JRMcLeod
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Posts posted by JRMcLeod
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From what i can find online, the highest temperature recorded in Aberdeen in September is 24oC. Currently 26oC at Dyce according to NW and XC Weather. Wonder if there will be a run on it in the MSM?
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Im no expert but thought i'd share my projections for thie evening. Whatever happens, i hope those of you that want a storm see one and those of you that don't want one sleep through it.
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http://www.blitzortung.org/Webpages/index.php?lang=en
Most active storm in the world? Well that's easy.. It's sitting of the coast of Kent.. Where else would it be? LMFAO
Erm. Think the one off the east coast of the US is more active. Besides, Africa, SE Asia and South America are not included and from experience, Central West Africa has storms pretty much constantly.
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Well i have to say what a fantastic strom last night here in Aberdeen. Started at around 145am, tracked up the coast. Peaked at around 230am. I am presuming it was an elevated storm (supercell) as there was a lot of lightning above but very little serious thunder. The storm seemd to come in bursts, 3-4 strikes in quick succession then a break for about a minute then repeat. I did however see my first twin fork lightning hit the ground. The rain and hail came on and wind picked up a lot. I have had the pleasure of travelling often to West Africa and the Gulf of Mexico and this storm last night was very similar in nature. Thought it would be cooler today but its very humid now and muggy.
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Can anyone give a decent update on forecast for tonight? Particularly for Scotland (East Coast)? Would be much appreciated.
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London Heathrow - No
Belfast - No
Cork - No
Aberdeen - Yes
Edinburgh - No
Liverpool - No
Manchester - No
Cardiff - No
Norwich - No
Newcastle - No
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How can you tell the difference between a +/- strike.....?
I once read somewhere that + lightning is Pink in colour and far more dangerous. - lightning is yellow or blue in colour and more common.
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Captured a Funnel Cloud approx 30 minutes ago over Aberdeen...No thunder though
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I have to admit whilst the scorching heat is fun and all, this set-up offers a lot more fun and games, plenty of thundery activity through home-grown storms and potential activity moving north from France. Add to that it's still warm or very warm countrywide. Pretty darn good summer weather.
Oh and may some of those insane plume charts verify for next week
I respect what TEITS says above and i can completely understand what he is getting at. Instinct is very important in forecasting, IMO.
I have said for quite a few weeks now that i just cant see this warmth shifting, irrespective of model output. I think the general pattern is changing, but all we are really doing is replacing hot and dry with warm, humid and wet. I personally prefer the warm and wet because with that we have potential for fun!!! If these charts verify...which i pray...we could very well be experiencing one of the more notable summers in many of the active members lives on here (lets remember many people didnt experince the 80's or even the early 90's). The glorious weather for the past month, coupled with a good few weeks of warm humid thundery weather...what else could we ask for???
Except of course a cold snowy winter from November through to February!
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I have learnt a quite lot since coming here in '05, prior to that just an avid interest in the weather but no understanding how it 'ticks'. Still have no idea when it comes to some of the things that Chio/GP come out with, as that is Physics in the highest in my eyes, but certainly its a great place to learn from people like yourself, just reading post and looking at links, id be prety sure 99% are the same
, shouldnt be embarresed of your knowledge John, i dont tend to post alot because i fear looking daft lol Just to add in here, i NEVER get my forecasts from the MSM anymore, if i want to see whats happening or due to happen, i come in here and read what the knowledgable posters put up...then i spread the word.
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I think people on here need to take what is forecast with a glimmer of hope and with a pinch of salt. There will definately be heavy rain, that is a given. The thunder and lightning aspect may not be totally widespread and severe as the MetO think, but i GUARANTEE there will be embedded storms within that rain, i would say more towards coasts.
Last night, here in Aberdeenshire, i went to bed at 11pm, thought i heard distant thunder but shrugged it off. I then realised it was thunder as i heard it again. By 1130pm, i was in the car on the dual carriageway under about 1/2 foot of rain and CG lightning, turning the carriage way lights off (daylight sensors). In total we had about 20 strikes over 30 minutes then BOOM...GONE!
The moral of the story is that this storm popped up out of nothing, with no cape forcast for the area. If you have warm air coming up from France, with storms and very heavy rain, you can be damn sure there will be lightning for some...sometimes, it just happens no matter how much you stare at the computer screen or look out the window. I will look froward to the new thread on Sunday with all the storm reports!
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I'm just curious, but what with all the talk about the Atlantic taking charge next week, and HP to the south of the UK, can any member tell me what exactly in the Atlantic is going to take charge of our weather. As far as i can see, its quiet and not a lot happening at all.
Is it not possible that once this current LP shifts the HP will re-establish itself? Maybe i am on the complete wrong track but i'm just not seeing a firm breakdown to this warmth...maybe cloudier and a bit less stable but nothing to write home about. I'd expect 22-24 quite widely which is a good summers day in previous years (we shouldnt compare it to our Florida style heatwave of late).
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Can finally come out of the NSC. First storm was at 2am with torrential rain, then at 5am with torrential rain then at 6am (best one, with pink lightning) then again at 730am. All in all a good early morning wake up call.
Looks like more potential today, it feels warmer and more humid, lets hope the sun breaks out and helps it all along...here's hoping!
