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JRMcLeod

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    Scotland - Regional Discussion - New Year

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Blitzen

    You know when i looked at those charts it reminded me of how mild it was that previous december (83) did the temps not reach a warm phase too - just like this Christmas?

    Also Jan 84 was very snowy we had snow lying for 20days in that January. You may well be on to something. - Shame we can't see the NH charts for then.

    Can you maybe elaborate for me? What is different today compared to 83? How can 2 differnet years with very similar models outputs be so different? The charts look remarkably similar but i just can't see how its possible for January to be very snowy...

    This whole weather thing is a nightmare...

    Model Output Discussion - 12th December Onward

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Morning all,

    Models continuing to show us cold fans what we don't want to see(average/mild synoptics).We shouldn't be surprised though stratosphere still anomolously cold,polar vortex still strong,+NAO,+AO.

    The odd NW incursion probably the best we can expect until we see some significant change(if we ever do).

    Maybe i'm not seeing or understanding the weather charts like some of the more knowledgable on here but it appears from the GFS and UKMO that we could have N/NW on or around 23rd, 26th and 27th. That too me, signifys a far larger possibility of cold polar air around Christmas and a far greater possibility of snow on the big day than what was being modelled this time last week. We seem to be forgetting that even at this range Christmas is still in FI but i am encouraged by the models from 23rd to 28th December. All we need now is timing...

    Why is everyone so downbeat about a possible good model run? Am i missing something?

    Model Output Discussion - 12th December Onward

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by yeahbabyyeah

    Hey All,

    Looking at the model output this morning (GFS), especially into FI as i'm praying "Santa can get some snow for his sleigh", the Azores high takes quite a strong hold over the UK. Looking at the animation through time, we see 3 pretty deep LP's basically bounce off of it and push north over Iceland and through to Scandi without touching the UK at all.

    Now i know its FI (cant stress that enough) but what is the main factor at play here that is preventing a pretty active Atlantic pushing these LP's over the UK? Is it a case of the Azores taking up the space left vacant from this Fridays LP which then becomes difficult for other LP's to displace?

    Can anyone explain in a bit more detail what would be required for the LP's to "barge" the Azores high out of the way?

    Scotland - Regional Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    I don't understand why the Met Office are forecasting snow down to 100m, it's going to be more like 400m going by the charts!! When the heavier precip moves in later the upper temps will rise I think it will be a rain and wind event for most!! Northern England will hold onto the cold uppers for a longer period!!!

    Will evaporative cooling not have an effect in the heavier showers? Maybe this is why?

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