Roger J Smith

EWP tracker and forecasts ... 14 mm to 4th, 8-10 mm likely added on 5th (higher amounts in west and north) 20-25 mm on average for next ten days (GFS) 20-25 mm potential on GFS 11-16 day charts This adds up to 62-74 mm by end of 21st. This would be near the normal October pace as monthly averages are 104 mm (1981-2010) and 100 mm (1989-2018).

Multiple threads about how there won't be any winter. ;)

FYI, I ran the October entries in EWP against various outcomes and found that at the top of the annual race, Born from the Void would maintain a lead over Reef even if Reef hits his 119 mm right on (BFTV is at 130), but it would be a reduction of two points in the current lead, whereas both of them would be dropping down quite close to any of the next three if they were to maximize their scores. If the outcome is higher than 130 mm then BFTV would probably take a nearly insurmountable lead into the last month. So lots depending on the outcome of this month in the EWP contest. Here is the spreadsheet with 119.1 mm used to determine scores. This looks as plausible as anything right now with lots of active weather on the charts. But it's only offered for reference at this early stage, obviously if you have a larger error than people around you in the scoring table, but you end up being closer, you'll move past several people above you. I have also updated ultimate scoring, July changed somewhat with some ranks changing, so there is a bit of a ripple effect in the order overall in ultimate compared to regular contest scoring. (the combined best forecast feature has not been added yet) EWP20182019OCT.xlsx

Yep, the only person who ever entered an EWP contest and not a CET the same month was J10 in the 2018 contest year, and that's because he disqualified his entry for being five minutes late but I was using a three hour "extra time" feature. Missing a month in the EWP costs you more than the CET because part of the CET scoring is average error and points, whereas the EWP scoring is simply the total of all scores. However I do show the ranking for average error in EWP for anyone who has entered more than half. There are three forecasters who might want to take note, you haven't been ranked all along but if you enter November and reach 7/12 you will get an error ranking against the field (I think it's nn2013, pegg24 and Thundershine in that category. Another feature that will appear in the next edition of EWP scoring will be a list of all "best combined forecasts" in these first two contest years. I published that back in July 2019 and will check out the values against the spreadsheets then enter the results (that will appear to the far right of the tables after 2018 ranks if you've ever gone that far into the file).

EWP has been posted at 124.5 mm. (this will not affect scoring but file will be updated)

