cold enough that finish is very likely to be 6.6 considering that the 6.7 is rounded from 6.66 anyway. But the next number we discuss won't be that, it will be 6.2 to 6.5 most likely the range of adjusted values for the final monthly value. Outside chances for 6.1 and 6.6 I suppose.

Depends on which average, but the answers would appear to be: (a) below 1981-2010 normal __ May June 2019 (b) below 1961-1990 normal __ Feb Mar 2018 (May June 2019 and Sep Oct 2018 were both close calls relative to 1961-90 but seem to have missed out on the basis of one month being only tied and the other +0.1 relative to normal). Here's an absolute benchmark, the last time two consecutive months were colder than the coldest ever 30-year running means would be May-June 2013 which were 10.4, 13.6 vs 10.6, 13.8. Even Nov-Dec 2010 couldn't break that one as Nov 2010 equalled the coldest 30-year average for November (5.2). The same is true of Dec 2009 - Jan 2010 with Dec (3.1) matching the lowest ever 30-year December average. (Jan 2010 easily slipped in under the lowest Jan average of 2.0 which was 1795-1824).

EWP was 133 mm to 27th and likely added 3-4 since then. It may add a bit in the southwest tomorrow but for now, I have reset the scoring file to 138 mm. (attached) Will confirm or amend this on 2nd of December when provisional totals are posted. Then final results of contest on 5th with confirmed data. Best combined forecast this month will depend on the final adjustment of CET, could be Blast from the Past (currently 2nd EWP and could be in top ten of CET at 6.6). Don also in the hunt at 6.2 and 135 mm. Feb91Blizzard as he's been saying might be a bit too mild at 7.0 although his EWP (138 mm) is provisionally highest score. EWP20182019NOV.xlsx

