Roger J Smith

Mildest Jan-Feb pairs arranged in order of lower CET valiue ... and yes it has happened that both exceeded 6.0 1990 _ 6.5, 7.3 1846 _ 6.3, 6.4 1733 _ 6.9, 6.0 1686 _ 6.5, 6.0 1989 _ 6.1, 5.9 2007 _ 7.0, 5.8 2014 _ 5.7, 6.2 1869 _ 5.6, 7.5 1834 _ 7.1, 5.6 1923 _ 5.6, 5.6 2002 _ 5.5, 7.0 1974 _ 5.9, 5.4 1761 _ 5.4, 5.8

Here are some similar data (compaed to Cambridge Bay and Resolute) for Eureka, which is further north located in central Ellesmere Island, at 80N 86W and just 10 meters above sea level in a glacial valley surrounded by permanent ice fields and glaciers. Since the summer here is quite brief, I have left out the variables such as last frost, last snow cover, first frost and first snow cover. We'll check the trends on temperatures of both extremes, maximum snow depth and first autumn -20 C reading.. It should be noted that the prevailing climate is much drier than in the central arctic islands, and 10-15 cm snow cover is quite typical with strong winds sometimes leading to patches of bare frozen ground. The climate is drier than further south, and is known as "arctic desert" although it does support some scrubby vegetation that persist despite a very short growth season mid-June to early August. Most summers have very little rain and can continue to see sporadic light snowfalls, but one or two cases were noted of 25 mm rainfalls. A daily snowfall of more than 10 cm would be unusual at any point in the season. One heavier snowfall noted was 18 cm Sept 17-19 1966. The snow pack stays fairly constant once it reaches maximum depth and only begins to melt at the very end of May or first week of June. |At this latitude, darkness begins in early November and lasts until mid-February. Continual daylight begins in late April and persists to early August. The min temp and coldest month could be in the preceding Nov or Dec although usually as shown they are in the part of the winter in the same calendar year. So what is showing is the coldest reading of each winter, not each calendar year. YEAR ____ Min temp _ coldest mo __ Max snow depth ___ Max temp _ warmest mo __ first -20 1948 _____ -52.8 Mar __ -42.6 Feb __ _____________ ___ 18.9 Jul ___ 6.2 Jul _____ Sep 17 1949 _____ -49.4 Dec __ -41.8 Dec __ _____________ ___ 15.0 Jul ___ 5.9 Jul _____ Sep 29 1950 _____ -50.6 Feb __ -42.0 Jan __ _____________ ___ 19.4 Jul ___ 6.1 Jul _____ Sep 17 1951 _____ -50.0 Jan __ -40.3 Feb __ _____________ ___ 15.6 Jul ___ 5.7 Jul _____ Sep 27 1952 _____ -51.2 Jan __ -38.8 Dec __ _____________ ___ 16.7 Jul ___ 6.7 Jul _____ Oct 1 1953 _____ -50.6 Mar __ -39.6 Feb __ _____________ ___ 12.8 Jul ___ 4.2 Jul _____ Sep 23 1954 _____ -47.8 Feb __ -38.4 Jan __ _____________ ___ 16.1 Jun ___ 5.6 Jul _____ Oct 2 1955 _____ -48.9 Feb __ -40.1 Mar __ _____________ ___ 13.3 Aug ___3.8 Jul,Aug _ Oct 2 1956 _____ -52.2 Mar __ -37.7 Mar __37 cm Apr 17-Jun 2 _ 14.4 Jul ___ 5.5 Jul _____ Sep 23 1957 _____ -48.9 Jan __ -40.5 Jan __ 10 cm Mar 1-May 14_ 17.8 Jun __ 6.8 Jul _____ Sep 29 1958 _____ -52.2 Feb __ -41.5 Dec __23 cm Jan 23-May 17_18.9 Jul __ 5.8 Jul _____ Oct 2 1959 _____ -48.3 Feb __ -39.6 Mar __20 cm Jan 20-May 31_16.7 Jul __ 6.3 Jul _____ Sep 29 1960 _____ -51.2 Mar __ -39.5 Mar __23 cm May 6-14 _____17.2 Jun __ 6.6 Jul _____ Oct 1 mean _____ -50.3 _____ -40.2 _____ 23 cm Mar 7-May 10 __16.4 _____ 5.8 ________ Sep 27 1961 _____ -51.2 Mar __ -39.7 Mar __18 cm Feb 18-May 30 _15.6 Aug _ 4.5 Jul _____ Sep 14 1962 _____ -46.7 J, F __ -39.1 Feb __ 28 cm Apr 1-29 _____ 18.3 Jul __ 7.5 Jul _____ Sep 26 1963 _____ -48.9 Jan __ -39.1 Mar __ 28 cm Feb 11-May 27_ 15.0 Jul __ 5.8 Jul _____ Sep 29 1964 _____ -51.2 Mar __ -38.8 Mar __ 25 cm Apr 30-May 7 __12.2 Aug _ 3.7 Aug _____Sep 28 1965 _____ -45.2 Feb __ -37.2 Feb __ 15 cm May 7 - 21 ____ 16.7 Aug _ 4.1 Jul _____ Sep 20 1966 _____ -53.3 Jan __ -39.4 Mar __ 18 cm May 11-21 ____ 14.4 Aug _ 5.3 Aug _____Sep 25 1967 _____ -51.7 Feb __ -41.7 Feb __ 23 cm Jan 4-Apr 4 ___ 14.4 Jun _ 4.5 Jul _____ Sep 25 1968 _____ -51.2 Jan __ -40.0 Jan __ 20 cm Feb 24-Apr 30 _ 18.3 Jul __6.3 Jul _____ Sep 29 1969 _____ -48.3 Mar __ -38.6 Mar __ 18 cm May 9 - 21 ____ 13.3 Jun _ 4.6 Jul _____ Sep 19 1970 _____ -50.6 Jan __ -37.9 Feb __ 30 cm Apr 10-May 22 _ 13.3 Aug _ 5.3 Jul _____ Sep 24 mean _____-49.9 ______-39.2 ______22 cm Mar 26- May 12 _ 15.2 ____ 5.2 ________Sep 24 ====================================================== In these first 23 years of data, not much change decade to decade, there was a slight decrease in the summer temperature parameters and the -20 C season began a bit earlier (by three days). Will be posting the continuation of these tables over the next 2-3 days.