(here's why that missing forecast score for seaside60 was spotted, I was working my way through this table and found that seaside60 had entered all EWP but was shown with 9/10 for CET, which I thought must be unusual so I went back to look ... anyway, making mistakes in tables is not unknown in my own case, I keep amending them as I find them and don't always note the changes unless they have a big impact on somebody's scoring. Thanks J10 for clearing that up, Combined Ranks for CET and EWP contests This table shows ranked positions of all regular entrants in CET contests, with their EWP ranking if they have entered any contests. In those cases where the numbers of contests entered are not the same, the combined rank is only given when the number of EWP contests entered is within two of the number of CET, otherwise, the rank is shown in brackets and not applied to the average ranking. This applies even in a case like nn2013 who entered 9 CET and 5 EWP. Anyone who has entered fewer than 8/10 CET contests will not be ranked for CET therefore cannot be shown in this format even if they have an EWP rank higher than some forecasters shown here. The CET rank in brackets is a subgrouping within those who qualified for a combined rank. Those who play only (or mainly) CET contests are shown here but their positions are based on CET only, and they don't have an average rank although they appear in the order that their CET rank attains. Just to explain using some examples ... Born from the Void has a rank of 4th in CET but 3rd among those who played enough EWP contests to attain an averaged rank. Summer Blizzard is 7th in CET and entered only one EWP contest which left him with a rank of T62, that's not counted as part of his overall rank which is found next to EdStone who has the average rank of 7th for being 6th in CET (5th among those who regularly enter EWP) and 8th in EWP. AVG RANK __ FORECASTER _____ CET rank __ EWP rank ___ played __ --- _______ Quicksilver1989 ______ 1 _______ --- __________ 9, 0 ___ 2.5 ______ Born From the Void __ 4 (3) _____ 1 __________ 10 ___ 3.5 ______ Reef ______________ 5 (4) _____ 2 __________ 10 ___ 7.0 ______Ed Stone ___________ 6 (5) _____ 8 __________ 10 ___ ---- ______ summer blizzard _____ 7 _______ (T62) _______ 10, 1 ___ 7.0 ______ Don _______________ 9 (6) _____ 5 __________ 10 ___ ---- ______ Jonathan F. _________ 8 _______ --- __________10, 0 ___ 8.5 ______ DR(S)NO __________ 11 (8) ____ t-6 _________ 10 ___ 9.0 _____ seaside60 __________ 12 (9) _____t-6 _________ 10 ___ 9.5 ______ Mulzy _____________ 10 (7) _____9 __________10 __ 10.0 ______ Stationary Front _____ 3 (2) _____ 17 _________ 10 __ 11.5 ______ Stargazer __________ 13 (10) ___ 10 _________ 10 __ 12.0 ______ The PIT ____________ 2 (1) _____22 _________ 10 __ 13.0 ______ weather-history ______22 (16) ____ 4 _________ 10 __ --- _______ Summer Sun ________ 14 _______ --- _________ 10, 0 __ 14.5 _____ Feb1991Blizzard ______17 (12) ___ 12 _________ 10 __ --- _______ Man with Beard ______ 16 _______ --- _________ 10, 0 __ 17.5 ______Norrance ___________ 15 (11) __ 20 __________ 10 __ 18.0 _____ J 10 ________________33 (22) ___ 3 __________ 10 __ 18.5 _____ Midlands Ice Age _____ 19 (14) __ 18 __________ 10 __ --- _______ damianslaw _________ 21 _____ --- ___________10, 0 __ 21.5 ______ CheesepuffScott ____t-27 (18) __ 16 __________ 10 __ 21.5 ______DiagonalRedLine ____ 24 (17) ___ 19 __________10 __ 23.0 ______ DAVID SNOW ______ 18 (13) ___ 28 __________10 __ --- ________ sundog ____________23 ______ --- ___________ 8, 0 __ 24.0 ______ Jeff C _____________ 35 (24) ___13 __________ 10 __ 25.0 ______ Kirkcaldy Weather ___ 36 (25) ___14 __________ 10 __ --- ________ Mark Bayley ________25 ______ --- ___________ 9, 0 __ 26.0 ______ daniel* ____________ 41 (28) ___ 11 __________10 __ --- ________ Duncan McAlister ___ 26 ______ --- ___________10,0 __ 26.5 ______ timmytour __________20 (15) ___33 __________ 10 __ --- ________ dancerwithwings ____t-27______ --- __________ 10, 0 __ 28.0 ______ virtualsphere _______ 29 (19) ___ 27 __________10, 9 __ --- ________ nn2013 ___________ 30 ______ (39) _________ 9, 5 __ 30.0 ______ Godber 1 __________ 45 (31) ___ 15 _________ 10, 9 __ 30.5 ______ Roger J Smith ______ 31 (20) ___ 30 __________ 10 __ 33.5 ______ weather26 _________ 32 (21) ___ 35 __________ 10 __ 34.0 ______ davehsug __________39 (27) ___ 29 __________ 10 __ 34.0 ______ Blast from the Past __ 47 (33) ___ 21 __________ 10 __ 34.5 ______ Bobd29 ___________ 38 (26) ___ 31 __________ 10 __ 35.0 ______ I Remember Atl 252 __34 (23) ___ 36 __________ 10 __ 35.0 ______ Let It Snow! ________ 44 (30) ___ 26 ___________ 9, 8 __ 35.5 ______ jonboy _____________46 (32) ___25 ___________ 9 __ 36.0 ______ syed2878 __________ 48 (34) ___24 ___________ 10 __ 36.0 ______ brmbrmcar _________ 49 (35) ___ 23 ___________ 10 __ --- ________ Leo97t ____________ 37 _______(47)__________ 9, 5 __ 37.5 ______ Steve B ____________43 (29) ___ 32 ___________9 __ --- ________ snowray ___________ 40 _______ --- _________ 10, 0 __ --- ________ Walsall Wood Snow __ 42 _______ --- _________ 10, 0 __ 43.5 ______ stewfox ____________ 50 (36) ___ 37 __________ 9 __ 43.5 ______ Polar Gael __________53 (37) ___ 34 __________ 10 __ --- ________ Earthshine __________51 _______(51)__________8, 2 __ --- ________ Kentish Man ________ 52 _______ --- __________10, 0 __ --- ________ ProlongedSnowLover _ 54_______ --- __________ 9, 0 __ 60.5 ______ Lettucing Gutted ______55 ______ 66 __________ 10 Unlike last year, there is beginning to show a trend of similar rankings in both contests. Perhaps the challenge is helping some to improve their CET forecasts? The most anomalous EWP rank is that of J 10 (3rd against 33rd CET), followed by weather-history (4th vs 22nd CET). The most anomalous CET rank appears to be that of The PIT (2nd CET vs 22nd EWP) then Stationary Front (3rd CET vs 17th EWP).

With the final CET numbers in, I corrected the table shown on September 21 (p. 7 of thread) and 2019 finished 11th behind 1995 in the average monthly maximum daily CET May to September. The average of 20.22 was 1.34 lower than the highest value on record in 1868 (21.56). ____________________________ Also, this is the updated top 25 list for the EWP annual contest. I doubt that the tweaking of final numbers on 5th will change any scores as the final value could go down 4.5 mm or up 15.5 before we would have any changes in the order of scoring at all. It is usually set within 1 mm of the provisional. 1 _ Born From The Void ___74.0 2 _ Reef _______________ 69.2 3 _ J10 ________________ 66.3 4 _ weather-history _______ 65.1 5 _ Don ________________ 60.9 t 6_ DR(S)NO ____________59.5 t 6_ seaside60 ___________ 59.5 8 _ EdStone _____________59.1 9 _ Mulzy _______________ 57.8 10 _ Stargazer ___________ 57.6 11 _ Daniel* ______________57.3 12 _ Feb1991Blizzard ______55.7 t13 _JeffC _______________ 54.8 t13 _Kirkcaldy Wx _________54.8 15 _ Godber1 ____________ 54.6 16 _ CheesepuffScott ______ 54.4 17 _ Stationary Front _______54.2 18 _ Midlands Ice Age ______53.7 19 _ DiagonalRedLine ______53.4 20 _ Norrance ____________ 53.0 21 _ Blast from the Past ____ 52.5 22 _ The PIT _____________ 51.0 23 _ brmbrmcar ___________ 50.8 24 _ syed2878 ____________ 50.2 25 _ jonboy _______________49.0 Let it Snow is 26th after taking 10 points for September.. I will work on a combined CET-EWP rankings (with two months left in the contest year). Look for that later this week.

