Roger J Smith

EWP jumped to 25 mm after a wet Friday 19th, looks like 2-3 mm on average yesterday so 27-28 into today, GFS was showing 10-15 mm more to end of month. Still very plausible to finish around 50 mm. CET looked like it might rocket up to about 26th then fall back slightly after that. A finish between 17.6 and 18.2 looks most likely.

LARGEST CHANGES IN DAILY CET (from day to day) I ran a program on the daily CET values to find out the largest changes from one day to the next, over the period 1772-present. There were three days that warmed by more than 10 C deg, they were: Feb 7, 1830 ... 11.2 warmer (4.8 from -6.4) Jan 4, 1836 ... 10.7 warmer (8.2 from -2.5) Jan 21, 1838 ... 10.5 warmer (-1.4 from coldest day on record -11.9) These cover the largest increases for Jan and Feb. The rest of the monthly records are as follows: Mar. 12, 1805 ... 8.2 warmer (11.5 from 3.3) Apr. 15, 1868 ... 7.4 warmer (12.9 from 5.5) May 17, 1854 ... 7.1 warmer (13.1 from 6.0) June 1, 1869 ... 6.9 warmer (14.4 from 7.5) July 9, 1903 ... 6.9 warmer (20.2 from 13.3) Aug. 27, 1864 ... 6.2 warmer (15.0 from 8.8 ) Sep. 4, 1869 ... 7.4 warmer (18.5 from 11.1) Oct. 21, 1833 ... 7.0 warmer (12.9 from 5.9) Nov. 26, 1797 ... 9.6 warmer (9.8 from 0.2) Dec. 8, 1847 ... 8.9 warmer (10.7 from 1.8 ) ------------------- Meanwhile, the largest day to day falls in CET daily means were all less than 10 degrees, the largest was 9.9 degrees in November 1836. Monthly records are ... Jan. 6, 1982 ... 8.5 (-0.1 from 8.4) Feb. 26, 1780 ... 8.0 (-2.4 from 5.6) Mar. 5, 1821 ... 8.5 (0.7 from 9.2) Mar. 28, 1777 ... 8.5 (6.3 from 14.8 ) Apr. 16, 1779 ... 8.5 (7.3 from 15.8 ) May 11, 1773 ... 9.1 (4.1 from 13.2) June 7, 1942 ... 8.3 (12.8 from 21.1) Jul. 23, 1868 ... 8.5 (14.7 from 23.2) Aug. 29, 1838 ... 7.2 (11.5 from 18.7) Sep. 16, 1819 ... 8.6 (8.9 from 17.5) Oct. 16, 1955 ... 9.3 (3.7 from 13.0) Nov. 25, 1836 ... 9.9 (0.4 from 10.3) Dec. 14, 1994 ... 8.9 (2.4 from 11.3) ---------------------------------------------------- Note that the majority of these monthly records were set before 1870 and only a few have occurred recently, and in the lifetime of most people reading this, no day has warmed more than 7 degrees (by mean CET), the largest increase since 1980 is 5.8 deg from 30 Nov. 1985, while there was a 6.4 deg rise on 6 Jan 1971. March 17, 2018 (0.7) was 8.2 colder than March 16 (8.9) and came within 0.3 of breaking that month's largest drop set in 1777. Oct 14, 2018 (11.1) was 7.4 colder than Oct 13 (record 18.5), but monthly record was 9.3 degrees from 1955.

Longest Cold Spells (consecutive days with means 0.0 or lower) NOTE -- Data from 1772 to present, there were probably very long cold spells in years such as 1684, 1709 and 1740 but we don't have the daily details for those. This table includes all cases with 10 or more such days. Note: This table was constructed using CET legacy values. A check has been made against CET v2.0 and the table is now rank ordered to v2.0 values. Any differences are now noted in italics. The absence of any notes implies that the cold spell in question is still valid for both v2.0 and legacy data. One spell was extended by five days (Dec 1890) when 27th changed from +0.6 to -0.1. And another spell had a day removed (1881) as a value of -1.6 changed to +0.1 at the previous end of the spell. Also, the coldest and average values in v2.0 are now shown in the table, numbers in brackets are now the legacy values where different (absence of such numbers implies they are identical). Since the change to v2.0 only includes years 1853 to present, any cold spells 1772-1852 will have no editing required. DAYS ___ Duration of Days 0.0 or lower ______________Coldest _____ Average v2.0 leg _______________________________________________v2.0 (leg) ___ v2.0 (leg)_____ 32 ... ... 27 Dec 1813 - 27 Jan 1814 .............................. -- 6.7 ...... ...... -- 3.2 26 ... ... 7 Jan - 1 Feb 1776 ............................................ -- 7.5 ...... ...... -- 3.0 23 (18) . 9 -31 Dec 1890 (9-26 Dec in CET leg) ............. --5.7 (--6.8) .... --1.9 (-2.1)^ 22 ... ... 5 - 26 Feb 1947 ................................................. --6.6 (-- 6.7) ..-- 2.5 **** 20 ... ... 7 - 26 Jan 1963 ................................................... --8.4 ...... ...... -- 3.6 *** 19 (20) . 8 -26 Jan 1881 (8-27 Jan in CET leg) ............... -- 8.0 (-8.1) ..... --4.7 (-- 4.8)^ 18 ... ... 6 - 23 Feb 1855 ..................................................--7.2 (-- 7.5) ... -- 3.7 18 ... ... 9 - 26 Jan 1823 .................................................. -- 8.9 ...... ...... -- 3.0 17 ... ... 10 - 26 Jan 1795 ................................................ -- 8.9 ...... ...... -- 4.0 15 ... ... 21 Dec 1870 - 4 Jan 1871 ................................. -- 6.7 (--6.9) .. -- 3.5 (-3.6) 15... ... 10-24 Jan 1940 ................................................... -- 7.0 (--7.1) ... --3.4 (-- 3.3) 15 ... ... 24 Dec 1892 - 7 Jan 1893 ................................. --4.7 (-- 5.0) ... --3.2 (-- 3.3) 15 ... ... 18 Jan - 1 Feb 1784 ........................................... -- 3.7 ...... ...... -- 2.1 14 ... ... 8 - 21 Jan 1838 ................................................. -- 11.9 ...... ...... -- 5.1 14 ... ... 5-18 Feb 1895 ................................................... -- 8.5 (--8.3) .. -- 4.8** 14 ... ... 3-16 Jan 1820 ..................................................... -- 8.5 ...... ...... -- 3.6 14 ... ... 21 Jan - 3 Feb 1780 ........................................... -- 3.6 ...... ...... -- 1.0 13 ... ... 26 Jan - 7 Feb 1954 ........................................... --4.9 (-- 5.0) ... -- 2.5 13 ... ... 17 - 29 Dec 1860 ............................................... --4.0 (-- 3.7) ... --2.3 (-- 2.1) ^^ 13 ... ... 6 - 18 Feb 1986 .................................................. --4.5 (-- 4.6) ... --1.4 (-- 1.6) ^^ 13 ... ... 14 - 26 Feb 1956 ................................................ --3.2 ...... ...... -- 1.6 13 ... ... 29 Dec - 10 Jan 1811 ......................................... -- 3.6 ...... ...... -- 1.5 12 ...... 6-17 Jan 1987 ...................................................... -- 7.7 ..... ....... -- 2.8 12 ... ... 23 Dec 1962 - 3 Jan 1963 ................................. -- 3.6 ...... ...... -- 2.2 *** 12 ... ... 18 - 29 Jan 1880 ................................................. --4.4 (-- 4.3) .. -- 2.0 (--2.1) 12 ... ... 3 - 14 Feb 1991 .................................................. --4.6 (-- 4.7) .. --1.8 (-- 1.9) 12 ... ... 25 Dec 1853 - 5 Jan 1854 .................................. --4.9 (-- 5.0) .. -- 1.8 12 ... ... 30 Nov - 11 Dec 1796 ....................................... -- 4.7 ...... ...... -- 1.8 12 ...... 17 - 28 Feb 1955 ................................................. -- 3.3 ...... ...... -- 1.7 11 ...... 17 - 27 Dec 2010 ................................................. -- 7.0 ...... ...... -- 3.9 11 ...... 11 - 21 Jan 1867 ................................................... --4.9 (-- 5.0) .. --2.8 (-- 2.9) 11 ... ... 1 - 11 Feb 1917 ................................................... --6.2 (-- 7.2) .. -- 2.8 * 11 ... ... 9 - 19 Feb 1985 ................................................... --4.0 (-- 4.1) .. --2.6 (-- 2.7) 11 ... ... 2-12 Jan 1879 ...................................................... --5.7 (-- 4.8) .. --2.5 (-- 2.3) 11 ... ... 6 - 16 Jan 1850 .................................................... -- 2.8 ...... ...... -- 1.4 11 ... ... 25 Dec 1820 - 4 Jan 1821 ................................... -- 3.3 ...... ...... -- 1.3 11 ... ... 11 - 21 Feb 1853 .................................................. --3.1 (-- 3.2) .. -- 1.2 11 ... ... 9 - 19 Feb 1940 .................................................... --2.6 (-- 2.5) .. -- 1.1 10 ...... 6-15 Jan 1982 ........................................................ --7.5 (-- 7.6) .. -- 4.0 10 ... ... 8 - 17 Jan 1826 .....................................................-- 6.9 ..... ...... -- 3.7 10 ... ... 20 - 29 Jan 1945 .................................................. --7.5 (-- 7.6) .. -- 3.5 10 ... ... 5 - 14 Dec 1844 ................................................... -- 5.5 ...... ...... -- 2.7 10 ... ... 8 - 17 Dec 1878 ....................................................--5.5 (-- 5.3) .. --2.8 (-- 2.9) 10 ... ... 16 - 25 Jan 1829 ................................................... -- 4.8 ...... ...... -- 2.8 10 ... ... 14 - 23 Jan 1809 ................................................... -- 5.1 ...... ...... -- 2.4 10 ... ... 24 Jan-2 Feb 1947 ................................................. -6.4 ...... ...... -2.1 **** 10 ... ... 8-17 Dec 2022 ........................................................ -4.4 ...... ...... -1.9 10 ... ... 24 Dec 1836 - 2 Jan 1837 .................................... -- 3.3 ...... ...... -- 1.3 10 ... ... 23 Dec 1837 - 1 Jan 1838 ..................................... -- 2.7 ...... ...... -- 1.4 10 ... ... 21 - 30 Jan 1917 ..................................................... --2.0 (-- 1.8) .. -- 1.2 (--1.1) * __________________________________________________ ^ The 1890 spell gained five days in v2.0 when 27th was adjusted down from +0.6 to -0.2 allowing 28th-31st to be added. This was despite a move in the other direction on 24th from -0.1 (legacy) to -0.0 (v2.0). The averages shown are for the two different lengths of cold spell in each data base. ^ The 1881 spell lost one day in v2.0. The averages shown are for the two different lengths of cold spells, if the lost day were included (0.1 in v2.0 on 27th) the averages would read --4.5 (--4.8). ^^ After three days just above freezing, another nine days 2-10 Jan 1861 were subzero. The mean for 25 days from 17 Dec to 10 Jan was -1.8, and it stayed quite cold to 18 Jan, mean to there for 33 days was -1.6. ^^ The 1986 cold spell could be extended to 26 days if 0.2 on 19th Feb, 0.4 on 28th and 0.2 on 2nd March are included, the mean for this longer interval is -1.3 C. * Except for +0.2 (+0.3 leg) on 31 Jan 1917, a 22 day spell avg --1.8 C lasting 21 Jan to 11 Feb. ** A longer spell of 24 days with +0.3 (was +0.4 legacy) as warmest, 26 Jan - 18 Feb 1895, avg --3.7 C. *** Although there were only two spells in winter 1962-63 that qualified for this list, note that the period of 35 days that includes the two, 23 Dec to 26 Jan, averaged -2.7 C and 70 days to 2 March averaged -- 1.5 C. All of this remained valid in v2.0 as changes to 1963 data were generally nil for most days. **** The 45-day period 23 Jan to 8 Mar 1947 averaged --1.9 C. A second cold spell of 10 days 24 Jan to 2 Feb was separated from this longer spell by two days at 0.7 (v2.0 and legacy). The overall mean for 24 Jan to 26 Feb, a 34-day interval with the two-day interruption, was -2.2 C. >> RECENT NEAR MISSES & EXPANSION OF 1986 FROM LIST << 25 Nov to 4 Dec 2010 averaged -- 1.7 C and 25 Nov to 8 Dec averaged -- 1.7 C but these periods failed by a slight margin to make the list (25 Nov was +0.2 (+0.3 leg) and 5 Dec was +0.3 (+0.4 leg)). The 26-day period from 6 Feb to 3 Mar 1986 averaged -- 1.3 C. 1 to 10 Jan 2010 averaged --1.9 C but failed to make the list because 2 Jan was +0.3 C. 8-26 Dec 1981 averaged -- 2.3 C. ___________ note: when this was first posted, we did not have daily data for Dec 1786. It turns out that there was almost a qualifying spell in Dec 1786, nine days from 18th to 26th averaged -2.0 and -5.5 on 26th was coldest. The closest reading at either end was +0.9 on 17th. It's possible that I may add 8-9 day spells in the future.