EWP around 30 mm as of 18z then adding about 30 mm according to 18z GFS, to 22nd .. maps from there to end of run on 28th look rather dry (5 mm) but heavier rain approaching on final map of the run. All told, could be heading for 70-90 mm on those indications.

That record mild January in 1916 was down to 7.6 by the 14th and never went outside the range 7.4 to 7.8 for a running mean to end of the month. January 2007 was running warmer than 8.0 as late as the 22nd before falling out of first place. I am not seeing any slam-dunk warmer than 1916 outcome in the charts, some of them look a bit cooler than 6 C at times, and I suspect Gavin in the other realm will be quite close with that estimate. Chances of LG winning are slim in part because several entrants chose to go higher than 7.5 themselves. Looking at the maps, I would say it would be a life or death struggle for 2020 to beat out 1916 but it could, more likely to finish in the 6 to 7 range perhaps.

Also 1855 turned very cold in February, and 1950 had a cold spell later in January. So it can happen. But most of those months stayed rather mild or very mild.

By the 8th, all of these Januaries were running warmer than 7.0 after eight days ... 1992 __ 8.8 1916 __ 8.7 2013 __ 8.0 2007 __ 7.9 1950 __ 7.8 1932, 1975, 1983 __ 7.7 1921 __ 7.6 1855 __ 7.5 1873, 2005 __ 7.4 1902, 1957, 1999 __ 7.3 1869, 1937, 1976, 2012 __ 7.2 1782, 2014 __ 7.1 1948, 1989 __ 7.0 __________________________ That's a total of 23 out of 248 in the daily data period.

So far I've been accused of cherry-picking and having a cult following. If there are any other little scolds or mini-Gretas out there with a bone to pick, let's say January 9th could be International Hate Roger Smith Day and let's get it all out in the open.