EWP tracker has reached end of the month now, 124 mm (!!) is the verdict. Will post preliminary final scoring soon, not going to be much different from the 105 mm version posted a few days ago. Look for that to be edited into this post soon. Congratulations to Let It Snow! (129 mm) with the closest forecast and top points for September. Annual standings remain the same as last shown (for the top portion, Let It Snow! and SteveB gained a few spots with higher scores on this higher outcome. The best combined forecast was from nn2013 who was second in CET and also in EWP. Third place this month went to brmbrmcar. EWP20182019SEPb.xlsx

1981-2010 CET averages, cumulative and 1772 - 2018 extreme values ________________________________________________________________ Date __ CET __ cum ____ MAX ________ MIN ____________ Running CET extremes 01 ___ 12.9 ___ 12.9 ___ 20.2 (1985) ___ 6.1 (1808&1888) __ 20.2 (1985) ___ 6.1 (1808,88) 02 ___ 12.3 ___ 12.6 ___ 17.9 (2011) ___ 3.6 (1817) ________19.0 (2011) ___ 5.1 (1888) 03 ___ 12.1 ___ 12.4 ___ 19.8 (2011) ___ 4.7 (1817) ________19.3 (2011) ___ 5.2 (1888) 04 ___ 11.9 ___ 12.3 ___ 17.7 (1959) ___ 5.1 (1912) ________18.2 (2011) ___ 5.3 (1888) 05 ___ 11.6 ___ 12.2 ___ 17.9 (1886) ___ 4.6 (1888) ________17.7 (2011) ___ 5.2 (1888) 06 ___ 11.9 ___ 12.1 ___19.0 (1921) ___ 4.1 (1888) ________16.9 (1959) ___ 5.0 (1888) 07 ___ 11.7 ___ 12.1 ___16.9 (1921) ___ 3.5 (1829) ________16.6 (1959) ___ 5.0 (1888) 08 ___ 11.8 ___ 12.0 ___17.7 (1995) ___ 4.1 (1829) ________16.3 (1959) ___ 5.2 (1888) 09 ___ 11.9 ___ 12.0 ___17.5 (1995) ___ 3.3 (1852) ________16.3 (1921) ___ 5.5 (1888) 10 ___ 12.5 ___ 12.0 ___17.8 (1921) ___ 3.5 (1814) ________16.5 (1921) ___ 5.7 (1888) 11 ___ 11.7 ___ 12.0 ___ 17.6 (1978) ___ 3.9 (1860) ________16.5 (1921) ___ 6.0 (1888) 12 ___ 11.6 ___ 12.0 ___ 16.5 (1978) ___ 3.2 (1887) ________16.3 (1921) ___ 6.3 (1888) 13 ___ 11.4 ___ 11.9 ___ 18.5 (2018) ___ 2.2 (1838) ________16.0 (1921) ___ 6.4 (1888) 14 ___ 10.9 ___ 11.8 ___ 17.2 (2017) ___ 3.1 (1838) ________15.8 (1921) ___ 6.4 (1888) 15 ___ 10.8 ___ 11.8 ___ 15.7 (1930) ___ 2.5 (1843) ________15.4 (1921) ___ 6.4 (1888) 16 ___ 10.3 ___ 11.7 ___ 16.4 (2017) ___ 1.8 (1843) ________15.1 (1921) ___ 6.4 (1888) 17 ___ 10.0 ___ 11.6 ___ 15.6 (1897) ___ 2.5 (1824) ________14.9 (1921) ___ 6.5 (1888) 18 ___ 10.1 ___ 11.5 ___ 16.7 (2014) ___ 2.4 (1843) ________14.9 (1921) ___ 6.5 (1817) 19 ___ 10.0 ___ 11.4 ___ 16.3 (1921) ___ 1.5 (1813) ________15.0 (1921) ___ 6.4 (1817) 20 ____ 9.8 ___ 11.3 ___ 14.9 (1795) ___ 2.1 (1842) ________14.7 (1921) ___ 6.4 (1817) 21 ____ 9.6 ___ 11.3 ___ 15.2 (1998) ___ 1.2 (1842) ________14.5 (1921) ___ 6.4 (1817) 22 ____ 9.9 ___ 11.2 ___ 16.2 (1906) ___ 2.5 (1931) ________14.3 (1921) ___ 6.4 (1817) 23 ____ 9.6 ___ 11.1 ___ 14.4 (1998) ___ 0.9 (1859) ________14.0 (1921) ___ 6.4 (1817) 24 ____ 9.4 ___ 11.1 ___ 14.3 (2009) ___ 0.6 (1859) ________13.8 (1995) ___ 6.4 (1817) 25 ____ 9.4 ___ 11.0 __ 14.0 (1978, 2013) _ 2.0 (1784) ______13.7 (1995,2001) __ 6.4 (1817) 26 ____ 9.6 ___ 10.9 ___ 14.7 (1927) ___ 1.5 (1785) ________13.6 (1995,2001) __ 6.4 (1817) 27 ____ 9.8 ___ 10.9 ___ 16.7 (1888) ___ 1.4 (1869) ________13.6 (1995,2001) __ 6.4 (1817) 28 ____ 9.8 ___ 10.9 ___ 15.6 (1888) ___ 0.9 (1895) ________13.5 (2001) ___ 6.3 (1817) 29 ____ 8.9 ___ 10.8 __ 14.0 (1772,1984) _ 0.3 (1895) ______ 13.4 (2001) ___ 6.2 (1817) 30 ____ 9.2 ___ 10.7 ___ 15.5 (2005) ___ 0.7 (1836) ________13.4 (2001) ___ 6.3 (1817) 31 ____ 9.3 ___ 10.7 ___ 16.9 (2014) ___ 0.7 (1836) ________13.3 (2001) ___ 6.4 (1817)* =================================================================== *1740 ended with 5.3 and probably had colder running CET values at any point than these values.