Continuing to stock this newer thread with the material from the previous one, having moved over most if not all of the better temperature material, now starting into the precipitation data files. Maximum daily precipitation (mm) 1931-2023 Central England (CEP) DATE __ JAN _________ FEB _________ MAR _________ APR __________ MAY _________ JUN 01 _____ 9.0 (1958) __ 15.8 (1979) ___ 8.6 (1987) __ 15.7 (2018.)__ 12.7 (1948) __ 11.4 (1999) 02 ____ 15.4 (1998) __ 10.4 (1950) __ 14.8 (2007) __ 17.0 (2000) __ 12.6 (1977) __ 15.9 (1958) 03 ____ 15.0 (1980) __ 11.1 (1947) ___ 9.8 (2016) __ 17.4 (2012) __ 13.1 (2021) __ 13.4 (2012) 04 _____ 9.3 (2001) __ 12.9 (2001) __ 19.0 (1942) ___ 9.5 (1987) __ 12.2 (2015) __ 15.8 (2022) 05 ____ 10.9 (1951) __ 12.2 (1935) __ 11.9 (2019) __10.2 (1970) __ 24.8 (1978) __ 21.8 (1931) 06 ____ 23.3 (1959) __ 13.6 (2014) __ 16.1 (1982) __ 14.5 (1949) __ 12.6 (1955) __ 22.2 (1985) 07 _____ 9.4 (1986) __ 12.9 (1966) __ 17.7 (1941) __ 11.4 (1987) __ 12.6 (1975) __ 13.9 (2009) 08 ____ 23.2 (1992) __ 14.3 (1946) __ 17.9 (2016) ___ 8.5 (1951) __ 11.0 (1997) __ 12.5 (1956) 09 ____ 12.8 (2007) __ 14.5 (2009) __ 18.7 (1981) __ 25.4 (1998) __ 11.7 (1992) __ 10.6 (1957) 10 ____ 20.4 (1948) __ 11.7 (1977) ___ 9.2 (1981) __ 18.3 (1983) __ 13.8 (2016) __ 34.4 (2019) 11 ____ 16.3 (2008) __ 10.8 (1996) __ 11.1 (1937) __ 10.7 (2000) __ 14.2 (1937) __ 18.4 (1997) 12 _____ 8.6 (1969) ___ 9.8 (1950) __ 23.0 (1947) __ 15.7 (1970) __ 13.5 (1960) __ 19.9 (2019) 13 ____ 15.7 (2021) __ 13.1 (2013) __ 11.3 (1951) __ 10.7 (1956) __ 21.5 (2007) __ 13.3 (1952) 14 ____ 10.3 (1939) ___ 9.1 (2006) __ 29.2 (1964) __ 11.3 (1992) __ 21.4 (1985) __ 22.7 (2007) 15 ____ 17.1 (2008) ___20.0 (2020)__ 23.8 (2008) __ 14.1 (2016) __ 12.0 (1958) __ 15.1 (1978) 16 _____ 8.9 (1955) ___ 8.5 (1951) __ 17.7 (2022) __ 14.6 (1959) __ 11.7 (1949) __ 15.8 (1974) 17 ____ 11.6 (2007) __ 10.7 (1936) __ 14.1 (1980) __ 13.2 (1950) __ 26.4 (1955) __ 16.8 (2020) 18 ____ 15.0 (2003) __ 14.7 (1966) ___ 8.5 (1986) __ 16.0 (1975) __ 13.3 (1953) __ 17.8 (2021) 19 ____ 11.8 (1995) __ 10.6 (1966) __ 10.3 (1964) ___ 9.5 (1966) __ 10.2 (1986) __ 35.6 (1973) 20 ____ 11.4 (1969) __ 11.8 (1969) __ 16.0 (1965) __ 10.6 (1983) __ 19.5 (1979) ___ 8.3 (1933) 21 ____ 12.8 (1988) ___ 7.4 (1935) __ 10.1 (1975) __ 11.3 (1962) __ 26.6 (1932) __ 20.8 (1936) 22 ____ 13.4 (1956) __ 11.5 (1936) __ 10.3 (1932) ___ 8.5 (1996) ___ 9.8 (2014) __ 21.8 (1982) 23 ____ 15.7 (1984) ___ 9.8 (1957) __ 11.0 (1984) __ 23.9 (1971) __ 16.0 (1948) __ 15.2 (1960) 24 ____ 17.5 (1960) __ 20.0 (1958) __ 12.4 (1964) __ 13.2 (1981) __ 13.4 (2018.)__ 23.6 (2007) 25 ____ 23.9 (1939) __ 11.7 (2011) __ 14.8 (1941) __ 22.6 (1981) __ 10.8 (1968) __ 18.7 (1997) 26 ____ 17.7 (1940) __ 11.2 (1933) ___ 8.9 (1955) __ 22.3 (1981) __ 18.0 (1993) __ 18.6 (1958) 27 ____ 18.1 (1977) __ 14.8 (1967) __15.9 (2016) ___ 9.6 (2018.)__ 26.9 (2007) __ 25.1 (2017) 28 ____ 17.3 (1958) __ 11.6 (2020) __ 13.6 (1979) __ 13.0 (2004) __ 24.3 (1954) __ 16.7 (1963) 29 ____ 13.4 (1960) ___ 5.5 (1936) __ 16.5 (1963) __ 19.3 (1991) __ 14.1 (1992) __ 12.4 (1978) 30 ____ 15.5 (2004) __ (( no data )) ___13.6 (2018.)__ 12.1 (1968) __ 18.9 (1979) __ 20.0 (2003) 31 ____ 11.2 (1943) __ (( no data )) ___ 8.6 (1972) __ (( no data )) __ 18.0 (1983) __ (( no data )) Max (1872-2022) for month _ 122.6 (1939) _ 114.8 (1977) _ 119.5 (1947) _ 125.4 (2012) _ 122.1 (1967) _ 141.4 (2007) (unlike July to December, all six of these occurred after 1931 in the daily data period, 1872 to 1930 monthly data only) 2019 new records and what they replaced: Mar 5 _ 11.9 mm replaced 11.3 (2003). also _ 33.4 replaced 13.8 (1993) for 10 June _ 19.9 replaced 16.2 (1954) for 12 June and in 2020, 15 Feb 20.0 mm replaced 7.0 (1944) and is now tied as the highest February daily value with 20.0 on 24th 1958. 