For those having problems opening the excel files for scoring, this is a simplified version based on errors (late penalties may mean that your rank for points could be a bit lower. If your error ranks just behind someone with a late penalty, then you may have a slightly better outcome in points. Summary of scoring for both contests _ results _ 5.8 C and 121.6 mm CET _rank__EWP_rank__Forecaster (entry) _________ CET _rank__EWP_rank__Forecaster (entry) 5.8 __ 1 _ 143.0 _ 28 _ Timmytour ( 4 ) _____________ 4.5 __72 _ --- --- --- --- __ Prolonged SnowLover (111) _______________ 5.9 __ 2 _ 85.0 __ 70 _ cheeky_monkey ( 5 ) _________4.5 __73 _ --- --- --- --- __ Mark Bayley (L1-4) _______________ 5.9 __ 3 _ 111.1 __ 15 __ Stationary Front ( 7 ) _______ 4.4 __74 __ 91.4 __ 52 __Kirkcaldy Weather ( 6 ) __________________ 5.7 __ 4 __ 90.0 __ 55__ swfc (30) _________________4.4 __75 __ 90.0 __ 53 __Jonathan F. (13) _____________ 5.7 __ 5 _ 115.0 ___ 7 __ Pinball Wizard (38) _________4.4 __76 __ 60.0 _ 109__nn2013 (18) ________________ 5.9 __ 6 _ 101.0 __ 27__ selliso (48) ________________4.4 __77 __ 70.0 _ 102 __Shunter (84) ________________ 5.7 __ 7 _ 121.0 __ 2 __ Kentspur (54) ______________ 7.2 __78 _ 122.0 __ 1 __ 'Cold is best' (47) ________ 5.9 __ 8 _--- --- --- --- __ dancerwithwings (57) ________ 4.4 __79 __ 96.0 __ 38 __Bullseye (116) ______________ 5.7 __ 9 __ 71.4 _100__ sawan (96) ________________ 4.4 __80 __ 88.0 __ 64 __seaside60 (L1-6) ____________ 5.9 __10 --- --- --- --- __ Fozfoster (100) _____________ 4.3 __81 _133.0 __ 17 __ virtualsphere ( 9 ) _______ 6.0 __11 __ 93.3 __ 46__ Weather26 ( 8 ) ___________ 4.3 __82 __ 59.0 __111 __ DiagonalRedLine (34) ___ 5.5 __12 __ 90.0 __ 54__ syed2878 (21) ____________ 4.3 __83 _113.0 __ 12 __ brmbrmcar (69) _________ 6.1 __13 _120.0 ___ 4 __ Relativistic (49) ____________4.3 __84 __ 74.0 __ 97 __SteveB (82) ____________ 6.1 __14 __ 92.0 __ 48__ mb018538 (52) ____________4.3 __85 __ 45.0 __118__Barry Reynolds (103) ____ 6.1 __15 _104.0 __ 25__ Sky Full (65) ______________ 4.3 __86 __ 69.0 __104__ Born from the Void (104) _ 6.1 __16 _ --- --- --- --- __ Anthony Burden (71) ________4.3 __87 _ --- --- --- --- __ Connor Bailey Degnan (115) _ 5.5 __17 _ 112.0 __ 14 __Reef (80) _________________4.2 __88 __ 78.0 __ 84 __Tony Beets (31) ________ 5.4 __18 _ 117.4 ___ 5 __Thundery Wintry Showers (61) _4.2 __89 __ 75.0 __ 93 __Ice Day (42) __________ 6.2 __19 __ 99.9 __ 32 __Coopsy (64) ______________ 4.2 __90 _ --- --- --- --- __ sundog (76) __________ 5.4 __20 __ 73.0 __ 98 __Summer of 95 (75) _________ 4.2 __91 _ 110.0 __ 19 __That ECM (86) ________ 5.3 __21 _ 135.0 __ 22 __ Shillitocet (15) _____________ 4.2 __92 __ 95.0 __ 43 __Ricky Cor (107) _______ 5.3 __22 __ 80.0 __ 78 __The_Pit (29) _______________ 4.2 __93 _ --- --- --- --- __ Duncan McAlister (135) __ 5.3 __23 _ 100.0 __ 29 __Twilight (51) _______________ 4.1 __94 __ 77.7 __ 86 __cal (55) ____________ 5.3 __24 _ --- --- --- --- __ Man with Beard (125) ________ 4.1 __95 __ 95.0 __ 42 __Ed Stone (79) ______ 5.3 __25 _ 100.0 __ 31 __Jack Wales (L1-5) ___________4.1 __96 __ 80.0 __ 80 __daniel* (114) ________ 5.2 __26 _ 163.0 __77 __ Storming15 (25) _____________4.0 __97 __ --- --- --- --- __ Kentish Man (91) ____ 5.2 __27 __ 86.0 __ 68 __Winter Hill (101) ____________ 4.0 __98 __ 50.0 __115__Leo97t (95) ________ 5.2 __28 __ --- --- --- --- __cyclonic happiness (112) _____7.6 __ 99__ 77.7 __ 87 _ Backtrack (62) __ 6.4 __29 __ 77.8 __ 85 __Roger J Smith (127) _________4.0 __100__ 60.0 __110 __blizzard91 (119) _____ 5.2 __30 __ 92.0 __ 51 __ghoneym (128) _____________ 4.0 __101_ 110.0 __ 20 __icykev (121) ________ 5.1 __31 _ 123.0___ 3 __ Radiating Dendrite ( 2 ) _______3.9 __102__ 45.0 _117 __freeze (45) _________ 5.1 __32 _ --- --- --- --- __ BARRY (24) ________________3.9 __103 _114.0 __ 11 __Dean E (60) _________ 5.1 __33 __ 80.0 __ 79 __Joneseye (89) ______________3.9 __104__ 85.0 __ 73 __Loubie_4 (126) ______ 5.1 __34 _ --- --- --- --- __ Froze were the Days (110) _____3.9 __105__ 96.0 __ 39 __Blast from the Past (134) __ 5.0 __35 __ 88.2 __ 59 __LottieKent (44) ______________3.8 __106__ 