[Model Output Discussion - Deeper into Autumn]

EC 216 

looks loaded…..cold tap available. Blocking insane! Slow burner. Many many more runs needed though

[Model Output Discussion - Deeper into Autumn]

2 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Disagree mate...im pointing out that the number of ens heading this way is increasing and this can at times be a pointer to a major shift in pattern. If there were only a couple or so among the 30 I wouldn't even be posting em,but there's a good chunk of em highlighting this possibility. We have witnessed before gfs ens hinting at long range of something special...think the record Heat a few months back..some of the ens nailed that pattern very well.

Not to say this will be correct but the signs are there for sure.

Hence I said the overall trend is sound  just cherry picking ensemble charts will only result in people saying the models are ‘rubbish’ if they don’t come off, which they won’t specifically (individual members) 

[Model Output Discussion - Deeper into Autumn]

11 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Make of it what you will

That south east flow deffo on the cards, hopefully a slow burner as I mentioned before…. This much blocking will through the models into meltdown imo

[Model Output Discussion - Deeper into Autumn]

1 minute ago, MATTWOLVES said:

In the words of Bernard Matthews as he eyed up another turkey...(ruddy beautiful  

These are some of the best end I've seen for quite some time and i have only viewed half of them!

Personally I think we are on the cusp of something developing in the coming couple of weeks...and I feel Exeter know this but are playing it on the side of caution...they have had there fingers burned a few times over the last few years with over committing on cold snaps!  But I think what Marco p said the other day regarding interesting watching of the models coming up in the days ahead speaks volumes.

So for me it's England to beat USA in the football then we Rob em of some serious Winter cold in the weeks ahead...theres my thoughts and I will be putting it in my letter to santa very shortly

Drink eat and be merry gang it could be coming home sooner than you realise.

Matt, these are GFS ensemble members at day 10+ like 240-340 hours! 
 

They look pretty (and the overall trend is sound) but individually they are pretty meaningless regarding the forecast? Yea? Or no?

[Model Output Discussion - Deeper into Autumn]

1 hour ago, ICE COLD said:

UKMO T168 =

UKMO at 168 looks good. A more robust long wave pattern. Cool/cold at the surface, and within the reasonable reach of the operation run. 
 

 

[Model Output Discussion - Deeper into Autumn]

56 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Crikey..

It’s GFS operational at +318 hours! Does it mean something or just eye candy? 
 

The trend is positive though  

 

[Model Output Discussion - Deeper into Autumn]

9 minutes ago, Scandinavian High. said:

Exeter don’t seem that interested or are they holding fire.

To be fair the initial block could well drag up some milder southeasterly air rather than tapping into the colder air. All depends on the position of the block and how far in the Atlantic lows make it. 
 

I think the block will be more of a slow burner. Initially just settling things down. It’s the progression from there that we need to keep an eye on. 

[Model Output Discussion - Deeper into Autumn]

Nice to see the forum getting busier with a more blocked pattern upcoming.

Looking forward to following all the dramas in the weeks and months ahead

Hopefully some snowfalls and ice days incoming. Sales of heated blankets will be through the roof! I’ve got mine ready .

 

[Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into February]

Track/intensity of Eunice…..

ECM trending south. Icon very south. GFS as previous.

Where the wind blows and the snow falls is all down to how Eunice develops. 

Northen England/southern Scotland most likely to see snowfall with Wales/South west most likely to see the strongest winds, but with a more southerly track that changes. More runs needed. 

[Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into February]

1 hour ago, Ali1977 said:

GFS sticks with the track towards north England meaning the south still get hit by storms, the wrap round may still bring some back edge snow for some who get rain earlier in the day. 

Icon looks great for the south midlands 

 

As does the control 

 

 

And lastly the mean for Friday evening suggest snow chance for many, although muted by many different outcomes so can’t take the wide area as “snowing”!! 

 

All down to how much this low spins up, the more it ‘bombs’ the further north it will track. 

Icon and control modelling a weaker low hence it’s northern edge and associated snow risk are further south and those damaging winds are less of a worry. 
 

You’d have to say UKMO and GFS op are more likely to be correct but still time for adjustments from the main models.
 

 

[Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into February]

Control takes the low Friday into the channel, unlikely but highlights the possibility some in the south could still be in with a chance! The Cotswolds would get an absolute pasting if this track verified.

[Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into February]

Cold sunny and frosty from the UKMO once the cold front clears south on Wednesday into Thursday.

Should feel pleasant by day with some hard frosts by night. 

[Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into February]

33 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Oh wow - I'm so excited today ... no, not because of a snowstorm incoming, but because I've just realized UKMO on Meteociel now goes out to T168, and the ECM is viewable in 3 hour intervals. I feel like it's Christmas!! (Have I've been missing this for weeks?)

Hey MWB where are you getting that 168 UKMO on Meteo? Mine only goes to 144.

[Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into February]

Some unusually cold air crossing the North Atlantic associated with the high exiting North America. The cold air over the U.K. has actually come from the west at day 7. If only we could get some more amplification as the ridge moves in.

[Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into February]

Some potential at 168 on the GfS 6z.

Gets rolled over later though.

 

[Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into February]

I can but dream..

 

[Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into February]

8 hours ago, chris55 said:

That high pressure cell moving out of east Canada around day 7 hinting at a pattern ‘disturbance’ of sorts. Been showing on ecm and gfs for a few days in different forms. Forcing lows south.
 

Something to watch.

That ridge and Atlantic low interaction once again pushing the long wave set up in a more interesting direction on the 12z…

[Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into February]

That high pressure cell moving out of east Canada around day 7 hinting at a pattern ‘disturbance’ of sorts. Been showing on ecm and gfs for a few days in different forms. Forcing lows south.
 

Something to watch.

[Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into February]

Slightly unusual 12z ECM with the low moving towards the Azores, and the ridge to the north. Scotland in the colder air. 

[Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January]

Can someone pass the sick bucket…

 

Im normally very much glass half full when viewing the models, but unless we get a change in the next week or two I’m thinking this could be the first winter without even a flake of snow in my location for as long as I can remember. 
 

We need a rabbit out the hat moment. 
 

[Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January]

ECM ensemble spaghetti now available on Wetter which is nice.

[Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January]

Certainly signs of something a little more interesting in the runs today.  
 

A clear dip in 850s with the troughs moving into scandi pulling down some colder air around 4th Feb onwards.

850s London 6z.
 

 

 

[Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January]

UKMO 12z best for a while

Some very cold air bottled up to the north!

If only the ridge could gain some traction and build north we’d be in business. No VWAA though so would likely topple at 192. 

[Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January]

21 minutes ago, johncam said:

Hi Chris , the problem is its the GFS so chances of coming off are slim to none 

Just discussing the output  not to say it will verify. 

[Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January]

15 minutes ago, Staffmoorlands said:

For record maxes? 

No I wasn’t referring to the milder flow on that chart date, but the potential for an easterly to form afterwards.

A southerly feed directly to the west of the U.K. reaching up to the higher latitudes -caused by blocking high pressure over the U.K. -  can be a precursor to an easterly.

Admittedly, that chart isn’t the best example, with the WAA being cut off. However I did say potential. 
 

here is an example of what I was getting at (as you full well knew)

 

These archive charts are 4 days apart.