28 Feb, 11.6 mm edged out 11.5 mm from 1990. 10.9 mm on 8 Jan, and 11.7 mm on 9 Feb were in the range of some daily records but failed to beat existing marks. 16.8 mm on 17 June beat 10.2 mm (1966). then in 2021 ... 15.7 mm on 13 Jan replaces 14.9 (1993) 13.1 mm on 3 May replaces 11.4 (1973) 17.8 mm on 18 June replaces 15.8 (1971) and in 2022 ... 17.7 mm on 16 Mar replaces 13.0 (1979) 15.8 mm on 4 June replaces 11.8 (1985) also in 2023 ... 18.5 mm on 9 Mar did not quite equal 18.7 from 1981 but would be a daily record for most days in March 15.5 mm on 18 June also failed to replace 2021 record (see above) of 17.8 mm or its antecedent 15.8 (1971). DATE ____ JUL _______ AUG ________ SEP __________ OCT __________ NOV _________ DEC 01 ___ 19.6 (1958) __ 19.3 (1956) __ 11.0 (1968) __ 21.0 (1999) __ 19.0 (2008) __ 22.8 (1975) 02 ___ 15.1 (1936) __ 23.2 (1948) __ 12.9 (2009) __ 19.6 (1992) __ 13.8 (1940) __ 14.8 (1937) 03 ___ 15.3 (1992) __ 15.1 (1963) __ 30.0 (1931)_ 14.1 (1938,2020)_ 19.5 (1957) _27.4 (1960) 04 ____ 9.1 (2021) __ 15.9 (1963) __ 12.4 (1998) __ 21.2 (2008) __ 13.8 (1957) __ 10.9 (2020) 05 ___ 11.6 (2021) __ 20.2 (1939) __ 16.1 (2008) __ 13.5 (2019) __ 25.8 (2000) __ 15.0 (1985) 06 ___ 18.5 (1963) __ 35.3 (1951) __ 15.6 (2010) __ 23.6 (1985) __ 10.2 (2019) __ 12.4 (1992) 07 ___ 24.8 (2004) __ 16.9 (1980) ___ 9.6 (1995) __ 12.2 (1974) __ 14.7 (1935) __ 16.7 (1977) 08 ___ 14.4 (1956) __ 20.6 (1992) __ 27.9 (1965)a__22.1 (1997) __ 19.5 (1989) __ 19.2 (1954) 09 ___ 22.8 (1936) __ 37.2 (2004) __ 18.9 (2002) __ 19.2 (1987) __ 13.7 (1934) __ 17.1 (1965) 10 ___ 50.0*(1968)__ 17.7 (1986) __ 18.0 (1957) __ 24.2 (1933) __ 13.0 (1992) __ 10.3 (2016) 11 ___ 12.0 (2017) __ 15.2 (1948)#_ 17.0 (1968) __ 12.0 (2012) __ 15.3 (1940) __ 10.2 (2014) 12 ___ 15.0 (1961) __ 14.3 (2006) __ 23.9 (1948) __ 20.2 (1993) __ 15.6 (1972) __ 18.1 (1993) 13 ___ 19.4 (1932) __ 16.1 (1979)@_ 13.1 (1986) __ 19.3 (2014) __ 26.0 (1993) __ 21.1 (1989) 14 ___ 16.6 (1945) __ 26.0 (1980) __ 42.2 (1994) __ 14.7 (2018)+__17.1 (1946) __ 17.0 (1989) 15 ___ 29.6 (1937) __ 10.3 (1950) __ 24.6 (1968) __ 33.3 (2002) __ 11.7 (1975) __ 10.0 (1989.) 16 ___ 12.8^(1973) __ 19.3 (2022) __ 17.7 (1989) __ 29.3 (1967) __ 17.8 (1969) ___ 8.6 (1989) 17 ___ 30.7 (2001) __ 16.3 (1963) __ 18.7 (2023) __ 19.4 (1939) __ 14.9 (1960) ___ 8.4 (1994) 18 ___ 14.7 (1946) __ 13.6 (1977) __ 12.8 (1973) __ 16.7 (1949)a__ 22.8 (1939) __ 18.4 (1989) 19 ___ 10.5 (1939) __ 29.1 (1970) __ 17.6 (2000) __ 29.7 (2023)a__ 17.6 (1946) __ 16.2 (1996) 20 ___ 28.0 (2007) __ 13.5 (1932)$__31.6 (1946) __ 25.2 (2023)a__ 18.6 (1971) __ 17.5 (2003) 21 ___ 14.1 (1988) __ 18.6 (1966) __ 17.4 (1983) __ 11.3 (2001) __ 23.3 (1940) __ 22.3 (2002) 22 ___ 12.6 (2013) __ 15.3 (2010) __ 25.8 (1992) __ 13.1 (2006) __ 13.9 (2006) __ 12.3 (2012) 23 ___ 10.4 (2023) __ 24.5 (1941) __ 19.4 (2012) __ 18.7 (1949) __ 17.0 (1984) __ 20.9 (2020) 24 ___ 18.1 (2015) __ 15.4 (2020) __ 29.1 (1935) __ 13.0 (1998) __ 23.6 (2012) ___ 9.8 (2000) 25 ___ 13.2 (1931) __ 37.7 (1986) __ 18.5 (2000) __ 18.8 (2019) __ 11.3 (1938) __ 10.2 (1998) 26 ___ 19.1 (1941) __ 15.0 (2011) ___ 9.6 (1991) __ 13.8 (1959) __ 25.6 (1983) __ 18.1 (2014) 27 ___ 17.8 (2019) __ 11.1 (2020) __ 14.7 (1988) __ 18.1 (1998) __ 11.5 (1971) __ 22.0 (1979) 28 ___ 31.1 (1969) __ 15.3 (1934) __ 30.5 (1991) __ 10.3 (1968) __ 12.8 (1965) __ 12.5 (1978)++ 29 ___ 18.0 (2009) __ 21.0 (1966) __ 12.6 (1990) __ 24.0 (2000) __ 18.6 (1988) __ 21.0 (2002) 30 ___ 39.2 (2002) __ 24.0 (1976) __ 18.3 (2019) __ 14.5 (2003) ___ 9.2 (1992) __ 23.1 (1948) 31 ___ 16.4 (1972) __ 23.5 (1994) __ (( no data )) __ 20.4 (1940) __ (( no data )) __ 15.9 (1976) # 11 Aug tied in 2008 ... @ 13 Aug tied in 1982 ... $ 20 Aug tied in 2004 ... a 08 Sep 1972 27.8 mm Monthly max (second row shows max for period with daily data) _____ 159.7 (1875) _ 174.1 (1912) _ 126.1 (1883) _ 144.5 (1882) _ 143.4 (1940) _ 137.4 (1914) _ _ _ 127.9 (1936) _ 146.7 (2004) _ 117.3 (1968) _ 126.0 (1960) _ (same as ^) __ 128.6 (1978) The wettest calendar year was 1882 (884.6 mm) and since 1931, it was 2012 (876.3 mm). * This date has several very heavy rainfalls, also 27.9 mm in 1940, 17.7 mm in 1960, 14.9 mm in 2000. ^ This 1973 record followed a heavier rainfall (23.9 mm) that was not a record for the previous day. + In 1987, 14th was a record (11.1) until broken in 2018, and that was followed by 18.6 mm on 15 Oct which was broken in 2002, later came the celebrated windstorm overnight which remains a record-breaker. ++ This 1978 record was preceded by 16.5 mm but that was broken the next year. a _ 19.7 (1981) on 19 Oct and 16.0 (1987) on 20 Oct were replaced by very heavy rains of storm Babet in Oct 2023, 15.9 mm on 18 Oct 2023 was not quite a daily record. 3-day total rain of 70.8 mm 18-20 Oct. Note: 19.4 mm on 21 Nov 2016 would have been a daily record on any other day 19-23 Nov but was not a record on 21 Nov. ... table is now edited to 31 July 2019. The new record on 27 July of 2019 replaced 14.6 from 1958. The new record on 16 August 2019 replaced 10.6 from 2008, 2017 ... 15.2 mm on 14th August 2019 was not a new record. ... 30 Sep 2019 replaced 14.5 mm in 1952. A fall of 19.4 on the 28th did not break that day's record of 30.5 mm. 5 Oct (13.5, 2019) broke the existing record of 11.9 (1955). And 25 Oct (18.8, 2019) broke the existing record of 16.4 (1979). 6 Nov 2019 (10.2 mm) broke the existing record of 9.9 (2000) but the following day 10.3 mm was not a record (14.7, 1935). 15.4 mm on 14th Nov 2019 was short of the daily record of 17.1 mm (1946). 18.2 mm on 16 Aug 2020 broke the existing record of 11.1 mm (2019). It would be later broken by 19.3 mm in 2022. 15.4 mm on 24 Aug 2020 broke the existing mark of 14.8 (1944). 11.1 mm on 27 Aug 2020 broke the existing mark of 10.4 (2016). 11.3 mm on 28 Aug 2020 was not a record for that date though. 14.1 mm on 3 Oct 2020 tied the existing record from 1938. These posted values are sometimes amended later so this may go either way (by Dec 2022 still a tie). 20.9 mm on 23 Dec 2020 broke the existing record of 12.8 (2013). On Dec 3 13.9 mm was not close to breaking 27.4 mm (1960) but would have been a daily record on the 4th or 6th. ... 24.8 mm fell in total 3rd-4th. The 10.9 mm on 4th was a daily record replacing 10.3 mm (1937). 9.1 mm on 4 July 2021 broke the previous mark 9.0 (1974) and 11.6 mm on 5 July 2021 broke the existing record of 9.4 mm (2012). 14.6 mm (28 Sep 2021) and 16.5 mm (4 Oct 2021) did not break daily records. 19.3 mm on 16 Aug 2022 broke the existing record of 18.2 mm (2020). There were several wet days in October and November 2022 but none of them broke daily records. 12.6 (20 Oct), 14.2 (23 Oct, 16 Nov), 15.7 (21 Nov). 11.6 mm on 22 July 2023 was below record value but 11.4 mm next day 23 July 2023 broke record of 9.1 mm from 1969. 15.1 mm on 26 July 2023 was also below record value of 19.1 mm (1941). _ see note below. 18.7 mm on 17 Sep 2023 broke a record of 12.2 mm (1983). _ to be checked as values often change slightly within 3-4 months. 10.8 mm on 11 Oct 2023 and 19.0 on 12 Oct 2023 both a little below existing records, to be checked for next few months until final values known.