Brutal humidity in southeast SD with dew points above 25 C, temps near 32 C. Front has set up in northeast SD and southern MN. Looks like another late developer with overnight thunderstorms pushing slowly south. Could be some prolific rainfalls given this high moisture content and slow forward motion.

August CET averages and extremes (the table includes all years 1981 to 2018, colour codes show warmest, middle and coolest thirds, and all of these values are mean daily CET values, the average of daily max and min) 24.9 ... warmest August day (1st, 1995) 19.2 ... warmest August, 1995 18.9 ... second warmest August, 1997 18.7 ... third warmest August, 1975 18.6 ... fourth warmest August, 1947 18.3 ... fifth warmest Augusts (tied 1747 and 2003) 18.2 ... seventh warmest August, 1911 18.1 ... eighth warmest August, 1955 18.0 ... ninth warmest August, 1990 17.8 ... tied 10th warmest 1736, 1899 17.6 ... tied 12th warmest (with 1976 and earlier years) 1984, 2004 17.3 ... 1983 17.1 ... 1991 17.0 ... 2002, 2016 16.9 ... 2013 16.8 ... 2001 16.6 ... 1989, 2000, 2009, 2012, 2018 16.5 ... average of 1989 to 2018 and also 1991 to 2018 (emerging 1991 to 2020), 1996 16.4 ... average of 1981-2010 and 1986-2015 and 2001-2018 16.2 ... average of 1971-2000, 1981, 2005, 2008 16.1 ... 1999, 2006 16.0 ... 1994 15.9 ... 1998, 2015 15.8 ... average of 1961-1990, and 1701-1800, and 1901-2000 15.7 ... 1982 15.6 ... average of 1659-2018 (15.64), and 1987, 2017 15.4 ... average of 1801-1900, and 2007, 2011 15.3 ... 1992, 2010 15.2 ... 1988 15.1 ... average of 1659-1700 14.9 ... 2014 14.6 ... 1985, 1993 13.7 ... coldest August since 1956 (1986) -- tied 16th coldest 13.6 ... tied 10th coldest (six years ... 1817, 1848, 1860, 1885, 1920, 1922) 13.5 ... coldest August since 1912 (1956) -- tied 5th coldest with 1674, 1683, 1844, 1845 13.3 ... fourth coldest August (1725) 13.0 ... second coldest Augusts (tie) (1694,1695) 12.9 ... coldest August, 1912 9.5 ... coldest day to 16th (16th, 1888) ... earliest sub-10 value in August 8.8 ... coldest August day (26th, 1864) ... although it was 7.1 C on 1 Sept of 1816 _________________________________________________________ Enter your CET forecasts by end of the day Wednesday, 31st July, or with increasing late penalties, up to end of Saturday, 3rd of August. ======================================================================================= EWP forecasts 192.9 mm __ wettest August 1766 to 2018 (1912) -- (192.1 mm in 1799 a close second) 156.5 mm __ wettest August 1981 to 2017 (2004) 78.8 mm ___ average for 1989-2018 75.6 mm ___ average for 1981-2010 14.4 mm ___ second driest August (1947) _ 9.1 mm ___ driest August 1766 to 2018 (1995) _____________________________________________________________________ Recent years: 2018 _ 76.7 mm ... ... 2017 _ 83.8 mm ... ... 2016 _ 67.5 mm ... ... 2015 _ 109.1 mm ... ... 2014 _ 118.9 mm ____ ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Hadley EWP is used for contest scoring. Deadlines are the same as for CET contest. Add your EWP forecast to your CET forecast for one combined entry. You can enter either contest without making a forecast in the other category. Good luck !!

I see it has reached 100 F in western Nebraska now, southern SD is in the humid tropical air but it's not mixing much so 84/73 recent report from PHP. Front appears to be just north of SD-ND border with some development. Here's a link to visual satellite imagery for the interest of those following the chase (I've been in this country and I know you don't need a satellite image because you can see about 100 miles from the Black Hills region). https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=13# all the other products on this NWS svr wx mesoscale link are very good too. -- you can see the front generating some weak cells about 40 miles north of the ND-SD border and more brewing west of Miles City MT. Rich cu fields either side of Missouri River valley in central SD (the Missouri has cut itself a pretty deep valley in the plains, and there are manmade lakes along there to add moisture). I remember getting hit by a vicious midnight storm in very hot weather at Pierre SD on my way west from former home in Ontario (this would be mid August of 1973), it had been 105 F in the daytime and this storm hit a campsite (luckily I was camping in a van), of course no internet, no radar, so it may have been forecast but I didn't know it was coming, and it had 80 mph gusts and big hail, lasted about ten minutes and trashed the place pretty well. This setup looks slightly different to what I recall of that one, although severe heat wave was in progress all across the plains and eastern states then. This evening and tonight, I would expect those cells in ND to get severe and start back building towards Buffalo SD or north of Rapid City. Some pretty good scenery from there over to Missouri River, noticed on my map there's a Lightning Butte in that region.

Looks like a day of slow development close to the SD-ND border (possibly into ne WY) with the storms most likely to form between 00z and 03z (which is 6 to 9 pm Mountain daylight time, 7 to 10 pm Central daylight time) or around sunset. Current radar is fairly inactive except much further west with some cells in n.w. Montana. Hopefully the Bismarck radar catches this development if Rapid City stays off line. Extreme heat is building to the south with the 594 dm thickness contour well into Colorado later today. On Friday there is a similar outlook but further south in South Dakota with slow daytime development and faster storm growth towards sunset and lasting most of the night with the extreme heat feeding a nearly stationary front (slow southward drift indicated overnight). There is also a secondary cold front depicted in Canada around 200 kms north of the border likely showing similar development cycles. The air mass in between the two fronts would be roughly 25/15 temp dew points so that secondary might have some potential for locally severe storms around Yorkton to Riding Mountain.