84.0 __ 74 __mother nature rocks (23) __ 5.0 __36 __ 89.0 __ 57 __shuggee (72) _______________ 3.8 __107__ 76.0 __ 92 __stewfox (43) _________ 5.0 __37 __ 92.0 __ 50 __MattTarrant (106) ____________ 3.7 __108__ 72.0 __ 99 __pegg24 (28) _________ 4.9 __38 _102.5 __ 27 __ 1989-2018 average __________ 7.9 __109 _ --- --- --- --- __ Carl46Wrexham (35) ________________ 4.6 __60 __ 97.4 __ 35 __ 1981-2010 average __________3.7 __110__ 65.0 __108 __badgers01 (63) _________ 4.9 __38 __ 85.0 __ 71 __Rollo (53) __________________ 3.7 __111__ 75.0 __ 95 __ nicknacknoo (87) ________ 4.9 __39 _ 106.9 __ 21 __ARW Weather Man (73) _______3.7 __112 _ --- --- --- --- __ Beet (93) _______________ 4.9 __40 _ 104.0 __ 26 __mizzle (88) _________________ 3.6 __113 _ --- --- --- --- __ Walsall Wood Snow (78) ___ 4.9 __41 __ 84.0 __ 75 __Mr Maunder (123) ____________3.6 __114__ 90.0 __ 56 __Godber1 (120) ___________ 4.9 __42 __ --- --- --- --- __ damianslaw (132) ___________ 3.5 __115__ 59.0 __112__Norrance (90) ___________ 4.8 __43 __ 87.0 __ 66 __OddSpot (32) _______________ 3.4 __116__ 67.4 __106 __CheesepuffScott (20) 4.8 __44 __ 99.0 __ 34 __AWD (98) __________________ 3.4 __117__ 92.0 __ 49 __snowsummer (56) _________ 4.8 __45 _ 115.0 ___ 9 __Don (105) __________________ 3.4 __118__ 95.0 __ 40 __jonboy (68) _______________ 4.8 __46 _129.0 __ 10 __ legritter (117) ________________3.4 __119__ 85.0 __ 72 __Midlands Ice Age (85) ______ 4.8 __47 __ 80.0 __ 81 __Mulzy (122) _________________ 3.4 __120__ 86.0 __ 69 __Ali1977 (109) _____________ 4.8 __48 __ 93.0 __ 47 __davehsug (133) ______________ 3.4 __121__ 88.0 __ 61 __DAVID SNOW (118) ________ 4.7 __49 _115.0 ___ 6 __ Apple UK 123 (26) ____________3.3 __122__160.0 __ 76 __Katharine Basso (94) _________ 4.7 __50 __ 96.0 __ 37 __ red1cell (41) ________________ 3.2 __123__ 75.0 __ 94 __raul_sbd (50) _________ 4.7 __51 __ 74.7 __ 96 __joggs (46) __________________ 3.2 __124__ 97.0 __ 35 __ribster (58) ___________ 4.7 __52 _ 110.0 __ 18 __J10 (70) ____________________ 3.2 __125__ 52.0 __114 __Northern Lights (130) ____ 4.7 __53 __ 95.0 __ 41 __snowray (77) ________________ 3.2 __126 _ --- --- --- --- __ Jules.P (131) ___________ 4.7 __54 _ --- --- --- --- __ summer sun (102) _____________3.1 __127__ 94.0 __ 45 __Leon1 (27) ____________ 4.7 __55 __ 49.0 _ 116 __Bazza118 (108) _______________3.1 __128 _ --- --- --- --- __ blue_skies_do_I_see (67) __ 4.7 __56 _ --- --- --- --- __ dickie1965 (113) ______________ 3.1 __129__ 68.0 __105__Jeremy Shockey (81) ______ 4.7 __57 __ 88.0 __ 63 __Moorlander (136) _____________ 3.1 __130_115.0 ___ 8 __Lewis028 (92) ___________ 4.7 __58 _ --- --- --- --- __ Andrew R (L1-2) ______________ 3.0 __131__ 88.0 __ 60 __Polar Gael (16) _________ 6.9 __59 _ 111.0 __ 16 __ Dog Toffee (L3) _______________3.0 __132__ 69.0 __103__Big Dave (40) __________ 4.6 __60 __ 94.0 __ 44 __V for Very Cold ( 1 ) ____________3.0 __133__ 99.0 __ 33 __John888 (83) __________ 4.6 __61 __ 78.0 __ 83 __Bobd29 (14) __________________8.7 __134 _ 156.0 __65 __I Remember Atlantic252 ( 3 ) 4.6 __62 _ 104.2 __ 24 __coldest winter (22) _____________2.9 __135 _ 112.0__ 13 __Emmett Garland (17) _____ 4.6 __63 __ 86.0 __ 67 __Stargazer (33) ________________2.8 __136__ 88.0 __ 62 __day 10 (124) ____________ 7.0 __64 __ 77.0 __ 88 __ Stratty (36) __________________ 2.7 __137__ 70.0 __101__Steve Murr (10) _________ 4.6 __65 __ --- --- --- --- __ Summer Blizzard (39) _________ 2.7 __138__ 97.0 __ 36 __Robbie Garrett (97) ______ 7.0 __66 __ 67.0 __107 __ mark wells (99) ______________ 2.5 __139__ 77.0 __ 91 __Booferking (L1-3) ________ 4.6 __67 __ 88.3 __ 58 __ Feb1991Blizzard (129) _________2.1 __140__ 52.0 _113 __ Mr TOAD (59) ___________ 4.5 __68 _105.0 __ 23 __ JeffC (11) ____________________1.9 __141__ 79.0 __ 82 __SLEETY (19) ___________ 4.5 __69 _ --- --- --- --- __ Quicksilver1989 (L1-1) __________1.2 __142__ 77.0 __ 89 __Cymro (37) ____________ 4.5 __70 __ 77.0 __ 90 __weather-history (66) ___________12.0 _ 143 _ 200.0 _ 119 _ Lettucing Gutted (12) _____ 4.5 __71 _100.0 __ 30 __DR(S)NO (74) _______________ =================================================