Top eleven for September based on table of entries, as shown above (posting at same time I see) ... (not sure how to incorporate the late penalties here as they go onto an eventual complex annual scoring format, so take this with some flexibility as eventually some of the next batch might score equal or higher numbers of points). 01 __ seaside60 _______ 14.3 (late one day) __ consensus also 02 __ nn2013 _________ 14.2 (3rd entry) _____ 03 __ Midlands Ice Age __ 14.4 (5th entry)_____ 1989-2018 also 04 __ Jeff C ___________ 14.2 (9th entry) 05 __ snowray _________ 14.4 (18th entry) 06 __ DiagonalRedLine __14.2 (21st entry) 07 __ Jonathan F. ______ 14.2 (28th entry) 08 __ Summer Sun _____ 14.4 (38th entry) 09 __ Reef ____________ 14.4 (48th entry) 10 __ Duncan McAlister __14.4 (late one day) 11 __ DR(S)NO ________ 14.4 (late two days) and four each had either 14.1 or 14.5 so by order of entries, they ranked 12th Leo97t (14.5), 13th Summer Blizzard (14.5), 14th Emmett Garland (14.1), 15th Pit (14.5), 16th Beet (14.1), 17th Stationary Front (14.1), 18th Freeze (14.5), 19th Damianslaw (14.1) __ none of these were late so a few of them might end up with a higher rank than 10th or 11th with their late penalties. __ looks like nn2013 captured the best combined forecast, will report on that when final numbers available for EWP. ======================================================================= REPORT ON CONSENSUS and NORMALS SCORING for SEPTEMBER 2019 Dec 2018 _____________________________ Jan 2019 _____________________ Feb 2019 __________ ____FORECAST _ error __ rank __ points ____ FCST __ error__ rank _ points _____ FCST __ error __ rank __ points Consensus_ 5.0 __ -1.9 _ 32 to 32 _ 52.3 _____3.5 ___ -0.5 __16 to 18 _ 75.7 to 78.6 _ 4.0 __ -2.7 _ 33 to 37 _ 48.3 to 54.1 1989-2018*_4.9 __ -2.0 _ 33 to 33 _ 50.8 _____4.7 ___ +0.7 __21 to 23 _ 68.6 to 71.4 _ 4.9 __ -1.8 _ 14 to 14 _ 81.3 1981-2010__4.6 __ -2.3 _ 42 to 44 _ 33.8 to 36.9 _4.4 _ +0.4 __14 to 15 _ 80.0 to 81.4 _ 4.4 __ -2.3 _ 17 to 19 _ 74.2 to 77.0 March 2019 _____________________________ April 2019 _____________________ May 2019 ____FORECAST _ error __ rank __ points _____FCST_error _ rank __ points _______ FCST _ error _ rank __ points consensus _ 6.9 _ --0.9 _ 29 to 33 _ 48.4 to 54.8 _8.4 _ --0.7 _ 24 to 28 _ 55.9 to 62.3 _ 12.3 _ +1.2 _ 28 to 31 _ 50.0-55.0 1989-2018 _ 6.8 __ --1.0 _ 34 to 35 _ 46.2 to 47.8 _8.8 _ --0.3 _ 9 to 13 _ 80.3 to 86.9 __ 12.0 _ +0.9 _ 17 to 20 _ 68.3 to 73.3 1981-2010 _ 6.6 __ --1.2 _ 39 to 39 _ 39.7 ______8.5 _ --0.6 _ 20 to 23 _ 63.9 to 68.6 __ 11.7 _ +0.6 _ 11 to 11 _ 83.3 June 2019 __________________________________ July 2019 ______________________ August 2019 ____FORECAST __ error __ rank __ points _______ FCST _ error _ rank _ points ________ FCST _ error _ rank _ points consensus _ 15.0 _ +0.8 _ 27 to 31 _ 48.1 to 55.0 __ 17.0 _ -0.5 _ 19-24 __ 62.9 to 71.0 ____17.0 _ --0.1 __ 3 to 13 __ 81.0 to 96.8 1989-2018 _ 14.6 _ +0.4 _ 11 to 15 _ 75.8 to 82.7 __ 16.9 _ -0.6 _ 25-30 __ 53.2 to 61.3 ____16.5 _ --0.6 __38 to 43 __ 33.6 to 41.5 1981-2010 _ 14.5 _ +0.3 __ 6 to 10 _ 84.4 to 91.3 __ 16.7 _ -0.8 _ 34-39 __ 38.7 to 46.8 ____16.4 _ --0.7 __44 to 44 __ 32.0 to 32.0 ____________________________________________________________________________________________ September 2019 ______________________________________________ Average (10 months) ____FORECAST __ error __ rank __ points _________________________ abs err __ rank __ points consensus ________ 0.0 _ 01 to 01_ 100.0 __________________________ 0.94 __ 21 to 24 _ 61.8 to 67.7 1989-2018 ________-0.1 _ 02 to 11 _ 84.6 to 98.5 _____________________0.84 __ 20 to 24 _ 66.4 to 69.5 1981-2010 ________-0.3 _ 20 to 25 _ 63.0 to 70.7 _____________________0.95 __ 26 to 28 _ 58.5 to 62.4 =========================================================================================== Despite a perfect consensus forecast, 1989-2018 stayed in the lead with a small error of 0.1 and 1981-2010 has fallen further behind in this contest. ___________________________________________________

