WelshSnowFan
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Posts posted by WelshSnowFan
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Never experienced storms before like those occurring in Swansea right now. Constant lightning. Constant thunder all merging into a continuous rumble....storm heading west over Llanelli now but another approaching from the east
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Saw this a couple of days ago from ECMWF........
Drop in aircraft observations could have impact on weather forecasts | ECMWF
WWW.ECMWF.INTOne aspect of the COVID-19 pandemic has been a reduction in the aircraft-based observations available to weather prediction centres at the...-
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17 minutes ago, WelshSnowFan said:
Just turned to snow. Ground and surfaces wet so will need intensity to pick up to have any chance of it settling...,,
.....and back to sleet. No surprises there....only hope is wind has just picked up....hope this the easterly element to the front cutting in....
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7 minutes ago, WelshSnowFan said:
Light sleet/rain in Ynysforgan. Not a good start but if I'm honest I didn't even expect to see sleet....
Just turned to snow. Ground and surfaces wet so will need intensity to pick up to have any chance of it settling...,,
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Light sleet/rain in Ynysforgan. Not a good start but if I'm honest I didn't even expect to see sleet....
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5 minutes ago, ancientsolar said:
anyone else have a guess ?Yep........it won't snow in Swansea (again)
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Looking at the radar,the Swansea snow shield is still fully functional. It will make an interesting research project for someone to explain how the snow missed Swansea. Its still doing it this morning. Ah well....always next year!!!!!!!
WelshSnowFan
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Totally underwhelming at the moment. Knew the writing was on the wall with "That White Space" on the forecast precipitation charts a day or so ago. Never mind...some lucky areas in Wales are seeing a great event unfold. My brothers village in Hampshire has been cut off since early evening....so, everywhere but the snow shield supremo known as Swansea.
Welsh(No)SnowFan
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36 minutes ago, Styx said:
Constitution Hill, Swansea?
No, that looks like its in Manselton, Swansea at the junction between Manor Road and Walter St.
WelshSnowFan
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1 hour ago, Ben Sainsbury said:
Crazy stuff in Bristol, was just sat at my desk and all of a sudden the chair I was sat in started shaking was crazy, truly indescribable feeling.
.....if that was crazy where you are....the epicentre was in Cwmllynfell approx 6-7 mile north of where I was sitting in my chair !!!
Some reports locally of very minor damage ie cracks in ceilings....can't imagine what being in a big one feels like!
WelshSnowFan
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Back to rain here now....
WelshSnowFan
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1 minute ago, Marcus_surfer said:
It was forecast to turn to snow on the mountains. Enough cold air has mixed along with Evaporational cooling coming into place nicely. Still snowing here and blowing in the strong wind
Yes, saw forecast for higher ground but not here! Still snowing here as well but I can see 2m temp creeping up slightly in last 10mins so its probably going to turn to sleet and then rain again soon. Nice surprise though
WelshSnowFan
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16 minutes ago, Marcus_surfer said:
Heavy wet snow in swansea, along with wind gusts in excess of 50mph . Temperature has dived from 6c to 1c
Confirm that heavy rain turned to heavy snow in about 30 mins. Heavy snow now in Ynysforgan, Swansea but not sticking. Where did this come from...certainly not part of any forecast I have seen
WelshSnowFan
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I may be wrong but the chart Steve originally posted was "wind-chill" ? - have a look in top left corner.
WelshSnowFan
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Lightening and Thunder in Swansea. Torrential rain in short bursts.
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Seriously it just is not . Not a single winter fly !
Heading back towards Sketty in half hour or so , suspect the front will move towards Morriston then and away from Sketty ! Lol
Right on the periphery , need to edge west a tad more
Point is Sketty IS to the west of Manselton....so it should be here now. Dont you just hate selective snowfall.
