ChartViewer
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Posts posted by ChartViewer
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Unfortunately no agreement, as for upgrades or downgrades hard to say as we don't even know which is the correct view of things, at the moment I'd bin the GFS 12hrs run , at worst some ECM/UKMO hybrid might be a sensible way of looking at things but still a few more runs needed. This is turning into the Da Vinci Code!
Nick the Da Vinci code doesn't come close to unravelling the GFS/ECM/UKM/CMA saga
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Random images, speaking of him, where is he?
Random synoptics proving anything CAN and DOES happen. Agreed so can most coldies take your comment on board lol
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Hi BA
Something like this maybe in the picture ??
Or this come on
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Gtltw, i am a supporter of the gefs in general but only when they are consistent with the pattern they are showing. currently, i dont think thats the case.And cv, i absolutely dont see zonality as the favourite for mid dec. i would say its 50/50 between a mlb and a scandi ridge. It could end up a sceuro block.
Because of pressure rises on Scandi 500 charts BA?
Me with a pv raging and nothing showing ill go with zonal for Dec but its tough to call.
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Yes but that is an average once again - when there is a broad spread, the mean tends to default to average. But if one of the colder ensemble runs were to be closer to the correct value, then the ensembles could change at a later date. Equally the same applies to a milder ensemble run. Always value the mean for what it is - an average.
I Don't really view ensembles that well tbh...I prefer ops
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With regards to the ECM ensemble, I think it's worth bearing in mind that the shifting of the cold air at 192 will be down to many of the members removing it early, whilst many may continue the cold much later, as is always the case with ensembles. By the way Summer Sun I hope you realise I am not criticising your analysis, I am just drawing attention to the fact that it is only a mean of the ensembles and so must not be taken at face value
But have you studied the following
10-15 height anomaly - Heights flattened and sunk suggesting zonal
Jet more Zonal west to east
PV Strong
Heights over Europe building
I certainly don't want this but it is what is shown.
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That crystal ball of yours going strong then?
No its what the polar vortex strength, gfs, jet, anomaly charts suggest so im going by them
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Tbh Crewe, I reckon more. Will see the extended later but is suspect the London extended t maxes will revert more to their clustered continental look later.And cv, whilst the 00z extended ens were less then exciting for coldies, this did go against recent trends so I wouldn't want to make a mid dec call as yet.
Accepted BA but come on 95% of signals do not show M/HLB and if that happens mid Dec is going to be zonal to cool...People need to know Mid range for most of UK isn't going to be 2010...I love deep cold snow....However it isn't going to happen in Mid range for much of UK as many want.
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Looking at the day 10 ensemble mean, I'd say as much as 30% of the ensembles will show an easterly
However we wont experience any Easterly this side of Xmas and deep down we all know it
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Anyone seen all 5 series?....WIRE obviously
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Ian, I know that mogreps runs at 18km for 48 hours ahead but do you know what the resolution of mogreps-15 is?I did say that 00z naefs was zonal longer term. Doubt the 12z would be much different, looking at the 12z gefs!
I totally agree ba...everything points to a disappointing mid December whatever chart you look at....unfortunately
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Anomaly charts look poor for any sustained mid to hlb...Yes computer generated tonight but doesn't look pretty
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Most of your posts are one liners with no model input .
Do you think the high pressure will flatten ala GFS (one or two day cold spell)or ridge further north ecm(three or four day cold spell)?
95% flatten....Oh im not ABNS....But it will flatten given the strength of the PV
...not really what I want to see. But flatten after a 4 cold day snap...hardly memorable. -
When the Chinese come out to play you know the GFS USA merchants begin to panic
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I love reading the writing of the NOAA as the fact that everything is in capital letters makes it seem so much more urgent and official for some reason. Excellent news. We are within a timeframe now where many of the changes upstream are already beginning to happen, so it is reassuring to have that sort of guidance being issued.
Lets hope Tamara doesn't view NOAA's capital letters....Only joking T
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Still retaining cold uppers at T168
BRRRRRRRRRRRR...Lovely start to Winter
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Differences to the GFS at 96 hrs. If it sticks to its 0z idea at 120 hrs then I'm backing the ECM and its extra resolution all the way.
Unless that extra resolution recently upgraded I believe, is taking it down the garden path...Lets hope not!
Maybe not!
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Oh I would have used it ......but not for doing the ironing (I've just warned mr P not to buy me an iron or any domestic appliances/ kitchen equipment for Chringlemas) lol
Evening all - just about recovered from last night....it was sunny earlier but at the time I was struggling to keep my eyes open !
How about an ironing board instead
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I know its GFS and its FI but the strength of the vortex, causing a very strong jet streak and the anomaly forecasts (and they are just that) make me fear for anything sustained after next weekend cold snap. Mid December at moment looks un interesting to me if your looking for a lovely snowy seasonal output that is prolonged. (and I am!)
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I try not to 'back' any model, WW...If I interpret things wrongly, then so-be-it...Taking all of the models, in a kind of 'mental mush', it looks like we're in for a two-, perhaps three-day, blast of Arctic air...? Enjoy!
Im backing the CMA...Sorry couldn't resist ABNS
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Not really seeing the optimism for a longer protracted spell of cold to be honest as much as I would like it. ECM shows a 4 day cold snap but at 216, 240 you can see a Vortex re forming flatter surpressed and high pressure west/over UK after day 4 of the cold snap.
High pressure to west of us or over us and ties in with anomaly charts.
After the cold northerly we sort of await the next chapter:-)
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I do feel some people in the Strat thread look down on this thread. We are only seeing the models...The 10-14 day outlook shows mlb and possible height rises....
These are against certain Strat posters +NAO low heights for early to mid December....
I do think we get to down on ourselves from the Strat thread when they say +NAO, AO, No strat warming etc............
Height mlb are expected early December and could lead to longer cold spells
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Like the BOM
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Again the 168 interests me..Look at the way the ECM is trying to build heights north
Random synoptics proving anything CAN and DOES happen. 
...not really what I want to see. But flatten after a 4 cold day snap...hardly memorable.
Model Output Discussion - 30th November onwards
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
BA...Tell peeps what that means...that means a milder flow.