Continuing to transfer files from the old CET records thread to this newer version ... this is a list of hot spells adapted from a post originally made by Aderyn Coch. Hot spells of 10 days or longer, all days 18.0 or higher -- chronological order 1772 to 2019 DURATION _________________________DATES (continuously above 18.0) & MEAN CET _____ RANK for LENGTH __ RANK for AVG CET (first 23) 11 days ____ 19t ________ xx ______ 5-15th August 1773 __ 19.65 13 d _______ 13 ________ xx _______8-20th July 1783 __ 19.48 10 d _______ 24t ________ 3 ______ 11-20th July 1808 __ 21.40 16 d _______ 5t ________ 16 _______ 26th June - 11th July 1826 __ 20.26 12 d_______ 14t ________20 _______ 11-22nd June 1846 __ 19.94 14 d _______ 9t ________ 12 _______ 4-17th July 1852 __ 20.38 14 d _______ 9t ________ 14 _______ 8th-21st August 1893 __ 20.36 11 d ______ 19t ________ 18 _______ 18-28th July 1900 __ 19.98 10 d ______ 24t ________ 17 _______ 25th July -- 3rd August 1911 __ 20.08 14 d _______ 9t ________ 11 _______ 7-20th July 1921 __ 20.45 11 d ______ 19t _________10 ________5-15th July 1923 __ 20.66 12 d ______ 14t ________ xx _______31st July -- 11th August 1938 __ 19.09 10 d ______ 24t ________ 22t ______ 25th July -- 3rd August 1947 __ 19.71 12 d ______ 14t ________ 15 _______12-23rd August 1947 __ 20.28 12 d ______ 14t ________ xx ________7-18th July 1955 __ 19.43 11 d ______ 19t ________19 _______ 16-26th August 1955 __ 19.95 20 d _______ 1 ________ 13 _______ 27th July -- 15th August 1975 __ 20.35 18 d _______2t ________ 1 ________ 22nd June -- 9th July 1976 __ 22.04 16 d ______ 5t ________ xx ________11-26th August 1976 __19.05 15 d ______ 7t _________ 8 ________4-18th July 1983 __ 20.81 10 d _____ 24t ________ xx _______ 22-31st July 1983 __19.45 10 d _____ 24t ________ xx _______ 17-26th August 1983 __18.98 10 d _____ 24t _________ 9 _______ 17-26th July 1989 __ 20.67 14 d ______ 9t _________ 6 ________ 24th July -- 6th August 1995 __21.04 18 d ______ 2t _________ 7 ________ 6-23rd August 1997 __ 20.84 10 d _____ 24t _________ 2 ________4-13th August 2003 __ 21.69 12 d _____ 14t ________ 22 ________1-12th August 2004 __19.71 15 d ______ 7t _________ 4 ________ 16-30th July 2006 __ 21.21 17 d ______ 4 _________ xx ________ 13-29th July 2013 __19.56* 11 d _____ 19t _________21 ________ 17-27th July 2014 __19.90 10 d _____ 24t _________ 5 _________ 5-14 August 2020 __ 21.20 *with one day at 17.7 (30th July) this spell went to 21 days (ending 2 Aug) same CET of 19.56 __________________________________________________ NOTES: Ranking for mean temp showed only the top ten in original version because it was considered likely that below that range, the spells shown here have been matched by more variable spells (not consecutively > 18.0) of similar durations. In this new edition I have also ranked 11 to 22 and searched data for any non-qualifying 10-day spells that would rank top 50. ... those appear in the list below (e.g. July 2018). The 1976 spell is even more remarkable when you consider that a further week of hot weather occurred after one day failed to reach 18.0. The following list compares 10-day intervals but leaves out any within same hot spells that are slightly lower averages than the peak from any given spell. It includes the hottest 10 days of each year 1772 to 2019. Entries below 19.50 are grouped together without dates and to one decimal only. Second heat waves of given years are noted in green type. 1 __ 23.19 __ 1976 __ 28 June to 7 July (days 7 to 16 of the 18 day interval listed above).** 2 __ 21.96 __ 2006 __ 18-27 July (days 3 to 12 of the 15 day interval listed above). 3 __ 21.93 __ 1995 __ 25 July to 3 Aug (or 26 Jul to 4 Aug) .. days 2 or 3 to 11 or 12 of 14 day interval above. 4 __ 21.69 __ 2003 __ 4-13 August (as listed above). 5 __ 21.63 __ 1983 __ 8-17 July (days 5 to 14 of 15 day spell listed above). 6 __ 21.40 __ 1808 __ 11-20 July (interval listed above). 7 __ 21.36 __ 1975 __ 31 July to 9 August (days 5 to 14 of the 20 day interval listed above). 8 __ 21.20 __ 2020 __ 5 to 14 August (interval listed above) 9 __ 21.09 __ 1997 __ 7-16 August (days 2 to 11 of 18 day interval listed above). 10 __ 20.93 __ 1825 __ 11-20 July (17.8 on 11th then nine days 18.0 or higher to 20th, would have ranked 6th above). 11 __ 20.92 __ 1923 __ 5-14 July (first ten days of the eleven day interval listed above). 12 __ 20.81 __ 1893 __ 9-18 August (days 2 to 11 of the 14 day period listed above). 13 __ 20.77 __ 1826 __ 26 Jun - 5 July (first ten of the sixteen days listed above). 14t__ 20.67 __ 1852 __ 4-13 July (first ten of the fourteen day spell listed above). 14t__ 20.67 __ 1989 __ 17-26 July (as listed above). 16 __ 20.61 __ 1947 __ 13-22 August (2nd to 11th days of 12 day interval listed above). 17 __ 20.60 __ 1948 __ 24 July to 2 August (25th to 31st July and 2nd Aug above 18, 26th to 30th average 23.1) 18 __ 20.53 __ 1995 __ 13-22 August (10-23 August was a 14 day interval average 20.44 prevented from appearing by 17.9 14th). 19 __ 20.49 __ 1921 __ 10-19 July (4th to 13th days of 14 day interval listed above). 20 __ 20.30 __ 1793 __ 7-16 July (17.6 on 9th prevented 5th to 17th July 13 days 20.12 avg from appearing in list above) 21 __ 20.20 __ 1868 __ 13-22 July (17.7 on 13th and 17.0 on 17th prevented this ten day interval from appearing in list above) 22 __ 20.12 __ 1900 __ 18-27 July (first ten days of the eleven day interval listed above). 23t__ 20.12 __ 1911 __ 20-29 July (25 July-3 August 20.08 listed above, 23rd and 24th July were below 18.0). 15 day avg was 19.82. 23t__ 20.12 __ 1955 __ 17-26 August (2nd to 11th days of 11-day period listed above). 25 __ 20.11 __ 1846 __ 13-22 Jun (days 3 to 12 of 12 day spell listed above) -- note a second hot spell later in 1846 below 26 __ 20.10 __ 1911 __ 7-16 August (not listed above due to 15th 17.6, 16th 16.2, but 7-20 Aug was 14 day interval avg 19.75) 27 __ 20.07 __ 2013 __ 16-25 July (days 4 to 13 of the 17-day interval listed above). 28 __ 20.05 __ 2014 __ 17-26 July (first ten of the eleven day interval listed above). 29 __ 19.92 __ 2018 __ 19-28 July (days two and ten of this interval were 17.8 and 17.5, preventing it from being listed above). 30 __ 19.89 __ 2004 __ 1-10 August (first ten days of twelve day spell listed above). 31 __ 19.80 __ 1773 __ 5-14 August (first ten days of eleven day spell listed above). 32 __ 19.79 __ 1818 __ 18-27 July (17.7 on 20th prevented 14th to 27th July 14 days 19.56 avg from appearing in list above) 33 __ 19.78 __ 1990 __ 27 July to 5 August (first, third and last of these days below 18, core of heat 1-4 August avg 22.5). 34 __ 19.74 __ 2019 __ 22-31 July (core of heat 22-26 July). 35 __ 19.72 __ 1876 __ 12-21 Aug (16.7 on 18th and 17.1 on 20th prevented this interval from appearing in list above) 36 __ 19.71 __ 1947 __ 25 July to 3 August (interval listed above) 37 __ 19.70 __ 1859 __ 10-19 July (17.0 on 14th, 17.6 on 21st prevented 10th to 22nd July 13 days 19.46 avg from appearing in list above) 38 __ 19.67 __ 1941 __ 6-15 July (16.7 on 15th prevented this interval from appearing in list above). 39 __ 19.65 __ 1955 __ 8-17 July (2nd to 11th days of 12-day interval listed above). 40 __ 19.65 __ 1957 __ 27 June to 6 July (17.2 on 2nd July prevented this interval from appearing in list above). 41 __ 19.64 __ 1846 __ 29 July to 7 August (16.6 on 2nd Aug prevented 28 Jul to 7 Aug 11 days 19.54 avg from appearing in list above) 42 __ 19.62 __ 1934 __ 4-13 July (6 to 11 July above 20, 4th at 17.2 prevented the ten days from appearing in list above). 43 __ 19.60 __ 2001 __ 26 June to 5 July (28-30 June below 18 prevented 25 June to 7 July -- 13 d -- avg 19.52 from appearing in list above). 44 __ 19.59 __ 1999 __ 29 July to 7 August (first and last day of ten day interval below 18 prevented this from appearing in list above). 45 __ 19.56 __ 1847 __ 6 to 15 July (three days below 18.0 8th to 10th in a span of 12 days 5 to 16 July that averaged 19.48). 46t__ 19.54 __ 1830 __ 23 July - 1 August (24th and 1st Aug were below 18.0 so this does not appear in list above). 46t__ 19.54 __ 2003 __ 9-18 July (8-19 July was 12d int avg 19.42 prevented by 11th and 12th being sub 18 from appearing in list above). 46t__19.54 __ 2009 __ 26 to 5 July (heat mostly 29 June to 2 July). 49 __19.53 __ 1783 __ 8-17 July (first ten of the 13 days listed above). 50 __ 19.51 __ 1933 __ 1-10 August (only 3-7 August were above 20). 51t__ 19.49 __ 1868 __ 1-10 August (2-6 and 10th were 20+ but 7-9 were all below 18.0). 51t__19.49 __ 2006 __ 28 June to 7 July (heat mostly 1-6 July, several days below 18 to start this interval). 53 __ 19.46 __ 1878 __ 15-24 July (only 17th to 22nd were 18.0 or above, 18th to 22nd 20+). 54 __ 19.45 __ 1983 __ 22-31 July (listed above) 19.4 __ 1779, 1856, 1870, 1926, 2005, 2016 19.3 __ 1800, 1817, 1871, 1884, 1897, 1901, 1938, 1959, 1984 19.2 __ 1872, 1935, 1949 19.1 __ 1778, 1932, 1943, 2008 19.0 __ 1857, 1994 18.9 __ 1797, 1869, 1874, 1898, 1969, 1982 18.8 __ 1792, 1794, 1906, 1937, 2017 18.7 __ 1831, 1842, 1850, 1899, 1925 18.6 __ 1775, 1781, 1828, 1912, 1936, 2012 18.5 __ 1822, 1865, 1880, 1885, 1904, 1929, 1952, 1953, 1986, 1987 18.4 __ 1798, 1802, 1807, 1837, 1858, 1940, 1942, 1967, 1971 18.3 __ 1772, 1780, 1819, 1835, 1836, 1887, 1905, 1919, 1930, 1973, 1991, 1996 18.2 __ 1820, 1867, 1881, 1939, 1944, 1945, 1970, 2002, 2015 18.1 __ 1795, 1803, 1827, 1875, 1886, 1909, 2010 18.0 __ 1866, 1873, 1917, 1960, 1961, 1977, 1998, 2000 17.9 __ 1814, 1950, 1972, 2011 17.8 __ 1787, 1824, 1840, 1980 17.7 __ 1777, 1804, 1834, 1894, 1896, 1916, 1958 17.6 __ 1801, 1832, 1895, 1902, 1946, 17.5 __ 1790, 1821, 1844, 1855, 1863, 1928, 1964 17.4 __ 1774, 1776, 1782, 1791, 1838, 1908, 1978, 1979 17.3 __ 1785, 1788, 1789, 1854, 1861, 1883, 1918, 1927, 1992 17.2 __ 1786, 1810, 1914 17.1 __ 1796, 1806, 1811, 1812, 1849, 1851, 1864, 1924, 1966 17.0 __ 1784, 1805, 1833, 1843, 1891, 1951, 1968 16.9 __ 1877, 1889, 1903 16.8 __ 1799, 1956, 1963, 1981, 1985 16.7 __ 1845, 1892, 1910, 1922, 1993 16.6 __ 1882, 1965 16.5 __ 1813, 1815, 1848, 1907, 1988 16.4 __ 1853, 1890, 1915 16.3 __ 1829 16.2 __ 1809, 1913, 1931, 2007 16.1 __ 1888, 1920 16.0 __ 1839, 1954 15.9 __ 1974 15.8 __ 1841, 1879 15.7 __ 1962 15.5 __ 1860 15.4 __ 1823 15.2 __ 1862 14.8 __ 1816 ________________________________________________ note: 19.32 for 26 May to 4 June 1947 almost made it as a third interval for that year. ** 17-26 Aug 1976 average 19.34, days 7-16 of second 1976 spell

EWP was still only 6 mm through 15th and probably also yesterday, today will add a few (so it has probably now passed the all-time July minimum of 8 mm) ... 12z GFS suggests around 30 mm to come in next ten days, that projection misses some of today's rain so let's say 35 mm more to 27th 12z, then perhaps 5-10 more after that. Still looks plausible that 50 mm would be a rough estimate, but if you want to compare the previous excel projection to 70 mm, here it is (if final total is 60 mm your change of position will be less dramatic). Also, looking quite warm now to end of month, could see a run towards 18 as final value (needs to average almost 20 from now on to get there, assuming 17.0 by 20th, eleven days at 19.9 produce an average of 18.0). EWP20182019Julyb.xlsx

Enhanced severe risk today in northern half of western South Dakota roughly Black Hills to ND border. Active front in s.e. Montana at present but best looking potential developer is in northeast Wyoming. This will peak late today and last most of the overnight hours moving gradually east through northern SD. Then tomorrow southeast ND around Fargo to Jamestown, east towards Alexandria MN to Redwood Falls MN looks good. Western half of MN fairly open country, would not chase into forested areas around Bemidji though.