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Looking on Sat24 (infrared), The storms in France an hour ago were pretty much dissipated, only this past hour have they began to form again with some vigour. They are on a northerly track, if they continue i wouldnt be surprised to see them make it across the channel and clip onto the south east coast.
Wondering if something may also be brewing off of the SW coast of Wales/England, tracking NE.
Thoughts?
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Brickfielder, thanks fo rthe reply.
Can i ask what time spans you are thinking? Are we going to see intensification continue through the night like last night?
Are we expecting convection to begin off of the SW of England and increase as the airmass moves NNE?
Just trying to get a grasp on the source and potential pattern of movement...
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Only thing confirmed is the storms continuing into the afternoon for the north east. I dont expect storms into the night for most areas (possible for some eastern areas), but think there is a low chance (25%) of some home grown storms developing along the south coast during the afternoon, which might drift as far as the midlands before decaying. Give it an hour though and I might change my mind again as satelitte picture show different developments.
Humfff...so another great spell missed by us! I'll close the door behind me on my way over to the NSC...
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I think the models are a little behind actual events at the moment so its hard to predict much for the rest of the day. Storms for the North East and eastern parts look likely to arrive late afternoon rather than early evening. Elsewhere and storms over northern France have complicated matters somewhat.
Best guess of places to watch over the next few hours based on Eumetsat images would be the following.
There are no guarantees on this and its a changing situation, but ahead of vorticity advection can be a good place for convection to initiate providing temperatures and dew points are high enough.
Brickfielder, thanks fo rthe reply.
Can i ask what time spans you are thinking? Are we going to see intensification continue through the night like last night?
Are we expecting convection to begin off of the SW of England and increase as the airmass moves NNE?
Just trying to get a grasp on the source and potential pattern of movement...
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I am getting confused with all the differing remarks and Sat images. Skywarn, ESTOFEX and TORRO all have re-intensification of storms in the afternoon and evening, moving NE across the UK. Sat images are not showing much to the S and SW...so where is intensification coming from?
Members in here as pushing to say its all over...others are saying there is still the rest of the day to go.
Can a member with knowledge please summerise the prospects for the whole of the UK from this afternoon onwards please?
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THIS IS RIDICULOUS...(caps intentional)
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INCREASING MID LEVEL WINDSPEEDS MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR MORE ORGANISED AND SUSTAINED STORMS. AS SUCH, MODERATE HAIL SIZES AND STRONG GUSTS ARE A POSSIBILITY FOR ALL AREAS, ESPECIALLY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS EASTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS.
I can but hope.....
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It is sooooo typical. Here in Aberdeen, i have been watching the line of storms moving up the East coast. As it approaches me, the rain fizzles out and the lightning stops.
Reading the TORRO and ESTOFEX warnings, i was hopeful for some storms this afternoon and evening but it is looking less and less likely as the day goes on. I cant see that there will be enough energy to develop more down south for us to be in with a chance.
Looks like i will need to wait another year to witness lightning here in Aberdeen.
I think thats going on nearly 2 years now!!!
Just as well i travel to Nigeria and Cameroon annually for my Thunder fix...
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Whats stranger is that the earth is actually closer to the Sun in winter than in summer...
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I'm not an expert, and i tend to follow a few regular posters comments on here but given the recent warm spell, and based on the uncertainty in the models, even at the short range, i am more inclined to lean towards this warm spell re-asserting itself after a mid week blip. I cant help but think the models want the "default" weather back to our shores...but i just can't see that happening yet. I would love to think we will have UK wide storms and potential but i cant see it. Maybe the South West and South Wales but other than that i dont see widespread storms.
I cant seem to shake the feeling that this warm spell of calm weather will be with us until at least August, even (dare i say it) beyond that. The Atlantic is so quite i just cant see anything changing it. Until i see something "striking" i dont think HP will be far from UK shores at all.
Maybe i'm wrong and clutching at straws but thats how i see it playing out! Fingers Crossed!
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The way you Scots are going, Scotland won't be in the UK by next year
Yippee, but that conversation is for another day.
Looking good for NW England. Sat24 is showing signs of some pretty quick cloud growth.
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BBC forecast map showing MCS moving up Tuesday night clobbering the South East, East Anglia. Central S England and East Midlands will probably cop for it too.
EDIT: More like the whole UK
everywhere up to Tyneside will be kept awake by the looks of it!!!Things looking very interesting as it stands
Can i remind you that the "whole of the UK" doesnt extend from Tyneside south. Almost half of the UK is north of here!!!
Back on topic. I can see good storm potential for next week but as per the normal, the north misses out and instead i get to read all the southeners posts on how fantastic it is!!!
, shouldnt be embarresed of your knowledge John, i dont tend to post alot because i fear looking daft lol 
everywhere up to Tyneside will be kept awake by the looks of it!!!
Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
I know slightly off topic but worth putting it into the discussion. If you check the Met Office monthly summaries for 1962/3, you can clearly see that the Aurora was visible in Scotland approx 15 days each month. I have seen it twice and i live in Scotland and i am 33.
The discussion above is about the Suns possible interaction...
What are the general view points on sun activity? Would it be safe to say that the more active the sun, the possibility of colder weather increases as per the monthly summaries?
Met Office Monthly Summaries 1960's