... This will be edited to include late entries ... consensus so far 10.9 C and 102.0 mm ... Table of entries for October 2019 _ number in brackets shows order of entry _ second number is for EWP when different from CET order of entry _ 15.5 __ 200.0 __ Lettucing Gutted (1) ______________ 10.9 __ 123.0 __ coldest winter (L1-3) 12.5 __ 102.0 __ syed2878 (41) ___________________10.8 __ 100.0 __ Jeff C (10) _______ 12.1 __ 134.0 __ virtualsphere (13) _________________10.8 __ 111.0 __ Bobd29 (3) ______ 12.0 __ ------ __ Jonathan F. (12) ___________________10.7 __ ------ __ Summer Blizzard (8) _ 12.0 ___ 35.0 __ Thundershine (38) ________________10.7 __ 107.2 __ Midlands Ice Age (36) 11.6 __ ------ __ Man with Beard (25) ________________ 10.7 __ ------ __ sundog (43) _______ 11.6 __ 130.0 __ Born from the Void (L1-4) ___________10.7 __ 104.1 __ 1981-2010 average 11.5 __ ------ __ Summer Sun (26) __________________10.6 __ ------ __ Leo97t (29) _______ 11.5 __ 188.0 __ I Remember Atlantic 252 (30) _______ 10.5 __ 79.4 __ Kirkcaldy Weather (5) 11.5 __ 119.0 __ Reef (47) _______________________ 10.5 __ 116.0 __ Weather26 (4) ____ 11.5 __ ------ __ Quicksilver1989 (53) _______________ 10.5 __ 109.0 __ Stationary Front (39) 11.5 __ 100.0 __ Mulzy (55) ______________________ 10.5 __ 150.0 __ Godber.1 (52) _____ 11.4 __ ------ __ snowray (19) _____________________ 10.4 __ ------ __ Prolonged SnowLover (11) 11.4 __ ------ __ DAVID SNOW (45) _________________10.3 ___ 95.3 __ CheesePuffScott (2) __ 11.3 __ 167.0 __ SteveB (17) ______________________10.2 __ 120.0 __ Booferking (54) _____ 11.3 ___ 84.0 __ seaside60 (49) ___________________ 10.1 ___ 82.0 __ Feb1991Blizzard (23,45*) 11.2 __ 100.0 __ EdStone (21,9*) ___________________10.1 __ ------ __ damianslaw (35) _____ 11.2 ___ 65.0 __ Norrance (42) ____________________ 10.0 ___ 64.0 __ brmbrmcar (28) _____ 11.2 ___ ------ __ Mark Bayley (L1-1) ________________ 10.0 __ 215.7 __ Roger J Smith (32, 51*) 11.2 ___ ------ __ Duncan McAlister (L1-5) ____________ 11.1 ___ 88.0 __ Pegg24 (18) _____________________ 10.0 ___ 85.0 __ weather-history (44) 11.1 ___ 56.0 __ Emmett Garland (7) _________________9.9 __ ------ __ Walsall Wood Snow (31) 11.1 __ 103.0 __ Stargazer (27) _____________________ 9.9 ___ 96.0 __ daniel* (33) _______ 11.1 __ 110.0 __ Don (51) _________________________ 9.9 __ ------ __ Beet (46) __________ 11.0 __ ------ __ dancerwithwings (20) ________________ 9.8 __ 120.0 __ freeze (24)________ 11.0 ___ 75.0 __ The PIT (34) ______________________ 9.8 __ 103.0 __ jonboy (40) _______ 11.0 ___ 99.5 __ 1989-2018 average ________________ 9.7 __ 120.0 __ Blast from the Past (14) 10.9 ___ ------ __ Relativistic (16) ___________________ 9.7 ___ 70.0 __ DiagonalRedLine (6) _ 10.9 ___ 98.0 __ Radiating Dendrite (15) _____________ 9.6 ___ ------ __ Kentish Man (L1-2) ___ 10.9 ___ 75.2 __ Polar Gael (9) _____________________9.5 __ 140.0 __ Steve Murr (48) ______ 10.9 __ 115.0 __ DR(S)NO (22) _____________________9.4 ___ 99.0 __ nn2013 (50) _________ 10.9 __ 105.0 __ J10 (56) _________________________ 8.5 ___ 77.0 __ timmytour (37) _______ 10.9 __ 103.0 ___ consensus __ 56 on-time forecasts, five that are one day late, total 61 ... consensus (median) __ 10.9 ==================================================================================== EWP forecasts in order 215.7 _RJS ... ... 200 _LG ... ... 188 _IRA252 ... 167 SteveB ... 150 _Godb ... 140 _SMur ... 134 _vir ... 130 BFTV ... 123 _cw ... 120 _BFTP, fre, boof ... 119 _reef ... 116 _wx26 ... 115 _DRS ... 111 _Bob ... 110 _Don ... 109 SF ...107.2 _MIA 105 _J10 ... 104.1 _81-10 ... 103 _star, jon, con ... 102 _syed, ... 100 _EdS, Jeff, Mul ... 99.5 _89-18 ... 99 _nn 98 _ Rad ... 96 _dan* ... 95.3 _CPS ... 88 _pegg ... 85 _w-h ... 84 _sea ... 82 _Feb ... 79.4 KW ... 77 _tim 75.2 _PG ... 75 _Pit ... 70 _DRL ... 65 _Norr ... 64 _brm ... 56 _EG ... 35 _Thun __ 41 on-time forecasts, two that are one day late, median (consensus) 103.0 mm __