This thread will track the emerging next set of 30-year normals to replace the 1981-2010 CET values, which are shown below, followed by what we have to date (1991-2019 for Jan to July and 1991-2018 for Aug-Dec and annual). The July 2019 value is projected from current tracking as 17.5 and this will be adjusted in edits later this month. What follows the list of almost completed 1991-2020 averages will be final values that would occur for ranges of plausible values in 2020 (for Jan-July) or average of 2019-20 for Aug-Dec and annual. The thread will be maintained and edited so that these ranges shrink down to 2020 values by January, and we welcome in the new normals one by one during 2020 (subject to official verification when close to the rounding boundaries). (18 Apr 2020 _ updated with January to March 2020 now provisionally complete, awaiting Met Office confirmation.) (01 Sep 2020 _ updated with April to August 2020 now provisionally complete, awaiting Met Office confirmation. Both March and April are almost equally likely to be 0.1 different, 6.8 and 8.9 being the alternates, based on slightly different methodology used by them and myself as explained). (02 Dec 2020 _ updated Sept, Oct, Nov as shown) _______ Jan _ Feb _ Mar _ Apr _ May _ Jun _ Jul _ Aug _ Sep _ Oct _ Nov _ Dec __ YEAR 1981-2010 _ 4.4 _ 4.4 _ 6.6 _ 8.5 _11.7 _14.4 _16.7 _16.4 _14.0 _10.7 _7.1 _ 4.6 ___ 10.0 1991-2020 _ 4.7 _ 4.9 _ 6.7 _ 9.0?_11.9_14.7 _16.8 _16.5 _ 14.2 _ 10.9 _7.4_5.0 ___ 10.2 JAN has ended up 4.7 (from 4.66). FEB has ended up 4.9 (from 4.89). MAR will end up 6.7 or possibly 6.8, wait and see what Met Office says, my average is 6.74 so any differentials produced by average of max and min instead of monthly means could change it. APR will end up either 8.9 or 9.0 as my method gives 8.947 as the average, the Met Office calculates from mean max and mean min, whereas my tracking is an average of thirty monthly means. There can be differences especially with these cases very close to dividing lines. MAY has ended up 11.9 (from 11.90). JUN has ended up 14.7 (from 14.69). JUL has ended up 16.8 (from 16.79). AUG has ended up 16.5 (from 16.51). . SEP has ended up 14.2 (from 14.17). OCT has ended up 10.9 (from 10.93). NOV has ended up at 7.4 (from 7.41). DEC has ended up 5.0 (from 4.97). and the ANNUAL has settled at 10.2 (from 10.23), All of these stats will be updated by edit going forward.

EWP was on 6 mm and probably still is today, then the ten-day GFS forecasts seem to have dropped a bit with heavy amounts only shown in the southwest, the grid average appears to be little more than 20 mm. From day eleven to end of the run (which is now almost end of July), would estimate another 20 mm, but GFS tendency is to reset to stronger zonality than sometimes actually happens in that range. So for now the provisional estimate of 50 mm and the excel file posted earlier remain in play. I have one prepared for 70 mm in case that higher outcome gets into play. There are one or two cases where somebody would end up more than one position away from the 50 mm table, top three would scramble to Reef, BFTV and seaside60.

There have been some fairly strong storms in the past three hours in southern SK and it looks like a reload will happen late Sunday (bad timing for the chase dates). That cluster will exit the region on Monday. It then looks a little quieter for much of the week in the Canadian portion but I do see several fairly good opportunities around the eastern SD and southwest MN region through next week. Hot and dry signal for weekend of 20th-21st followed by slowly advancing frontal zone could be quite good in Montana and southern Alberta towards end of chase period. Where do your flights land and depart? Just thinking of the logistics near end of that time window. (Barry a non-factor, that moisture will be swept northeast into Ohio valley towards Maryland and Virginia, but it's already plenty humid in ND and SK now, dew points near 20 reported today in SK)

Paul, I think you'll find Weyburn SK between Regina and Estevan is one place that gets more than its share of severe storms, and from there they tend to move northeast and cross the Trans-Canada Highway near Broadview SK. No guarantees but I would scout the roads in that section of the province (I have been through both places but never tried to navigate from one to the other directly). What range of dates will your tour cover?

Yes, the reason we didn't necessarily enshrine that fact was because in 2018 we were using the other version of EWP and I think MIA ranked 2nd in that. I should point out also that the scoring is based on first reported values and what you see in the EWP tables (eventually) is sometimes a bit different from the value used for scoring. That is now handled by the "ultimate scoring" table but we didn't have that in the first year. It's interesting that sometimes the whole field misses the general temp-precip "flavour" of the month as shown in a couple of outcomes in the table above.

Okay, so I decided to track this statistic of "best combined forecast" -- it's not that much work, just opened up the 2017-18 CET scoring file and cross-referenced with EWP (will use Hadley for both years which will make a minor difference in some cases). The criterion will be simple -- lowest combined ranking based on the scoring systems used in each contest. Then the list can be extended into this year using the latest CET file for June and the EWP scoring file. LOWEST COMBINED RANKS (Best combined forecast) for each month MONTH ___ FORECASTER __ RANKS (CET, EWP) _ Total __ any others under 12 combined Dec 17 ____ Terminal Moraine __ 8, 2 ____________ 10 _____ none Jan 18 ____ Stargazer ________ 1, 3 ______________4 _____ Polar Gael 8 (2, 6) .. BFTV 11 (9, 2) Feb 18 ____ Midlands Ice Age __ 1, 6 ______________7 _____ Norrance 8 (6, 2) ... DAVID SNOW 11 (7, 4) Mar 18 ____ Norrance _________ 6, 4 _____________10 _____ Roger J Smith 12 (10, 2) Apr 18 ____ davehsug ________ 11, 4 _____________15 _____ none May 18 ____ Polar Gael ________2, 2 ______________4 _____ Mapantz 9 (4, 5) Jun 18 ____ Let it Snow! _______ 4, 3 ______________7 _____ none Jul 18 _____ Singularity _______ 17, 4 ____________ 21 _____ none Aug 18 ____ AlexisJ9*_________ 1, 4 ______________5*_____*tied with syed2878 (5 from 3, 2). Sep 18 ____ Let it Snow! ______ 13, 7 ____________ 20 _____ none Oct 18 ____ Midlands Ice Age ___ 1, 1 _____________ 2 _____ none Nov 18 ____ Reef _____________7, 3 ____________ 10 _____ none Dec 18 ____ Feb1991Blizzard ___ 4, 2 _____________ 6 _____ none (Reef 13 .. 8, 5) Jan 19 ____ CheesepuffScott ____1, 8 _____________ 9 _____ Th Wintry Showers 11 (10, 1) Feb 19 ____ Diagonal Red Line __1, 7 _____________ 8 _____ none Mar 19 ____ Reef _____________5, 4 _____________ 9 _____ none Apr 19 ____ Ed Stone _________ 5, 6 _____________11 _____ none May 19 ___ daniel* ___________10, 5 _____________15 _____ none Jun 19 ___ nn2013 ____________3, 7 _____________10 _____ Godber1 .. 12 (11, 1) ____________________________________________________________ Will maintain this list going forward. The average of the first 19 combined months is 9.5 for combined rank so around 5th in each contest is the average, there is no large statistical difference in whether CET or EWP ranks higher (averages 5.3 and 4.3).

Correction needed to this -- now I remember this detail too -- using Hadley we have seen a perfect combination, in October 2018, Midlands Ice Age had top score in both. This is what I remembered but using the other scoring system I think it was more like 1st and 2nd there ... We had a look at that question about a year ago, IIRC the answer is technically no, checking back, there was a second/second combination and a first/third combination in 2018 (see later post and above edit). Since then I'm pretty certain nobody has done so. Will be fighting you for it this month (if my estimates above are correct) holding at 18.0 and 45 mm. What may make it tough is that to win CET you have to be either in early or go wide of consensus (later entries ranked lower), so an early call on CET with the EWP question to answer, of course you can change your EWP up to deadline and I rank similar guesses equally. (Also about a quarter of CET entrants don't make an EWP forecast so if one of those finishes first in CET, that rules out the double potential.) Will see if I can find the discussion about this, it was towards the end of the first year of EWP so will look in November and work back from there. (later edit, decided to make a list instead, see next post of mine).

Speaking of local climates, where I am now will be one of the snowiest places I've lived, we're in some hills reaching about 2000 metres and ski resorts a few miles away, so the town (Rossland) gets regular snowfalls of one to two metres, which will be about three times the regular snowfall where we were living the past two winters (albeit 2017-18 had some heavy snowfalls there, 2018-19 was more subdued). I spent a few years in the Georgian bay snowbelt in the mid 1970s so it may rival that location. It doesn't get as cold as Edmonton in the winter here but a steady -5 to -10 sort of regime at this altitude, down in the nearby Columbia valley they get only a quarter of our snowfall and the average daytime high in January is about 3 C so some of the moisture is rain there. Looking forward to a brief look at this heavy snow followed by opportunities to read about it on the local facebook page from a safe distance in Jan-Feb. (not a skier these days) ... Getting back to the CET/EWP focus, would estimate the EWP reached 3 or 4 mm after yesterday, it was 2 mm after 9th, and there were some rainfalls in northern England mostly on the 10th, but heavier rain stayed in Ulster and Scotland. The GFS shows 10-day amounts over the EWP grid that average about 25-30 mm (heavier in the north, lighter in the southwest). The following six days on the GFS 06z have perhaps 10 mm additional to that, so I still think that 50 mm might be a reasonable estimate. The CET looks like plenty of upside potential and could be headed up into the high 17s to near 18 by end of the run. (if BFTV does a ten-day estimate, I will guess that comes out near 17.2 but it looks even warmer beyond ten days).