EWP projections have fallen today to 135 mm (currently about 115 mm, 132h accum rainfall from 12z GFS only about 20 mm). This will be one of the few autumns to see over 120 mm in each month. The only others are 1794, 1935 and 2000. (1960 came close with 117.8 in Sep the lowest amount). With about 389 mm already fallen, these are the top ten autumns and 2019 can nestle in among them somewhere, probably around 5th place. 1794 that was mentioned as consistently above 120 mm only made it to 19th place. 2000 _ 502.7 1852 _ 455.8 1960 _ 438.6 1935 _ 424.1 2019 _ 410 est 1770 _ 402.4 1772 _ 400.6 1875 _ 399.1 1768 _ 398.7 1799 _ 396.9 1976 _ 396.8 ___________________________ In terms of an overall wet year, assuming 135 mm for November (total then 971 mm) 2019 will need 200 mm in December to finish 7th overall, and would finish 11th with 150 mm and 28th overall (since 1766) with just an average 100 mm. To catch 1872, the wettest year, December would need an astonishing 314 mm and to catch 2012 (third wettest and most recent top ten) 273 mm.

EWP projection continues to be around 150 mm with 107 mm to 21st, 5-8 mm likely down since then, and GFS 156 mm to end of month showing 30-40 mm potential. Contest leader BFTV already guaranteed a win but going for the exclamation point of a very high score this month.