Yes, EWP was 103 mm after 28th and looks to have added at least 5 mm on 29th (15-20 mm in parts of north). Today's final contribution could be 15 mm or more. Something in the 123-128 mm range now quite possible. Only slight changes to the provisional scoring as few forecasts were above the last value used, so not many scores will change more than 0.5, this could be a new high water mark for LG scoring though.

10.0 with a shocking amount of rain, wettest month ever? 215.7 mm. (edit from 245.7)

EWP continues to expand now around 80 mm and possibly heading as high as 110 mm. Here is updated provisional scoring for 104.9 mm. EWP20182019SEP.xlsx

In the daily EWP records (which begin in 1931) there are only two Septembers that were below 30 mm at mid-month and ended up over 90 mm at end of the month: September 1999 had a dry first thirteen days totalling 10.8 mm and added 9.7 on 14th-15th to reach 20.5 mm at the halfway point. The second half was very wet and the month ended at 124.9 mm. September 2000 was similar except that it added too much on 14th-15th to a small previous total, and was over 37 mm on its way to 132.6 mm. Then September 2012 had a similar pattern to this year as well. The total was only 12 mm at the halfway point and 23 mm as late as the 22nd. From there it ballooned to a final total of 92.8 mm (23rd to 25th had over 20 mm each day). The highest percentage of monthly rainfall in the second half was in Sept 2007 when 93% of the rain fell in the second half, but this was a relatively dry month. In Sept 1991 which had a fairly average total of 64.9 mm, only 9 mm of that fell in the first fifteen days, so about 85% fell in the second half. For the CEP series which I have on excel file, the percentage was 95.5% (second half rainfall in 1991). The second place month in that stat was 90% in Sept 2007.

Latest EWP was 64 mm by 24th with at least 6 mm added on 25th, and looks like 30-40 mm potential now in the time remaining. Will set the new provisional at 105 mm which makes nn2013 most likely dual contest winner. Don't have time today to scramble the excel file but from raw data just input, this would be the annual scoring (top 20 listed) 1 _ Born From The Void ____74.4 2 _ Reef ________________ 69.8 3 _ J10 _________________ 66.9 4 _ weather-history ________65.5 5 _ Don _________________61.3 6 _ DR(S)NO ____________ 60.2 7 _ seaside60 ____________59.9 8 _ EdStone _____________59.5 9 _ Mulzy _______________ 58.2 10 _ Stargazer ___________ 58.0 11 _ Daniel* ______________57.9 12 _ Feb1991Blizzard ______56.2 t13 _JeffC, Kirkcaldy Wx ____55.4 t15 _Godber1, CPS, StatFr __54.8 18 _ Midlands Ice Age _____ 54.2 19 _ DiagonalRedLine _____ 54.1 20 _ Norrance ____________53.4

EWP still on track to reach 80 mm. It was up to 31 mm after 22 days and 23rd will add about 7 or 8, based on a very wet southwest and south central, trending to dry in the northeast. Then the six to seven days of GFS projections from today to 30th appear to average 40 mm across the country, once again wet in the southwest and relatively dry in the northeast. Looking at the forecasts, would say JeffC (14.2, 82 mm) is in a very good spot for best combined forecast, DiagonalRedLine has 14.2 and 67 mm. Also in the running would be emmett garland with 14.1 and 67 mm, and Stationary Front with 14.1 and 88 mm. Seaside60 also in the mix with 14.3, 68 mm.

Just in process of updating the excel file, will post this to answer and add the excel file when ready. ... you are currently in 11th place on the assumed 80 mm (the target moved past your forecast, two moved both ways from earlier scoring order). As to strategy in last two months of contest, would only say that once you have a ballpark idea of the outcome, you might want to see where the field have placed their bets, this month for example if you had been thinking "around 70" you would have noticed more going above than below so you might bump it up slightly to remain in the middle of the group you think you will score similarly. Probably it makes so little difference I wouldn't advise trying to out-think the stats on it, if you're right on you get the max points. So ... EWP had reached 26 mm after 21st, looks to have added about 4 mm on 22nd (amounts were generally lower than that with pockets of 10-20 mm in the west and north). GFS 7-day estimates are still high, 60-70 mm in the south and 30-40 mm in the north. The outcome could be as high as 80 mm now. The new excel file on that provisional outcome using 79.9 mm to reduce the number of tied scores is now added to the post (a lot of reshuffling) but the top three annual order has changed a bit to Born from the Void, Reef and J10 with weather-history now just into fourth and EdStone now in fifth place ... top ten would not change much if we go past 80 mm as most of those higher forecasts are down quite a way in the mid-range of the scoring now. EWP20182019SEP.xlsx