Sounds like a great idea. Canada gets its fair share of severe storms. There has been at least one F-5 tornado (at Elie, Manitoba a few years ago, it was videotaped but did little damage fortunately staying over large fields for most of its track). There have been quite a few F-3 or even F-4 tornado instances that have hit towns and caused damage and fatalities. Here's a partial list of the largest tornado events in Canada: 1912 _ An F-4 tornado did a lot of damage in Regina, SK which at that time was a much smaller town than today, and there were roughly 30 people killed in that storm, which I recall being end of June. 1922 _ A large tornado hit Portage la Prairie, a town between Winnipeg and Brandon MB and several people were killed. 1979 _ An F-4 moved through small rural towns near Woodstock, ON in August and levelled a few houses, several people were killed. I saw that damage the next day as I was driving through the area. 1985 _ A strong F-3 hit the city of Barrie north of Toronto on May 31st, killing eight people and levelling a section of the city. This cell lasted for over an hour and came within two miles of my home at that time (in Peterborough, ON) where it was still an F-1, we were on the north side of the cell and just got rain and hail but I got to see the green sky effect. 1987 _ A tornado hit parts of Edmonton (31st of July) and produced a death toll near 30. 2000 _ An F-3 developed rapidly and hit a trailer park at a lake north of Calgary (Pine Lake) with several people killed. That was around this time of year (mid July). Some time around then a town in southwest SK had 12" of rain from a stalled supercell that led to severe flooding. more recently, and I don't have the actual years in mind, damaging tornadoes hit Goderich on Lake Huron and the western suburbs of Ottawa. I can think of somewhat less destructive tornado touchdowns in Quebec, Nova Scotia, and southern BC near where I live now. So we do get them and they are about on the same scale as May in Oklahoma, the weather dynamics are fairly similar in July in the prairies. The "dry line" feature may be hit or miss, many of our tornadic storms form on cold fronts. But south central SK can have temperatures well into the 30s and low 40s, and dew points into the mid-20s. Very large hail is common in Alberta and Saskatchewan as well. Good luck with this storm chase. (more complete lists of Canadian tornadoes here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Canadian_tornadoes_and_tornado_outbreaks ... up to year 2000, and this links to a more recent list )

Summary of the Annual extremes (see last two posts for tables) Highest Daily Mean for each of 250 years 1772 to 2021 The range of dates is 15 May (1833, tied) to 01 October (1985). The count by month (assigning 0.5 to tied values in different months) is MAY .. 3.5 (4) JUN .. 46.0 (47) JUL .. 111.5 (114) AUG .. 75.0 (76) SEP .. 13.0 (14) OCT ... 1.0 (1) The number in brackets gives the number of years in which the month at least shares in the category of highest daily mean. For example, August had two cases of dates tied with other months, so the count was 74.0, the number of cases was 75. A case where a month has more than one day does not affect this, there were about half a dozen such cases, usually consecutive days or nearby days in a warm spell. One year actually had three days tied, all in July. Despite July coming ahead of August in this count, the highest frequency on any one date is 9 on the 12th of August. Other dates that scored five or more include 5 June (5), 5 July (7), 9, 12, 16, 17 July (all made it to five with one tie included), 20 (7), 22, 24 and 29 July (all at 6 but 22 July now goes to 7 as 2021 confirmed) , and 5 Aug (5). There seems to be a little flicker of warmth near the end of September into the first of October given that one case fell in the period 15-26 September, then three from 27 Sep to 1 Oct. Periods with very few annual extremes within the summer months include 11-14 June (zero) and from 21 to 26 August which totalled 5.0 including two ties. The frequency after that period is not much greater but given the seasonal distribution that part of August stands out a bit. There are ten cases between 27 August and 2 September. The trend of these values is gradually increasing although the period 1975 to 2006 stands out in recent times, since 2007 (to 2012 as originally posted) of course the performance of this index is nothing out of the ordinary as the long-term average is 20.9 while the average since 1901 is 21.1 ... in the warmer period 1975 to 2006 the average was 21.9. The past six summers (meaning 2007-12) have averaged 20.9, equal to the long-term average. The period 2013-16 then warmed to 23.0 so the past ten years have continued near the 1975-2006 pace, at 21.7. The highest extremes are probably a lot better known to weather "buffs" than the lowest annual max values, so I had a look at those. 1860 and 1862 stand out with 17.2 and 17.3 the best those years could manage. A more recent period of cool summers appears 1962-66, five years when the value 20.0 was never achieved. Frequency in various 30-year intervals is shown here: Interval _________ May __ Jun __ Jul __ Aug __ Sep __ Oct 1772-1801 ________0 ____8.5___12.5____8 ____1 ____0 1802-1831 ________0 ____ 6 ___17.0*___4.5 __2.5 ___ 0 __ (* two 0.5 incl for July) 1832-1861 ________0.5___5.5 ___14.5 ___9.5 __ 0 ____0 1862-1891 ________0 ____ 2 ____ 12 ___ 14 ___ 2 ____0 1892-1921 ________1 ____ 7 ____ 10 ____ 8 ___ 4 ____0 1922-1951 ________ 2 ____ 6 ____14 ____ 7 ___ 1 ____0 1952-1981 ________ 0 ____ 3 ____14.5 __10 ___ 2.5 __ 0 1982-2021 ________ 0 ____ 8 ____ 16 ___14 ___ 0 ___ 1 __ (40 years)* ... The last year that had tied values in different months was 1956. The last year that had a maximum in May was 1944. * ... This table to be adjusted when it is known whether 22 July (22.2) or 8 Sep (prov 22.1) or both are warmest of 2021. __Annual Minimum Daily Means 1772-2021 and coldest of winter seasons__ Two notes here, 2021 is of course not yet over so the value of -2.2 in February is not "set" and this table could therefore change. It is settled as the coldest of winter 2020-21. Also, 1786 could have had a value in December, the data are missing, but it is not as likely to be the annual 1786 minimum as perhaps the winter seasonal minimum for 1786-87 which I have assigned to December 1786 on probability (see the table for that period for details). Not every annual minimum is a winter minimum, but there are two cases where a year managed to secure two different coldest of winter from tied values at either end of the year. There are numerous cases where a year claims two winters (such as 2019), as well as those where it claims no winters (for example, 2020). The following count for coldest mean daily per year follow the same logic as the max, the number includes 0.5 for ties in different months, and the number in brackets gives the number of times the month at least had a share. NOV ... 13.5 (14) DEC ... 75.5 (77) JAN .. 105.5 (108) FEB ... 50.0 (51) _ 2021 to be confirmed after Nov-Dec MAR ... 5.5 (6) Despite the fact that January and February CET means are often very close in 30-year periods and not that different (3, 4) over a longer term, January and even December score higher than February on this index. A small part of the reason is length of month, February has only 90% of the time available, but probably the bigger reason is solar angle, a cold February day can achieve a somewhat higher maximum. The most frequent date for the annual minimum is 1 Jan (count 8.0, 9 instances, so twice this date tied both times with 2 Jan). 28 December had a count of 7.5 with 8 instances. 22 December scored six while 23 January scored five and otherwise the count remains fairly even at about 2-4 per day through the heart of the winter season which appears to be 15 Dec to 15 Feb. In the heart of the winter season, the dates that were least likely to be the coldest of the year include 3 and 5 Feb around the time when the annual temperature curve shows a bit of a spike. The range of dates is 9 Nov (1921) to 21 March 1872 (later tied on 11 Dec). The average of this annual minimum over the entire 248-year period is -3.7, and this has risen to reach -3.0 since 1901. From 1988 to 2007 a two-decade mean of -1.6 was observed, but this has fallen back to -2.0 for the twenty-five years 1988-2012. For a ten-year period 1795 to 1804, the average was as low as -6.0 ... and this appears to be about the same value that other colder periods have had, although most of those did not last ten years, for example, 1890-95 (six years) managed an average of -6.3. The ten-year average of -4.6 from 1978 to 1987 was not often bettered in the colder 19th century or late 18th century. Meanwhile, the winter seasonal count looks very similar, although about one-third of winter seasonal minimum values are not annual minima for their particular year. The various possibilities seem to cancel out almost equally, but February does score a bit higher. NOV ... 15 (16) DEC ... 70.0 (71) JAN .... 99.0 (101) FEB ... 56.0 (57) MAR ...10.0 (10) The range in this variable runs from 12 Nov 1919 (for winter 1919-20) to 21 March 1899 (coldest of winter 1898-99). Since quite a few winters use up two cold annual values in the annual count, the long-term mean of this seasonal index is higher, at -3.5, and has risen to -2.9 since 1901. The recent winter season values are more similar to the annual values. This is the distribution of months in which the winter minimum value occurred (including ties at 0.5 for each) ... Interval _______ NOV ___ DEC ___ JAN ___ FEB ___ MAR 1772-1801 ______ 0 _____ 9 _____ 13.5 ____ 5.5 ____ 2 __ (1786-87 counted for Dec) 1802-1831 _____ 0.5 _____8 ______16.5 ____5 ______0 1832-1861 _____ 1 ______ 7 ______ 13 _____ 8 _____ 1 __ (Dec and Jan shared 2 each) 1862-1891 _____ 1 ______14 ______ 8.5 ____ 5.5 ____1 1892-1921 _____ 4.5 _____8.5 _____ 9.0 ____ 7 _____ 1 __ (Jan shared 2, one each with Nov and Dec) 1922-1951 _____ 1 ______ 9 ______ 11 _____ 6 _____ 3 1952-1981 _____ 3 ______ 3 ______ 15 _____ 8 _____ 1 1982-2021 _____ 4 ______11.5 ____12.5 ____11 _____1 _____________________________________________________ Note that December actually dominated around the end of the 19th century, and has begun to pick up again recently after falling well behind in the mid-20th century.

