Just Before Dawn

And, of course, almost all of Lincolnshire.

Looks like we might get a second round this weekend.....

Back at Saltfleetby today and the key feature is the wind strength, we’ve had sustained wind speeds of over 45mph for the last two hours with our highest gust of 57mph. It’s painfully cold out there today, so of course there’s a flood alert for the coast this evening. Working that is going to be tough.

Pretty wild day with very impressive drifting. Photo below taken alongside the B1200 between Manby and Saltfleetby where visibility was about 10 feet in places.

Three inches or so on the Lincs Coast today, now dry but extensive drifting in the strong easterly. It’s absolutely perishing in the wind and drifting snow is making travel on the coast road very tricky north of Mablethorpe.

About three inches fell overnight in Louth, which will make my drive out to Saltfleetby this morning fun and games, but it's certainly the deepest snow we've had since 2013. Looking at the radar, It looks like it's going to be a tricky old day...

Light dusting overnight here, which makes this a very disappointing spell so far for us, given the Synoptics.

Light dusting here this morning, and flurries on and off for the last hour.

It's the former - you can track the ppn on the 18z GFS run and it now looks like it's heading more SE rather than SSE, if it verifies that way, of course. It also looks slightly more extensive, thankfully for us.

I've got to say, if you're sitting on the North York Moors or in The Wolds right now (Lincolnshire or Yorkshire), I think the next week will be pretty memorable.

Included in the Amber snow warning for Tuesday. It’ll be cold enough for snow, even right on the coast.

The Met Office warning system is based on impact and probability and at the moment that puts the Amber warning where it is based on the Euro 4 output, but it’s still a model, it isn’t a guarantee. When Amber Warnings have been issued in the past they’ve changed, moved, grown and shrunk often within hours notice. Hardly good reason to throw a wobbly - I’ll bet it changes, probably more than once before the event.

Yeah, that feature could be a winner if you live in Yorkshire - though it does do a weird split for some reason - so that's something to watch for. Lapse rates look quite impressive for Tuesday, particularly along the coast - real possibility of Thundersnow for us and helpful in keeping the showers going well inland.

It's certainly pretty ratty in there this morning. Not an issue for us anywhere in the patch, in fact if that 6z run verifies, it might make Friday a blizzard for some parts of the region - easterlies gusting to 30-35 mph and snow all day.

Oh Yes. Wash Streamer in full effect, right the way across to the Welsh Border by 6am Monday according to Euro 4.

Lovely, crisp late Winter's day out there today, but it's raw in the wind, and it's only going to get colder. I've re-arranged my meeting in the office at Lincoln from Wednesday to Monday, as I'm not fancying driving over The Wolds home on Wednesday night if I'm honest.

It’s not a public weather warning, it’s a met briefing for public service providers.

We were cut off for about 5 days in 1991 - you could sledge down middle of the A16 at East Keal at 4 in the afternoon. I remember walking three miles into Spilsby to pick up someone’s prescription and the drifts making it difficult to pick out the route of the road. The latest UKMO is astonishing. People throw the words ‘blizzard’ and ‘whiteout’ around on here without really knowing what either mean, but the UKMO produces a run that might generate blizzard conditions for us - I can’t remember The last time we had a genuine blizzard here. Certainly not since the early 90’s I’d guess.

One of the positives of this being so late in the season is that the slightly increased energy of the sun can keep convection going even inland. Relative humidity won’t be a problem with an airmass that recently travelled over a big body of water, so provided the lapse rates stay steep, even inland parts could see some pretty beefy snow showers.

Yeah, it looks like early next week will feel properly raw on the coast - pretty fresh easterly breeze If the models to date are accurate. I work up the coast a bit and I’m expecting to be able to photo a snowy beach on Monday or Tuesday

Wow this thread is quiet given the Synoptics the models are throwing out at the moment. Perhaps it fear of it all disappearing at the last minute. I’ve done Lincolnshire winters since 78-79 and this up-coming spell, if it verifies, looks the most potentially disruptive since 1991 at least for our part of Lincs. Norfolk might be even better placed.

Ha! Nice! I pulled the short straw so I’m the designated driver. That’ll be nice, though my bank manager will be pleased. Last trip down was a financially painful one. At least it looks like the real weather fun and games will kick off after I get home on Sunday night.

Pressure on us? We lose on Sunday and we’ve got 3 more realistic trophy chances, you lose and it’s the Europa or bust. I’ll take us in that scenario every time. I’ll wave at you from the other side of Wembley though and you’re right about the cup final experience. Nothing like it. Part of me wants it dry and not snowmageddon so the drive home isn’t Holiday on Ice, but then the other part of me.......

Might well be, though Sunday into next week is probably more promising, which would be right as I’ll be driving to Wembley and back on Sunday...

Just had a brief hail shower in Louth. It’s very chilly with a brisk NE wind - be interesting to see how things go this afternoon.