Are you having problems with both CET and EWP or just one of them? I have had some problems too, thinking the reason is some sort of internal issue with NW settings regarding various generations of excel, as J10 says, one workaround is to download and rename the file. I can always let you or others know your scores if desired.

First look at the EWP -- only 4 mm so far, looks like about 30 mm on GFS ten-day projection and would estimate 20-30 more from maps on GFS day 11-16, so that would bring us to 54-64 mm by the 21st. CET will run quite mild, estimate near 7 by end of this coming week and maps from then on look to be around 5-6 much of the time in a highly modified cooler maritime flow. By end of run likely to be back around 6.0 if guidance is solid.

Also, a report on how the three robotic forecasters did ... first, in the CET ... Consensus and 1989-2018 both had 4.9 as their forecast. That had an error of -0.9 C and was ranked 38th to 42nd for 71.1-73.9 points. The 1981-2010 normal had 4.6, error of -1.2 C. Counting equal errors at 7.0, this was ranked 60th to 67th for 53.5-58.5 points. In the EWP, consensus (90 mm) did worse than the two normals, all three finished from about one third of the way down the table for the normals, to almost the halfway point for consensus. In both cases, about one third of the forecasts beat all three of the robots, although the number of people who beat them in both contests was closer to 20%.

The EWP has been recorded now as 121.6 mm. This slightly alters the previous report on our top ten, with these being the top 15 scores ... FORECASTER ___________ fcst __ err __ Points 'cold is best' _____________ 122 __ +0.4 __10.00 Kentspur ________________121 __--0.6 ___9.92 __ best combined ranks (7th CET, 2nd EWP for 9) Radiating Dendrite ________123 __+1.4 ___ 9.83 Relativistic ______________ 120 __--1.6 ___ 9.75 Thundery Wintry Showers __117.4 _--4.2 ___ 9.66 AppleUK123 _____________115 __--6.6 ___ 9.58 Pinball Wizard ____________115 __--6.6 ___ 9.53 __ 2nd best combined (5th, 7th = 12) Lewis028 ________________115 __--6.6 ___ 9.48 Don ____________________115 __--6.6 ___ 9.43 legritter _________________ 129 __ +7.4 ___9.24 DeanE __________________ 114 __ --7.6 ___9.15 brmbrmcar _______________113 __ --8.6 ___9.07 Emmett Garland __________ 112 __ --9.6 ___ 8.98 Reef ___________________ 112 __ --9.6 ___ 8.93 Stationary Front __________ 111.1 _ --10.5 __8.81 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The full scoring can be seen here: EWP201920DEC.xlsx

Since the mid-1990s therre has been a tendency for record warm months to appear roughly every five years: Nov 1994, Aug 1995 Oct 2001 July and Sep 2006 April 2011 Dec 2015 The intervals are 6 yr 2 mo, 4 yr 9 (and 11) mo, 4 yr 7 mo, 4 yr 8 mo and this one would be 4 yr 1 mo. Before the mid 1990s, I think the pulse of very warm months was a bit longer going back 1990, 1983, 1976. (1969), 1957 with warmest April, 1949, 1938, 1934, 1921 then 1916. The pulse average was closer to seven years before 1990. 4.5 to 5.0 years would be roughly two QBO cycles so one might look in between those pulses for one or in some cases two secondary peaks. Recently I would say perhaps July 2013 and March 2017.

I updated the first post with the information adjusted for December after that finished 5.8 in 2019. Basically, December is quite likely to finish with a 5.0 mean, as long as Dec 2020 is in the range 4.3 to 7.2. It is worth pointing out that my calculations will not exactly match the Met Office numbers, as they appear to be calculating normals (as they should) from the mean maximum and mean minimum values for the thirty years. This should only introduce a tiny variability factor, since I am taking the mean of monthly means (which are themselves averages of max and min). I noticed that if my calculations are very close to a rounding point, for example with May 1961-1990, I got 11.2 using my method and they got 11.1, but I was rounding up from something like 11.151, probably they had something like 11.149.

I worked that out as follows ... 1st to 19th ran mild as you were saying ... 5.5, 4.5, 4.1, 4.2, 4.4, 4.3, 4.7, 5.6, 5.1, 4.9, 5.0, 5.5. 5.3, 4.5, 4.8, 4.8, 4.3 , 4.8, 4.3 20th to 31st considerably colder for a while, a rebound to mild, and cold at the end ... 3.5, 3.5, 3.6, 3.8, 4.6, 5.1, 5.2, 5.0, 4.8, 4.8, 3.6, 3.8 ____________________________ Really this trend can be seen going back as far as at least 2000. The daily means for January for 2000 to 2019 are as follows (with the same groupings as above, 19 and 12) 5.1, 4.6, 4.2, 4.1, 4.2, 4.5, 4.6, 5.2, 4.7, 4.9, 5.0, 5.3, 5.2, 4.8, 5.0, 4.8, 4.4, 4.2, 4.7 4.4, 4.4, 4.1, 4.2, 4.5, 4.7, 4.9, 5.0, 4.7, 4.8, 4.2, 4.5 So that longer period, while not as strong a cooling trend after about the 19th, shows the same trends you mentioned. Final note, if I took the years 2007 to 2019 and excluded 2009, 2010 and 2011, then the means look like this: 6.8 (!), 5.6, 5.3, 5.6, 5.7, 5.7, 6.5, 7.0 (!), 6.4, 6.1, 5.5, 5.8, 5.2, 4.4, 4.7, 4.1, 3.8, 4.1, 4.4 3.8, 3.8, 3.7, 3.8, 4.9, 5.3, 5.5, 5.7, 5.4, 5.5, 4.3, 4.4 The means of those years from 1st to 12th would have the running mean at 6.0 C on the 12th. The end of month average for the years in the last sample would be 5.1 C.

As expected the provisional EWP ended up being 121 mm. I will work on the excel file for scoring but will release that after the 5th when a more precise value is known (then perhaps no tied scores if they come up with any decimal ending except 0 or 5).

The later entries have been edited into the table on page four, and the consensus values have drifted up for CET (5.35 C) and down for EWP (80.15 mm). You can continue to enter until end of today (3rd of January).

Thanks ... a few of the many new entrants who joined the December contest may not have realized that this is part of an ongoing monthly competition. If you haven't already seen the thread or entered Jan 2020, have a look in the topics list. You can still enter up to the end of Friday 3rd.