(part 2 of above 1901 to 2021) YEAR ... MAX DAILY MEAN (date) .... MIN DAILY MEAN (date) .... WINTER MIN (date) 1901 ... 22.6 ... 19 July .................... -3.5 ... 22 Dec ............... -2.6 on 14 Feb 1901 1902 ... 20.0 ... 28 June .................. -3.6 ... 13 Feb ............... -3.6 on 13 Feb 1902 1903 ... 20.2 ... 09 July .................... -3.3 ... 14 Jan ............... -3.3 on 14 Jan 1903 1904 ... 21.4 ... 04 Aug .................... -4.6 ... 24 Nov ............... -2.6 on 29 Dec 1903 1905 ... 19.5 ... 09,13,14 July .......... -1.8 ... 16 Jan ................ -4.6 on 24 Nov 1904 1906 ... 22.6 ... 02 Sep .................... -2.5 ... 26 Dec ............... -0.7 on 18 Nov 1905 1907 ... 18.0 ... 16 July .................... -3.4 ... 24 Jan ................ -3.4 on 24 Jan 1907 1908 ... 19.6 ... 30 Sep .................... -5.2 ... 30 Dec ............... -2.4 on 05 Jan 1908 1909 ... 20.3 ... 15 Aug .................... -2.9 ... 04 Mar ................-5.2 on 30 Dec 1908 1910 ... 18.7 ... 20 & 21 June .......... -3.6 ... 27 Jan ................ -3.6 on 27 Jan 1910 1911 ... 23.6 ... 13 Aug .................... -2.4 ... 02 Feb ............... -2.4 on 2 Feb 1911 1912 ... 22.0 ... 15 & 16 July ............ -5.0 ... 04 Feb ............... -5.0 on 4 Feb 1912 1913 ... 18.9 ... 27 Sep .................... -1.9 ... 31 Dec ............... -0.9 on 30 Nov 1912 & 13 Jan 1913 1914 ... 21.0 ... 30 June ................... -0.4 ... 23 Jan ............... -1.9 on 31 Dec 1913 1915 ... 19.5 ... 08 June ................... -2.6 ... 27 Nov ............... -0.1 on 23 Dec 1914 1916 ... 20.0 ... 12 Aug .................... -2.3 ... 16 Dec ............... -2.6 on 27 Nov 1915 1917 ... 21.4 ... 17 June ................... -7.2 ... 07 Feb ............... -7.2 on 7 Feb 1917 1918 ... 21.0 ... 22 Aug .................... -3.3 ... 08 Jan ................ -3.3 on 8 Jan 1918 1919 ... 19.9 ... 16 Aug .................... -3.6 ... 09 Feb ................-3.6 on 9 Feb 1919 1920 ... 18.5 ... 25 May..................... -5.1 ... 13 Dec ............... -1.4 on 12 Nov 1919 1921 ... 22.3 ... 18 July .................... -0.5 ... 09 Nov ................ -5.1 on 13 Dec 1920 1922 ... 19.5 ... 23 May .................... -2.8 ... 06 Feb ............... -2.8 on 6 Feb 1922 1923 ... 24.0 ... 13 July ...,,............... -2.2 ... 27 Nov ......,......... +1.2 on 20 Feb 1923 1924 ... 21.2 ... 12 July .................... -1.7 ... 09 Jan ................ -2.2 on 27 Nov 1923 1925 ... 22.3 ... 22 July .................... -3.8 ... 04 Dec ................ +0.9 on 13 Mar 1925 1926 ... 22.1 ... 14 July .................... -4.8 ... 16 Jan ................. -4.8 on 16 Jan 1926 1927 ... 19.3 ... 06 Aug .................... -4.4 ... 19 Dec ................ -1.9 on 11 & 12 Feb 1927 1928 ... 19.2 ... 24 July .................... -1.5 ... 15 Dec ................ -4.4 on 19 Dec 1927 1929 ... 20.8 ... 16 July .................... -8.0 ... 15 Feb .................-8.0 on 15 Feb 1929 1930 ... 22.8 ... 27 Aug .................... -1.7 ... 17 Nov ................ -1.0 on 20 Mar 1930 1931 ... 18.7 ... 04 Aug .................... -2.1 ... 07 Mar ................ -2.1 on 7 Mar 1931 1932 ... 22.8 ... 19 Aug .................... -2.0 ... 10 Feb ............... -2.0 on 10 Feb 1932 1933 ... 22.2 ... 04 Aug ................... -3.0 ... 24 Jan ................ -3.0 on 24 Jan 1933 1934 ... 20.9 ... 07 July .................... -0.2 ... 02 Feb ................ -0.4 on 6 & 10 Dec 1933 1935 ... 22.0 ... 24 June ................... -4.0 ... 23 Dec ................ -0.2 on 9 & 28 Jan 1935 1936 ... 21.6 ... 21 June ................... -1.6 ... 13 Feb ............... -4.0 on 23 Dec 1935 1937 ... 21.4 ... 03 July .................... -1.1 ... 29 Jan & 18 Dec . -1.1 on 29 Jan 1937 1938 ... 20.8 ... 01 Aug .................... -4.2 ... 20 Dec ................ -1.1 on 18 Dec 1937 1939 ... 20.6 ... 07 June ................... -2.3 ... 30 Dec .................-4.2 on 20 Dec 1938 1940 ... 20.4 ... 08 & 09 June .......... -7.1 ... 21 Jan ................. -7.1 on 21 Jan 1940 1941 ... 22.5 ... 12 July .................... -3.6 ... 16 Jan ................ -3.6 on 16 Jan 1941 1942 ... 23.0 ... 28 Aug .................... -5.0 ... 21 Jan ................ -5.0 on 21 Jan 1942 1943 ... 23.4 ... 31 July .................... -1.4 ... 14 Dec ................ -0.9 on 4 Jan 1943 1944 ... 21.1 ... 29 May .................... -1.9 ... 26 Dec ............... -1.4 on 14 Dec 1943 1945 ... 21.0 ... 15 July .................... -7.6 ... 26 Jan ................ -7.6 on 26 Jan 1945 1946 ... 19.8 ... 02 July .................... -3.7 ... 20 Jan ................ -3.7 on 20 Jan 1946 1947 ... 23.0 ... 03 June ................... -6.7 ... 24 Feb ............... -6.7 on 24 Feb 1947 1948 ... 25.2 ... 29 July .................... -2.7 ... 21 Feb ............... -3.0 on 1 Dec 1947 1949 ... 22.4 ... 05 Sep .................... -0.6 ... 04 Feb ................-1.8 on 26 Dec 1948 1950 ... 22.5 ... 06 June ................... -2.8 ... 26 Jan ................ -2.8 on 26 Jan 1950 1951 ... 19.5 ... 21 July .................... -1.6 ... 29 Jan ................ -2.6 on 15 Dec 1950 1952 ... 22.5 ... 01 July .................... -3.7 ... 27 Jan ................ -3.7 on 27 Jan 1952 1953 ... 22.0 ... 12 Aug .................... -0.9 ... 05 Jan ................ -1.4 on 25 Nov 1952 1954 ... 18.2 ... 01 Sep .................... -5.0 ... 02 Feb ................ -5.0 on 2 Feb 1954 1955 ... 22.1 ... 22 & 23 Aug ............ -3.3 ... 20 Feb ............... -3.3 on 20 Feb 1955 1956 ... 18.7 ... 08 July & 22 Sep ..... -6.8 ... 01 Feb ............... -6.8 on 1 Feb 1956 1957 ... 22.3 ... 06 July ..................... -0.9 ... 16 Dec ............... -0.5 on 23 Nov 1956 1958 ... 20.0 ... 10 Aug .................... -2.8 ... 22 Jan ................ -2.8 on 22 Jan 1958 1959 ... 21.4 ... 20 Aug .................... -3.2 ... 14 & 16 Jan .........-3.2 on 14 & 16 Jan 1959 1960 ... 20.4 ... 05 June ................... -2.0 ... 14 Jan ................ -2.0 on 14 Jan 1960 1961 ... 21.6 ... 29 Aug .................... -3.5 ... 28 Dec ................ -0.7 on 13 Dec 1960 1962 ... 18.0 ... 09 July .................... -4.9 ... 01 Jan ................ -4.9 on 01 Jan 1962 1963 ... 19.1 ... 30 July .................... -8.4 ... 23 Jan ................ -8.4 on 23 Jan 1963 1964 ... 19.4 ... 17 July .................... -2.3 ... 26 Dec ................ -2.3 on 23 Dec 1963 1965 ... 18.6 ... 12 Aug .................... -3.9 ... 03 Mar ................ -3.9 on 3 Mar 1965 1966 ... 19.5 ... 09 June ................... -4.9 ... 19 Jan ................ -4.9 on 19 Jan 1966 1967 ... 20.6 ... 17 July .................... -2.2 ... 08 Dec ................ -1.8 on 08 Jan 1967 1968 ... 21.8 ... 01 July .................... -2.5 ... 10 Jan ................ -2.5 on 10 Jan 1968 1969 ... 21.4 ... 16 July .................... -3.5 ... 08 Feb ................-3.5 on 8 Feb 1969 1970 ... 21.6 ... 07 July .................... -3.7 ... 07 Jan ................ -3.7 on 7 Jan 1970 1971 ... 19.9 ... 09 July .................... -3.4 ... 04 Jan ................ -3.4 on 4 Jan 1971 1972 ... 19.2 ... 18 July .................... -4.5 ... 31 Jan ................ -4.5 on 31 Jan 1972 1973 ... 20.9 ... 16 Aug .................... -1.7 ... 30 Nov ............... -1.5 on 15 Feb 1973 1974 ... 18.6 ... 15 Aug .................... -1.6 ... 01 Jan ................ -1.7 on 30 Nov 1973 1975 ... 23.7 ... 08 Aug ...................... 0.0 ... 14 Dec ............... +1.7 on 09 Feb 1975 1976 ... 24.7 ... 04 July .................... -2.0 ... 04 Dec ............... -1.2 on 30 Jan 1976 1977 ... 20.0 ... 05 July .................... -1.8 ... 12 Jan ................ -2.0 on 04 Dec 1976 1978 ... 19.6 ... 01 June ................... -3.5 ... 31 Dec ............... -3.3 on 11 Feb 1978 1979 ... 19.5 ... 12 Aug .................... -4.3 ... 28 Jan ................ -4.3 on 28 Jan 1979 1980 ... 20.7 ... 05 June ................... -1.9 ... 14 Jan ............... -1.9 on 14 Jan 1980 1981 ... 20.1 ... 05 Aug .................... -8.5 ... 12 Dec ................ -0.7 on 14 Feb 1981 1982 ... 21.3 ... 05 June ................... -7.6 ... 14 Jan ................ -8.5 on 12 Dec 1981 1983 ... 22.7 ... 13 July ..................... -1.5 ... 23 Nov ............... -1.0 on 10 Feb 1983 1984 ... 21.6 ... 21 Aug .................... -1.9 ... 15 Feb ............... -1.9 on 15 Feb 1984 1985 ... 20.2 ... 01 Oct ..................... -4.4 ... 17 Jan ................ -4.4 on 17 Jan 1985 1986 ... 21.9 ... 28 June ................... -4.6 ... 10 Feb ............... -4.6 on 10 Feb 1986 1987 ... 20.9 ... 20 Aug .................... -7.7 ... 12 Jan ................ -7.7 on 12 Jan 1987 1988 ... 19.3 ... 07 Aug .................... -0.1 ... 22 Nov ................ -0.7 on 10 Dec 1987 1989 ... 23.1 ... 22 July .................... -0.3 ... 26 Nov .................-0.1 on 22 Nov 1988 1990 ... 24.4 ... 03 Aug .................... +0.5 ... 15 Dec ............... -0.3 on 26 Nov 1989 1991 ... 20.6 ... 11 & 29 July ............ -4.7 ... 07 Feb ................ -4.7 on 07 Feb 1991 1992 ... 20.4 ... 29 June ................... -2.3 ... 22 Jan ................ -3.5 on 12 Dec 1991 1993 ... 19.4 ... 10 June .................. -2.9 ... 23 Nov ................ -2.4 on 29 Dec 1992 1994 ... 20.6 ... 24 July .................... -1.9 ... 14 Feb ................ -2.9 on 23 Nov 1993 1995 ... 24.9 ... 01 Aug .................... -4.7 ... 28 Dec ................ -1.2 on 3 Jan 1995 1996 ... 22.1 ... 19 Aug .................... -2.2 ... 07 Feb ................ -4.7 on 28 Dec 1995 1997 ... 22.6 ... 11 Aug .................... -2.6 ... 01 Jan ................ -2.6 on 01 Jan 1997 1998 ... 20.5 ... 11 Aug .................... -0.3 ... 06 Dec ............... +0.2 on 01 Feb 1998 1999 ... 21.7 ... 31 July .................... -2.2 ... 20 Dec ................-0.3 on 06 Dec 1998 2000 ... 21.5 ... 19 June .................. -1.9 ... 29 Dec ................ -2.2 on 20 Dec 1999 2001 ... 23.0 ... 29 July .................... -1.2 ... 16 Jan ................ -1.9 on 29 Dec 2000 2002 ... 21.6 ... 29 July .................... -1.8 ... 01 & 02 Jan ........ -1.8 on 1 & 2 Jan 2002 2003 ... 23.9 ... 09 Aug .................... -1.4 ... 07 Jan ................ -1.4 on 07 Jan 2003 2004 ... 21.7 ... 08 Aug ................... +0.5 ... 29 Jan & 20 Dec.. +0.5 on 30 Dec 2003 & 29 Jan 2004 2005 ... 22.1 ... 19 June .................. -1.0 ... 29 Dec ................ +0.4 on 23 Feb 2005 2006 ... 24.5 ... 19 July .................... -1.4 ... 02 Feb ................ -1.4 on 2 Feb 2006 2007 ... 19.7 ... 05 Aug .................... -1.5 ... 07 & 08 Feb ....... -1.5 on 7 & 8 Feb 2007 2008 ... 21.1 ... 28 July .................... -2.5 ... 31 Dec ................ -0.5 on 21 Dec 2007 2009 ... 22.5 ... 01 July .................... -3.0 ... 06 Jan .................-3.0 on 6 Jan 2009 2010 ... 19.9 ... 10 July .................... -7.0 ... 20 Dec ................ -4.6 on 7 Jan 2010 2011 ... 22.0 ... 27 June ................... -1.4 ... 29 Jan ................ -7.0 on 20 Dec 2010 2012 ... 20.3 ... 18 Aug .................... -3.0 ... 04 Feb ............... -3.0 on 4 Feb 2012 2013 ... 22.7 ... 01 Aug .................... -2.9 ... 16 Jan ................ -2.9 on 16 Jan 2013 2014 ... 21.0 ... 18 July .................... +0.8 ... 29 Dec ............... +2.5 on 23 Nov 2013 2015 ... 24.6 ... 01 July ..................... -0.3 ... 2 Feb .................. -0.3 on 2 Feb 2015 2016 ... 23.5 ... 20 July ..................... +0.3 .. 16 Jan ................ +0.3 on 16 Jan 2016 2017 ... 21.9 ... 19 June ....................--0.4 ... 12 Dec ............... --0.1 on 26 Jan 2017 2018 ... 22.5 ... 27 July ......................--3.8 ... 1 Mar ................. --3.8 on 1 Mar 2018 2019 ... 25.2 ... 25 July ..................... --1.8 .. 31 Jan ................. --1.8 on 31 Jan 2019 2020 ... 25.1 ... 12 Aug ..................... --1.3 .. 31 Dec ................. +1.5 on 2 Dec 2019 2021 ... 22.2 ... 22 July ...................... --2.1 .. 11 Feb (so far) .. --2.1 on 11 Feb 2021

