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JRMcLeod

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Posts posted by JRMcLeod

  1. Nick Miller on the BBC Radio 4 weather this morning mentioned a possibility of a thunderstorm in Aberdeenshire today?

     

    Can't really see it myself, but he has more knowledge and resources than us!

     

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    Nothing from ESTOFEX or UKASF so maybe something local forcing things?

     

    CAPE is marginal:

     

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    and not in Scotland:

     

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    Lots of convergence though:

     

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    Lapse rates are slightly up on the NE coast:

     

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    One to keep half an eye on, but don't get too excited yet!

     

    I would have to say that there is a decidedly different feel about the weather today here in Aberdeenshire.  It was raining in the early hours this morning and the humidity has increased a lot since yesterday.  On the drive to work at 0830 it was 20oC and my minimum last night was 17oC (according to my garden station).  I think today is meant to hit 25oC here.  The clouds are quite bubbly, looks like there is a chance.  Its one of those days where it just "feels and looks" like there could be a storm later.  I know that sounds silly but thats how it feels.

     

    Will keep my fingers crossed!

  2. It all depends when/where the showers set-up. If you get hit by a streamer then you could get a good bit of snow. Watch the radar and keep your fingers crossed. The North Sea is already speckled with showers, although I'm not sure how long the convection will last as the front approaches from the SW. Anywhere within the Met-O yellow warning area should see something, a select few areas could get a good dump from a streamer.

    The NMM is quite promising for precip, all of this in the east of Scotland would be from showers:

    post-2844-0-94799100-1363874962_thumb.pn

    post-2844-0-30505900-1363874987_thumb.pn

    Edit: Apart from the immediate coast that would all be snow.

    I would have to disagree with your EDIT part. For the past 3/4 days all showers right here on the east coast have been snow and i personally dont see that changing anytime soon. Every morning i have awoken to a fresh dusting. Even the showers throughout the day (and Aberdeen has seen a lot) have been of snow or hail. I'm feeling confident that we will have a good amount of showers packing in and i have a feeling the front will actually get further north than forecast.

    Just my thoughts smile.png

  3. I dont have a whole lot of confidence in the Met-O's 5 day forecast.

    Good example being my parents house in Rickarton. They are around 200m above sea-level, 8 miles from the coast and they are predicted for rain this weekend.

    I think they tend to generalise things a bit too much.

    I know from many years of living here that if we get an easterly, we get snow. Thats pretty much the rule for Aberdeenshire. Its not very often that a northerly or eastelry doesnt deliver here.

  4. Maybe its just me but some of the Model charts are showing a 2m temp of 3 degrees for Aberdeenshire as a minimum on Sat night. That cant be right surely...

    I am totally at a loss as to what to expect in term sof snow potential for teh East of Scotland. I was under the impression just 24 hours ago that we had good potential but no i am lost...

    Anyone have any words of wisdom?

  5. Well the past couple of morning have had a very slight touch of frost on the car (barr this morning), and some slight ice on Loriston Loch in Aberdeen. Its certainly Autumn now, its a pity really as i still have a couple of weeks left to finish my garden...was really really hoping to get it done before the misery arrived...

  6. Maybe i'm looking in all the wrong places or totally misunderstanding the dynamics here but i'm struggling to see how this is going to be a significant SE area event. I'm no expert...far from it but i'm not seeing that front pass much further than central England before it fizzles out and stalls. If i were a betting man i'd say the midlands, NE England, SE/E Scotland would be in line for a decent show...just my thoughts tho :)

  7. Does anyone happen to know a good website, or a fairly reliable forecast for wind and mountain snow for Sat and Sun?

    Need to see if its likely to be windy or not and cold to prevent melt.

    I'm taking my 3 year old up skiing for the first time so would like to know what the chances are of Glenshee actually opening at the weekend...

    Any info would be great :good:

  8. Just been to the parents between Stonehaven and Banchory and they have about an inch of snow settled on the ground. Driven back to Portlethen to wet snow, quite heavy wet snow though.

    Temp 1.1oC

    Dew 1.1oC

    Feels Like -4.8oC

    Pressure 995.5mb

    Humidity 96%

    Wind Av 6.9mph, gusting 8.3mph

    Dew Point have steadily been rising whilst the temp slowly dropping throughout the day, now both steady (past 2 hours)

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