1981-2010 CET Daily averages for January, with daily extremes and running CET extremes (1772-2019) ... the extremes are 1772-2019 ...[] below are for 1981-2010 []... these are again 1772-2019 DATE __ MAX (year) ____ MIN (year) ___ CET mean, cum __ extremes of running CET 01-date 01 Jan ... 10.8 (1851) ... ... -5.9 (1820) ... ... 4.5 ... ... 4.5 ..... ..... 10.8 (1851) ... -5.9 (1820) 02 Jan ... 10.4 (1948) ... ... -6.1 (1786) ... ... 4.6 ... ... 4.5 ..... ..... 10.1 (1851) ... -5.9 (1786) 03 Jan ... 11.6 (1932) ... ... -7.7 (1795) ... ... 4.2 ... ... 4.4 ..... ....... 9.7 (1917) ... -6.5 (1786) 04 Jan ... 10.5 (1948) ... ... -9.3 (1867) ... ... 4.2 ... ... 4.4 ..... ....... 9.7 (1916) ... -6.0 (1795) 05 Jan ... 11.4 (1957) ... ... -6.5 (1789) ... ... 4.6 ... ... 4.4 ..... ....... 9.3 (1916) ... -5.3 (1795) 06 Jan ... 10.3 (1898) ... ... -6.9 (1894) ... ... 4.6 ... ... 4.5 .... ....... 9.2 (1916) ... -4.6 (1795) 07 Jan ... 10.3 (1890) ... ... -7.7 (1841) ... ... 3.4 ... ... 4.3 ..... ....... 9.2 (1916) ... -3.9 (1795) 08 Jan ..... 9.9 (1858) ... ... -9.2 (1841) ... ... 4.0 ... ... 4.3 ..... ....... 8.8 (1992) ... -3.4 (1864) 09 Jan ... 10.7 (1998) ... ... -5.0 (1841) ... ... 4.3 ... ... 4.3 ..... ....... 8.4 (1916) ... -2.8 (1795, 1864) 10 Jan ... 11.1 (1921) ... ... -6.7 (1814) ... ... 4.5 ... ... 4.3 ..... ....... 8.3 (1916) ... -3.0 (1814) 11 Jan ... 10.1 (1990) ... ... -5.5 (1838) ... ... 4.4 ... ... 4.3 ..... ....... 8.3 (1916) ... -3.2 (1814) 12 Jan ..... 9.9 (1976, 2007) .. -7.7 (1987) ....4.4 ... ... 4.3 ..... ....... 8.2 (2007) ... -3.4 (1814) 13 Jan ... 10.0 (1796, 1873) .. -6.6 (1987) ....4.6 ... ... 4.3 ..... ....... 8.4 (2007) ... -3.4 (1814) 14 Jan ... 10.2 (2011) ... ... -7.6 (1982) ... ... 4.4 ... ... 4.4 ..... ....... 8.2 (2007) ... -3.6 (1814) 15 Jan ... 10.3 (1804) ... ... -8.5 (1820) ... ... 4.6 ... ... 4.4 ..... ....... 8.1 (2007) ... -3.7 (1814) 16 Jan ... 10.8 (1990) ... ... -7.7 (1881) ... ... 4.8 ... ... 4.4 ..... ....... 8.1 (2007) ... -3.7 (1814) 17 Jan ... 10.2 (1908) ... ... -6.2 (1881) ... ... 4.6 ... ... 4.4 ..... ....... 8.2 (2007) ... -3.7 (1814) 18 Jan ... 10.0 (1828) ... ... -6.1 (1891) ... ... 4.5 ... ... 4.4 ..... ....... 8.2 (2007) ... -3.6 (1814) 19 Jan ... 11.1 (1930) ... ... -8.9 (1823) ... ... 5.1 ... ... 4.4 ..... ....... 8.3 (2007) ... -3.5 (1814) 20 Jan ... 11.2 (2008) ... ...-11.9 (1838) ... ... 5.1 ... ... 4.5 ..... ....... 8.3 (2007) ... -3.4 (1814) 21 Jan ... 10.8 (1796, 1898)..-8.1 (1881) ... ...5.1 ... ... 4.5 ..... ..... 8.2 (2007) ... -3.5 (1814) 22 Jan ... 10.3 (1878) ... ... -6.4 (1881) ... ... 4.4 ... ... 4.5 ..... ....... 8.0 (2007) ... -3.6 (1814) 23 Jan ... 11.6 (1834) ... ... -8.4 (1963) ... ... 4.4 ... ... 4.5 ..... ....... 7.7 (1976, 2007) ... -3.6 (1814) 24 Jan ... 10.6 (1782) ... ... -8.2 (1963) ... ... 4.4 ... ... 4.5 ..... ....... 7.6 (1916) ... -3.6 (1814) 25 Jan ... 11.6 (2016) ... ... -8.9 (1795) ... ... 4.1 ... ... 4.5 ..... ....... 7.5 (1796, 1916) .-3.6 (1795, 1814) 26 Jan ... 10.0 (1834) ... ... -7.6 (1945) ... ... 4.1 ... ... 4.5 ..... ....... 7.6 (1916) ... -3.6 (1795) 27 Jan ... 10.5 (2016) ... ... -6.5 (1776) ... ... 4.2 ... ... 4.4 ..... ....... 7.6 (1916) ... -3.3 (1814) 28 Jan ..... 9.8 (1944) ... ... -6.3 (1776) ... ... 4.3 ... ... 4.4 ..... ....... 7.6 (1916) ... -3.2 (1814) 29 Jan ... 10.4 (1854) ... ... -6.8 (1776) ... ... 4.6 ... ... 4.4 ..... ....... 7.6 (1916) ... -3.1 (1795, 1814) 30 Jan ... 10.2 (2000) ... ... -7.5 (1776) ... ... 4.2 ... ... 4.4 ..... ....... 7.6 (1916) ... -3.1 (1795) 31 Jan ... 10.9 (1868) ... ... -7.2 (1776) ... ... 4.5 ... ... 4.4 ..... ....... 7.5 (1916) ... -3.1 (1795) _____________________________________________________________________________ As a measure of how cold Jan 1963 was, the running mean to 24th, 25th and 26th was -2.7 C. 1834 almost caught the leaders by 28th at 7.5 C, finished on 7.1. ... 1814 fell back only to -2.9 C.

