Just Before Dawn

Looks about right, TETIS - coincides with a 6m tide - force 8-9 northerlies could see that over 8 metres - not hugely risky, but pretty impressive for August. fortunately the wind, rain and tides seem to be choregraphed in such a way as to make tidal locking less likely, which may help alleviate any local flooding problems.

Whoa! Thanks for that! If that verifies then that suggests that rainfall figures will be lower than June 2007, but roughly the same ball park for the Lincs Wolds - 2007 we had accumulated 24 hour rainfall of around 80mm, that diagram does suggest that parts of eastern Lincs could see 60-70mm. That's close enough to be a little alarming. Still, lets see if that verifies, it certainly doesn't accord with the Met Office warnings.

Flooding is about more than just rain - Sunday morning for example looks like there could certainly be potential issues with abnormally high tides thanks to an E or NE wind in the S North Sea of 20-30 knots on the back of a 7m+ tide means the potential for tidal locking on the east coast around high tide - something to look for, especially north of the Thames Estuary and south of The Wash.

I flew back from Tashkent on Thursday hoping for a bit more of a springlike feel to the weather - Week before last the temperature in the desert got down to a chilly -19c, but it's still snowing here in Louth as I type, with perhaps 3cm of lying snow. Next week is looking potentially very interesting, but a bit knife-edge!

That's right John, they then share the outputs with Drainage Authorities and, based on experience and topography, make a flood risk determination.

I'm in Nottingham today, and the Journey from Louth was absolutely appalling, with drizzle freezing on contact with almost everything. Nottingham is a death trap this morning, littered with minor accidents.

It's a complex situation though temps are crucial, as is the issue of frozen ground, which has a lower capacity to absorb surface water run-off. One to keep an eye on certainly.

Rapid onset thaw here too LO. I guess the main threat now is a freeze. It's sopping wet here now.

We'll see. 06z gfs run is better for sure. This one is a now-caster.

Or it could be that the South East was the area that they were most concerned about and don't yet know how far north and west the Precipitation will reach? Potentially we could see a fair bit of snow, or the precipitation might not get this far north. If they issue warnings for this area and it never gets here they're slaughtered, and if it does get here and they issue warnings at the last minute, they're slaughtered. Who'd be a weather forecaster? And I'd be astonished if anywhere in this area gets the snow that The Chilterns get, or the North Downs.

Decent dusting again over night with perhaps a fresh 2cm of snow and the radar is looking good for the next hour or two.

It's done that repeatedly to us over here over the last two days.

Decent snow overnight but nothing today with a partial thaw in the sun. We reached the heady heights of 2.8c at one point early this afternoon. I have sympathy with the Grimsby contingent - it's so galling to see the snow to our north, particularly as this event post Christmas so far has been disappointing for snow in Lincolnshire compared to surrounding counties. We might fare batter when the winds back to a more easterly, but given our recent luck, I'm not hugely optimistic.

Well they didn't miss Lincolnshire - we had an inch of snow last night and I'm 15 miles south of you. My dad is 15 miles south of me and he had two and a half inches of snow last night.

Perhaps 2cm of snow falling overnight, which is nice and with the wind moving round to a more easterly direction, looks good for here today.

We're in the midst of a heavy, prolonged snow shower here in Lincoln which has covered the roads, which were previously clear.

Hi Mackerel. I guess if any of our resident south Lincs contributors start reporting snow, then you've got a fighting chance. For what it's worth, it's snowing here in Louth at present.

No it won't, but it is a potentially concerning feature in the 24 hours if the wind really does back. there's a 6.5m tide forecast for the lincolnshire coast - 35mph NE winds (on-shore) can lift a tide 2m -8.5m tides are the point at which people like me who work in flood risk management start to get a bit twitchy. No likely effect on snowfall, but potentially something to keep half an eye on, especially if the lp centre moves further west than progged. Fortunately, it's fairly benign in low pressure terms, and it's forming inquite a southerly location in the North Sea basin, so no chance of surface water forcing ahead of the low which is what creates storm surge tides. Might make for some good photography though, if you're in the area and have 19 layers of clothes on! Yes, the precipitation should come a fair way inland tomorrow, though the airflow and wind speed on Friday Night and Saturday look more favourable for dragging snow further inland. I thought you were asking whether they LP system itself would come inland.

It probably won't - As Lewis said (and as recent experience has shown) these features are a sod to accurately forecast - for what it's worth, the 18z GFS operational has it tracking more or less due south down the north sea tomorrow bringing near gale NNE to parts of the East Yorkshire and Lincolnshire coast. Fortunately it's not a particularly deep low and the tides are not progged to be very high, as winds in that direction can be problematic in terms of over-topping of coastal defences. Wouldn't surprise me if tomorrow morning's High Tide comes close to 8 metres, somewhere like Mablethorpe or Saltfleet on the Lincs Coast. With the wind and potentially some sleet/snow, tomorrow might be quite a wild one. We then get another windy and potentially difficult period Friday and into Saturday.

Light snow showers this evening, but very cold -4c and feeling a lot colder in the breeze.

Yes, a very positive forecast for us for the next few days, and underlined what Keeley Donovan said on Radio Lincs this evening - frequent heavy snow showers over the next few days, penetrating a fair way inland and accompanied by a strong E or NE wind. She specifically warned of significant drifting over the Wolds and blizzard conditions in the heavier showers. The wind is already getting up, there was drifting snow on the A157 between Wragby and Louth coming home this evening.

It's snowing here in Lincoln!

Well, after a disappointing day yesterday, overnight provided a very impressive amount of snowfall in Louth - I would think around 3-4cm (I know, not that impressive in national terms but better than I expected.) Thursday forecast is a bit puzzling - last night it looked bad, this morning it's being forecast as a few light snow flurries.EDIT - ah - I see Lewis' post above. That might explain it! To be fair, Friday, Saturday and Sunday all looked better, so it might just be the sort of short-term changes these spells of weather always produce.

Well I've found the part of the region with literally no snow. Conditions here in Louth are pathetic really - wet, no snow and I'm sure it must be as snow-free on the Coast. What was it? Warm sector? Either way, very disappointing.

Just as I'm about to leave Lincoln, we finally get some decent snowfall, with snow now settling readily - just popped out to the car park and the depth is now 32mm!!! Off for a drive home over the Wolds now! Looking at the radar, it looks like the southern edge of the front is now starting to slip south just a little, with more extensive, if light ppn over the northern half of Lincs. As Lewis has said, the North East flow is now starting to assert itself north of the Humber - potentially interesting evening ahead.