Just Before Dawn

Where water courses drain into the sea, they usually only drain water when the tide is going out, out or on the turn. Very high tides mean that these water courses can't drain water for as long, so water tends to back up in them as it moves downstream. It's usually an issue in periods of very high rainfall or very high tides. It often results in some rivers bursting their banks because there's nowhere else for the water to go.

It's looking pretty grim for areas in the west and south for tomorrow - we're in a period of spring tides now until the 6th January, so alongside the coastal risk, there's also risks around tidal locking of watercourses if we see significant rainfall over the next three or four days.

Yep. Next concern for the areas N of The Wash is to assess the state of flood defences before tomorrow's high tides, which will still be Spring tides, so still high. I'm out again at 4am!

Phew! Glad you're safe topher.

OK - I think they're using Kirmington as a base of operations for flooding incidents in the Humber area, rather than Kirmington itself flooding.

Lincolnshire Police have categorised the flooding situation in the centre of the Boston as 'life threatening'. I do hope Topher has evacuated safely.

That's a surprise - well inland and the drains there aren't tidal as far as I'm aware.

Just back from the Lincolnshire Coast between Mablethorpe and Cleethorpes. It's the worst high tide storm surge I've seen since 1979 and the level of flooding in Boston, Huttoft, Cleethorpes and Skegness suggests that this event is going to pose a major threat to communities in East Anglia and the South East.

What they are saying is that tides are high anyway (4.12m above ordnance datum - sea level to all intents and purposes) but that the surge levels will be a metre above that or 25% higher than an already pretty high tide. I don't know the height of the flood defences are where you live, or how far you are from the flood banks, but if you are in a severe flood warning area, you need to be ready to follow the advice of the emergency services. You've got a good few hours to prepare though note that tide can peak two hours before scheduled high tide in circumstances like these) and You should identify and collect your most valuable possessions and start to think about who you might stay with, should you be asked to evacuate. PM me if you want more detail.

I don't think there's much doubt that the tide heights tonight will be higher than 2007. We topped out at about 8.5 metres in 07, we could see 9.5 tonight.For those with a smartphone or tablet, and who are struggling to access the EA website, there's an app called flood alert that does the same job. If you add your postcode, your phone or tablet will alert you if a flood warning is issued or your flood risk changes. It's free as well.

Just been on a Conference Call with our local EA staff. The scale of the surge will be comparable with 1953. They are growing more confident in that now. Doesn't mean the damage will be as bad because flood defences are much better, but it is a substantial threat to life and property in low lying areas of the East Coast, though Norfolk, Suffolk and Essex look at greatest risk. With a surge height of +2-3m above predicted high tide, that will make the tide height where I'll be tonight well over 9 metres, which is as high as I've seen it in 30 years.

Topher, if you need to be evacuated, the Police or Boston Borough Council will come to your house and tell you, so don't worry about that. At the moment I think it's unlikely given where you are, but not impossible if things take a turn for the worse through the afternoon. I went to college in Boston, so I know where you are, you're a distance away from the Haven and South 40 foot drain, and on slightly higher ground, so you should be OK, but with the current situation still uncertain, keep following the flood warnings for Boston, and take sensible precautions, which it sounds like you are doing.

OK. You are under a flood warning at the moment, though you're far enough away from The Haven for impacts to be unlikely I would guess, still as a course of least regret, I would at the very least make sure that you're keeping a very close eye on the flood warnings on the EA website, and following the advice they give on there. This is a fluid situation, and flood warnings may be updated at any point. If the flood warning gets upgraded to a Severe Flood Warning, you should be contacted either by the automated flood warning line or by the Police.

whereabouts in town are you Topher?

hi Topher.Stay close to a source of flood warning information. I think the risk in Boston is more related to seepage through flood defences rather than overtopping or breaches, and they tend to be a risk to those immediately behind them. That said, we don't know yet how high the high tide is likely to be, so keep checking the EA flood pages on their website. If your property is at risk, you'll hear from the police or from Boston Borough Council about evacuation. If you're on the Witham upstream from the flood barrier at The sluice, you should be OK.We're due another briefing from the EA in around an hour, I'm expecting it to be pretty sobering.

There is certainly an increasing chance of the North Sea tidal surge causing some fairly significant overtopping issues on Low-lying parts of Eastern Coasts. Lots of talk about 1953, but it's worth remembering that Flood defences are much better now than they were then. The Flood Forecasting Centre will be updating their forecast any time now, but from the data I've seen, 2-2.5m above projected high tides widely along the East Coast. In my patch that means a high tide this evening of well over 9 metres, and that's high enough to be of real concern.

Play suspended and fans being moved to safe areas of Soldier Field in the NFL game between the Baltimore Ravens and the Chicago Bears.

Now 6 tornado warnings in place from NE Missouri all the way to the outskirts of the Chicago Metro. Tornado watch extended east now into Ohio and Western Kentucky.

Four Tornado warnings across central Illinois - from the Missouri border north to Pontiac and Peru. The one north of Pontiac looks like it's heading right towards the Chicago Metro area.

1300z SPC Day One outlook update has slightly increased the high risk area to include a larger part of Illinois, Ohio and Michigan, including the Metro areas of Chicago, Dayton, Fort Wayne and Lansing.

I note that the NWS is predicting a severe weather event this afternoon for parts of Illinois, Indiana and Michigan, including the Indianapolis Metro. They also predict that the event may extend east and south into Ohio and Kentucky later on. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html Storms, straight-line winds, hail and tornadoes are the main risks. SPC updating their Day One forecast in 20 minutes - we may then see a PDS watch issued later this afternoon.

I'll be out at North Somercotes from about 10am tomorrow - I'll let you know.

The Environment Agency use Telemetry Data to know how much water there is in their main water courses, and with the forecast rainfall, it's relatively straightforward for them to estimate the extra capacity they have and the volume they'll need to cope with the rainfall. They can then identify which areas are at risk before the rain comes. Interestingly, some of the alerts are for coastal areas, including all of Coastal Dorset and Chichester Harbour. The risk here is identified as high waves over-topping coastal defences.

Potentially very windy off East Anglian first thing tomorrow according to the 12z NAE. Also could be some impressive wave heights somewhere like Cley or Blakeney Bar.

Yes there are and it's something we are watching closely. That said, a shorter duration event (if that's what this turns out to be) is no bad thing either from a flood risk point of view.We'll still be out today checking culverts and water control structures, but from a Nimby perspective, the potential change in track of the low (it's now projected to move east almost directly over us) means we're less concerned about blown debris blocking watercourses, which is usually what creates problems for us moving high volumes of water. We're still watching things closely, though.