Continuing with the transfer of data from older thread ... Highest and lowest CET daily means for each year 1772 to 2018 (part 1 to 1900) YEAR .. MAX DAILY MEAN (date)..... MIN DAILY MEAN (date) ... Coldest of winter (Jan-Feb of year) 1772 ... 20.8 ... 26 June .................. -4.5 ... 06 Feb ...............-4.5 on 6 Feb .. no data Nov-Dec 1771 1773 ... 22.5 ... 10 Aug ................... -3.3 ... 09 Feb ...............-4.0 on 25 Dec 1772 1774 ... 20.2 ... 09 Aug ................... -3.2 ... 09 Dec .............. -3.0 on 4-5 Jan 1774 1775 ... 21.1 ... 21 July ................... -3.7 ... 25 Jan ............... -3.7 on 25 Jan 1775 1776 ... 20.3 ... 02 Aug ................... -7.5 ... 30 Jan ............... -7.5 on 30 Jan 1776 1777 ... 19.4 ... 16 & 17 July............ -5.0 ... 08 Jan,19 Feb ... -5.0 on 8 Jan & 19 Feb 1777 1778 ... 21.6 ... 13 July .................. -2.9 ... 27 Jan .............. -2.9 on 27 Jan 1778 1779 ... 22.0 ... 15 July ................... -5.1 ... 25 Dec ............... -1.4 on 15 Jan 1779 1780 ... 21.8 ... 01 Sep ................... -6.1 ... 13 Jan ............... -6.1 on 13 Jan 1780 1781 ... 20.9 ... 01 June .................. -2.9 ... 23 Jan ............... -2.9 on 23 Jan 1781 1782 ... 20.1 ... 26 June .................. -2.2 ... 16 Feb .............. -2.2 on 16 Feb 1782 1783 ... 22.6 ... 11 July .................... -7.1 ... 31 Dec .............. -4.7 on 26 Feb 1783 1784 ... 20.3 ... 07 July .................... -6.7 ... 12 Feb, 11 Dec.. -7.1 on 31 Dec 1783 1785 ... 19.5 ... 27 June, 26 July ..... -6.6 ... 20 Feb ............... -6.7 on 11 Dec 1784 1786 ... 20.7 ... 05 June ...................-7.6 ... 03 Jan ................ -7.6 on 3 Jan 1786 1787 ... 19.9 ... 05 July .................... -2.2 ... 28 Nov ............... -0.5 on 15 Nov 1786 & 27 Jan 1787** 1788 ... 20.4 ... 12 July .................... -5.9 ... 30 Dec .............. -2.5 on 8 March 1788 1789 ... 19.2 ... 05 Aug .................... -6.7 ... 12 Jan ............... -6.7 on 12 Jan 1789 1790 ... 21.8 ... 22 June .................. -0.6 ... 29 Dec ............... +0.6 on 20 Jan 1790 1791 ... 20.0 ... 05 June .................. -3.7 ... 12 Dec ................ -0.6 on 29 Dec 1790 1792 ... 21.8 ... 12 Aug ................... -5.4 ... 12 Jan ................. -5.4 on 12 Jan 1792 1793 ... 22.2 ... 16 July .................... -0.7 ... 30 Dec ............... -1.5 on 31 Dec 1792 1794 ... 20.6 ... 07 July .................... -2.8 ... 10 Jan ................ -2.8 on 10 Jan 1794 1795 ... 20.7 ... 12 Aug .................... -8.9 ... 25 Jan ................ -8.9 on 25 Jan 1795 1796 ... 19.6 ... 22 Aug .................. -10.8 ... 25 Dec .............. -1.4 on 6 & 7 March 1796 1797 ... 21.2 ... 14 July .................... -2.6 ... 09 Jan .............. -10.8 on 25 Dec 1796 1798 ... 21.4 ... 29 June .................. -8.4 ... 27 Dec ............... -1.6 on 19 Feb 1798 1799 ... 18.7 ... 10 June .................. -6.0 ... 31 Dec ................-8.4 on 27 Dec 1798 1800 ... 21.7 ... 02 Aug ................... -5.0 ... 01 Jan ................ -6.0 on 31 Dec 1799 1801 ... 20.2 ... 22 July ................... -3.8 ... 19 Dec ................ -1.3 on 13 Feb 1801 1802 ... 19.8 ... 06 Aug ................... -4.1 ... 13 Jan ................. -4.1 on 13 Jan 1802 1803 ... 20.8 ... 02 & 31 July ........... -5.9 ... 26 Jan ................. -5.9 on 26 Jan 1803 1804 ... 21.0 ... 01 Aug ................... -4.1 ... 24 Dec ................ -4.0 on 9 Dec 1803 1805 ... 18.9 ... 04 July ................... -3.8 ... 13 Dec ................ -4.1 on 24 Dec 1804 1806 ... 19.5 ... 10 June .................. -1.2 ... 30 Jan ................ -3.8 on 13 Dec 1805 1807 ... 21.2 ... 22 July .................... -5.4 ... 08 Dec ............... -2.5 on 18 & 19 Feb 1807 1808 ... 24.5 ... 13 July .................... -5.7 ... 22 Jan ................ -5.7 on 22 Jan 1808 1809 ... 18.5 ... 11 Aug*................... -5.1 ... 18 Jan ................ -5.1 on 18 Jan 1809 1810 ... 20.5 ... 02 Sep ................... -4.7 ... 21 Feb ................ -4.7 on 21 Feb 1810 1811 ... 18.6 ... 29 July ................... -3.6 ... 03 Jan ................. -3.6 on 3 Jan 1811 1812 ... 19.0 ... 18 July ................... -4.4 ... 08 Dec ................ -2.7 on 31 Dec 1811 1813 ... 20.2 ... 30 July ................... -3.2 ... 30 Dec ................ -4.4 on 8 Dec 1812 1814 ... 22.0 ....28 July ................... -6.7 ... 10 Jan ................. -6.7 on 10 Jan 1814 1815 ... 18.4 ... 12 July & 25 Aug..... -5.3 ... 24 Jan ................. -5.3 on 24 Jan 1815 1816 ....18.5 ... 20 July ................... -8.8 ... 09 Feb ................. -8.8 on 9 Feb 1816 1817 ... 22.7 ... 21 June ................. -2.0 ... 10 Jan .................. -4.9 on 22 Dec 1816 1818 ... 23.9 ... 24 July ................... -3.0 ... 17 Dec ................. -2.0 on 1 Jan 1818 1819 ... 21.8 ... 31 July ................... -6.0 ... 11 Dec ................. -3.0 on 17 Dec 1818 1820 ....21.9 ... 28 June .................. -8.5 ... 15 Jan ................. -8.5 on 15 Jan 1820 1821 ... 19.8 ... 05 Aug ................... -3.3 ... 02 Jan ................. -3.3 on 2 Jan 1821 1822 ....21.1 ... 10 Jun .................... -3.8 ... 28 Dec ................ +0.7 on 16 Jan 1822 1823 ... 19.2 ... 20 July & 14 Sep .... -8.9 ... 19 Jan ................. -8.9 on 19 Jan 1823 1824 ... 21.1 ... 02 Sep .................. -0.9 ... 14 Jan ................. -0.9 on 14 Jan 1824 1825 ... 23.7 ... 15 July .................. -1.2 ... 27 Dec ................. -0.7 on 4 Feb 1825 1826 ... 22.8 ... 27 June .................. -6.9 ... 15 Jan ................. -6.9 on 15 Jan 1826 1827 ... 20.7 ... 29 July ................... -4.7 ... 03 Jan ................. -4.7 on 03 Jan 1827 1828 ... 20.9 ... 03 July ................... -1.0 ... 09 Jan .................-1.0 on 22 Nov 1827 & 9 Jan 1828 1829 ... 19.0 ... 03 June .................. -4.8.... 23 Jan ................ -4.8 on 23 Jan 1829 1830 ... 22.5 ... 30 July .................... -6.7 ... 24 Dec ................ -6.4 on 6 Feb 1830 1831 ... 20.2 ... 09 July .................... -3.0 ... 30 Jan ................. -6.7 on 24 Dec 1830 1832 ... 19.9 ... 10 Aug .................... -1.9 ... 01 Jan ................ -1.9 on 01 Jan 1832 1833 ... 20.0 ... 15 May & 28 July ..... -2.6 ... 23 Jan ............... -2.6 on 23 Jan 1833 1834 ... 22.3 ... 17 July .................... +0.4 ... 08 Feb ............... +0.4 on 8 Feb 1834 1835 ... 20.7 ... 10 & 11 Aug ............ -5.2 ... 07 Jan ................ -5.2 on 7 Jan 1835 1836 ... 22.1 ... 05 July .................... -3.5 ... 02 Jan ................ -3.5 on 2 Jan 1836 1837 ... 21.2 ... 27 July .................... -3.3 ... 01 Jan ................ -3.3 on 1 Jan 1837 1838 ... 20.3 ... 13 July .................. -11.9 ... 20 Jan ............. -11.9 on 20 Jan 1838 1839 ... 18.9 ... 03 Aug .................... -3.0 ... 30 Jan .................-3.0 on 30 Jan 1839 1840 ... 19.6 ... 06 Aug ................... -4.4 ... 25 Dec ................ -4.1 on 07 Jan 1840 1841 ... 18.8 ... 27 Aug .................... -9.2 ... 08 Jan ................ -9.2 on 8 Jan 1841 1842 ... 21.9 ... 10 Aug .................... -1.8 ... 