According to the table of entries, this would be the top ten in CET scoring for December. List includes their EWP forecasts if they made one. _ (number in brackets is order of entry ... with equal errors 2nd to 10th, order of entry determines your ranking) 01 __ 5.8 __ 143.0 __ Timmytour ( 4 ) 02 __ 5.9 ___ 85.0 __ cheeky_monkey ( 5 ) 03 __ 5.9 __ 111.1 __ Stationary Front ( 7 ) 04 __ 5.7 ___ 90.0 __ swfc (30) 05 __ 5.7 __ 115.0 __ Pinball Wizard (38) 06 __ 5.9 __ 101.0 __ selliso (48) 07 __ 5.7 __ 121.0 __ Kentspur (54) 08 __ 5.9 __ --- --- __ dancerwithwings (57) 09 __ 5.7 ___ 71.4 __ sawan (96) 10 __ 5.9 __ --- --- __ Fozfoster (100) ______________________________________________________ Best combined forecast appears to be Kentspur (7th, 1st = 8 rank points) Next would be Pinball Wizard (5th, 6th = 11 rank points)

5.8 confirmed. (disappointed that they rejected 5.9, thought maybe we had it finally)

EWP was reported to be 121 mm after 30 days. I can't see it adding anything for the 31st, but will check that out tomorrow morning and confirm the following top five (to be further adjusted when they report a more detailed final version on the 5th). Kentspur __ 121 mm (within 0.5) 'cold is best' __ 122 mm (0.5-1.5 err) Relativistic __ 120 mm (tied 0.5-1.5 err) Radiating Dendrite __ 123 mm (1.5-2.5 err) Thundery Wintry Showers __ 117.4 mm (3.1-4.1 err) The error estimates assume that the actual value is between 120.5 and 121.5 mm. But it may turn out to be slightly outside that range, changing the final leaderboard. The top ten are rounded out by the four who went for 115 mm and legritter at 129 mm.

Table of entries was posted a few minutes before the midnight deadline, I was fearful of losing work in progress as my power has been flickering this afternoon (here) after a heavy snowfall. You can only imagine. Anyway, the consensus values are 5.25 C and 82.5 mm, so a relatively mild and dry January is the overall impression. You can of course continue to enter until the end of the 3rd of January. Later entries will be edited into the table as received.