EWP climbing rather slowly in recent days has probably reached 100 mm with 96 indicated to 20th. The 8.5 day projection on the GFS (to end of 30th) suggests a further 50 mm with heavier amounts over most of the south and west. The finishing point still looks to be fairly close to 150 mm then.

EWP reported at 97 mm to 17th and likely through the 18th as well. The GFS ten-day maps have been shifting back and forth with a blob of heavier rain sometimes well into the UK and other times (like this latest run) off to the west closer to southeast Ireland. So it appears somewhat uncertain how much more the EWP will get, could be anywhere from 30 to 60 mm by the looks of the guidance. A finish between 130 and 160 seems most likely then. My guess for the CET is that the last ten days will average 8.0 and that will bump up the current values to near 7.0 at the finish, but with a downward adjustment we may finish not that far from the current provisionals, high 6 zone perhaps.

I just remembered to update this thread for October. The rather cold (10.0) CET has shifted the range of Oct 2020 values now required to boost the current 29-year average of 10.9 into the 11.0 range. October 2020 will have to manage 11.5 to any record high value below 14.4 to reach 11.0 for the new normal. Otherwise if it can stay between 8.5 and 11.4, it will end up staying where it is now at 10.9. Next update after November CET is confirmed.

On behalf of J10 and myself, welcome to another new competition year with the winter season of 2019-20 fast approaching. The contests will include the CET forecast and the (still optional) EWP forecast, with some guidance provided in two sections below ... CET averages and extremes for December --- all CET values 1981 to 2018 are in the table --- they are in bold type to make them easier to find --- --- --- and colour coded for warmest, middle and coldest thirds of the 38 most recent years. 13.1 ... warmest daily mean, 19th 2015 12.9 ... previous warmest daily mean, 12th 1994 9.7 ... warmest December 2015 8.1 ... tied second warmest Decembers 1934 and 1974 7.7 ... fourth warmest December 1852 7.6 ... fifth warmest December 1733 7.5 ... 1988 6.9 ... 2018 6.5 ... 2006 6.4 ... 1994 6.3 ... 1985, 2013 6.2 ... 1986 6.0 ... 2011, 2016 5.9 ... has never happened in 360 tries 5.8 ... 1997, 2000 5.7 ... 2002 5.6 ... 1983, 1987 5.5 ... 1993, 1998 5.4 ... 2004 5.2 ... 1984, 2014 5.1 ... average for 1971-2000* and 2001-18 5.0 ... 1999 4.9 ... average for 1989-2018, 1991-2018 (developing 1991-2020) and 1989, 2007 4.8 ... 2003, 2012, 2017 4.7 ... average for 1961-90 and 1991 4.6 ... average for 1981-2010, also 1901-2000 4.4 ... 1982, 2005 4.3 ... 1990 4.1 ... average for 1659-2017 (all 360 years) 4.0 ... average for 1801-1900 3.9 ... average for 1701-1800 3.6 ... 1992, 2001 3.5 ... 2008 3.4 ... average for 1659-1700 3.1 ... 2009 2.9 ... 1996 2.3 ... 1995 0.3 ... 1981 --0.4 ... tied fourth coldest 1788 and 1796 --0.5 ... third coldest 1676 --0.7 ... second coldest 2010 --0.8 ... coldest December 1890 -10.8 ... lowest daily mean 25th 1796 _______________________________________________ Enter your forecast before midnight on Saturday 30 November, or with the increasing late penalties for entries 1-3 Dec. *1971-2000 is in fact the highest 30-year average for December in the CET series, and the only one that rounds to 5.1, from 5.06. With the exception of June, this is the furthest back one has to go to find the maximum value. For most months it is one of the past four (1987-2016, 1988-2017, 1989-2018 or 1990-2019). For June, however, it was 1822-51 (14.72) followed closely by an earlier peak, 14.70 for 1772-1801. June 2018 was warm enough to boost the running 30-year average to 14.64, its highest value since 1825-54. In between the peaks, the June average got as low as 13.8 (1900-29), rising to 14.57 for 1931-60 and 1932-61, then falling back to 14.07 as recently as 1971-2000. June 2019 resulted in a slight drop of the running June 30-year average, to 14.63. The running 30-year December mean actually dropped fractionally (staying 4.9) because very mild 1988 was replaced by almost as mild 2018. As you might expect, the Maunder period produced cold Decembers, the mean was as low as 3.2 (1665 to 1694). It then rose as high as 4.29 by 1709-38. There was a colder period than any in the Maunder; the lowest 30-year average was 3.09 from 1783 to 1812; rounded off 1784 to 1813 was equal. The running mean climbed as high as 4.61 for 1823-52 before falling back to 3.48 for 1867-96. Decembers in the first third of the 20th century were generally a bit milder than the mid-century period, means as high as 4.73 were reached in 1893-1922 and 1907-36. The lowest since those peaks was 4.33 for 1923-52. The last time that the running mean was 4.5 was 1957 to 1986. The table above tracks the changes since then, but worth noting that the cold December of 2010 dropped the running mean from 4.84 to 4.63 but it then went back up to 4.82 for 1982 to 2011 as that period dropped the cold December of 1981 (mean 0.3). 1981-2010 was the only 30-year mean at 4.6 after 1960-89. _____ _ = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = _ ________ Optional Precip Contest -- details The EWP contest now enters its third year. It remains entirely optional, in the first two years about two-thirds of the regular temperature forecasters entered this second contest. (there were no precip-only forecasters). The contest asks you to predict an amount in mm (not a percentage) for this statistic. Any forecasts entered as percentages are converted using 1981-2010 averages. After using the 1910-2017 "NCIC" precip values for the first contest, and scoring Hadley as an alternative, I went with the somewhat later appearing Hadley values for the second contest year, to reduce the complexity of scoring and reporting. You will have to be patient as Hadley posts their numbers around the 5th of each month. Preliminary numbers are available on the 2nd of each month and they rarely change much when given a decimal. Then the practice is to tweak the numbers through the following several months, which led me to start an "ultimate scoring" alternative table that adjusts the contest scores by these later amended values. However, the first reported values are what we use for the official contest results. In any case, most people stay within one rank or at the most two ranks of where they were in the immediate scoring. For December, here are the averages and extremes for your guidance. Data (from the Hadley EWP tables) go back to 1766. The last ten December EWP amounts appear in the table below. Both 2010 and 2012 qualified as min and max values for the period 1981-2018. ... the average of these past ten Decembers is 106.0 mm. It can be seen from the 30-year normals and that last figure, that a general increasing trend is underway for Dec EWP. Max on record ____193.9 mm (1876) Max since 1981 ___ 175.2 mm (2012) ____2015 _______ 145.9 mm ____2013 _______ 134.2 mm ____2018 _______ 116.0 mm ____2011 _______ 113.6 mm ____2017 _______ 113.4 mm ____2009 _______ 109.1 mm _ mean 2009-18 __ 106.0 mm Mean 1989-2018 __ 102.5 mm Mean 1981-2010 __ 97.4 mm ____2014 ________ 77.3 mm ____2016 ________ 41.3 mm Min since 1981 ____34,1 mm (2010) Min on record _____ 8.9 mm (1788) ____________________________________________________ Note, the highest 30-year mean of December EWP was 106.6 mm (1896-1925). The lowest was 67.5 for 1864-1893. Since the peak value the lowest was 84.8 mm (1925-54). It has been gradually increasing since then and is now within 4 mm of the earlier peak. Your forecast should be in mm with one decimal allowed. If you enter a percentage, that will be applied to 1981-2010 mean of 97.3 to derive your contest entry. Any number that appears without a % sign will be taken as whole number of mm. It will be up to you to clarify your contest entry. Deadlines are the same as the temperature contest. Scoring rules (general summary) .... Top score will be 10.0 regardless of error. Lowest score will be 0.0, and all other scores will be calculated from step values. This contest year, order of entry will affect your score, but each later (equal ranked error) forecast will drop by 0.1 rather than the full step value (which is often 0.2 or 0.3). The lower scores after these ties will resume at a point determined by full step value drops. Example, three are tied at 7.0 by step values, so they score 7.0, 6.9 and 6.8. Then the next score will be 6.4 (as though three steps had been used). Forecasts with equal errors on either side of an actual value (example, 60.0 and 80.0 with actual 70.0) will score the same, and their respective later entries will also score the same as each other (if both have duplicate entries). Late penalties are applied as follows: 0.2 per day late. Example, you score 8.4, but enter on second late day, penalty of 0.4 reduces that score to 8.0. No score will be negative after this rule applies. The table of ranked monthly amounts (for EWP) can be found here. With a bit of navigating you can also find other products of the precip product. The contest scores are based on the earliest posted table values and when those change slightly as they tend to do within 3-4 months, ultimate scoring section below the main contest scoring in the excel file will alert you to how your score would have changed (but the ultimate contest scoring is not to be considered official). I hope we get an even stronger contingent of our temperature regulars involved in this precip forecast. Reference: http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadukp/data/ranked_monthly/HadEWP_ranked_mly.txt If entering both contests, just post once (not a requirement, you can post separate forecasts but try to remember to use mm) A sample "good" entry would be 5.0 C, 82.5 mm (that's not my entry, I will enter around the 30th). Order of contest posting can become different for CET and EWP if a forecaster changes one but not the other forecast earlier submitted. Good luck and thanks again on behalf of all of us to J10 for scoring and administering the temperature forecast contest. He may want to let you know about any scoring plans for 2019-20, Good luck to all entrants !!

