Just Before Dawn

Less marginal for coastal situations I would say, the 12z GFS. Still likely to be a wintery mix right on the coast, but looks OK 5-10 miles inland, and PPN looks heavy enough over the eastern part of the region to mean that even coastal areas will get some snow. We had some N Sea temp modification today, but all our ppn fell as snow or graupel - and it was extremely light.

Just had a brief graupel shower - indicative of the North Sea warming effect, even 15 miles inland, it's a moderating effect. Temps here just above freezing (0.5c, dew is 0.2c). Definately overcast, with obvious shower activity to our east.

It's chucking it down here now too - about a cm of new snow and no sign of it stopping.

Just driven from Cleethorpes to home just outside Louth, and it's light snow, a dusting really. Still, there's a lot of front still to move through so actually pretty pleased, as I wasn't sure it would get this far.

That's harsh! Some of the charts - UKMO for example, keep the band intact across the whole region, and even if the band does downgrade, it's one element of a complex situation - the GFS for example generates a stronger easterly flow, so better convection penetrating further inland.

I wouldn't want it to arrive much earlier from a selfish point of view - I'm off to see Django Unchained on Friday afternoon!

A couple of things to remember - it's still early days yet, and with these frontal events it's almost impossible to establish how far east the front will penetrate - the Met O warningsare general guidance, it's entirely possible that the front doesn't get as far east, or gets 60 miles further east than the amber warning indicates. Given that the cold air block isn't well established yet, it wouldn't surprise me if the amber alert isn't extended east at least to include a larger chunk of West Yorkshire, but that may not happen until the event is in progress. Certainly as progged dew points and thicknesses won't be an issue for us. As for Blizzard conditions - meteorologically defined blizzards are pretty uncommon in lowland England BUT the 06z GFS did suggest the possibility of them over higher ground - parts of the Dales and Pennines. The last genuine blizzard I can remember in my neck of the woods was in '79, so that gives some indication of how unusual they are in lowland england. My mate lived in Upper Teesdale in the early 80's and he had them three winters in a row, so high up, you've more of a chance. There's some talk on the model thread of 'white out' conditions - which I think is a bit Rampy - white outs are blizzards so severe that you can't locate the horizon - I've been in two white outs in my entire life, and one of those was on Antarctica! They are genuinely terrifying!

Low overnight here of -5.3C, and I'm expecting it to be colder tonight, given that we had freezing fog when I left for work this morning. Asfor the weekend fun and games, I'd be surprised if at least the western half of the region didn't get some snow out of the frontal band on Friday. Whether it gets as far as the North Sea coast is another matter, and I suspect if it did, it would be light and patchy by the time it got to East Yorkshire and Lincolnshire.

The 12Z GFS has something for everyone - the main front may not make it all the way across to the East Coast, but is certainly very promising for Western and central parts of the region with some potentially decent falls over the western Pennines, then as Mark has suggested, a stronger easterly flow establishes over the weekend resulting in snow showers for the east, penetrating well inland. It'll all be different by 10:30 tonight, of course!

Indeed, the path of the LP and associated fronts are critical in terms of whether the front and any associated ppn can cross the whole country.

The local weather forecast this morning was certainly more bullish about snow showers than they were yesterday for today - seems they're satisfied that the easterly flow will be more sustained today than they thought yesterday. Another 1cm of snow over the Lincs Wolds overnight, and it was very tricky driving over them to get to work today. further snow showers forecast could make the commute home tonight even more of a challenge than last night. Half an eye on the various model outputs for the weekend too - where that low goes and how deep it gets has major implications.

The front has slowed, but I'm not sure about the pivot - doesn't look like it will be significant enough to keep he snow going for that length of time. Showers developing on the back of the post-front easterly flow would be my best bet.

It's still coming down in Lincoln, and now even the main road outside the office is covered, though it has become finer flakes in the last 15 minutes, and I suspect we're getting towards the back edge of the ppn.

It's really bucketing it down now here in Lincoln and has been for the last hour. It's just starting to cover the side roads and pavements, though the main road outside the office is still clear. Dew points look OK and the front won't clear us here for a couple of hours yet, so should be looking at some decent totals by 6pm

Now snowing in Lincoln - very light at present, but having just seen the update Met O alert here in the office, I suspect it won't stay light for long.

Yep, and continue to slow as it moves south - that was reflected in the location of the amber warnings. I don't see anything to suggest that it will behave much differently. Interesting drive to work this morning. I live just outside Louth and work in Lincoln, there was snow on the A157 across the higher part of the route and a bit of blowing snow on the exposed section between Hainton and Burgh on Bain, which doesn't bode well for this evening's return journey, as well as rather more snow than I was expecting last night.

Just snizzle here really, with nothing significant to report - though Dews and temps are OK, just seems that either the main ppn hasn't made it this far yet, or it's fragmenting a bit now.

Yeah it is! Cheers Vizzy. Glasses on!

Woah! Some serious ppn totals there! *Edited* because I can't read! still, 13, 14 or 15 cm would be the best snow here since Dec 2010.

After a short lull, it's just starting up here again. Slight covering on cars, but just too wet on other surfaces.

Moderate snow falling here now, though earlier rain means it's not settling.

A few wet flakes here, but mainly light rain. A mate further inland and higher in The Wolds says they've got light snow there though.

Convective showers now forming up in the N Sea as the eastern flow starts to get established. Should start hitting the Lincs coast in the next 15-20 minutes. Dunno how far inland they'll penetrate, but the ones further north are getting a fair way inland, so might be worth keeping an eye out if you're in Lincs or North Notts.

Latest NAE charts for the overnight Sunday into Monday event make good reading for much of the midlands. Second snow band is outside the NAE window, but stays as snow on the GFS, especially in the east, so favoured areas over high ground in parts of the East Midlands could have some decent accumulations by Tuesday morning.

I tend to post more in the Midlands thread, and assume this one is more for North and North East Lincolnshire folk.