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chris55

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    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    I’m liking the fact the low has moved south into France end of week. 
     

    The result is a good feed of low 850s across pretty much all parts with lower dew points. That will feel more wintry, along with a high chance of some showers or troughs moving in the flow.

    Also allows the colder air to become a little  more established for any potential ‘slider’ to actually deliver snowfall, as opposed to sleety rain or wet damp cold stuff that was being predicted for Thursday Friday.

    Interesting start to winter for sure, nice to be back viewing the charts and having lots to discuss.

    Here’s to a great winter ahead 🙂 

     

     

    • Like 20

    South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion

    in SW and CS England Weather Discussion

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, SilverWolf said:

    Any chance the precip will pick up after it leaves Ireland? No clue as to what the sea will do to it… 

    Anyone’s guess I’m thinking. A case of waiting and seeing. I’ve seen plenty of surprises in these kind of situations for our area. 
     

    I think some of the short range models are giving a few cms over the higher ground so have to be in with a chance 🙂 

     

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    South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion

    in SW and CS England Weather Discussion

    Posted

    38 minutes ago, SilverWolf said:

    My extremely rose tinted look at much later tonight and early (perhaps with a dose of IMBY). 
    The low pressure is further south than predicted right now. It’s showing sleet/snow (admittedly high ground) in SW Ireland, and as the crow flies about 50 miles NW of me currently. Every time we get a heavy shower here the temp drops rapidly (it’s all rain atm), and does recover a bit after - beet scientific observation from ‘stepping outside’. IF the low sinks south east as it passes much later tonight, temp will prob drop sharply and quickly. Could be snow, at least over high ground, but not exclusively. 
     

    My realistic take is that the temp drop will happen, but there may not be much precip left in the system - so perhaps a dusting over higher ground first thing tomorrow. 
     

    See what occurs! 

     

    I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see at least some falling snow and possible accumulations in Gloucestershire early hours tomorrow. As that cold air digs south, we look to be right in the centre of the pivot.

     

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    Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    58 minutes ago, Mucka said:

    Perhaps it is a good thing to have such a relatively poor run dampen our enthusiasm. It is easy to get carried away seeing snowy chart after snowy chart while forgetting this is the UK we are talking about!

    Let's take a breath, enjoy GFS pub run fun, and get ready to ramp tomorrow when ECM has taken the smelling salts. 

    If by small chance it is right with such a rapid breakdown then let's hope the details change in between to better potential for more snow showers and a snowier more prolonged breakdown.

    I could live with that.

    It’s that balance of the cold air vs the mild push, i personally would like to see one of these battleground scenarios actually come off. To often this winter ( every time)  the Atlantic has pushed to far south and left us dry and cold. 
     

    Hopefully EC is on the extreme side of the northerly extent of the Atlantic air. UKMO is a little too south. 
     

    Usually these kind of charts settle in the middle….and I have a funny feeling this final ‘battleground’ of the season may actually deliver somewhere in the middle of the U.K.

     

     

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    Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, nick sussex said:

    Oh dear what happened to the UKMO.

    A very poor day 7 chart and the writing was on the wall at day 6 . Low heights to the ne phase with the Atlantic low .

    No disruption at day 6 is the issue here .

    A real mood sourer after the good GFS and GEM outputs .

    Its questionable whether it would be able to eject the shortwave cleanly at day 7 into 8 although there is a pocket of heights to the north .

    Depends what gets you in a ‘sour mood!’

    more analysis please Nick, less hyperbole 👍🏻

    As I said before,  at this time of year many are enjoying the lighter evenings and the warm sun on our faces when the wind is light. 
     

    This spell looks primed to produce some March snowfall (for some) with the milder Atlantic set to push in against the cold air. Beyond that hopefully we can get ready for spring 🙂

    • Like 5
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    Model Output Discussion - Into February

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    55 minutes ago, chris78 said:

    Hi all, a request from a lurker.  Can you specify what you mean by a run being better, or more favourable etc.  I think from Nov to Feb it's probably pretty clear that the vast majority are looking for cold.  But by mid March it's the last thing a lot of us want, so 'better' or 'upgrade', doesn't really mean anything.

    Better or more favourable means colder and potentially frostier and snowier. Until we get to may this thread will be looking for the white stuff 🙂

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