This is the link for the updates: http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadukp/charts/charts.html They are normally about a day behind so I go to the meteociel 24h rainfall map and add on an estimate from the previous day if the timing indicates that the previous day is not in the current total. I was coming in to post this anyway, the total so far is 89 mm to the 14th, and the map for the 24h rainfall on the 15th is fairly dry with perhaps 2 mm on average in the grid. Then the 10-day GFS rainfall projection looks to be around 30 mm to the 26th, and maps for the rest of the month show maybe 20 mm at least in a parade of Atlantic frontal events. The grand total of all that would be 141 mm. In the past the GFS 10-day has proven to be somewhat conservative so I think my current provisional estimate of 165 mm in the attached preliminary version of scoring is still valid. If we fall a bit short, most of the scoring will stay relatively similar, you can probably estimate that unless you have a much lower forecast and the projection is horribly inflated, your relative scoring to the field will stay about the same anyway. I will edit this file in after I check on the current status of best combined forecast and add that to the new section (column CW in the file). Looks like coldest winter has a good combination for a CET around 6.8, would go towards davehsug if milder, or Blast from the Past if colder. EWP20182019NOV.xlsx

The EWP is probably around 90 mm now as it had reached 80 after 13th and yesterday had some generous amounts across central regions. That by the way would be 20 mm higher than the estimate from guidance on the 4th, as a rough guide to the accuracy of the GFS projections. So with that in mind, the current projection of about 30 mm over coming ten days might be conservative (it is a blend of 50-60 in southwest to 10-20 in northeast according to the ten-day accumulated rainfall graphic). Then the maps for days 11 to 15 (to end of month) look fairly wet also, maybe 30 mm in that interval for a grand total of at least 150 mm and possibly higher I will show the provisional excel file based on 165 mm which has some nice upward moves for anyone predicting more than 130 mm. Agreed that the CET looks likely to flatten out in the low to mid 6 range if this guidance proves accurate.

EWP was 64 mm after ten days, almost on pace to reach a record amount for November. About 3 mm likely added to the start of ten-day GFS projetion which has some 60-80 mm pockets in the Midlands and southwest but would say overall looks like 35-40 mm coming for EWP, then days 11 to 16 look wet and could add 30 mm. A further 10 mm could fall 29th-30th in the pattern indicated at end of the run. The grand total is 142-147 mm. CET continues to look quite low and could end up below 6.