... five late entries (1 day) have been added in ... also five that are two days late ... watch for further edits ... Table of entries -- CET and EWP forecasts for January 2020 Happy New Year ... the entries are shown with the order of entry in brackets. If anyone changes a CET forecast but maintains their earlier EWP, then two orders of entry are shown, the second applies to the earlier EWP entry. It will be a decimal because the original value went to the next CET forecast submitted. Also, at the bottom of the table of entries, the EWP entries are listed in rank order since this primary table uses CET values for its order. Late entries (one day) have the order L1-1 to L1-5. Late entries (two days) have the order L2-1 to L2-5. CET __ EWP __ FORECASTER (entry) __________ CET __ EWP __ FORECASTER (entry) 9.5 __ 200.0 __ Lettucing Gutted (4) _____________ 5.2 __ 112.0 __ Weather26 (6) 8.1 __ ------ __ shillitocet (28) ___________________5.2 __ ------ __ Mark Bayley (42) 7.8 __ ------ __ coldest winter (26) _______________ 5.2 ___ 54.0 __ snowray (54) 7.7 __ 250.0 __ igloo (24) ______________________5.2 __ ------ __ fozfoster (74) 7.4 ___ 66.9 __ Roger J Smith (18) ______________ 5.1 __ 110.0 __ Mapantz (12) 7.4 ___ 60.0 __ syed2878 (19) __________________5.1 __ ------ __ Summer Sun (40) 7.1 ___ ------ __ Andrew R (L1-4) ________________ 6.9 ___ 64.0 __ SLEETY (10) ___________________5.1 ___ 98.0 __ Joneseye (61) 6.6 ___ 99.0 __ Dog Toffee (22) _________________5.0 ___ 57.0 __ Mr Maunder (38) 6.5 ___ 65.0 __ Norrance (63) __________________4.9 __ 137.7 __ Let It Snow! (8) 6.3 ___ 24.0 __ ChrisBell-nottheWxman (35) ______ 4.9 ___ 65.0 __ Carl46Wrexham (52) 6.3 __ 102.0 __ I Remember Atlantic 252 (2) ______ 4.8 ___ 59.4 __ lottiekent (29) 6.2 ___ 80.0 __ mb018538 (70) ________________ 4.8 __ 115.0 __ Earthshine (47) 6.1 ___ 54.0 __ BLAST FROM THE PAST (L2-1) ___ 6.0 ___ 99.0 __ virtualsphere (36) _______________4.8 ___ 70.0 __ Godber 1 (51) 6.0 ___ 84.0 __ Reef (66) _____________________ 4.7 ___ 55.2 __ CheesepuffScott (17, 1.5) 6.0 ___ 65.0 __ Booferking (L2-4) _______________ 5.9 ___ 60.0 __ The PIT(16) ___________________ 4.7 __ ------ __ summer blizzard (37) 5.9 ___ 44.0 __ Feb91Blizzard (56) ______________4.7 __ 101.0 __ Relativistic (41) 5.8 __ 130.0 __ stewfox (15) ___________________ 4.7 ___ 82.5 __ Robbie Garrett (43) 5.8 __ ------ __ Froze were the Days (55) __________4.7 __ ------ __ damianslaw (53) 5.8 __ 100.0 __ Don (60) ______________________ 4.7 ___ 80.3 __ Midlands Ice Age (67) 5.8 __ ------ __ Quicksilver1989 (73) ______________4.7 __ 100.0 __ J10 (72) 5.8 ___ 69.0 __ Ultima Thule (L1-5) ______________ 4.7 ___ 95.7 __ average 1990-2019 5.7 __ 141.3 __ Polar Gael (7) __________________4.6 ___ 78.0 __ Bobd29 (1) 5.7 __ ------ __ Dancerwithwings (31) _____________4.6 ___ 88.0 __ nn2013 (27) 5.7 __ ------ __ Man with Beard (48) ______________4.6 ___ 37.0 __ seaside60 (57) 5.7 ___ 94.0 __ Stargazer (L1-1) ________________ 4.6 ___ 90.0 __ freeze (L1-2) 5.6 ___ 76.0 __ SteveB (30) ____________________4.5 ___ 85.0 __ Twilight (5) 5.6 ___65.2__Thundery Wintry Showers (44, 29.5) __4.5 ___ 85.0 __ Mr TOAD (25) 5.6 ___ 65.0 __ weather-history (50) _____________ 4.4 ___ 83.0 __ Radiating Dendrite (20) 5.6 __ ------ __ Beet (58) _______________________4.4 __ 93.0 __ average 1981-2010 5.6 ___ 68.0 __ Kentspur (L2-2) __________________ 5.6 ___ 59.0 __ February1978 (L2-5) ______________ 5.5 __ 105.0 __ timmytour (14) ___________________4.3 __ ------ __ Kentish Man (64) 5.5 ___ 95.0 __ General Cluster (21) ______________ 4.2 __ 105.0 __ JeffC (9) 5.5 __ 100.5 __ DR(S)NO (23) ___________________ 4.2 __ ------ __ badgers01 (71) 5.5 ___ 66.0 __ Stationary Front (45) ______________ 4.1 __ ------ __ Walsall Wood Snow (33) 5.5 __ ------ __ Duncan McAlister (65) ______________4.1 ___ 41.0 __ Cymro (39) 5.5 ___ 71.0 __ Pinball Wizard (L2-3) ______________ 5.4 __ 117.0 __ brmbrmcar (34) ___________________4.0 ___ 87.0 __ Emmett Garland (62) 5.4 ___ 60.0 __ Mulzy (59) _______________________3.9 __ 124.2 __ Kirkcaldy Weather (3) 5.3 ___ 81.0 __ BornFromTheVoid (46) _____________3.9 ___ 67.0 __ daniel* (49) 5.3 __ ------ __ Sundog (68) ______________________ 3.7 __ ------ __ prolongedSnowLover (11) 5.3 ___ 66.0 __ davehsug (69) ____________________ 3.7 ___ 45.0 __ DAVID SNOW (32) 5.35 ___ 80.15 __ consensus ____________________ 3.1 ___ 75.0 __ jonboy (L1-3) ____________________________________________ --0.5 __ ------ __ Timbo (13) 74 on-time entries, and five that were one day late, five that are two days late ... __ 84 total entries, median value (consensus) is 5.4 C ============================================================================= EWP entries in order 120.1-200 _ igloo 250 __ LG 200 __ PG 141.3 __ LIS 137.7 __ stew 130 __ KW 124.2 108.1-120 _ brm 117 __ Earth 115 __ wx26 112 __ Map 110 100.1-108 _ JeffC, tim 105 __ IRA252 102 __ Rel 101 __ DR(S)NO 100.5 90.1-100 _ Don, J10 100 __ DogT, virt 99 __ Jones 98 __ 1990-2019 95.7 __ GC 95 __ star 94 __ 1981-2010 93.0 80.1- 90 _ fre 90 __ nn 88 __EG 87 __ Twi, MrT 85 __ Reef 84 __ Rad 83 __ RG 82.5 __ BFTV 81 __ MIA 80.3 68.1-80 _ mb 80 __ Bobd 78 __ SteveB 76 __ jon 75 __ PWiz 71 __ Godb 70 __ UT 69 60.1-68 _ Kent 68 __ dan* 67 __ RJS 66.9 __ SF, daveh 66 __ TWS 65.2 __ w-h, Carl, Norr, Boof 65 __ SLE 64 50.1-60 _ PIT, syed, Mul 60 __ lott 59.4 __ Feb78 59 __ MrM 57 __ CPS 55.2 __ snow, BFTP 54 00.1-50 _ DS 45 __ Feb91 44 __ cymro 41 __ sea 37 __ ChrisB 24 _______________________ 55 entries (on time) plus four that were one day late, and another five that are two days late ... 64 total. median = consensus avg 32nd, 33rd ranked 80.15 mm.

The EWP has reached 120 mm but will likely not add very much from light rain expected around the night of 30th-31st in the southwest, so 120 or 121 is the likely outcome. (we get a preliminary estimate on the 2nd, and a final table version on the 5th).