This is an update of a table posted in August about the average value of monthly maximum daily means (2019 ended up tied with 1995 for the highest average of June, July and August max and was second to 1947 in terms of the highest value exceeded in all months, 21.7 vs 21.8 for (July) 1947. Here's where we stand after 21st averaged 17.4 to become the warmest day of this month. (edit on 2nd Oct _ final numbers reduced that to 16.8, the table is now in final form). Rank _ Year ___ MAY __ JUN __ JUL __ AUG__ SEP ___Mean ___ 2019 ties with this _01 __ 1868 ___ 20.4 __ 20.6 __ 23.2 __ 22.5 __ 21.1 ___ 21.56 _____ (23.5) _02 __ 1947 ___ 20.8 __ 23.0 __ 21.8 __ 22.1 __ 18.8 ___ 21.30 _____ (22.2) _03 __ 2006 ___ 17.4 __ 20.8 __ 24.5 __ 20.9 __ 21.4 ___ 21.00 _____ (20.7) _04 __ 1911 ___ 17.9 __ 19.5 __ 23.4 __ 23.6 __ 19.8 ___ 20.84 _____ (19.9) _05 __ 1780 ___ 21.2 __ 19.4 __ 21.2 __ 20.3 __ 21.8 ___ 20.78 _____ (19.6) _06 __ 2005 ___ 18.3 __ 22.1 __ 22.0 __ 20.9 __ 20.4 ___ 20.74 _____ (19.4) _07 __ 2003 ___ 18.9 __ 19.9 __ 22.7 __ 23.9 __ 17.1 ___ 20.50 _____ (18.2) _08 __ 1781 ___ 20.0 __ 20.9 __ 20.8 __ 20.8 __ 19.5 ___ 20.40 _____ (17.7) _09 __ 2016 ___ 17.8 __ 18.9 __ 23.5 __ 20.2 __ 21.3 ___ 20.34 _____ (17.4) _10 __ 1995 ___ 16.5 __ 20.3 __ 23.4 __ 24.9 __ 16.5 ___ 20.32 _____ (17.3) _11 __ 2019 ___ 15.7 __ 21.7 __ 25.2 __ 21.7 __ 16.8 ___ 20.22 _____ (16.8) _12 __ 1834 ___ 18.0 __ 21.8 __ 22.3 __ 19.9 __ 18.3 ___ 20.06 _____ (16.0) _13 __ 2001 ___ 17.6 __ 21.9 __ 23.0 __ 21.0 __ 16.8 ___ 20.06 _____ (16.0) _14 __ 1846 ___ 16.7 __ 22.0 __ 21.6 __ 21.7 __ 18.1 ___ 20.02 _____ (15.8) _15 __ 1858 ___ 18.9 __ 22.9 __ 20.7 __ 19.9 __ 17.6 ___ 20.00 _____ (15.7) _16 __ 2009 ___ 16.6 __ 21.4 __ 22.5 __ 19.8 __ 19.7 ___ 20.00 _____ (15.7) ================================================================= Interesting that there is no year between 1911 and 1995 in this top sixteen table except 1947. This year is now tied for 9th for average max in the five warmest months with 2016. 2006 attained its third place ranking on today's date with the record high of 21.4 for this date, also a latest of season exceptional record (no higher values later in the autumn). Today might have stood some chance of breaking a daily record on the 23rd when it is in the mid-18s (1956).

Not that it makes much difference to your argument but your prediction is 69.8, weather-history has same CET as you (13.8) and 67 mm. I checked the scoring and your upward potential is probably just one or maybe two spots in the table for a perfect hit, most of the people ahead of you would gain some points too from the provisional scoring so your net gain would be fairly small except against Godber.1 who you might pass. You would likely pass CheesepuffScott. Everyone else ahead of you has a similar or wetter forecast and will be gaining some points from what is shown now. You two have some chance of scooping best overall forecast with those numbers. I will edit in other possible winners in that dual contest. Had a look, probably CET will be adjusted down far enough to rule out the 14s so your main competition comes from Mulzy (13.9, 66) and davehsug (13.9, 69). A slightly drier and warmer outcome might make first time forecaster East Lancs Rain (14.0, 50) our dual champ. There are some other good ones at 14.1 and 14.2.

Two points to add -- the EWP still poised to take a jump, and 67 mm is not entirely off the table by the looks of the (now) nine-day GFS accumulations which are generally above 40 mm. Remains to be seen. As to longer term northerlies on GFS, seems like many of them are muted or non-existent come the day, have seen quite a few in that time frame disappear this past year. We didn't get much surface warmth from the past few days of warm uppers, although yesterday and today will be fairly warm, not record breakers apparently.

EWP stuck on 23 mm through today I would think (to 18th for sure, 19th was dry) and GFS (two versions checked) looks rather wet although I notice that much of that rain has to fall from fronts associated with former hurricane Humberto, and what if that's more wind and less rain? Then the 50-60 mm shown on these charts could back down to more like 30. So for now I won't work on the excel file, will wait and see what we actually get Monday and Tuesday then make some changes and post for your info. Most of the current annual leaders will just separate more from the chase pack as they are all generally higher than the last provisional used. CheesepuffScott, Blast, DAVID SNOW and myself would sink down a few places if we go much past 50 mm.