EWP projections ... 56 to 9th, 6 mm est 10th, 40-50 mm avg 11th-21st, 25-35 mm 22nd to 27th (end of GFS run), 10 mm possible 28th-30th ... grand total 137-157 mm. Probably a more reasonable idea of the range of possible outcomes would be 100-200 mm as there appears to be somewhat more upside than downside error potential in this pattern, any given system ten to twenty days out could prove more robust than indicated if it became slow-moving under good upper support. The CET would likely fall below 6 C by 21st then level off or even make a slight recovery although the mild potential of the pattern shown is limited (a few days between 7 and 9 C possibly near the end of the current 16-day run). Disclaimer: subjective bias may be rampant here (my forecasts were 5.6 and 170.4 mm).

EWP updated to 40 mm for 6th, then on 7th as PIT indicated a very heavy fall in parts of Yorkshire but that only covered about 20% of the grid, would estimate they might add 10 mm for the 7th. The ten-day GFS continues to show rather light amounts in the north, heavier in the southwest, an average would be 25-30 mm. However, days 11 to 16 on the GFS look rather wet, good for another 20-30 and a heavy rainfall event shown approaching (for day 17). So adding it all up the total by about the 25th could be close to 130 mm. Guesses between 120 and 170 are probably favoured at this stage. The CET continues to look quite cold through the period and seems headed for the 5 to 6 range.

EWP had reached 28 mm by end of 5th, has probably added about 10 mm to start of GFS 10-day estimate (12z today) in which it adds a further 30-40. That could easily turn out higher as a lot of concentrations of heavier rainfall are shown just offshore to the south, east and west. Then days 11 to 16 of the GFS would add perhaps 20 mm with a wet looking system approaching at the end of the run. If I just took climatology for the days beyond the GFS run the grand total would be something around 120-130 mm, not exceptional considering that the recent 30-year averages are in the 100-105 mm range. But I would think there's more upside than downside error potential in that estimate. As to the CET I would estimate that is going to fall steadily next week to reach about 6.0 then level off with variations around that figure, anything from 5.5 to 6.5 probably looking best at this early stage.

If anyone has trouble opening the October CET file, try this link, I had some difficulty but got it downloaded and converted. (J10, I think it is crossing paths like we had going on before, maybe just on my computer though, so this may not be needed for any other users). Should open up to the various summaries, other options will be in tabs. Oct19CET.xlsx

Yes, the 81-10 running mean drops 0.2 from 3rd to 4th so the net fall of a decrease of 0.4 would be 0.2 relative to normal, then you have rounding issues also. The EWP had 22 mm in the bucket after three days, probably around 30 mm by 12z today when the ten-day GFS started its forecast, reaching 40 mm on average for ten days. Some locally heavier amounts expected in the south and west, also far northern areas. So quite approximate but 70 mm is the rough target for the 15th at the halfway point. The charts for the six remaining days on the GFS look rather wet so could estimate 100 mm by 21st. Our consensus forecast was above the recent normals which are just over that amount. But with any reasonable continuation of trends, the month could be headed towards a repeat of the October value of 149 mm. The last time both October and November had over 140 mm was 2002 (144.2, 176.2) although 2000 was wetter with both above 180 mm. More recently 2012 had 127.7 and 135,8 mm. In the rest of the period of record, 1824, 1872, 1875, 1882, 1935 and 1960 had more than 130 mm in both months.

Updated EWP scoring file has various updates to ultimate scoring (minor changes to July, August and September). EWP20182019OCT.xlsx

The reported October EWP of 149.0 mm changes only a few scores by 0.2 up or down as some of the higher forecasts gain 1 mm and all of the lower ones lose that same amount. As the new posting comes with minor changes to previous months in the table, that may have implications for ultimate scoring section. So I will post the updated excel scoring file when it's finished (may not take very long to do that).

You could move up in the EWP with any outcome near or above your 138 mm, looking at score differentials and quite a few ahead of you have gone below 100 mm. There could be a five point gain in that scenario. Scores are fairly close from 7th place down to 22nd really, anyone in that bracket could move quite a few ranks. The top three however are close to locked in, I would say the top two are definitely guaranteed those spots as there is nobody with any mathematical chance of passing them ... weather-history has some chance to move past J10 if the outcome is 90 mm or less. Don and DR(S)NO are locked into their relative positions with the same forecast, but they could both move up one or two spots if they hit.