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Everything posted by Just Before Dawn
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Excellent late night last night - the period between 1:30am and 5am this morning saw us in Louth go from a light dusting of snow to about 4cm of lying snow this morning. Beautifully crip and clear today. Off out into the Wolds to take some photographs. With tonight looking the right side of marginal, this is likely to be the best snow event of the 00's. Lovely!
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Today's Weather And General Chat
Just Before Dawn replied to sunny scunny's topic in Weather reports
Calm and clear, though with cloud cover building steadily to our north-east. -1.3c -
Just me then I guess. Had about a centimetre of fresh snow since about 10pm - met O radar showing convection still taking place in the North Sea with showers coming ashore across eastern Lincs, though they are fairly light and with the slack flow not penetrating too far inland. Still potentially a cou[le of cm more to come tonight if the convection train keeps running.
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It appears that the wind is now only slighly east of north, so I guess that might be the case, however look to the north - the met O radar has a line of showers running almost east-west offshore between Newcastle and Edinburgh - that's just appeared in the last half-hour or so. Given the wind direction, and the fifty-odd mile sea track it has to make landfall, you're pretty well placed for that. It almost looks like a classic lake-effect precipitation band that you see coming off Lake Superior! Might take a while to reach you though.
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It's amazing how precip can moderate what the books tell you is not a likely scenario for snow! Meteox radar suggesting that the shower activity just to your east is continuing to beef up a little - is it snowing in Hull at the mo? If not, It can't be long before that reaches you. Yust had a look at the Met radar and there's a cracking line of showers appeared running NE-SW off Newcastle that have a fifty mile sea track to strengthen before hitting East Yorkshire - Looks like a classic lake-effect precipitation band.
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It's entirely possible, and it's worth noting that both UKMO and ECM look less marginal than the 18z GFS, so it's by no means a given that tomorrow night will be the wrong side of marginal, even in the east. Agree about SSTs, wind direction means no air moderation, but it will keep ground temps slightly raised in areas within a couple of km from the coast - however the progged heavier ppn should cancel that out. Out of our patch, but I've a mate in Wisbech, Cambs and he rang me up earlier to say he needs another inch of snow to get the best depths he's had since the winter of 1996. He's been in the firing line for what looks like a decent Wash streamer for the last two hours, so it goes to show what a remarkable event this is turning out to be. And it's still December.
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It certainly isn't an outlier, but it is on the milder side of the ensembles - control run goes even milder, but there is divergence, even at this range, so still all up in the air. Iffy dew points and high SSTs don't help, existing cold ground temps and heavier precipitation does - might just be OK away from the immediate coastal fringe. On the model front, the synoptics are all over the place with wild divergence on the pressure ensembles from t+72 hours. It's almost impossible to call much beyond Monday at the moment. Pity whoever is doing Country File on Sunday!
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True - dew points not immediately favourable, but they do get better as the front crosses our area and the 18z does continue with the theme of the heavier precipitation on the eastern side of the pennines, in which case that might help keep things on the right side of marginal given lower ground temps and lying snow will offsset the slightly warmer uppers - I think it might be sleet/wintery mix with back edge snow, particularly over higher ground and in the heavier precipitation.
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Well Louth had a bit of snow today, but pretty much a two or three hour window of showers - nothing special really but probably better than I'd expected, however I popped down to the Old Man's place today, on the other edge of the Lincs Wolds down in the Spilsby area for anyone who knows it and they've had a fair bit - 2-3 inches at a guess. I took some photos, which I'll post up in a little while. He's about 12 miles from me, so that gives you some idea of how local conditions can have a big impact on where snow falls.
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Man, this is so tough - short light shower and it's clear again - radar offers some hope for later on, but it's a shame we don't have anyone posting from Holbeach or Spalding - they look well placed on the northern main snow band in the south east. It seems to be edging North East slightly too - if it hits Boston in the next half hour or so, then it might just be game on for my location.