09 Jan ................ -2.7 on 18 Dec 1841 1843 ... 20.4 ... 05 July .................... -3.5 ... 15 Feb ............... -3.5 on 15 Feb 1843 1844 ... 21.6 ... 23 June ................... -5.5 ... 06 Dec ............... -3.1 on 13 Feb 1844 1845 ... 19.6 ... 15 June ................... -7.7 ... 12 Feb ............... -7.7 on 12 Feb 1845 1846 ... 22.0 ... 22 June ................... -4.2 ... 14 & 15 Dec ....... -0.3 on 13 Dec 1845, 5 Jan 1846 1847 ... 22.5 ... 14 July .................... -5.0 ... 09 Feb ................ -5.0 on 9 Feb 1847 1848 ... 20.5 ... 06 July .................... -4.4 ... 28 Jan ................. -4.4 on 28 Jan 1848 1849 ... 19.0 ... 07 Aug .................... -3.8 ... 02 Jan & 28 Dec...-3.8 on 2 Jan 1849 1850 ... 21.3 ... 15 July .................... -2.8 ... 07 Jan ................. -3.8 on 28 Dec 1849 1851 ... 20.3 ... 27 June .................. -0.4 ... 30 Nov ................ -0.2 on 24 Jan 1851 1852 ... 24.0 ... 05 July .................... -0.5 ... 20 Feb ............... -0.5 on 20 Feb 1852 1853 ... 18.8 ... 07 July .................... -5.0 ... 28 Dec ............... -3.2 on 13 Feb 1853 1854 ... 21.2 ... 24 July .................... -4.6 ... 02 Jan ................ -5.0 on 28 Dec 1853 1855 ... 20.3 ... 23 July .................... -7.3 ... 16 Feb ............... -7.3 on 16 Feb 1855 1856 ... 22.2 ... 02 Aug .................... -3.0 ... 28 Dec ............... -4.7 on 21 Dec 1855 1857 ... 21.1 ... 28 June & 23 Aug ....-3.0 ... 29 Jan ................ -3.0 on 28 Dec 1856 & 29 Jan 1857 1858 ... 22.9 ... 15 June .................. -4.2 ... 23 Nov ................ -2.0 on 10 Mar 1858 1859 ... 22.2 ... 18 July .................... -7.7 ... 17 Dec ................-4.2 on 23 Nov 1858 1860 ... 17.2 ... 05 July .................... -3.9 ... 13 Feb ............... -7.7 on 17 Dec 1859 1861 ... 19.6 ... 12 Aug .................... -3.4 ... 29 Dec ............... -3.7 on 20 & 27 Dec 1860 1862 ... 17.3 ... 01 Aug .................... -2.6 ... 18 Jan ................ -3.4 on 29 Dec 1861 1863 ... 19.5 ... 07 Aug .................... +0.9 ... 11 Jan .............. -1.1 on 13 Nov 1862 1864 ... 19.7 ... 30 Aug .................... -6.2 ... 06 Jan ................ -6.2 on 6 Jan 1864 1865 ... 19.9 ... 04 & 24 July ............ -6.1 ... 28 Jan ................ -6.1 on 28 Jan 1865 1866 ... 20.6 ... 12 July .................... -3.2 ... 28 Feb ............... -3.2 on 28 Feb 1866 1867 ... 20.4 ... 13 Aug .................... -9.3 ... 04 Jan ................ -9.3 on 4 Jan 1867 1868 ... 23.2 ... 22 July .................... -1.4 ... 01 & 02 Jan ........ -1.4 on 1 & 2 Jan 1868 1869 ... 21.9 ... 17 July .................... -2.7 ... 28 Dec .................-0.7 on 24 Jan 1869 1870 ... 21.4 ... 08 July .................... -6.9 ... 24 Dec ................ -3.2 on 26 Jan & 11 Feb 1870 1871 ... 21.6 ... 13 Aug .................... -3.6 ... 01 Jan ................ -6.9 on 24 Dec 1870 1872 ... 22.0 ... 25 July ................... +0.7 ... 21 Mar & 11 Dec . -2.3 on 8 Dec 1871 1873 ... 22.3 ... 22 July .................... -2.9 ... 10 & 11 Dec ....... -1.5 on 1 Feb 1873 1874 ... 21.4 ... 09 July .................... -5.5 ... 22 Dec ................ -2.9 on 10 & 11 Dec 1873 1875 ... 19.2 ... 08 Aug .................... -1.7 ... 05 Dec ................ -5.5 on 22 Dec 1874 1876 ... 22.4 ... 17 Aug .................... -3.3 ... 11 Feb ............... -3.3 on 11 Feb 1876 1877 ... 19.6 ... 20 Aug .................... -1.0 ... 28 Feb ................ -1.0 on 28 Feb 1877 1878 ... 22.9 ... 20 July .................... -5.8 ... 25 Dec ................ +0.4 on 27 Dec 1877 1879 ... 18.4 ... 12 Aug .................... -5.7 ... 07 Dec .................-5.8 on 25 Dec 1878 1880 ... 20.7 ... 04 Sep .................... -4.3 ... 20 Jan ................. -5.7 on 07 Dec 1879 1881 ... 21.9 ... 05 July .................... -8.1 ... 21 Jan ................ -8.1 on 21 Jan 1881 1882 ... 18.6 ... 13 Aug .................... -3.7 ... 11 Dec ............... -1.0 on 10 Dec 1881 1883 ... 19.0 ... 30 June .................. -2.4 ... 10 Mar ............... -3.7 on 11 Dec 1882 1884 ... 22.5 ... 11 Aug .................... -1.1 ... 23 Dec ................ -0.1 on 7 Dec 1883 1885 ... 21.1 ... 26 July .................... -2.1 ... 08 Dec ................ -1.1 on 23 Dec 1884 1886 ... 20.7 ... 04 July .................... -3.3 ... 20 Dec ............... -2.7 on 7 Jan 1886 1887 ... 20.6 ... 06 Aug .................... -3.9 ... 01 Jan ................ -3.9 on 01 Jan 1887 1888 ... 19.6 ... 10 Aug .................... -1.8 ... 25 Feb ............... -2.3 on 27 Dec 1887 1889 ... 19.2 ... 12 Sep .................... -2.7 ... 10 Feb ................-2.7 on 10 Feb 1889 1890 ... 18.2 ... 05 Aug .................... -6.8 ... 22 Dec ................ -2.0 on 3 Mar 1890 1891 ... 18.8 ... 25 June ................... -6.1 ... 18 Jan ................ -6.8 on 22 Dec 1890 1892 ... 19.4 ... 03 July .................... -5.0 ... 28 Dec ............... -4.9 on 24 Dec 1891 1893 ... 22.6 ... 18 Aug .................... -5.0 ... 05 Jan ................ -5.0 on 28 Dec 1892 & 5 Jan 1893 1894 ... 20.1 ... 01 July .................... -6.9 ... 06 Jan ................ -6.9 on 6 Jan 1894 1895 ... 20.0 ... 26 June ................... -8.3 ... 08 Feb ............... -8.3 on 8 Feb 1895 1896 ... 20.7 ... 16 June ................... -0.9 ... 21 Jan & 30 Nov.. -0.9 on 21 Jan 1896 1897 ... 22.2 ... 05 Aug .................... -2.8 ... 23 Dec ................ -2.2 on 23 Jan 1897 1898 ... 21.3 ... 08 Sep ................... +0.2 ... 21 Feb ................ -2.8 on 23 Dec 1897 1899 ... 21.1 ... 20 July .................... -4.8 ... 14 Dec ............... -1.6 on 21 Mar 1899 1900 ... 22.0 ... 20 July .................... -3.4 ... 08 Feb ............... -4.8 on 14 Dec 1899 _______________________________________________________ * worth noting that 18.4 on 19 May 1809 was just 0.1 below the annual max. ** the winter of 1786-87 has incomplete daily data; December dates are all listed as 2.8 which is the monthly mean but it's unlikely that this was the case, probably some day reached a value below the -0.5 C recorded in Nov 1786 and Jan 1787, a good estimate from the mean would be -3.5 C.

New daily CEP records for 10 and 12 June include the second wettest June day (since 1931) on 10th (32.4 mm). Only 19 June 1973 was wetter at 35.6 mm. Also, the ten intervals from 1-10 June to 10-19 June 2019 were wettest ten day intervals and the wettest of them (92.5 mm for 4-13 June) was the highest ten-day total at any point in the year except for 11-20 and 12-21 Dec 1989.

EWP tracker only 1 mm to 6th, probably not much added since then, and 10-15 mm on average predicted next ten days. The GFS 11-16 day maps look wetter. If you're interested in how a relatively dry 50 mm outcome would affect your scoring this is the July update using that provisional. Just speculation at this point though. EWP20182019July.xlsx

Here's an arcane stat for you, the last time August was warmest month of the summer four or more times in a row was 1913 to 1916. None of them were particularly warm but July failed rather consistently in that interval.