(1) October C.E.T. averages and extremes 20.2 ... warmest day, 1st 1985 20.1 ... second warmest day, 1st 2011 13.3 ... warmest Oct 2001 13.1 ... second warmest Oct 2005 13.0 ... third warmest Octs, 1969 and 2006 12.9 ... fifth warmest Oct, 1995 12.8 ... sixth warmest Oct 1921 12.7 ... seventh warmest Oct and warmest of 19th century 1831 12.6 ... eighth warmest Octs 1959, 2011 12.5 ... tenth warmest Octs 1968, 2013, 2014 12.4 ... 13th warmest Oct 2017 12.3 ... tied 14th and warmest of 18th century 1731 (with 1811) 12.1 and 12.2 ... have never occurred in all 360 years 12.0 ... only occurrence was 1818 (16th warmest) 11.9 ... 1990 (from here down to coldest months, occurrences including ties before 1981 are not listed) 11.8 ... 11.7 ... 1989, 1996 11.6 ... 2009 11.5 ... 11.4 ... 11.3 ... mean 2001-2018 11.2 ... 11.1 ... 1984 11.0 ... mean 1991-2018 and 1989-2018 ... ... 1985, 1986, 2015 10.9 ... mean 1986-2015 ... ... ... 2007, 2016 10.8 ... 10.7 ... mean 1981-2010 ... ... ... 1999 10.6 ... mean 1961-1990 ... ... ... 1998, 2018 10.5 ... 1983, 2004 10.4 ... mean 1971-2000 ... ... ... 1988 10.3 ... 2000, 2010 10.2 ... mean 1901-2000 ... ... ... 1991, 1994, 1997 10.1 ... 1982, 2002 10.0 ... 9.9 ... 9.8 ... 9.7(3) ... mean for all 360 years 1659-2018 ... ... ... 1987, 2008, 2012 9.6 ... 9.5 .... mean 1801-1900 9.4 .... mean 1701-1800 9.3 .... mean 1659-1700 9.2 ... 2003 8.6 ... 1981 8.5 ... 1993 7.8 .... tied 26th coldest Oct, coldest Oct recent past, 1974 and 1992 7.5 .... tied 8th coldest Oct, coldest Oct 20th century 1905 6.9 ... fifth coldest Oct 1896 6.5 .... tied 3rd coldest Octs, 1683 and 1692 6.4 .... second coldest Oct 1817 5.3 .... coldest Oct 1740 0.3 .... coldest day 29th, 1895 (since daily records began in 1772 -- 1740 could have produced a colder day) __________________ _ _ _ Enter your CET forecast by Monday September 30th at midnight, or with increasing late penalties on the first three days of October. =============================================================================== (2) Optional E.W.P. forecast contest 218.1 mm __ 1903 _ wettest 1766-2018... also wettest month of any name 188.0 mm __ 2000 _ wettest 1981-2018 (second wettest all Octobers). 180.2 mm __ 1987 _ third wettest October 104.1 mm __ mean for 1981-2010 99.5 mm __ mean for 1989-2018 95.6 mm __ mean for all 253 Octobers 1766 to 2018 46.0 mm ___2016 _ driest 1981-2018 (46.7 in 1985 was a close second) 17.2 mm ___1978 _ driest since 1809 (1969 was close at 17.5 mm) __ 8.8 mm __1781 _ driest 1766-2017 (Hadley) ... 1809 _ 10.9 mm and 1784 _ 15.7 mm also drier than 1978 note also: October is the wettest month 1981-2010 although November is wettest 1989-2018, and December is also wetter than October in that 30-year period. The wettest 30-year average for October was 106.9 mm for 1865-1894, almost matched recently by 106.1 mm for 1986 - 2015. The driest 30-year average for October was 77.1 mm for 1946-75. __________________________ _ _ _ ___________________________________________________ Recent Oct EWP ... 75.8 in 2018, 51.5 in 2017, 46.0 in 2016, 68.4 in 2015, 118.3 in 2014, 157.6 in 2013, 127.7 in 2012. __________________________________________________________________________________ Enter your EWP forecast with your CET forecast, same deadlines apply. Good luck ! !

EWP is 23 mm through 17th and looks to add 25 mm in next ten days from 06z GFS (possibly 30). That leaves part of 28th to 30th where another 5 mm looked possible from charts. Going with 48.1 mm for new provisional keeping in mind GFS tendency to overestimate rainfall sometimes. This is how scoring will look and I wouldn't imagine much change from this for any value in the 50-60 range as most of the higher scores for September that would come down slightly are in the occasional or one-time section anyway. (scoring for 48.1 mm) EWP20182019SEP.xlsx

The same sequence of temperatures was observed in eastern North America also. January 1945 at Toronto had an average of -9.4, and it was particularly cold around the 25th (minimum -25 C). There was no rain during the month and a total of 46 cms snow. Then February had a much more normal -3.3 C average, and roughly equal amounts of rain and snow (in liquid equivalent terms) which for Toronto is a normal outcome in either January or February. March 1945 and the first half of April were record breaking warm, with readings as high as 90 F in New York City at the end of March, then after mid-April it turned quite cold and stayed that way through May 1945 into early June 1945 which had the only recorded trace of snow for June in station history at Toronto's downtown location. Those are all similar trends although the cooling towards May/June was less pronounced in the CET. After several record highs in mid-April (CET) there was a record low at the end of April. It is unusual for Toronto and CET temperatures to remain in phase for an extended period, especially when cold is involved as well as warmth. By the winter of 1946-47 the trends were largely out of phase.