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snowing in dunvant
So... its snowing in Dunvant, snowing in Mumbles, snowing in Craig Cefn Parc, snowing in Sketty and probably snowing in tycoch (JackOne can you update please). .....even snowing in Bagan and Port talbot. I recon the council have spent all the monies building a snow shield from Morriston to Manselton. Bone dry here at the mo
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Snowing in CEfn park , snowing where Marcus is , snowing in Sketty ..... Nothing in Morriston cross area yet ! Sweet Jesus how am I missing it ?
Dont worry....its not snowing in Manselton either !
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Looks like the front has finally stalled in a line from Blackpool- Manchester - Nottingham down to London. is it forecast to sink back south-west ?
Stopped in Swansea now - melting already - temp 1 degree. Will it last until this evening ?
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Woken up at 2am by rain hammering on the bedroom window. Woke up again at 6am and looks like wet snow - no great depth Front does not look it will stall over South Wales?. Looks like it will clear in an hour or so looking at radar.
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easy, its a myth that snow doesn't stick on wet surfaces. Low DP's = drier snow, so even though it may take slightly longer, wet ground wont affect it too much, its ground temperature which will also drop when temp drops.
All- I respect and value your input - but weather history (some very tortured) confirms to me that for Swansea at 75m above seal level EVERYTHING has to be perfect for snow to settle. This observation dissappears as soon as you go inland any distance ie Pontardawe upwards
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Looking at the radar the heavier bursts currently further north than South Wales and more into Southern Ireland - am I missing something here or is the angle of attack taking a more northerly route? It looks like a narrower band initially and I have a funny feeling my curtains will be open to just an inch of snow and having to go to work in Cardiff all apologetic becasue they will blame me for the fact there is no snow.
JK
Looking at RainToday radar I get the same (horrible !!) feeling - looking at the radar it seems to be just off the Gower Coast - if this hits land in the next hour as likely then we will, with temps of +5 degrees only have rain. Should it turn to snow at 3am as stated elsewhere then I fear with 4+ hours of rain there is no way that snow will settle her. Hope I'm wrong big time but gut is telling me something is not correct. If the low dewpoints are on their way they are cutting it VERY fine to get here without missing the start of the party.
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866mm at Mumbles Weather Centre (Weatheronline) . It tends to be drier on the coast than inland, but my guess would be more for Tycoch than there,
71.50 Jan
40.00 Feb
19.70 Mar
79.20 Apr
58.60 May
150.60 June
127.40 July
100.00 August
42.00 Sept
88.00 Oct
89.00 Nov
But that doesn't include today.
Pembrey's figures are also on there, so I will double check both figures and post both later.
I
Looking at a station within Blackpill foreshore a slightly higer rainfall total than at Tutt head Mumbles
http://www.swansea.airqualitydata.com/cgi-bin/currentreadings.cgi?met&1009
We also have another station within Cwm Level Park within the Lower Swansea valley - shows the effect you mention - higher totals so far
http://www.swansea.airqualitydata.com/cgi-bin/currentreadings.cgi?met&1006
WelshSnowFan
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I was looking at the ECMWF ensembles on Meteociel, I know they are the De Bilt ones, but look at the temperatures being forecasted by both the Operational and the control run. Clearly some uncertainty with many of the ensembles going somewhat milder, but clearly no certainty in the end to the cold weather.
I can remember GP saying yesterday I think in the Model Technical Discussion thread, to expect model uncertainty during the next couple of days. Is this tying in with GP's thoughts as he has been on the money with his thoughts for several weeks now. Just a thought, not straw clutching
Just found it - GP's comments on the 8th Jan -"High chance that model performance will dip over the next few days."
WelshSnowFan (Swansea)
Early run up to Winter 2021/2022 discussion
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Yes we were....
From the Independent’s most cited article: Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past by Charles Onians:
However, the warming is so far manifesting itself more in winters which are less cold than in much hotter summers. According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia,within a few years winter snowfall will become “a very rare and exciting event”.
“Children just aren’t going to know what snow is,” he said.
It seems however, that after over 15 years, the Independent has removed that article, and the URL now comes up like this:
From Watts up with that article here .....read for full info on claim...